• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive scenario

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A Prediction and Analysis for Functional Change of Ecosystem in South Korea (생태계 용역가치를 이용한 대한민국 생태계의 기능적 변화 예측 및 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Soo;Park, So-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.114-128
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    • 2013
  • Rapid industrialization and economic growth have led to serious problems including reduced open space, environmental degradation, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl. These problems have been exacerbated by the absence of effective conservation and governance, and have resulted in various social conflicts. In response to these challenges, many scholar and government hope to achieve sustainable development through the establishment and management of environment-friendly planning. For this purpose, we would like to analyze functional change for ecosystem by future land-use/cover changes in South Korea. Toward this goal, we predicted land-use/cover changes from 2010 to 2060 using the future population of Statistics Korea and urban growth probability map created by logistic regression analysis and analyzed ecosystem service value using costanza's coefficient. In the case of scenario 1, ecosystem service value represented 6,783~7,092 million USD. In the case of scenario 2, ecosystem represented 6,775~7,089 million USD, 2.9~7.6 million USD decreased compared by scenario 1. This was the result of area reduction for farmland and wetland which have high environmental value relatively according to urban growth by development point of view. The results of this analysis indicate that environmentally sustainable systems and urban development must be applied to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection. Quantitative analysis of environmental values in accordance with environmental policy can help inform the decisions of policy makers and urban developers. Furthermore, forecasting urban growth based on future demand will provide more precise predictive analysis.

Performance Analysis of Pursuit- Evasion Game Based Guidance Laws (추적-회피 게임 기반 유도법칙의 성능 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Sam;Tahk, Min-Jea;Ryu, Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.36 no.8
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    • pp.747-752
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    • 2008
  • We propose a guidance law based on pursuit-evasion game solutions, and analyze its performance. The game solutions are obtained from the pursuit-evasion game solver developed by Tahk. The initial value of the game solution is used for guidance, and then the pursuit-evasion game is solved again at the next time step. In this respect, the proposed guidance laws are similar to the approach of model predictive control. The proposed guidance method is compared with proportional navigation guidance for a pursuit-evasion scenario, in which the evader always tries to maximize the capture time. According to the comparison, it has larger a capture set than ones of proportional navigation guidance law.

Electric power consumption predictive modeling of an electric propulsion ship considering the marine environment

  • Lim, Chae-og;Park, Byeong-cheol;Lee, Jae-chul;Kim, Eun Soo;Shin, Sung-chul
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.765-781
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    • 2019
  • This study predicts the power consumption of an Electric Propulsion Ship (EPS) in marine environment. The EPS is driven by a propeller rotated by a propulsion motor, and the power consumption of the propeller changes by the marine environment. The propulsion motor consumes the highest percentage of the ships' total power. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the power consumption and determine the power generation capacity and the propeller capacity to design an efficient EPS. This study constructs a power estimation simulator for EPS by using a ship motion model including marine environment and an electric power consumption model. The usage factor that represents the relationship between power consumption and propulsion is applied to the simulator for power prediction. Four marine environment scenarios are set up and the power consumed by the propeller to maintain a constant ship speed according to the marine environment is predicted in each scenario.

Weighted Local Naive Bayes Link Prediction

  • Wu, JieHua;Zhang, GuoJi;Ren, YaZhou;Zhang, XiaYan;Yang, Qiao
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.914-927
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    • 2017
  • Weighted network link prediction is a challenge issue in complex network analysis. Unsupervised methods based on local structure are widely used to handle the predictive task. However, the results are still far from satisfied as major literatures neglect two important points: common neighbors produce different influence on potential links; weighted values associated with links in local structure are also different. In this paper, we adapt an effective link prediction model-local naive Bayes model into a weighted scenario to address this issue. Correspondingly, we propose a weighted local naive Bayes (WLNB) probabilistic link prediction framework. The main contribution here is that a weighted cluster coefficient has been incorporated, allowing our model to inference the weighted contribution in the predicting stage. In addition, WLNB can extensively be applied to several classic similarity metrics. We evaluate WLNB on different kinds of real-world weighted datasets. Experimental results show that our proposed approach performs better (by AUC and Prec) than several alternative methods for link prediction in weighted complex networks.

Formation of Scenarios for The Development of The Tourism Industry of Ukraine With The Help of Cognitive Modeling

  • Shelemetieva, Tetiana;Zatsepina, Nataly;Barna, Marta;Topornytska, Mariia;Tuchkovska, Iryna
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.8-16
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    • 2021
  • The tourism industry is influenced by a large number of factors that affect the development scenarios of the tourism in different ways. At the same time, tourism is an important component of the national economy of any state, forms its image, investment attractiveness, is a source of income and a stimulus for business development. The aim of the article is to conduct an empirical study to identify the importance of cognitive determinants in the development of tourism. The study used general and special methods: systems analysis, synthesis, grouping, systematization, cognitive modeling, cognitive map, pulse method, predictive extrapolation. Target factors, indicators, and control factors influencing the development of tourism in Ukraine are determined and a cognitive model is built, which graphically reflects the nature of the influence of these factors. Four main scenarios of the Ukrainian tourism industry are established on the basis of creating a matrix of adjacency of an oriented graph and forecast modeling based on a scenario approach. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use to forecast the prospects of tourism development in Ukraine, the definition of state policy to support the industry that will promote international and domestic tourism.

