• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive distribution

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Stability and Performance Investigations of Model Predictive Controlled Active-Front-End (AFE) Rectifiers for Energy Storage Systems

  • Akter, Md. Parvez;Mekhilef, Saad;Tan, Nadia Mei Lin;Akagi, Hirofumi
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.202-215
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    • 2015
  • This paper investigates the stability and performance of model predictive controlled active-front-end (AFE) rectifiers for energy storage systems, which has been increasingly applied in power distribution sectors and in renewable energy sources to ensure an uninterruptable power supply. The model predictive control (MPC) algorithm utilizes the discrete behavior of power converters to determine appropriate switching states by defining a cost function. The stability of the MPC algorithm is analyzed with the discrete z-domain response and the nonlinear simulation model. The results confirms that the control method of the active-front-end (AFE) rectifier is stable, and that is operates with an infinite gain margin and a very fast dynamic response. Moreover, the performance of the MPC controlled AFE rectifier is verified with a 3.0 kW experimental system. This shows that the MPC controlled AFE rectifier operates with a unity power factor, an acceptable THD (4.0 %) level for the input current and a very low DC voltage ripple. Finally, an efficiency comparison is performed between the MPC and the VOC-based PWM controllers for AFE rectifiers. This comparison demonstrates the effectiveness of the MPC controller.

Analysis of Microbial Contamination in Microgreen from Harvesting and Processing Steps and the Development of the Predictive Model for Total Viable Counts (어린잎채소의 생산·가공 공정 중 미생물 오염도 분석 및 총균수 예측모델 개발)

  • Kang, Mi Seon;Kim, Hyun Jung
    • Journal of the FoodService Safety
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.84-90
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    • 2021
  • This study was performed to assess the microbiological quality and safety of microgreen sampled from harvesting farms and food processing plant in Korea. The samples were analyzed for total viable counts, coliforms, Enterobacteriaceae, Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Bacillus cereus, and Staphylococcus aureus. Total viable counts were highly contaminated in samples collected from farms (7.7~8.2 log CFU/g) and the final products (5.8~7.8 log CFU/g), respectively. B. cereus was detected less than 100 CFU/g, which was satisfied with Korean standards (<1,000 CFU/g) of fresh-cut produce. A predictive model was developed for the changes of total viable counts in microgreens during storage at 5~35℃. The predictive models were developed using the Baranyi model for the primary model and the square root model for the secondary model. The results obtained in this study can be useful to develop the safety management options along the food chain, including fresh-cut produce storage and distribution.

Extraction of Potential Area for Block Stream and Talus Using Spatial Integration Model (공간통합 모델을 적용한 암괴류 및 애추 지형 분포가능지 추출)

  • Lee, Seong-Ho;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the relativity between block stream and talus distributions by employing a likelihood ratio approach. Possible distribution sites for each debris slope landform were extracted by applying a spatial integration model, in which we combined fuzzy set model, Bayesian predictive model, and logistic regression model. Moreover, to verify model performance, a success rate curve was prepared by cross-validation. The results showed that elevation, slope, curvature, topographic wetness index, geology, soil drainage, and soil depth were closely related to the debris slope landform sites. In addition, all spatial integration models displayed an accuracy of over 90%. The accuracy of the distribution potential area map of the block stream was highest in the logistic regression model (93.79%). Eventually, the accuracy of the distribution potential area map of the talus was also highest in the logistic regression model (97.02%). We expect that the present results will provide essential data and propose methodologies to improve the performance of efficient and systematic micro-landform studies. Moreover, our research will potentially help to enhance field research and topographic resource management.

LSTM-based Business Process Remaining Time Prediction Model Featured in Activity-centric Normalization Techniques (액티비티별 특징 정규화를 적용한 LSTM 기반 비즈니스 프로세스 잔여시간 예측 모델)

  • Ham, Seong-Hun;Ahn, Hyun;Kim, Kwanghoon Pio
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2020
  • Recently, many companies and organizations are interested in predictive process monitoring for the efficient operation of business process models. Traditional process monitoring focused on the elapsed execution state of a particular process instance. On the other hand, predictive process monitoring focuses on predicting the future execution status of a particular process instance. In this paper, we implement the function of the business process remaining time prediction, which is one of the predictive process monitoring functions. In order to effectively model the remaining time, normalization by activity is proposed and applied to the predictive model by taking into account the difference in the distribution of time feature values according to the properties of each activity. In order to demonstrate the superiority of the predictive performance of the proposed model in this paper, it is compared with previous studies through event log data of actual companies provided by 4TU.Centre for Research Data.

Researches on The Aging Characteristics in Distribution Facilities (배전용(配電用) 기자재(機資材)의 열화특성(劣化特性) 고찰(考察))

  • Jang, Jeong-Tae;Koh, In-Seok;Hong, Soon-Hak
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1991.07a
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    • pp.81-85
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    • 1991
  • The distribution facilities fault has been anually shown about 13% all of the total distribution faults. Therefore, to prevent, the distribution facilities we have to manage them properly during their life time and enhance their quality and advance preventible maintenance, that is predictive maintenance or condition based maintenance. This paper presents the aging characteristics and the degenerating factors. Accordingly, improving the enhanced quality of distribution facilites is expected to contribute the electric power operation constantly.

