• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic models

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Life Cycle Cost Analysis at Design Stage of Cable Stayed Bridges based on the Performance Degradation Models (성능저하모델에 기초한 사장교의 설계단계 생애주기비용 분석)

  • Koo, Bon Sung;Han, Sang Hoon;Cho, Choong Yuen
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.2081-2091
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Accordingly, in the 21st century, it is almost obvious that life-cycle cost together with value engineering will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, the most researches have only focused on the Deterministic or Probabilistic LCC analysis approach and general bridge at design stage. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a practical and realistic methodology for the Life-Cycle Cost LCC-effective optimum decision-making based on reliability analysis of bridges at design stage. The proposed updated methodology is based on the concept of Life Cycle Performance(LCP) which is expressed as the sum of present value of expected direct/indirect maintenance costs with expected optimal maintenance scenario. The updated LCC methodology proposed in this study is applied to the optimum design problem of an actual highway bridge with Cable Stayed Bridges. In conclusion, based on the application of the proposed methods to an actual example bridge, it is demonstrated that a updated methodology for performance-based LCC analysis proposed in this thesis, shown applicably in practice as a efficient, practical, process LCC analysis method at design stage.

Influence of Modelling Approaches of Diffusion Coefficients on Atmospheric Dispersion Factors (확산계수의 모델링방법이 대기확산인자에 미치는 영향)

  • Hwang, Won Tae;Kim, Eun Han;Jeong, Hae Sun;Jeong, Hyo Joon;Han, Moon Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2013
  • A diffusion coefficient is an important parameter in the prediction of atmospheric dispersion using a Gaussian plume model, and its modelling approach varies. In this study, dispersion coefficients recommended by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (U. S. NRC's) regulatory guide and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's (CNSC's) regulatory guide, and used in probabilistic accident consequence analysis codes MACCS and MACCS2 have been investigated. Based on the atmospheric dispersion model for a hypothetical accidental release recommended by the U. S. NRC, its influence to atmospheric dispersion factor was discussed. It was found that diffusion coefficients are basically predicted from a Pasquill- Gifford curve, but various curve fitting equations are recommended or used. A lateral dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional spread due to plume meandering in all models, however its modelling approach showed a distinctive difference. Moreover, a vertical dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional plume spread due to surface roughness in all models, except for the U. S. NRC's recommendation. For a specified surface roughness, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences up to approximately 4 times depending on the modelling approach of a dispersion coefficient. For the same model, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences by 2 to 3 times depending on surface roughness.

A Three-Dimensiomal Slope Stability Analysis in Probabilistic Solution (3차원(次元) 사면(斜面) 안정해석(安定解析)에 관한 확률론적(確率論的) 연구(研究))

  • Kim, Young Su
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 1984
  • The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; $P_f=M/N$ N: Total number of trials M: Total number of failures Some of the conclusions derived. from the case study include; 1. Three dimensional factors of safety are generally much higher than 2-D factors of safety. However situations appear to exist where the 3-D factor of safety can be lower than the 2-D factor of safety. 2. The $F_3/F_2$ ratio appears to be quite sensitive to c and ${\phi}$ and to the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope but not to be to the unit weight of soil. 3. From the two models (normal, beta) considered for the distribution of the factor of safety, the beta distribution generally provides lager than normal distribution. 4. Results obtained using the beta and normal models are presented in a nomgraph relating slope height and slop angle to probability of failure.