Comparison of Sediment Disaster Risk Depending on Bedrock using LSMAP (LSMAP을 활용한 기반암별 토사재해 위험도 비교)

  • Choi, Won-il;Choi, Eun-hwa;Jeon, Seong-kon
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2017
  • For the purpose of the study, of the 76 areas subject to preliminary concentrated management on sediment disaster in the downtown area, 9 areas were selected as research areas. They were classified into three stratified rock areas (Gyeongsan City, Goheung-gun and Daegu Metropolitan City), three igneous rock areas (Daejeon City, Sejong Special Self-Governing City and Wonju City) and three metamorphic rock areas (Namyangju City, Uiwang City and Inje District) according to the characteristics of the bedrock in the research areas. As for the 9 areas, analyses were conducted based on tests required to calculate soil characteristics, a predictive model for root adhesive power, loading of trees and on-the-spot research. As for a rainfall scenario (rainfall intensity), the probability of rainfall was applied as offered by APEC Climate Center (APCC) in Busan. As for the prediction of landslide risks in the 9 areas, TRIGRS and LSMAP were applied. As a result of TRIGRIS prediction, the risk rate was recorded 30.45% in stratified rock areas, 41.03% in igneous rock areas and 45.04% in metamorphic rock areas on average. As a result of LSMAP prediction based on root cohesion and the weight of trees according to crown density, it turned out to a 1.34% risk rate in the stratified rock areas, 2.76% in the igneous rock areas and 1.64% in the metamorphic rock areas. Analysis through LSMAP was considered to be relatively local predictive rather than analysis using TRIGRS.

Limitations of Applying Land-Change Models for REDD Reference Level Setting: A Case Study of Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China (REDD 기준선 설정 시 토지이용변화 예측모형 적용의 한계: 중국 운남성 시솽반나 열대림 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Oh Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.277-287
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    • 2015
  • This paper addresses limitations of land-change modeling application in the context of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation). REDD is an international conservation policy that aims to protect forests via carbon credit generation and trading. In REDD, carbon credits are generated only if there is measurable quantied carbon sequestration activities that are additional to business-as-usual (BAU). A "reference level" is defined as simulated baseline carbon emissions for the future under a BAU scenario, and predictive land-change modeling plays an important role in constructing reference levels. It is tested in this research how predictive accuracies of two land-change models, namely Geographic Emission Benchmark (GEB) and GEOMOD, vary with respect to different spatial scales: Xishuangbanna prefecture and Yunnan province. The accuracies are measured by Figure of Merit. In this Chinese case study, it turns out that GEB's better performance is mainly due to quantity (e.g., how many hectares of forest will be converted to agricultural land?) rather than spatial allocation (e.g., where will the conversion happen?). As both quantity and allocation are crucial in REDD reference level setting it appears to be fundamental to systematically analyze accuracies of quantity and allocation independently in pursuit of accurate reference levels.

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MODFLOW or FEFLOW: A Case Study of Groundwater Model Selection for the Upper Waikato Catchment, New Zealand

  • Weir, Julian;Moore, Dr Catherine;Hadfield, John
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2011
  • Groundwater in the Waikatoregion is a valuable resource for agriculture, water supply, forestry and industries. The 434,000 ha study area comprises the upper Waikato River catchment from the outflow of Lake Taupo (New Zealand's largest lake) through to Lake Karapiro (a man-made hydro lake with high recreational value) (Figure 1). Water quality in the area is naturally high. However, there are indications that this quality is deteriorating as a result of land use intensification and deforestation. Compounding this concern for decision makers is the lag time between land use changes and the realisation of effects on groundwater and surface water quality. It is expected that the effects of land use changes have not yet fully manifested, and additional intensification may take decadesto fully develop, further compounding the deterioration. Consequently, Environment Waikato (EW) have proposed a programme of work to develop a groundwater model to assist managing water quality and appropriate policy development within the catchment. One of the most important and critical decisions of any modelling exercise is the choice of the modelling platform to be used. It must not inhibit future decision making and scenario exploration and needs to allow as accurate representation of reality as feasible. With this in mind, EW requested that two modelling platforms, MODFLOW/MT3DMS and FEFLOW, be assessed for their ability to deliver the long-term modelling objectives for this project. The two platforms were compared alongside various selection criteria including complexity of model set-up and development, computational burden, ease and accuracy of representing surface water-groundwater interactions, precision in predictive scenarios and ease with which the model input and output files could be interrogated. This latter criteria is essential for the thorough assessment of predictive uncertainty with third-party software, such as PEST. This paper will focus on the attributes of each modelling platform and the comparison of the two approaches against the key criteria in the selection process. Primarily due to the ease of handling and developing input files and interrogating output files, MODFLOW/MT3DMS was selected as the preferred platform. Other advantages and disadvantages of the two modelling platforms were somewhat balanced. A preliminary regional groundwater numerical model of the study area was subsequently constructed. The model simulates steady state groundwater and surface water flows using MODFLOW and transient contaminant transport with MT3DMS, focussing on nitrate nitrogen (as a conservative solute). Geological information for this project was provided by GNS Science. Professional peer review was completed by Dr. Vince Bidwell (of Lincoln Environmental).

