• 제목/요약/키워드: prediction technique

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The Efficacy of Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Transbronchial Needle Aspiration in Mediastinal Staging of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in a University Hospital

  • Joo, Hye-Jin;Kim, Hyeong-Ryul;Oh, Yeon-Mok;Kim, Yong-Hee;Shim, Tae-Sun;Kim, Dong-Kwan;Park, Seung-Il;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Choi, Chang-Min
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.71 no.3
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    • pp.180-187
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    • 2011
  • Background: In mediastinal lymph node sampling in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) it is important to determine the appropriate treatment as well as to predict an outcome. Endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) is a recently developed, accurate, safe technique in patients with NSCLC for sampling mediastinal lymph nodes. We sought to determine the usefulness of EBUS-TBNA in mediastinal staging with NSCLC considered to be operable. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the records of 142 patients who underwent EBUS-TBNA for mediastinal staging in the Asan Medical Center, Korea from July 2008 to July 2010. If patients were in an operable state, they underwent subsequent surgical staging. Diagnoses based on biopsy results were compared with those based on surgical results. Results: We performed EBUS-TBNA in 184 mediastinal lymph nodes in 142 NSCLC patients. Almost all of the EBUS-TBNA samples were from the lower paratracheal (112, 60.9%) and subcarinal (57, 31.0%) lymph nodes. In 142 patients, 51 patients (35.9%) were confirmed with malignant invasion of the mediastinal lymph node by EBUS-TBNA and 91 (64.1%) patients were not confirmed. Among the 91 patients, 64 patients (70.3%) underwent surgical staging. 3 patients (4.7%) who were misdiagnosed by the EBUS-TBNA were confirmed by surgery. After Diagnostic sensitivity of EBUS-TBNA, the prediction of mediastinal metastatsis was 94.4% and specificity was 100%. The procedures were performed safely and no serious complications were observed. Conclusion: We demonstrated the high diagnostic value of EBUS-TBNA for mediastinal staging.

Determination of Baicalin and Baicalein Contents in Scutellaria baicalensis by NIRS (근적외선분광분석기를 이용한 황금(Scutellaria baicalensis)의 baicalin 및 baicalein 함량 분석)

  • Kim, Hyo-Jae;Kim, Se-Young;Lee, Young-Sang;Kim, Yong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.286-292
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    • 2014
  • Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) is a rapid and accurate analytical method for determining the composition of agricultural products and feeds. This study was conducted to measure baicalin, baicalein, and wogonin contents in Scutellaria baicalensis by using NIRS system. Total 63 samples previously were analyzed by HPLC, which showed baicalin, baicalein, and wogonin contents ranging 4.56 to 13.59%, 0.28 to 5.54%, and 0.50 to 1.63% with an average of 9.66%, 2.09% and 0.52%, respectively. Each sample was scanned by NIRS and calculated for calibration and validation equation. A calibration equation calculated by modified partial least squares(MPLS) regression technique was developed in which the coefficient of determination for baicalin, baicalein, and wogonin content was 0.958, 0.944, and 0.709, respectively. Each calibration equation was applied to validation set that was performed with the remaining samples not included in the calibration set, which showed high positive correlation both in baicalin and baicalein content file. In case of wogonin, the prediction model was needed more accuracy because of low $R^2$ value in validation set. These results demonstrate that the developed NIRS equation can be practically used as a rapid screening method for quantification of baicalin and baicalein contents in Scutellaria baicalensis.

Sentiment Analysis of movie review for predicting movie rating (영화리뷰 감성 분석을 통한 평점 예측 연구)

  • Jo, Jung-Tae;Choi, Sang-Hyun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2015
  • Currently, the influence of the Internet portal sites that can make it quick and easy to contact the vast amount of information is increasing. Users can connect the Internet through a portal to obtain information, such as communication between Internet users, which can be used to meet a variety of purposes. People are exposed to a variety of information from other users in the search for a movie and get information. The impact on the reviews and ratings with the limited number of characters of the film allows users to form a relationship to the movie, decide whether you want to see the movie or find another movie. but, the user can not read the whole movie review. When user see the overall evaluation, the user can receive the correct information. This research conducted a study on the prediction of the rating by the use of review data. Information of reviews, is divided into two main areas: the"fact" and "opinion". "Fact" is to convey the dispassionate information and "Opinion" is, to represent the user's feelings. In this study, we built sentiment dictionary based on the assessment and evaluation of the online review and applied to evaluate other movies. In the comparative study with a simple emotion evaluation technique, we found the suggested algorithm got the more accurate results.