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Model Development Determining Probabilistic Ramp Merge Capacity Including Forced Merge Type (강제합류 형태를 포함한 확률적 연결로 합류용량 산정 모형 개발)

  • KIM, Sang Gu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2003
  • Over the decades, a lot of studies have dealt with the traffic characteristics and phenomena at a merging area. However, relatively few analytical techniques have been developed to evaluate the traffic flow at the area and, especially, the ramp merging capacity has rarely been. This study focused on the merging behaviors that were characterized by the relationship between the shoulder lane flow and the on-ramp flow, and modeled these behaviors to determine ramp merge capacity by using gap acceptance theory. In the process of building the model, both an ideal mergence and a forced mergence were considered when ramp-merging vehicles entered the gap provided by the flow of the shoulder lane. In addition, the model for the critical gap was proposed because the critical gap was the most influential factor to determine merging capacity in the developed models. The developed models showed that the merging capacity value was on the increase as the critical gap decreased and the shoulder lane volume increased. This study has a meaning of modeling the merging behaviors including the forced merging type to determine ramp merging capacity more precisely. The findings of this study would help analyze traffic phenomena and understand traffic behaviors at a merging area, and might be applicable to decide the primary parameters of on-ramp control by considering the effects of ramp merging flow.

Understanding of Generative Artificial Intelligence Based on Textual Data and Discussion for Its Application in Science Education (텍스트 기반 생성형 인공지능의 이해와 과학교육에서의 활용에 대한 논의)

  • Hunkoog Jho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to explain the key concepts and principles of text-based generative artificial intelligence (AI) that has been receiving increasing interest and utilization, focusing on its application in science education. It also highlights the potential and limitations of utilizing generative AI in science education, providing insights for its implementation and research aspects. Recent advancements in generative AI, predominantly based on transformer models consisting of encoders and decoders, have shown remarkable progress through optimization of reinforcement learning and reward models using human feedback, as well as understanding context. Particularly, it can perform various functions such as writing, summarizing, keyword extraction, evaluation, and feedback based on the ability to understand various user questions and intents. It also offers practical utility in diagnosing learners and structuring educational content based on provided examples by educators. However, it is necessary to examine the concerns regarding the limitations of generative AI, including the potential for conveying inaccurate facts or knowledge, bias resulting from overconfidence, and uncertainties regarding its impact on user attitudes or emotions. Moreover, the responses provided by generative AI are probabilistic based on response data from many individuals, which raises concerns about limiting insightful and innovative thinking that may offer different perspectives or ideas. In light of these considerations, this study provides practical suggestions for the positive utilization of AI in science education.

Clarifying the Meaning of 'Scientific Explanation' for Science Teaching and Learning (과학 학습지도를 위한 '과학적 설명'의 의미 명료화)

  • Jongwon Park;Hye-Gyoung Yoon;Insun Lee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.509-520
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    • 2023
  • Scientific explanation is the main goal of scientists' scientific practice, and the science curriculum also includes developing students' abilities to construct scientific explanations as a major goal. Thus, clarifying its meaning is an important issue in the science education community. In this paper, the researchers identified three perspectives on 'scientific explanation' based on the scoping review method (Deductive-Nomological, Probabilistic, and Pragmatic explanation models). We argued that it is important to clarify and distinguish the meanings of 'scientific explanation' from other concepts used in science education, such as 'description', 'prediction', 'hypothesis', and 'argument' based on a review of the literature. It is also pointed out that there is a difference between 'scientific explanation' as a product and 'explaining scientifically' as communication, and several ways to revise achievement standard statements in the science curriculum are suggested, to guide students to construct scientific explanations and to help students to explain scientifically. By adopting the three scientific explanation models, the important factors to be considered were classified and organized, and examples of science learning activities for scientific explanation considering such factors were suggested. It is hoped that the discussion in this study will help establish clearer learning goals in science learning related to scientific explanation and aid the design of more appropriate learning activities accordingly.

Korean Sentence Generation Using Phoneme-Level LSTM Language Model (한국어 음소 단위 LSTM 언어모델을 이용한 문장 생성)