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Optimizing Clustering and Predictive Modelling for 3-D Road Network Analysis Using Explainable AI

  • Rotsnarani Sethy;Soumya Ranjan Mahanta;Mrutyunjaya Panda
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.24 no.9
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    • pp.30-40
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    • 2024
  • Building an accurate 3-D spatial road network model has become an active area of research now-a-days that profess to be a new paradigm in developing Smart roads and intelligent transportation system (ITS) which will help the public and private road impresario for better road mobility and eco-routing so that better road traffic, less carbon emission and road safety may be ensured. Dealing with such a large scale 3-D road network data poses challenges in getting accurate elevation information of a road network to better estimate the CO2 emission and accurate routing for the vehicles in Internet of Vehicle (IoV) scenario. Clustering and regression techniques are found suitable in discovering the missing elevation information in 3-D spatial road network dataset for some points in the road network which is envisaged of helping the public a better eco-routing experience. Further, recently Explainable Artificial Intelligence (xAI) draws attention of the researchers to better interprete, transparent and comprehensible, thus enabling to design efficient choice based models choices depending upon users requirements. The 3-D road network dataset, comprising of spatial attributes (longitude, latitude, altitude) of North Jutland, Denmark, collected from publicly available UCI repositories is preprocessed through feature engineering and scaling to ensure optimal accuracy for clustering and regression tasks. K-Means clustering and regression using Support Vector Machine (SVM) with radial basis function (RBF) kernel are employed for 3-D road network analysis. Silhouette scores and number of clusters are chosen for measuring cluster quality whereas error metric such as MAE ( Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) are considered for evaluating the regression method. To have better interpretability of the Clustering and regression models, SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), a powerful xAI technique is employed in this research. From extensive experiments , it is observed that SHAP analysis validated the importance of latitude and altitude in predicting longitude, particularly in the four-cluster setup, providing critical insights into model behavior and feature contributions SHAP analysis validated the importance of latitude and altitude in predicting longitude, particularly in the four-cluster setup, providing critical insights into model behavior and feature contributions with an accuracy of 97.22% and strong performance metrics across all classes having MAE of 0.0346, and MSE of 0.0018. On the other hand, the ten-cluster setup, while faster in SHAP analysis, presented challenges in interpretability due to increased clustering complexity. Hence, K-Means clustering with K=4 and SVM hybrid models demonstrated superior performance and interpretability, highlighting the importance of careful cluster selection to balance model complexity and predictive accuracy.

Tumor Infiltrating Lymphocytes in Ovarian Cancer

  • Gasparri, Maria Luisa;Attar, Rukset;Palaia, Innocenza;Perniola, Giorgia;Marchetti, Claudia;Donato, Violante Di;Farooqi, Ammad Ahmad;Papadia, Andrea;Panici, Pierluigi Benedetti
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.3635-3638
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    • 2015
  • Several improvements in ovarian cancer treatment have been achieved in recent years, both in surgery and in combination chemotherapy with targeting. However, ovarian tumors remain the women's cancers with highest mortality rates. In this scenario, a pivotal role has been endorsed to the immunological environment and to the immunological mechanisms involved in ovarian cancer behavior. Recent evidence suggests a loss of the critical balance between immune-activating and immune-suppressing mechanisms when oncogenesis and cancer progression occur. Ovarian cancer generates a mechanism to escape the immune system by producing a highly suppressive environment. Immune-activated tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in ovarian tumor tissue testify that the immune system is the trigger in this neoplasm. The TIL mileau has been demonstrated to be associated with better prognosis, more chemosensitivity, and more cases of optimal residual tumor achieved during primary cytoreduction. Nowadays, scientists are focusing attention on new immunologically effective tumor biomarkers in order to optimize selection of patients for recruitment in clinical trials and to identify relationships of these biomarkers with responses to immunotherapeutics. Assessing this point of view, TILs might be considered as a potent predictive immunotherapy biomarker.