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A Study on Risk Management of Bill of Lading in International Trade Transaction (국제무역거래에서 선하증권의 위험관리에 관한연구)

  • Han, Nak-Hyun
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.37
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    • pp.187-216
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    • 2008
  • Risk regarding the possibility of loss can be especially problematic. If a loss is certain to occur, it may be planned for in advance and treated as a definite, known expense. It is when there is uncertainty about the occurrence of a loss that risk becomes an important problem. The word risk is often used in connection with insurance. No one generally accepted definition of risk exists, however. Of the many definitions, two distinctive ones are commonly used. One defines risk as the variation in possible outcomes of an event based on chance. That is, the greater the number of different outcomes that may occur, the greater the risk. Another way of expressing this concept is to state: The greater the variation around an average expected loss, the greater the risk. The second definition of risk is the uncertainty concerning a possible loss. The definition of risk as a useful one because it focuses attention on the degree of risk in given situations. The degree of risk is a measure of the accuracy with which the outcome of an event based on chance can be predicted. For now, it will serve our purpose to note the more accurate the prediction of the outcome of an event based on chance, the lower the degree of risk. After sources of risks are identified and measured, a decision can be made as to how the risk should be handled. A pure risk that is not identified does not disappear, the business merely loses the opportunity to consciously decide on the best technique for dealing with that risk. The process used to systematically manage risk exposures is known as risk management. Some persons use the term risk management only in connection with businesses, and often the term refers only to the management of pure risks. In this sense, the traditional risk management goal has been to minimize the cost of pure risk to the company. But as firms broaden the ways that they view and manage many different types of risk, the need for new terminology has become apparent. The terms integrated risk management and enterprise risk management reflect the intent to manage all forms of risk, regardless of type. International trade transaction is called between countries has features of globalism, cultural gap, long distance and long terms for the transaction. It is riskier than domestic transaction has its specific risks, such as foreign exchange risk and political risk, and requires various active risk management skills. Risks in relation to the international trade transaction are the contract risk, transit risk and payment risk, etc. The risk management in relation to the international trade transaction is to identify and measure these risks. The purpose of this study is to analyse the practical problems and its solution plan by analyzing various cases related to the risk management of bill of lading in the international trade transaction.

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Application Assessment of Passive Sampling to Monitor Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in Water Environment as Alternative Sampling Method for Grab Sampling (수계 중 폴리브롬화 디페닐에테르 모니터링을 위한 Passive Sampling 적용 및 그랩 시료채취법의 대체 활용가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Un-Jung;Seo, Chang Dong;Im, Tae-Hyo;Oh, Jeong-Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2015
  • PBDEs (polybrominated diphenyl ehters) are rarely dissolved in water due to their strong hydrophobicity and large molecular mass so not many researches were done in aqueous environment compared to other environmental compartments. However, the mass loading from wastewater treatment plant into aquatic environment, re-suspension from bottom sediment and partitioning from floating particles and colloids may not be negligible. It is, therefore, important but also difficult to investigate PBDEs in water environment. Recent overcoming resolution towards this barrier to monitor hydrophobic organic compounds in aquatic environment is using passive sampling technique like semipermeable membrane device. By using passive sampling, it might be possible to obtain long-term reproducible monitoring result and detect the trace amounts of PBDEs, with controlling fluctuation of surrounding environmental factors during the sampling event. So therefore, this study is purposed to confirm the possibility of using SPMD (semi-permeable membrane device) as water monitoring tool. Grab samples, composite samples and SPMDs were applied in river bank to evaluate the concentration difference and temporal fluctuation by various water sampling method, and to assess the water concentration prediction capability of SPMD for the PBDEs.

System Development for Analysis and Compensation of Column Shortening of Reinforced Concrete Tell Buildings (철근콘크리트 고층건물 기둥의 부등축소량 해석 및 보정을 위한 시스템 개발)

  • 김선영;김진근;김원중
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2002
  • Recently, construction of reinforced concrete tall buildings is widely increased according to the improvement of material quality and design technology. Therefore, differential shortenings of columns due to elastic, creep, and shrinkage have been an important issue. But it has been neglected to predict the Inelastic behavior of RC structures even though those deformations make a serious problem on the partition wall, external cladding, duct, etc. In this paper, analysis system for prediction and compensation of the differential column shortenings considering time-dependent deformations and construction sequence is developed using the objected-oriented technique. Developed analysis system considers the construction sequence, especially time-dependent deformation in early days, and is composed of input module, database module, database store module, analysis module, and analysis result generation module. Graphic user interface(GUI) is supported for user's convenience. After performing the analysis, the output results like deflections and member forces according to the time can be observed in the generation module using the graphic diagram, table, and chart supported by the integrated environment.

Comparative Study on the Prediction Method of Bearing Capacity for Single Stone Column (단일 쇄석다짐말뚝의 지지력 예측방법에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Chun, Byung-Sik;Kim, Won-Cheul;Jo, Yang-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2004
  • Stone column is a soil improvement method and can be applicable for loose sand or weak cohesive soil. Since the lack of sand in korea, stone column seems one of the most adaptable approach for poor ground as a soil improvement technique. However, this method was not studied for practical application. In this paper, the most affective design parameters for the bearing capacity of stone column were studied. The parametric study of major design factors for single stone column was carried out under the bulging and general shear failure condition, respectively. Especially, a test result of single stone column by static load was compared with the bearing capacity values of suggested formulas. The analysis result showed that the ultimate bearing capacity by the formula was much less than the measured value by the static load test. Especially, the result of the parametric study under general shear failure condition showed that the bearing capacity has big difference between each suggested formulas with the variation of the major design parameters. Therefore, the result of this study can be appliable for the future stone column project.

