• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.421-427
• /
• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제71권2호
• /
• pp.165-173
• /
• 2019

This paper investigates the probability of failure of reinforced concrete beams for limit state of collapse for flexure and shear. The influence of randomness of the variables on the failure probability is also examined. The Indian standard code for plain and reinforced concrete IS456:2000 is used for the design of beams. Probabilistic models are developed for flexure and shear according to IS456:2000. The loads considered acting on the beam are live load and dead load only. Random variables associated with the limit state equation such as grade of concrete, grade of steel, live load and dead load are identified. Probability of failure is evaluated based on the limit state equation using First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Importance of the random variables on the limit state equations are observed and the variables are accordingly reduced. The effect of the reduced parameters is checked on the probability of failure. The results show the role of each parameter on the design of beam. Thus, the Indian standard guidelines for plain and reinforced concrete IS456:2000 is investigated with the probabilistic and risk-based analysis and design for a simple beam. The results obtained are also compared with the literature and accordingly some suggestions are made.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
• /
• 제11권1호
• /
• pp.97-118
• /
• 2019

Based on Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (NFEA), this paper focuses on the bi-axial ultimate strength of typical bottom structures under corrosion. On one hand, uniform and not simultaneous corrosion across different structures is introduced, and surrogate models by Gaussian Process (GP) are built for both longitudinal and transverse cases individually, and corresponding probabilistic characteristics are investigated; meanwhile, corrosion effects on interaction between bi-axial stresses at ultimate state are studied. On the other hand, non-uniform localized pitting corrosion of normally distributed circular shapes is introduced, and different pitting corrosion densities are considered; structural bi-axial ultimate strengths under pitting corrosion are studied, and the results are compared with that from equivalent uniform corrosion; the probabilistic characteristics of structural ultimate strength in life cycle are studied; finally, the ultimate strength under randomly distributed pitting corrosion is compared with results from normally distributed pitting and uniform corrosion under various boundary conditions.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제53권4호
• /
• pp.1146-1156
• /
• 2021

Single-unit probabilistic safety assessment (SUPSA) has complex Boolean logic equations for accident sequences. Multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (MUPSA) model is developed by revising and combining SUPSA models in order to reflect plant state combinations (PSCs). These PSCs represent combinations of core damage and non-core damage states of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since all these Boolean logic equations have complemented gates (not gates), it is not easy to generate exact Boolean solutions. Delete-term approximation method (DTAM) has been widely applied for generating approximate minimal cut sets (MCSs) from the complex Boolean logic equations with complemented gates. By applying DTAM, approximate conditional core damage probability (CCDP) has been calculated in SUPSA and MUPSA. It was found that CCDP calculated by DTAM was overestimated when complemented gates have non-rare events. Especially, the CCDP overestimation drastically increases if seismic SUPSA or MUPSA has complemented gates with many non-rare events. The objective of this study is to suggest a new quantification method named probability subtraction method (PSM) that replaces DTAM. The PSM calculates accurate CCDP even when SUPSA or MUPSA has complemented gates with many non-rare events. In this paper, the PSM is explained, and the accuracy of the PSM is validated by its applications to a few MUPSAs.

• 인지과학
• /
• 제17권4호
• /
• pp.303-321
• /
• 2006

본 논문은 의미 중의성 해소에 대한 화자의 직관의 계산 모형에 대한 연구로 Harris (1964)의 '분포가설'에 근거하여 핵심어와 공기하는 어휘들에 대한 분포적 정규성을 포착하는 언어 직관의 계산 모형을 제안한다. 이를 위해 분포적 정규성에 대한 화자의 처리 계산 모형을 파악하기 위하여 심리언어학적 실험을 실시하고 그 결과를 분석한다. 계산 모형으로는 논리 모형, 확률 모형, 그리고 확률 추론 모형의 세가지 모형이 설정되었다. 실험은 두 가지로 구성되었다. 첫 번째는 100만 어절 코퍼스에서 추출된 문장을 화자 직관으로 의미를 식별하는 실험이었다. 이 실험에서는 응답간 일치도가 98%로 나왔다. 두 번째 실험은, 제한된 환경에서 실험자의 반응을 관찰하기 위한 것으로, 분열문이라는 환경을 통해 핵심어와 공기어사이의 의미 관계를 살펴보았다. 또한 100만 어절 코퍼스에서 관찰된 수치와 실험에서 관찰된 관찰치사이의 상관성을 피어슨의 상관계수로 측정하였다. 그러한 측정 결과 실제 코퍼스에서 관찰되는 현상은 논리모형과 상관성이 있었고, 제한된 환경에서 실시한 결과는 확률 모형과 상관성이 있었다. 이 실험결과는 논리 모형이 우선적으로 의미 분류에 관여하나, 만약 논리 모형이 적용되지 않을 경우 확률 모형이 관여함을 보여 준다. 아울러 의미 결정 모형의 관점에서는 논리 모형이 정확하게 직관모형을 예측할 수 있었고, 확률추론 모형도 직관모형을 근사치에 가깝게 예측할 수 있었다.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.17-30
• /
• 1982