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Model Predictive Control of Bidirectional AC-DC Converter for Energy Storage System

  • Akter, Md. Parvez;Mekhilef, Saad;Tan, Nadia Mei Lin;Akagi, Hirofumi
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2015
  • Energy storage system has been widely applied in power distribution sectors as well as in renewable energy sources to ensure uninterruptible power supply. This paper presents a model predictive algorithm to control a bidirectional AC-DC converter, which is used in an energy storage system for power transferring between the three-phase AC voltage supply and energy storage devices. This model predictive control (MPC) algorithm utilizes the discrete behavior of the converter and predicts the future variables of the system by defining cost functions for all possible switching states. Subsequently, the switching state that corresponds to the minimum cost function is selected for the next sampling period for firing the switches of the AC-DC converter. The proposed model predictive control scheme of the AC-DC converter allows bidirectional power flow with instantaneous mode change capability and fast dynamic response. The performance of the MPC controlled bidirectional AC-DC converter is simulated with MATLAB/Simulink(R) and further verified with 3.0kW experimental prototypes. Both the simulation and experimental results show that, the AC-DC converter is operated with unity power factor, acceptable THD (3.3% during rectifier mode and 3.5% during inverter mode) level of AC current and very low DC voltage ripple. Moreover, an efficiency comparison is performed between the proposed MPC and conventional VOC-based PWM controller of the bidirectional AC-DC converter which ensures the effectiveness of MPC controller.

Analysis of Regional Potential Mapping Factors of Metal Deposits using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 광역 금속 광상 배태 잠재성 평가 인자 분석)

  • Park, Gyesoon
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2020
  • The genesis of ore bodies is a very diverse and complex process, and the target depth of mineral exploration increases. These create a need for predictive mineral exploration, which may be facilitated by the advancement of machine learning and geological database. In this study, we confirm that the faults and igneous rocks distributions and magnetic data can be used as input data for potential mapping using deep neural networks. When the input data are constructed with faults, igneous rocks, and magnetic data, we can build a potential mapping model of the metal deposit that has a predictive accuracy greater than 0.9. If detailed geological and geophysical data are obtained, this approach can be applied to the potential mapping on a mine scale. In addition, we confirm that the magnetic data, which provide the distribution of the underground igneous rock, can supplement the limited information from the surface igneous rock distribution. Therefore, rather than simply integrating various data sets, it will be more important to integrate information considering the geological correlation to genesis of minerals.

Prediction of Coagulation/Flocculation Treatment Efficiency of Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) Using Multiple DOM Characteristics (다중 유기물 특성 지표를 활용한 용존 유기물질 응집/침전 제거효율 예측)

  • Bo Young Kim;Ka-Young Jung;Jin Hur
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.465-474
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    • 2023
  • The chemical composition and molecular weight characteristics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) exert a profound influence on the efficiency of organic matter removal in water treatment systems, acting as efficiency predictive indicators. This research evaluated the primary chemical and molecular weight properties of DOM derived from diverse sources, including rivers, lakes, and biomasses, and assessed their relationship with the efficiency of coagulation/flocculation treatments. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal efficiency through coagulation/flocculation exhibited significant correlations with DOM's hydrophobic distribution, the ratio of humic-like to protein-like fluorescence, and the molecular weight associated with humic substances (HS). These findings suggest that the DOC removal rate in coagulation/flocculation processes is enhanced by a higher presence of HS in DOM, an increased influence of externally sourced DOM, and more presence of high molecular weight compounds. The results of this study further posit that the efficacy of water treatment processes can be more accurately predicted when considering multiple DOM characteristics rather than relying on a singular trait. Based on major results from this study, a predictive model for DOC removal efficiency by coagulation/flocculation was formulated as: 24.3 - 7.83 × (fluorescence index) + 0.089 × (hydrophilic distribution) + 0.102 × (HS molecular weight). This proposed model, coupled with supplementary monitoring of influent organic matter, has the potential to enhance the design and predictive accuracy for coagulation/flocculation treatments targeting DOC removal in future applications.

Confidence Intervals and Joint Confidence Regions for the Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution based on Records

  • Asgharzadeh, A.;Abdi, M.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2011
  • Exponential distribution is widely adopted as a lifetime model. Many authors have considered the interval estimation of the parameters of two-parameter exponential distribution based on complete and censored samples. In this paper, we consider the interval estimation of the location and scale parameters and the joint confidence region of the parameters of two-parameter exponential distribution based on upper records. A simulation study is done for the performance of all proposed confidence intervals and regions. We also propose the predictive intervals of the future records. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed methods.

Statistical Inference in Non-Identifiable and Singular Statistical Models

  • Amari, Shun-ichi;Amari, Shun-ichi;Tomoko Ozeki
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.179-192
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    • 2001
  • When a statistical model has a hierarchical structure such as multilayer perceptrons in neural networks or Gaussian mixture density representation, the model includes distribution with unidentifiable parameters when the structure becomes redundant. Since the exact structure is unknown, we need to carry out statistical estimation or learning of parameters in such a model. From the geometrical point of view, distributions specified by unidentifiable parameters become a singular point in the parameter space. The problem has been remarked in many statistical models, and strange behaviors of the likelihood ratio statistics, when the null hypothesis is at a singular point, have been analyzed so far. The present paper studies asymptotic behaviors of the maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayesian predictive estimator, by using a simple cone model, and show that they are completely different from regular statistical models where the Cramer-Rao paradigm holds. At singularities, the Fisher information metric degenerates, implying that the cramer-Rao paradigm does no more hold, and that he classical model selection theory such as AIC and MDL cannot be applied. This paper is a first step to establish a new theory for analyzing the accuracy of estimation or learning at around singularities.

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