• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction skills

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The Development of A Standardized Test of Science Inquiry Skills : Interpreting and Analyzing Data for Eighth Grade Students (과학 탐구능력 측정을 위한 표준화 검사지 개발 - 중학교 2학년의 자료 분석과 해석 능력을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Youne-Woo;Woo, Jong-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 1991
  • This study has formed a clear definition of the elements of inquiry skills : inference, determining relationship, causal explanation, prediction, and created the goals of assessment and the items of assessment. They have been checked the validity and the objectivity and the clarity of the items by six professors of science education. At the same time, the two times of the field trial has been executed. and checked the discriminating power and the difficulty index and the effectiveness of distracters, and modified the items. The test developed in this way was administered to 1060 students of the eighth grade, randomly cluster-sampled from the universe, and standardized. The test is the aptitude test as well as the norm-reference test. and has twenty items. The testing-time is thirty minutes. And the cotent validity is 85%, the objectivity of the answer keys 91.7%, the mean of items difficulty 68.8%, the mean of discriminating power 0.39, the standard deviation 3.31, the reliability(K-R 20) 0.69. Because it is the standardized lest, it can diagnose the well-developed skills and the ill-developed skills of the students, and monitor the development of skills.

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Sub-Component Extraction of Inquiry Skills for Direct Teaching of Inquiry Skills (탐구 기능의 직접적 수업을 위한 탐구 기능 하위 요소 추출)

  • Lee, Eun-Ju;Kang, Soon-Hee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.236-264
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to provide teachers with sub-components of inquiry skills and help them to give direct instructions on the skills to their students. Inquiry skills and strategies are considered by-products of science and inquiry instruction by most of the science teachers. On the other hand, much research shows that many students are not familiar with the way that they can use inquiry skills therefore direct instruction on the inquiry skills is needed. The lack of guidance on the sub-components for the inquiry skills, however, results in science teachers' ignorance of the inquiry skills. As shown in the previous studies which suggest that without teachers' guidance, students cannot acquire the intended skills, and it is necessary to inform science teachers of the necessity for direct instruction on the inquiry skills and strategy as well as give them the sub-components of the inquiry skills. On the basis of the results from the previous research on the inquiry skills, this study presents the sub-components of basic inquiry skills (observation, classification, measure, prediction, and reasoning) and integrated inquiry skills (problem recognition, hypothesis formulation, control of variables, data transformation, data interpretation, drawing conclusion, and generalization).

Sequential prediction of TBM penetration rate using a gradient boosted regression tree during tunneling

  • Lee, Hang-Lo;Song, Ki-Il;Qi, Chongchong;Kim, Kyoung-Yul
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.523-533
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    • 2022
  • Several prediction model of penetration rate (PR) of tunnel boring machines (TBMs) have been focused on applying to design stage. In construction stage, however, the expected PR and its trends are changed during tunneling owing to TBM excavation skills and the gap between the investigated and actual geological conditions. Monitoring the PR during tunneling is crucial to rescheduling the excavation plan in real-time. This study proposes a sequential prediction method applicable in the construction stage. Geological and TBM operating data are collected from Gunpo cable tunnel in Korea, and preprocessed through normalization and augmentation. The results show that the sequential prediction for 1 ring unit prediction distance (UPD) is R2≥0.79; whereas, a one-step prediction is R2≤0.30. In modeling algorithm, a gradient boosted regression tree (GBRT) outperformed a least square-based linear regression in sequential prediction method. For practical use, a simple equation between the R2 and UPD is proposed. When UPD increases R2 decreases exponentially; In particular, UPD at R2=0.60 is calculated as 28 rings using the equation. Such a time interval will provide enough time for decision-making. Evidently, the UPD can be adjusted depending on other project and the R2 value targeted by an operator. Therefore, a calculation process for the equation between the R2 and UPD is addressed.