This paper offers an optimal artillery deployment scheme for the defending unit when two forces are confronted at a military front line. When proposed gun sites, types and number of guns as well as targets are given, the solutions of the two models in this paper direct each (unit of) guns to a certain location. The aim of the models is to maximize the number of guns which can hit important targets. Unlike widely used target assignment models, these models are formulated using the set covering problem concept. These models do not contain probabilities and time. Thus they are simple as models, easy in implementation, and yield tractable solutions. The dynamic and probabilistic feature of battle situations is implicitly reflected on the models. The first model is for the case that enemies' approaching route is clearly predictable, while the second model is for the unpredictable approaching route case.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제39권2호
• /
• pp.320-328
• /
• 2011

This research proposes comprehensive models for analyzing common cause failures (CCF) due to cumulative shocks and to assess system reliability under the CCF. The proposed cumulative shock models are based on the binomial failure rate (BFR) model. Six kinds of models are proposed so as to explain diverse cumulative shock phenomena. The models are composed of the initial failure probability, shape parameter, and the total shock number. Some parameters of the proposed models can not be explicitly estimated, so we adopt the Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in order to obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the parameters. By estimating the parameters for the cumulative shock models, the system reliability with CCF can be assessed sequentially according to the number of cumulative shocks. The result can be utilizes in dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aging studies, or risk management for nuclear power plants. Replacement or maintenance policies can also be developed based on the proposed model.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국원자력학회 1996년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(2)
• /
• pp.499-504
• /
• 1996

Current Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) techniques are not usually utilized for day-to-day applications in nuclear power plants. The major reason for this anomaly is the complexity of plant models developed for PSA studies and the multitude of resulting fault trees. This impediment can be overcome by the use of simplified plant models. However, oversimplified models usually result in loss of valuable information and therefore. simplification approaches have to be used judiciously in order to achieve accurate and meaningful results. For this reason. development of an appropriate simplification approach must be performed using extreme caution followed with results verification in sequence as well as system levels. If there are no significant differences between the simplified and the original models, the simplified model can be efficiently used in the application of the PSA. This paper presents a methodology for how to develop a suitable simplification technique and the results of its verification for sample systems and sequences. The results show that the utilization of simplified plant models will significantly reduce the number of fault trees with no significant loss of accuracy.

• 한국음향학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국음향학회 1994년도 FIFTH WESTERN PACIFIC REGIONAL ACOUSTICS CONFERENCE SEOUL KOREA
• /
• pp.997-1002
• /
• 1994

Predictive neural network models are powerful speech recognition models based on a nonlinear pattern prediction. Those models can effectively normalize the temporal and spatial variability of speech signals. But those models suffer from poor discrimination between acoustically similar words. In this paper, we propose a discriminative training algorithm for predictive neural network models based on a generalized probabilistic descent (GPD) algorithm and minimum classification error formulation (MCEF). The Evaluation of our training algorithm on ten Korean digits shows its effectiveness by 40% reduction of recognition error.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
• /
• pp.427-432
• /
• 2005

This paper is concerned with a simultaneous design of TSK (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang)-linguistic fuzzy models with uncertain model output and the computationally efficient representation. For this purpose, we use the fundamental idea of linguistic models introduced by Pedrycz and develop their comprehensive design framework. The design process consists of several main phases such as (a) the automatic generation of the linguistic contexts by probabilistic distribution using CDF (conditional density function) and PDF (probability density function) (b) performing context-based fuzzy clustering preserving homogeneity based on the concept of fuzzy granulation (c) augment of bias term to compensate bias error (d) combination of TSK and linguistic context in the consequent part. Finally, we contrast the performance of the enhanced models with other fuzzy models for automobile MPG predication data and coagulant dosing process in a water purification plant.