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Porewater Pressure Predictions on Hillside Slopes for Assessing Landslide Risks (II) Development of Groundwater Flow Model (산사태 위험도 추정을 위한 간극수압 예측에 관한 연구(II) -산사면에서의 지하수위 예측 모델의 개발-)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Park, Gyeong-Ho;Im, Chung-Mo
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 1992
  • The physical-based and lumped-parameter hydrologic groundwater flow model for predicting the rainfall-triggered rise of groundwater levels in hillside slopes is developed in this paper to assess the risk of landslides. The developed model consists of a vertical infiltration model for unsaturated zone linked to a linear storage reservoir model(LSRM) for saturated zone. The groundwater flow model has uncertain constants like soil depttL slope angle, saturated permeability, and potential evapotranspiration and four free model parameters like a, b, c, and K. The free model parameters could be estimated from known input-output records. The BARD algorithm is uses as the parameter estimation technique which is based on a linearization of the proposed model by Gauss -Newton method and Taylor series expansion. The application to examine the capacity of prediction shows that the developed model has a potential of use in forecast systems of predicting landslides and that the optimal estimate of potential 'a' in infiltration model is the most important in the global optimum analysis because small variation of it results in the large change of the objective function, the sum of squares of deviations of the observed and computed groundwater levels. 본 논문에서는 가파른 산사면에서 산사태의 발생을 예측하기 위한 수문학적 인 지하수 흐름 모델을 개발하였다. 이 모델은 물리적인 개념에 기본하였으며, Lumped-parameter를 이용하였다. 개발된 지하수 흐름 모델은 두 모델을 조합하여 구성되어 있으며, 비포화대 흐름을 위해서는 수정된 abcd 모델을, 포화대 흐름에 대해서는 시간 지체 효과를 고려할 수 있는 선형 저수지 모델을 이용하였다. 지하수 흐름 모델은 토층의 두께, 산사면의 경사각, 포화투수계수, 잠재 증발산 량과 같은 불확실한 상수들과 a, b, c, 그리고 K와 같은 자유모델변수들을 가진다. 자유모델변수들은 유입-유출 자료들로부터 평가할 수 있으며, 이를 위해서 본 논문에서는 Gauss-Newton 방법을 이용한 Bard 알고리즘을 사용하였다. 서울 구로구 시흥동 산사태 발생 지역의 산사면에 대하여 개발된 모델을 적용하여 예제 해석을 수행함으로써, 지하수 흐름 모델이 산사태 발생 예측을 위하여 이용할 수 있음을 입증하였다. 또한, 매개변수분석 연구를 통하여, 변수 a값은 작은 변화에 대하여 목적함수값에 큰 변화를 일으키므로 a의 값에 대한 최적값을 구하는 것이 가장 중요한 요소라는 결론을 얻었다.

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Simulation-Based Stochastic Markup Estimation System $(S^2ME)$ (시뮬레이션을 기반(基盤)으로 하는 영업이윤율(營業利潤率) 추정(推定) 시스템)

  • Yi, Chang-Yong;Kim, Ryul-Hee;Lim, Tae-Kyung;Kim, Wha-Jung;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.109-113
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    • 2007
  • This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

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Identification of the Sectional Distribution of Sound Source in a Wide Duct (넓은 덕트 단면내의 음원 분포 규명)

  • Heo, Yong-Ho;Ih, Jeong-Guon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2014
  • If one identifies the detailed distribution of pressure and axial velocity at a source plane, the position and strength of major noise sources can be known, and the propagation characteristics in axial direction can be well understood to be used for the low noise design. Conventional techniques are usually limited in considering the constant source characteristics specified on the whole source surface; then, the source activity cannot be known in detail. In this work, a method to estimate the pressure and velocity field distribution on the source surface with high spatial resolution is studied. The matrix formulation including the evanescent modes is given, and the nearfield measurement method is proposed. Validation experiment is conducted on a wide duct system, at which a part of the source plane is excited by an acoustic driver in the absence of airflow. Increasing the number of evanescent modes, the prediction of pressure spectrum becomes further precise, and it has less than -25 dB error with 26 converged evanescent modes within the Helmholtz number range of interest. By using the converged modal amplitudes, the source parameter distribution is restored, and the position of the driver is clearly identified at kR = 1. By applying the regularization technique to the restored result, the unphysical minor peaks at the source plane can be effectively suppressed with the filtering of the over-estimated pure radial modes.