Elementary School Teachers' Perceptions on Effects of 'Basic Inquiry' Units in Experimental Grade 3~4 Science Textbooks developed for 2009 Revised National Curriculum (2009 개정 교육과정에 따른 초등학교 3~4학년 과학 교과용 도서 실험본의 '기초탐구' 단원의 효과에 대한 초등학교 교사의 인식)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyung;Kang, Hunsik;Yoon, Hye-Gyoung
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.30-43
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    • 2014
  • 'Basic Inquiry' unit was newly included in the grade 3~4 science textbook developed for 2009 revised national curriculum. The unit deals with six basic inquiry skills such as 'observation', 'measurement', 'classification', 'prediction', 'inference', and 'communication'. This study investigated elementary school teachers' perceptions on the effects of 'Basic Inquiry' unit by questionnaires (N=104 for pre-survey, N=90 for post-survey). The results showed that how the teachers have taught basic inquiry skills before this new textbook and how they perceived the educational effects of the unit after experimental teaching period in three aspects; development of basic inquiry skills, facilitating science learning in other units, and implementation of open inquiry. The reasons of positive perceptions as well as negative perceptions were analyzed and discussed with the suggestions for further study.

Downward Influences of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in GloSea6: 2018 SSW Case Study (GloSea6 모형에서의 성층권 돌연승온 하층 영향 분석: 2018년 성층권 돌연승온 사례)

  • Dong-Chan Hong;Hyeon-Seon Park;Seok-Woo Son;Joowan Kim;Johan Lee;Yu-Kyung Hyun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.493-503
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the downward influences of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in February 2018 using a subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast model, Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6). To quantify the influences of SSW on the tropospheric prediction skills, free-evolving (FREE) forecasts are compared to stratospheric nudging (NUDGED) forecasts where zonal-mean flows in the stratosphere are relaxed to the observation. When the models are initialized on 8 February 2018, both FREE and NUDGED forecasts successfully predicted the SSW and its downward influences. However, FREE forecasts initialized on 25 January 2018 failed to predict the SSW and downward propagation of negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM). NUDGED forecasts with SSW nudging qualitatively well predicted the downward propagation of negative NAM. In quantity, NUDGED forecasts exhibit a higher mean squared skill score of 500 hPa geopotential height than FREE forecasts in late February and early March. The surface air temperature and precipitation are also better predicted. Cold and dry anomalies over the Eurasia are particularly well predicted in NUDGED compared to FREE forecasts. These results suggest that a successful prediction of SSW could improve the surface prediction skills on subseasonal-to-seasonal time scale.

Assessment of Stratospheric Prediction Skill of the GloSea5 Hindcast Experiment (GloSea5 모형의 성층권 예측성 검증)

  • Jung, Myungil;Son, Seok-Woo;Lim, Yuna;Song, Kanghyun;Won, DukJin;Kang, Hyun-Suk
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.203-214
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    • 2016
  • This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of stratospheric temperature and circulations in the Global Seasonal forecasting model version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast experiment over the period of 1996~2009. Both the tropical and extratropical circulations are considered by analyzing the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex (NHPV). Their prediction skills are quantitatively evaluated by computing the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) and Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS), and compared with those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Stratospheric temperature is generally better predicted than tropospheric temperature. Such improved prediction skill, however, rapidly disappears in a month, and a reliable prediction skill is observed only in the tropics, indicating a higher prediction skill in the tropics than in the extratropics. Consistent with this finding, QBO is well predicted more than 6 months in advance. Its prediction skill is significant in all seasons although a relatively low prediction skill appears in the spring when QBO phase transition often takes place. This seasonality is qualitatively similar to the spring barrier of ENSO prediction skill. In contrast, NHPV exhibits no prediction skill beyond one month as in AO prediction skill. In terms of MSSS, both QBO and NHPV are better predicted than their counterparts in the troposphere, i.e., ENSO and AO, indicating that the GloSea5 has a higher prediction skill in the stratosphere than in the troposphere.

