• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.7
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• pp.984-991
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• 2015

This paper presents the methodology for optimal design of power grid for offshore wind power plant (OWPP) and optimum location of offshore substation. The proposed optimization process is based on a genetic algorithm, where the objective cost model is composed of investment, power loss, repair, and reliability cost using the net present value during the whole OWPP life cycle. A probability wind power output is modeled to reflect the characteristics of a wind power plant that produces electricity through wind and to calculate the reliability cost called expected energy not supplied. The main objective is to find the minimum cost for grid connection topology by submarine cables which cannot cross each other. Cable crossing was set as a constraint in the optimization algorithm of grid topology of the wind power plant. On the basis of this method, a case study is conducted to validate the model by simulating a 100-MW OWF.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2015.07a
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• pp.473-474
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• 2015

This paper proposes probabilistic reliability evaluation model of power system considering Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) integrated with Energy Storage System(ESS). Monte carlo sample state duration simulation method is used for the evaluation. The power output from WTG units usually fluctuates randomly. Therefore, the power cannot be counted on to continuously satisfy the system load. Although the power output at any time is not controllable, the power output can be utilized when needed if ESS is available. The ESS may make to smooth the fluctuation of the WTG power output. The detail process of power system reliability evaluation considering Multi-ESS cooperated WTG is presented using case study of Jeju island power system in the paper.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.45-56
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• 2020

The application of critical excitation method with displacement-based objective function for multi degree of freedom (MDOF) systems is investigated. To this end, a new critical excitation method is developed to find the critical input motion of a MDOF system as a synthetic accelerogram. The upper bound of earthquake input energy per unit mass is considered as a new constraint for the problem, and its advantages are discussed. Considering this constraint, the critical excitation method is then used to generate synthetic accelerograms for MDOF models corresponding to three shear buildings of 10, 16, and 22 stories. In order to demonstrate the reliability of generated accelerograms to estimate dynamic response of the structures, three target ground motions with considerable level of energy contents are selected to represent "real critical excitation" of each model, and the method is used to re-generate these ground motions. Afterwards, linear dynamic analyses are conducted using these accelerograms along with the generated critical excitations, to investigate the key parameters of response including maximum displacement, maximum interstory drift, and maximum absolute acceleration of stories. The results show that the generated critical excitations can make an acceptable estimate of the structural behavior compared to the target ground motions. Therefore, the method can be reliably implemented to generate critical excitation of the structure when real one is not available.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.523-538
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• 2017

A series of field vibration tests are conducted on the Runyang Suspension Bridge during both the construction and operational stages. The purpose of this study is devoted to the analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the suspension tower. After the tower was erected, an array of accelerometers was deployed to study the evolution of its modal parameters during the construction process. Dynamic tests were first performed under the freestanding tower condition and then under the tower-cable condition after the superstructure was installed. Based on the identified modal parameters, the effect of the pile-soil-structure interaction on dynamic characteristics of the suspension tower is investigated. Moreover, the stiffness of the pile foundation is successfully identified using a probabilistic finite model updating method. Furthermore, challenges of identifying the dynamic properties of the tower from the coupled responses of the tower-cable system are discussed in detail. It's found that compared with the identified results from the freestanding tower, the longitudinal and torsional natural frequencies of the tower in the tower-cable system have changed significantly, while the lateral mode frequencies change slightly. The identified modal results from measurements by the structural health monitoring system further confirmed that the vibrations of the bridge subsystems (i.e., the tower, the suspended deck and the main cable) are strongly coupled with one another.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.507-521
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• 1996

Quantification of uncertainties in the source term estimations by a large computer code, such as MELCOR and MAAP, is an essential process of the current Probabilistic safety assessment. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the applicability of a combined procedure of the response surface method (RSM) based on input determined from a statistical design and the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique for the uncertainty analysis of CsI release fractions under a Hypothetical severe accident sequence of a station blackout at Younggwang nuclear power plant using MAAP3. OB code as a benchmark problem. On the basis of the results obtained in the present work, the RSM is recommended to be used as a principal tool for an overall uncertainty analysis in source term quantifications, while using the LHS in the calculations of standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and standardized rank regression coefficient (SRRC) to determine the subset of the most important input parameters in the final screening step and to check the cumulative distribution functions obtained by RSM. Verification of the response surface model for its sufficient accuracy is a prerequisite for the reliability of the final results that can be obtained by the combined procedure proposed in the present work.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.619-632
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• 2014

