• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.101-115
• /
• 2013

This paper examines the application of structural reliability analysis to submarine pressure hulls to clarify the merits of probabilistic approach in respect thereof. Ultimate strength prediction methods which take the inelastic behavior of ring-stiffened cylindrical shells and hemi-spherical shells into account are reviewed. The modeling uncertainties in terms of bias and coefficient of variation for failure prediction methods in current design guidelines are defined by evaluating the compiled experimental data. A simple ultimate strength formulation for ring-stiffened cylinders taking into account the interaction between local and global failure modes and an ultimate strength formula for hemispherical shells which have better accuracy and reliability than current design codes are taken as basis for reliability analysis. The effects of randomness of geometrical and material properties on failure are assessed by a prelimnary study on reference models. By evaluation of sensitivity factors important variables are determined and comparesons are made with conclusions of previous reliability studies.

• Korean Journal of Metals and Materials
• /
• v.48 no.9
• /
• pp.791-797
• /
• 2010

The creep crack growth rate (da/dt) of the Cr-Mo steels tested by pre-crack and the voltage (or resistance) variables were related into fracture parameter (Ct), crack growth coefficient (H), and an exponent (q) in the parts of Base, weld and HAZ. The fracture parameter (Ct) has various variables relating to the specimen and crack shape, applied stress, and creep strain curve. The H and q was inferred by OLS regression (ordinary least square method), and the H values were solved in statistics and probability assessment, which were attained fromPDF's distributions (probability density function). The HAZ part has the highest value of q by OLS regression and the widest distribution of H by PDF of WEIBULL, which means that the crack sensitivity of HAZ should be cautioned against the creep crack growth and failure.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.55 no.6
• /
• pp.1177-1202
• /
• 2015

In this paper, a new intensity measure of earthquakes for probabilistic seismic analysis is presented for skewed highway bridges. Three different cases of skewed bridges with different skew angles ($0^{\circ}$, $30^{\circ}$ and $45^{\circ}$) are considered. Well-known intensity measures (e.g., PGA, $S_a$) are evaluated and critically discussed based on sensitivity analysis: efficiency, practically, proficiency and sufficiency of intensity measures are considered in detail. The analyses demonstrated that the intensity measures have to take into account structural acceleration on a wide range of periods so that a new seismic intensity measure is proposed showing that it has less dispersion compared to others. Since the proposed intensity represents the average value of the $S_a$ (between a lower and upper structural period) it has been called Averaged Spectral Acceleration (ASA). Based on performed incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), the seismic analytical fragility curves of typical skewed highway bridges have been evaluated for different states of damage controlling the low dispersion of the ASA index as well as its proficiency and sufficiency.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.55 no.3
• /
• pp.981-988
• /
• 2023

A seismic event caused an accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, which further resulted in simultaneous accidents at several units. Consequently, this incident has aroused great interest in the safety of nuclear power plants worldwide. A reasonable safety evaluation of such an external event should appropriately consider the correlation between SSCs (structures, systems, and components) and the probability of failure. However, a probabilistic safety assessment in current nuclear industries is performed conservatively, assuming that the failure correlation between SSCs is independent or completely dependent. This is an extreme assumption; a reasonable risk can be calculated, or risk-based decision-making can be conducted only when the appropriate failure correlation between SSCs is considered. Thus, this study analyzed the effect of the failure correlation of SSCs on the safety of the system to realize rational safety assessment and decision-making. Consequently, the impact on the system differs according to the size of the failure probability of the SSCs and the AND and OR conditions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2005.05b
• /
• pp.1199-1203
• /
• 2005

Combined sewer overflows(CSOs) are themselves a significant source of water pollution. Therefore, the control of urban drainage for CSOs reduction and receiving water quality protection is needed. Examples in combined sewer systems include downstream storage facilities that detain runoff during periods of high flow and allow the detained water to be conveyed by an interceptor sewer to a centralized treatment plant during periods of low flow. The design of such facilities as stormwater detention storage is highly dependant on the temporal variability of storage capacity available(which is influenced by the duration of interevent dry periods) as well as the infiltration capacity of soil and recovery of depression storage. As a result, a contiunous approach is required to adequately size such facilities. This study for the continuous long-term analysis of urban dranage system used analytical Probabilistic model based on derived probability distribution theory. As an alternative to the modeling of urban drainage system for planning or screening level analysis of runoff control alternatives, this model have evolved that offer much ease and flexibility in terms of computation while considering long-term meteorology. This study presented rainfall and runoff characteristics or the subject area using analytical Probabilistic model. Runoff characteristics manifasted the unique characteristics of the subject area with the infiltration capacity of soil and recovery of depression storage and was examined appropriately by sensitivity analysis. This study presented the average annual COSs and number of COSs when the interceptor capacity is in the range 3xDWF(dry weather flow). Also, calculated the average annual mass of pollutant lost in CSOs using Event Mean Concentration. Finally, this study presented a dicision of storage volume for CSOs reduction and water quality protection.

