• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive distribution

Search Result 294, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

How Digital Technology Driven Millennial Consumer Behaviour in Indonesia

  • INDAHINGWATI, Asmara;LAUNTU, Ansir;TAMSAH, Hasmin;FIRMAN, Ahmad;PUTRA, Aditya Halim Perdana Kusuma;ASWARI, Aan
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.17 no.8
    • /
    • pp.25-34
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose - Investigate the association of internal and external factors of consumers and analysing the role of moderating comparative marketing aspects, especially the part of YouTuber and celebgram in influencing purchase decisions. Apart from that, it provides an overview of the pattern of purchase decision making in forming Millennials and Y generation consumer culture Research design, data, and methodology - This study uses a quantitative research approach with descriptive, predictive, and prospective data analysis on 300 eligible Millennials and Y aged 20-35 years who are bachelor-educated. Data collection using online surveys with final statistical analysis using the Partial Least Square (PLS) approach Results - All hypothesis are declared accepted, indirect testing the dominant internal consumer factors have a positive and significant effect on consumers' purchase decisions. Through testing Moderating, aspect marketing comparative is also authoritative able to moderate internal consumer factors towards purchase decision making. Conclusions - Digital technology is changing the paradigm and perceptions of the millennials and Y generations in terms of behaving as a generation of technology connoisseurs who also influence and shape the culture of that generation and the generations to come in the future.

Inference Models for Tidal Flat Elevation and Sediment Grain Size: A Preliminary Approach on Tidal Flat Macrobenthic Community

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Hwang, In-Seo;Hong, Jae-Sang
    • Ocean Science Journal
    • /
    • v.42 no.2
    • /
    • pp.69-79
    • /
    • 2007
  • A vertical transect with 4 km length was established for the macrofaunal survey on the Chokchon macrotidal flat in Kyeonggi Bay, Incheon, Korea, 1994. Tidal elevation (m) and sediment mean grain size $(\phi)$ were inversely predicted by the transfer functions from the faunal assemblages. Three methods: weighted average using optimum value (WA), tolerance weighted version of the weighted average (WAT) and maximum likelihood calibration (MLC) were employed. Estimates of tidal elevation and mean grain size obtained by using the three different methods showed positively corresponding trends with the observations. The estimates of MLC were found to have the minimum value of sum of squares due to errors (SSE). When applied to the previous data $(1990\sim1992)$, each of three inference models exhibited high predictive power. This result implied there are visible relationships between species composition and faunas' critical environmental factors. Although a potential significance of the two major abiotic factors was re-affirmed, a weak tendency of biological interaction was detected from faunal distribution patterns across the flat. In comparison to the spatial and temporal patterns of the estimates, it was suggested that sediment characteristics were the primary factors regulating the distribution of macrofaunal assemblages, rather than tidal elevation, and the species composition may be sensitively determined by minute changes in substratum properties on a tidal flat.

A Study on the Prediction of Welding Distortion and Residual Stress for Channel I Butt SA Weldment Using FE Analysis (유한요소해석을 이용한 채널 I 형 잠호 맞대기 용접부의 변형 및 잔류 응력 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Dae-Hee;Shin, Sang-Beom;Lee, Joo-Sung
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.44 no.6
    • /
    • pp.598-604
    • /
    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to establish the predictive method of welding distortion and residual stress for the channel I butt SA (submerged arc) weldment using FEA. In order to do it, the heat input model for the weldment was defined as the combined heat source with the surface heat flux of gaussian distribution and volumetric heat source uniformly distributed within weld groove by comparing the shapes of molten pool and temperature distribution obtained by FEA with those of experiments. The arc efficiency of SA welding for two-dimensional FE analysis was evaluated as 0.85. The welding distortion and residual stress of the weldment obtained by FEA and heat input model proposed have a good agreement with those obtained by experiment. Based on the results, it was suggested that the proper heat input model should be required to evaluate the welding distortion for weldment.