The Effects of Research Project Program on the Science Process Skills and Science-Related Attitudes of High School Students (과제연구 프로그램이 고등학생들의 과학 탐구능력 및 과학에 관련된 태도에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Hae-Young;Moon, Seong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.293-302
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of research project program of science process skills and science-related attitudes for high school students. This study were accompanied by 72 junior students of G High School who were reorganized as students whose research subject was closely related to chemistry. These students went through 28 periods of 14 sessions of research project program, were tested before and after the study on their science process skills and science-related attitudes. A simple questionnaire afterwards to get their thoughts on this program, was surveyed. The results are as follows. First, the research project program was effective in the science process skills (p<0.01). There was a statistically meaningful difference in the subcategory of deduction, setting up hypotheses, finding variables, building experiments, graphing and interpreting data. Although there was an increase in the average scores of prediction, operant definition, and generalization factors, it was not statistically meaningful (p>0.05). Second, the research project program showed an increase in the post-test of the science-related attitudes but was not statistically meaningful (p>0.05). In terms of subcategoty, the social importance of science, criterion of scientists, application of scientific attitude, and enjoyment of science classes were statistically meaningful (p<0.05). Third, according to the survey of research project program, there was an increase in creating a research problem and solving it by oneself as well as in participating with other teammates to solve a problem. But the most difficult thing was when the experiment failed during the research was processing. The curiosity and interest, towards objects around all lives and science classes after the program done, were increased.

Difference of Collaboration·Empathy Skill and Adaptation of School Life according to School Bullying Types (집단따돌림 유형에 따른 협동 및 공감기술과 학교생활적응의 차이)

  • Park, Wan-Sung;Jeong, Goo-Churl
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.399-408
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    • 2016
  • This research was conducted to analyze the relationship among school bullying types, collaboration empathy skills, and adaptation of school life. A survey was conducted for the research, and asked 213 adolescents in middle and high schools in capital area(middle school: 106, high school: 107). Data Analysis was used a two-step cluster analysis to classify the type of bullying, explanation of a prediction variable according to the groups were analyzed by a multiple logistic regression analysis. The results of analysis of the research are as in the following. First, experience of afflicting or suffering from school bullying had negative correlation with collaboration empathy skills, and also with school life adaptation. Secondly, assailant group and victim group of school bullying was related to the lack of collaboration skill, and also related with empathy skill. Thirdly, collaboration empathy skills was influential factor on the adaptation of school life. Based on the results, collaboration empathy skills reduce the experience of bullying, and have a positive impact on the adaptation of school life. It confirmed the need for a social skills training program and discussed the implications.

Predicting Students' Engagement in Online Courses Using Machine Learning

  • Alsirhani, Jawaher;Alsalem, Khalaf
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.159-168
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    • 2022
  • No one denies the importance of online courses, which provide a very important alternative, especially for students who have jobs that prevent them from attending face-to-face in traditional classes; Engagement is one of the most important fundamental variables that indicate the course's success in achieving its objectives. Therefore, the current study aims to build a model using machine learning to predict student engagement in online courses. An online questionnaire was prepared and applied to the students of Jouf University in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and data was obtained from the input variables in the questionnaire, which are: specialization, gender, academic year, skills, emotional aspects, participation, performance, and engagement in the online course as a dependent variable. Multiple regression was used to analyze the data using SPSS. Kegel was used to build the model as a machine learning technique. The results indicated that there is a positive correlation between the four variables (skills, emotional aspects, participation, and performance) and engagement in online courses. The model accuracy was very high 99.99%, This shows the model's ability to predict engagement in the light of the input variables.

Development of 12-month Ensemble Prediction System Using PNU CGCM V1.1 (PNU CGCM V1.1을 이용한 12개월 앙상블 예측 시스템의 개발)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Lee, Su-Bong;Ryoo, Sang-Boom
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.455-464
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates a 12 month-lead predictability of PNU Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) V1.1 hindcast, for which an oceanic data assimilated initialization is used to generate ocean initial condition. The CGCM, a participant model of APEC Climate Center (APCC) long-lead multi-model ensemble system, has been initialized at each and every month and performed 12-month-lead hindcast for each month during 1980 to 2011. The 12-month-lead hindcast consisted of 2-5 ensembles and this study verified the ensemble averaged hindcast. As for the sea-surface temperature concerns, it remained high level of confidence especially over the tropical Pacific and the mid-latitude central Pacific with slight declining of temporal correlation coefficients (TCC) as lead month increased. The CGCM revealed trustworthy ENSO prediction skills in most of hindcasts, in particular. For atmospheric variables, like air temperature, precipitation, and geopotential height at 500hPa, reliable prediction results have been shown during entire lead time in most of domain, particularly over the equatorial region. Though the TCCs of hindcasted precipitation are lower than other variables, a skillful precipitation forecasts is also shown over highly variable regions such as ITCZ. This study also revealed that there are seasonal and regional dependencies on predictability for each variable and lead.