• Geotechnical Engineering
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.77-90
• /
• 1993

In the settlement analysis of shallow foundation soil properties, loads and soil strata involve many uncertainties so it is necessary to do analysis of settlement that considers the probabilistic properties of each variable. This study is performed to probabilistic analysis for settlement of shallow foundation consisted of individual footings by using Monte Carlo Method. To consider the uncertainty of variables, both the soil properties and loads are assumed to be normal distribution random variables and get settlement mean and coefficient of variation of individual footing. And the settlement of each individual footing is also assumed to be normal distribution. Settlement of each individual footing which considers the probability of soft soil pockets in soil strata follows Markov process. Then it is performed to do sensitivity analysis which is involved to excess probability of allowable criteria of maxi mum settlement and differential settlement according to varity of each variable. It is thought to be proper that the settlement analysis of shallow foundation should be analyzed considering uncertainty of variables and soil stratum conditions.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.49 no.2
• /
• pp.411-425
• /
• 2017

Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.1068-1074
• /
• 2006

For receiving water quality protection a control systems of urban drainage for CSOs reduction is needed. Examples in combined sewer systems include downstream storage facilities that detain runoff during periods of high flow and allow the detained water to be conveyed by an interceptor sewer to a centralized treatment plant during periods of low flow. The design of such facilities as storm-water detention storage is highly dependant on the temporal variability of storage capacity available as well as the infiltration capacity of soil and recovery of depression storage. For the continuous long-term analysis of urban drainage system this study used analytical probabilistic model based on derived probability distribution theory. As an alternative to the modeling of urban drainage system for planning or screening level analysis of runoff control alternatives, this model has evolved that offers much ease and flexibility in terms of computation while considering long-term meteorology. This study presented rainfall and runoff characteristics of the subject area using analytical probabilistic model. Runoff characteristics manifested the unique characteristics of the subject area with the infiltration capacity of soil and recovery of depression storage and was examined appropriately by sensitivity analysis. This study presented the average annual CSOs, number of CSOs and event mean CSOs for the decision of storage volume.

• Geotechnical Engineering
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.121-140
• /
• 1994

This paper presents the probabilistic model to evaluate the three-dimensional stability of layered deposits and c-0 soil slopes. Rotational slides are assumed with a cylindroid control part terminated with plane ends. And the potential failure surfaces in this study are assumed with the logarithmic spiral curve refracted at boundary of layers. This model takes into consideration the spatial variabilities of soil properties and the uncertainties stemming from insufficient number of samples and the discrepancies between laboratory measured and in -situ values of shear strength parameters. From the probabilistic approxi mate method (FOSM and SOSM method), the mean and variance of safety factor are calculated, respectively. And the programs based on above models is developed and a case study is analysed in detail to study the sensitivity of results to variations in different parameters by using the programs developed in this study. On the basis of thin study the following conclusions could be stated : (1) The sensitivity analysis shown that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the angle of internal friction than that of the cohesion, (2) The total 3-D proability of failure and the critical width of failure are significantly affected by total width of slope. It is found that the total 3-D probability of failure and the critical width of failure increase with increasing the slope width when seismic forces do not exist and the total 3-D probability of failure increases with increasing the slope width and the critical width of failure decreases when seismic intensity is relatively large, (3) A decrease in the safety factor (due to effect such as a rise in the mean ground water level, lower shear strength parameters, lower values for the correction factors, etc.) would result in reduction in the critical width of failure.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.103-111
• /
• 2014

In this study, the probabilistic internal pressure fragility analysis was performed by using the non-linear finite element analysis method. The target structure is one of the containment buildings of typical domestic pressurized water reactors(PWRs). The 3-dimensional finite element model of the containment building was developed with considering the large equipment hatches. To consider uncertainties in the material properties and structural capacities, we performed the sensitivity analysis of the ultimate pressure capacity with respect to the variation of four important uncertain parameters. The results of the sensitivity analysis were used to the selection of the probabilistic variables and the determination of their probabilistic parameters. To reflect the present condition of the tendon pre-stressing force, the data of the pre-stressing force acquired from the in-service inspections of tendon forces were used for the determination of the median value. Two failure modes(leak, rupture) were considered and their limit states were defined to assess the internal pressure fragility of target containment building. The internal pressure fragilities for each failure mode were evaluated in terms of median internal pressure capacity, high confidence low probability of failure(HCLPF) capacity, and fragility curves with respect to the confidence levels. The HCLPF capacity was 115.9 psig for leak failure mode, and 125.0 psig for rupture failure mode.