A PNN approach for combining multiple forecasts (예측치 결합을 위한 PNN 접근방법)

  • Jun, Duk-Bin;Shin, Hyo-Duk;Lee, Jung-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.193-199
    • /
    • 2000
  • In many studies, considerable attention has been focussed upon choosing a model which represents underlying process of time series and forecasting the future. In the real world, however, there may be some cases that one model can not reflect all the characteristics of original time series. Under such circumstances, we may get better performance by combining the forecasts from several models. The most popular methods for combining forecasts involve taking a weighted average of multiple forecasts. But the weights are usually unstable. In cases the assumptions of normality and unbiasedness for forecast errors are satisfied, a Bayesian method can be used for updating the weights. In the real world, however, there are many circumstances the Bayesian method is not appropriate. This paper proposes a PNN(Probabilistic Neural Net) approach as a method for combining forecasts that can be applied when the assumption of normality or unbiasedness for forecast errors is not satisfied. In this paper, PNN method, which is similar to Bayesian approach, is suggested as an updating method of the unstable weights in the combination of the forecasts. The PNN method has been usually used in the field of pattern recognition. Unlike the Bayesian approach, it requires no assumption of a specific prior distribution because it gets probabilities by using the distribution estimated from given data. Empirical results reveal that the PNN method offers superior predictive capabilities.

  • PDF

Modified Borresen's Coarse-Mesh Method for Improved Power Distribution Monitoring System Program Development for PWR (개선된 노심출력분포 감시 프로그램 개발을 위한 수정형 Borresen 모형)

  • Lee, Duk-Jung;Kim, Chang-Hyo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.555-561
    • /
    • 1995
  • This paper examines the applicability of the modified Borresen's coarse-mesh method(MBSN) to the core power distribution monitoring program development for the Yonggwang nuclear power plant unit 3(YGN 3) which uses fixed incore detectors for monitoring core power distribution. In so doing the modified Borresen's coarse-mesh equations are solved with core internal boundary conditions provided by the fixed incore detectors and three-dimensional core power distributions are com puted for the first-cycle core of the YGN 3 PWR. The results are compared with predictions of the COLSS(Core Operating Limit Supervisory System) which is the axial power shape monitoring program of the YGN 3. It is shown that the modified Borresen's method can reproduce the core axial power shape more closely than the COLSS. Because of other advantages in computing speed and predictive capability, n conclude that the proposed MBSN has a promising practical application for core power distribution monitoring program development.

  • PDF

Comparative Analysis on the Performance of NHPP Software Reliability Model with Exponential Distribution Characteristics (지수분포 특성을 갖는 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형의 성능 비교 분석)

  • Park, Seung-Kyu
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.641-648
    • /
    • 2022
  • In this study, the performance of the NHPP software reliability model with exponential distribution (Exponential Basic, Inverse Exponential, Lindley, Rayleigh) characteristics was comparatively analyzed, and based on this, the optimal reliability model was also presented. To analyze the software failure phenomenon, the failure time data collected during system operation was used, and the parameter estimation was solved by applying the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE). Through various comparative analysis (mean square error analysis, true value predictive power analysis of average value function, strength function evaluation, and reliability evaluation applied with mission time), it was found that the Lindley model was an efficient model with the best performance. Through this study, the reliability performance of the distribution with the characteristic of the exponential form, which has no existing research case, was newly identified, and through this, basic design data that software developers could use in the initial stage can be presented.

Epidemiology of patients with snake bite or envenomation in emergency department: NEDIS (National Emergency Department Information System) (국내 응급 센터의 뱀교상 환자의 특징: 국가응급의료정보망)

  • Serok Lee;Woochan Jeon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.45-50
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study utilizes the NEDIS (National Emergency Department Information System) database to suggest a predictive model for snakebite and envenomation in Korea by analyzing the geographical distribution and seasonal variation of snakebite patients visiting the ER. Methods: This was a retrospective study on snakebite patients visiting the ER using the NEDIS database from January 2014 to December 2019. The subjects include patients with the KCD (Korea Standard Classification of Disease) disease code T63.0 (Toxic effect of contact with snake venom). Geographical location, patient gender, patient age, date of ER visit, treatment during the ER stay, and disposition were recorded to analyze the geographical distribution and seasonal variation of snakebite patients in Korea. Results: A total of 12,521 patients were evaluated in this study (7,170 males, 54.9%; 5,351 females, 40.9%). The average age was 58.5±17.5 years. In all, 7,644 patients were admitted with an average admission time of 5.04±4.7 days, and 2 patients expired while admitted. The geographical distribution was Gyeongsang 3,370 (26.9%), Cheonra 2,692 (21.5%), Chungcheong 2,667 (21.3%), Seoul Capital area 1,999 (16.0%), Kangwon 1,457 (11.6%), and Jeju 336 (2.7%). The seasonal variation showed insignificant incidences in winter and higher severity in spring and summer than in fall: winter 27 (0.2%), spring 2,268 (18.1%), summer 6,847 (54.7%), and fall 3,380 (27.0%). Conclusion: Patients presenting with snakebites and envenomation in the emergency room were most common in the Gyeongsang area and during summer. The simple seasonal model predicted that 436 snakebites and 438 envenomation cases occurred in July and August. The results of this study can be applied to suitably distribute and stock antivenom. Appropriate policies can be formed to care for snakebite patients in Korea.