  • Ahn, SungMahn;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Jaejoon;Yang, Jiheon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2017
  • Language models were originally developed for speech recognition and language processing. Using a set of example sentences, a language model predicts the next word or character based on sequential input data. N-gram models have been widely used but this model cannot model the correlation between the input units efficiently since it is a probabilistic model which are based on the frequency of each unit in the training set. Recently, as the deep learning algorithm has been developed, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model have been widely used for the neural language model (Ahn, 2016; Kim et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016). These models can reflect dependency between the objects that are entered sequentially into the model (Gers and Schmidhuber, 2001; Mikolov et al., 2010; Sundermeyer et al., 2012). In order to learning the neural language model, texts need to be decomposed into words or morphemes. Since, however, a training set of sentences includes a huge number of words or morphemes in general, the size of dictionary is very large and so it increases model complexity. In addition, word-level or morpheme-level models are able to generate vocabularies only which are contained in the training set. Furthermore, with highly morphological languages such as Turkish, Hungarian, Russian, Finnish or Korean, morpheme analyzers have more chance to cause errors in decomposition process (Lankinen et al., 2016). Therefore, this paper proposes a phoneme-level language model for Korean language based on LSTM models. A phoneme such as a vowel or a consonant is the smallest unit that comprises Korean texts. We construct the language model using three or four LSTM layers. Each model was trained using Stochastic Gradient Algorithm and more advanced optimization algorithms such as Adagrad, RMSprop, Adadelta, Adam, Adamax, and Nadam. Simulation study was done with Old Testament texts using a deep learning package Keras based the Theano. After pre-processing the texts, the dataset included 74 of unique characters including vowels, consonants, and punctuation marks. Then we constructed an input vector with 20 consecutive characters and an output with a following 21st character. Finally, total 1,023,411 sets of input-output vectors were included in the dataset and we divided them into training, validation, testsets with proportion 70:15:15. All the simulation were conducted on a system equipped with an Intel Xeon CPU (16 cores) and a NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 GPU. We compared the loss function evaluated for the validation set, the perplexity evaluated for the test set, and the time to be taken for training each model. As a result, all the optimization algorithms but the stochastic gradient algorithm showed similar validation loss and perplexity, which are clearly superior to those of the stochastic gradient algorithm. The stochastic gradient algorithm took the longest time to be trained for both 3- and 4-LSTM models. On average, the 4-LSTM layer model took 69% longer training time than the 3-LSTM layer model. However, the validation loss and perplexity were not improved significantly or became even worse for specific conditions. On the other hand, when comparing the automatically generated sentences, the 4-LSTM layer model tended to generate the sentences which are closer to the natural language than the 3-LSTM model. Although there were slight differences in the completeness of the generated sentences between the models, the sentence generation performance was quite satisfactory in any simulation conditions: they generated only legitimate Korean letters and the use of postposition and the conjugation of verbs were almost perfect in the sense of grammar. The results of this study are expected to be widely used for the processing of Korean language in the field of language processing and speech recognition, which are the basis of artificial intelligence systems.

A Study on the Economic Valuation of the Suncheon Bay Wetland according to the Logit Model (로짓모형에 따른 순천만습지의 경제적 가치평가)

  • Lee, Jeong;Kim, Sa-rang;Kweon, Dae-gon;Jung, Bom-bi;Song, Sung-hwan;Kim, Sun-hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.10-27
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the importance of recognizing the natural environment and the need for its conservation are increasing due to rapid urbanization. Suncheon Bay, designated as Scenic Site No. 41 and one of the World's Five Greatest Coastal Wetlands, is the only tideland among the tidal flats in Korea, which has salt marsh reserves. It has high conservation value from the ecological aspect. In addition to the Suncheon Bay National Garden, it provides various benefits not only to visitors but to local residents as well in terms of economics, environmental issues, and history and cultural aspects. Two million tourists visit the site annually, which has constantly highlighted the limits of ecological capacity. The valuation of the Suncheon Bay wetland is more important for the sustainability of the Suncheon Bay wetland than for its value as a tourism resource for the activation of the local economy. This study used the Logit model, which is commonly used among probabilistic choice models, to evaluate the economic value of Suncheon Bay wetland with the contingent valuation method(CVM). Applying the conservation value of the Suncheon Bay wetland to the benefit of KRW 8,200 for 1 person and 1 day, the benefit from exploration is KRW 2,050, the management and conservation value is KRW 3,034, and the heritage value is KRW 3,116. The results of this study are that benefit from the annual exploration of Suncheon Bay wetland was KRW 44.3 in billion, the management and conservation value was KRW 6.55 in billion, and the heritage value was KRW 6.73 in billion. When converted to the number of paying visitors per year, the conservation value is about KRW 177.1 billion. This study was conducted to evaluate the use and conservation aspects of the economic value of Suncheon Bay wetland. Based on the latent value of the Suncheon Bay wetland, it provides basic data about the efficient management and policy establishment of Suncheon Bay wetland. The study is significant in that the ecological sustainability of the Suncheon bay wetland and the value of non-marketable were evaluated based on the recognition of 'benefit through exploration', 'management and conservation value' and 'value of heritage'. It can be used as policy decision data on the integrated collection of the admission fee of the Suncheon Bay wetland and Suncheon Bay National Garden.