The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method has been widely used to evaluate the uncertainty of a best-estimate thermal hydraulic system code against a figure of merit. This uncertainty is typically evaluated based on the physical model's uncertainties determined by expert judgment. This paper introduces the application of data assimilation methodology to determine the uncertainty bands of the physical models, e.g., the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters, based upon the statistical approach rather than expert judgment. Data assimilation suggests a mathematical methodology for the best estimate bias and the uncertainties of the physical models which optimize the system response following the calibration of model parameters and responses. The mathematical approaches include deterministic and probabilistic methods of data assimilation to solve both linear and nonlinear problems with the a posteriori distribution of parameters derived based on Bayes' theorem. The inverse problem was solved analytically to obtain the mean value and standard deviation of the parameters assuming Gaussian distributions for the parameters and responses, and a sampling method was utilized to illustrate the non-Gaussian a posteriori distributions of parameters. SPACE is used to demonstrate the data assimilation method by determining the bias and the uncertainty bands of the physical models employing Bennett's heated tube test data and Becker's post critical heat flux experimental data. Based on the results of the data assimilation process, the major sources of the modeling uncertainties were identified for further model development.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.259-264
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• 2005

This paper presents a vital area identification (VAI) method based on the current fault tree analysis (FTA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) techniques for the physical protection of nuclear power plants. A structured framework of a top event prevention set analysis (TEPA) application to the VAI of nuclear power plants is also delineated. One of the important processes for physical protection in a nuclear power plant is VAI that is a process for identifying areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components (SSCs) to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to core damage and unacceptable radiological consequences. A software VIP (Vital area Identification Package based on the PSA method) is being developed by KAERI for the VAI of nuclear power plants. Furthermore, the KAERI fault tree solver FTREX (Fault Tree Reliability Evaluation eXpert) is specialized for the VIP to generate the candidates of the vital areas. FTREX can generate numerous MCSs for a huge fault tree with the lowest truncation limit and all possible prevention sets.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.37-46
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• 2005

In the Web environment with a huge amount of information, Web page access patterns for the users visiting certain web site can be diverse and change continually in accordance with the change of its environment. Therefore it is almost impossible to develop and design web sites which fit perfectly for every web user's desire. Adaptive web site was proposed as solution to this problem. In this paper, we will present an effective method that uses a probabilistic model of DTMC(Discrete-Time Markov Chain) for learning user's access patterns and applying these patterns to construct an adaptive web site.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.193-199
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• 2000

In many studies, considerable attention has been focussed upon choosing a model which represents underlying process of time series and forecasting the future. In the real world, however, there may be some cases that one model can not reflect all the characteristics of original time series. Under such circumstances, we may get better performance by combining the forecasts from several models. The most popular methods for combining forecasts involve taking a weighted average of multiple forecasts. But the weights are usually unstable. In cases the assumptions of normality and unbiasedness for forecast errors are satisfied, a Bayesian method can be used for updating the weights. In the real world, however, there are many circumstances the Bayesian method is not appropriate. This paper proposes a PNN(Probabilistic Neural Net) approach as a method for combining forecasts that can be applied when the assumption of normality or unbiasedness for forecast errors is not satisfied. In this paper, PNN method, which is similar to Bayesian approach, is suggested as an updating method of the unstable weights in the combination of the forecasts. The PNN method has been usually used in the field of pattern recognition. Unlike the Bayesian approach, it requires no assumption of a specific prior distribution because it gets probabilities by using the distribution estimated from given data. Empirical results reveal that the PNN method offers superior predictive capabilities.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.469-475
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to integrate reliability analysis into shape optimization problem using the evolutionary structural optimization (ESO) in the application example. Reliability-based shape optimization is formulated as volume minimization problem with probabilistic stress constraint under minimization max. von Mises stress and allow stress. Young's modulus, external load and thickness are considered as uncertain variables. In order to compute reliability index, four methods, i.e., reliability index approach (RIA), performance measure approach (PMA), single-loop singlevector (SLSV) and adaptive-loop (ADL), are used. Reliability-based shape optimization design process is conducted to obtain optimal shape satisfying max. von Mises stress and reliability index constraints with the above four methods, and then each result is compared with respect to numerical stability and computing time.