Distribution Dynamics and Proposed Determinants: Exploring Morphological, Clinical Laboratory, and Lifestyle Factors in the Coexistence of Age-Related Skeletal Muscle Mass Loss and Obesity among Young Men: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

  • Jongseok Hwang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Physical Medicine
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.31-41
    • /
    • 2024
  • PURPOSE: This study examined the distribution dynamics and proposed determinants, including morphological measurements, clinical laboratory tests, and lifestyle factors among young Korean men aged 20 to 29 years with the coexistence of age-related loss of skeletal muscle mass and obesity (CALSMO). METHODS: Six hundred and sixty-six participants were divided into two groups based on their skeletal muscle mass index, with 12 individuals categorized in the CALSMO group and the remaining 654 in the normal group. The proposed determinants variables consisted of three main components: morphological measurements, clinical laboratory tests, and lifestyle factors. The morphological measurement variables were height, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, and skeletal muscle mass index. The clinical laboratory tests were fasting glucose, triglyceride, total cholesterol levels, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. The lifestyle factors considered were alcohol consumption and tobacco use. Complex sampling analysis was performed for the evaluation. RESULTS: The distribution dynamics were determined to be 1.81(1.02-3.18) %. Morphological factors, such as height, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, and skeletal muscle mass index, showed significant differences (p < .05). The clinical laboratory test variables, specifically the fasting glucose, triglyceride, and total cholesterol levels, also exhibited significant differences (p < .05). The lifestyle factor, alcohol consumption, also showed a significance (p < .05). CONCLUSION: This study provides insights into the distribution dynamics. The proposed determinants in young Korean individuals with CALSMO are height, weight, body mass index, waist circumference, skeletal muscle mass index, fasting glucose, triglyceride, total cholesterol levels, and alcohol consumption.

Prediction of Changes in the Potential Distribution of a Waterfront Alien Plant, Paspalum distichum var. indutum, under Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 기후변화에 따른 수변 외래식물인 털물참새피의 분포 변화 예측)

  • Cho, Kang-Hyun;Lee, Seung Hyun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
    • /
    • v.2 no.3
    • /
    • pp.206-215
    • /
    • 2015
  • Predicting the changes in the potential distribution of invasive alien plants under climate change is an important and challenging task for the conservation of biodiversity and management of the ecosystems in streams and reservoirs. This study explored the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of Paspalum distichum var. indutum in the Korean Peninsula. P. distichum var. indutum is an invasive grass species that has a profound economic and environmental impact in the waterfronts of freshwater ecosystems. The Maxent model was used to estimate the potential distribution of P. distichum var. indutum under current and future climates. A total of nineteen climatic variables of Worldclim 1.4 were used as current climatic data and future climatic data predicted by HadGEM2-AO with both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050. The predicted current distribution of P. distichum var. indutum was almost matched with actual positioning data. Major environmental variables contributing to the potential distribution were precipitation of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. Our prediction results for 2050 showed an overall reduction in climatic suitability for P. distichum var. indutum in the current distribution area and its expansion to further inland and in a northerly direction. The predictive model used in this study appeared to be powerful for understanding the potential distribution, exploring the effects of climate change on the habitat changes and providing the effective management of the risk of biological invasion by alien plants.

A Study on the Determination of the Risk-Loaded Premium using Risk Measures in the Credibility Theory (신뢰도이론에서 위험측도를 이용한 할증보험료 결정에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Hyun Tae;Jeon, Yongho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.71-87
    • /
    • 2014
  • The Bayes premium or the net premium in the credibility theory does not reflect the underlying tail risk. In this study we examine how the tail risk measures can be utilized in determining the risk premium. First, we show that the risk measures can not only provide the proper risk loading, but also allow the insurer to avoid the wrong decision made with the Bayesian premium alone. Second, it is illustrated that the rank of the tail thickness among different conditional loss distributions does not preserve for the corresponding predictive distributions, even if they share the identical prior variable. The implication of this result is that the risk loading for a contract should be based on the risk measure of the predictive loss distribution not the conditional one.