Reliability Analysis on Stability of Armor Units for Foundation Mound of Composite Breakwaters (혼성제 기초 마운드의 피복재 안정성에 대한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Cheol-Eung Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2023
  • Probabilistic and deterministic analyses are implemented for the armor units of rubble foundation mound of composite breakwaters which is needed to protect the upright section against the scour of foundation mounds. By a little modification and incorporation of the previous empirical formulas that has commonly been applied to design the armor units of foundation mound, a new type formula of stability number has been suggested which is capable of taking into account slopes of foundation mounds, damage ratios of armor units, and incident wave numbers. The new proposed formula becomes mathematically identical with the previous empirical formula under the same conditions used in the developing process. Deterministic design have first been carried out to evaluate the minimum weights of armor units for several conditions associated with a typical section of composite breakwater. When the slopes of foundation mound become steepening and the incident wave numbers are increasing, the bigger armor units more than those from the previous empirical formula should be required. The opposite trends however are shown if the damage ratios is much more allowed. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis, which is one of probabilistic models, has been performed in order to quantitatively verify how the armor unit resulted from the deterministic design is stable. It has been confirmed that 1.2% of annual encounter probability of failure has been evaluated under the condition of 1% damage ratio of armor units for the design wave of 50 years return period. By additionally calculating the influence factors of the related random variables on the failure probability due to those uncertainties, it has been found that Hudson's stability coefficient, significant wave height, and water depth above foundation mound have sequentially been given the impacts on failure regardless of the incident wave angles. Finally, sensitivity analysis has been interpreted with respect to the variations of random variables which are implicitly involved in the formula of stability number for armor units of foundation mound. Then, the probability of failure have been rapidly decreased as the water depth above foundation mound are deepening. However, it has been shown that the probability of failure have been increased according as the berm width of foundation mound are widening and wave periods become shortening.

Eye Movements in Understanding Combinatorial Problems (순열 조합 이해 과제에서의 안구 운동 추적 연구)

  • Choi, In Yong;Cho, Han Hyuk
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.635-662
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    • 2016
  • Combinatorics, the basis of probabilistic thinking, is an important area of mathematics and closely linked with other subjects such as informatics and STEAM areas. But combinatorics is one of the most difficult units in school mathematics for leaning and teaching. This study, using the designed combinatorial models and executable expression, aims to analyzes the eye movement of graduate students when they translate the written combinatorial problems to the corresponding executable expression, and examines not only the understanding process of the written combinatorial sentences but also the degree of difficulties depending on the combinatorial semantic structures. The result of the study shows that there are two types of solving process the participants take when they solve the problems : one is to choose the right executable expression by comparing the sentence and the executable expression frequently. The other approach is to find the corresponding executable expression after they derive the suitable mental model by translating the combinatorial sentence. We found the cognitive processing patterns of the participants how they pay attention to words and numbers related to the essential informations hidden in the sentence. Also we found that the student's eyes rest upon the essential combinatorial sentences and executable expressions longer and they perform the complicated cognitive handling process such as comparing the written sentence with executable expressions when they try the problems whose meaning structure is rarely used in the school mathematics. The data of eye movement provide meaningful information for analyzing the cognitive process related to the solving process of the participants.