• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction error methods

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A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Silica Concentrations through Time Series Analysis of Mining Data (광업 데이터의 시계열 분석을 통해 실리카 농도를 예측하기 위한 머신러닝 모델)

  • Lee, Seung Hoon;Yoon, Yeon Ah;Jung, Jin Hyeong;Sim, Hyun su;Chang, Tai-Woo;Kim, Yong Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.511-520
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to devise an accurate machine learning model for predicting silica concentrations following the addition of impurities, through time series analysis of mining data. Methods: The mining data were preprocessed and subjected to time series analysis using the machine learning model. Through correlation analysis, valid variables were selected and meaningless variables were excluded. To reflect changes over time, dependent variables at baseline were treated as independent variables at later time points. The relationship between independent variables and the dependent variable after n point was subjected to Pearson correlation analysis. Results: The correlation (R2) was strongest after 3 hours, which was adopted as a dependent variable. According to root mean square error (RMSE) data, the proposed method was superior to the other machine learning methods. The XGboost algorithm showed the best predictive performance. Conclusion: This study is important given the current lack of machine learning studies pertaining to the domestic mining industry. In addition, using time series analysis in mining data will show further improvement. Before establishing a predictive model for the proposed method, predictions should be made using data with time series characteristics. After doing this work, it should also improve prediction accuracy in other domains.

Possibility of the Nondestructive Quality Evaluation of Apples using Near-infrared Spectroscopy (근적외 분광분석법을 응용한 사과의 비파괴 품질 측정 가능성 조사)

  • Sohn, Mi-Ryeong;Kwon, Young-Kil;Lee, Kyung-Hee;Park, Woo-Churl;Cho, Rae-Kwang
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.153-159
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    • 1998
  • A possibility of evaluation of the major internal quality factors-Brix, moisture contents, firmness and acid content in the Korean domestic 'Fuji'apple fruits by near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic (NIRS) methods were investigated. A multiple linear regression(MLR) analysis between the data obtained by physico- chemical analysis method using refractometer, freeze drier, texture analyzer and titrater and NIR spectral data was carried out to make a calibration. The standard error of prediction(SEP) of Brix, moisture, firmness and acid content were $0.50^{\circ}Brix,\;0.64%,\;0.14kg/cm^2$ and 0.07%. It is concluded that NIRS methods can be used to evaluate Brix and moisture contents of in a apple non-destructive and rapid way but the accuracy for determination of firmness and acid content was slightly low.

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A Two-Phase Pressure Drop Calculation Code Based on A New Method with a Correction Factor Obtained from an Assessment of Existing Correlations (기존 상관관계식들의 평가를 통해 얻은 수정계수를 사용하는 새로운 방법에 기초한 2상류 압력강하 계산코드)

  • Chun, Moon-Hyun;Oh, Jae-Guen
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.73-88
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    • 1989
  • Ten methods of the total two-phase pressure drop prediction based on five existing models and correlations have been examined for their accuracy and applicability to pressurized water reactor conditions. These methods were tested against 209 experimental data of local and bulk boiling conditions : Each correlations were evaluated for different ranges of pressure, mass velocity and Quality, and best performing models were identified for each data subsets. A computer code entitled 'K-TWOPD' has been developed to calculate the total two-phase pressure drop using the best performing existing correlations for a specific property range and a correction factor to compensate for the predicted error of the selected correlations. Assessment of this code shows that the present method fits all the available data within $\pm$11% at a 95% confidence level compared with $\pm$25%, for the existing correlations.

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Hyperspectral imaging technique to evaluate the firmness and the sweetness index of tomatoes

  • Rahman, Anisur;Park, Eunsoo;Bae, Hyungjin;Cho, Byoung-Kwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.823-837
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the firmness and the sweetness index (SI) of tomatoes with a hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technique within the wavelength range of 1000 - 1550 nm. The hyperspectral images of 95 tomatoes were acquired with a push-broom hyperspectral reflectance imaging system, from which the mean spectra of each tomato were extracted from the regions of interest. The reference firmness and sweetness index of the same sample was measured and calibrated with their corresponding spectral data by partial least squares (PLS) regression with different preprocessing methods. The calibration model developed by PLS regression based on the Savitzky-Golay second-derivative preprocessed spectra resulted in a better performance for both the firmness and the SI of the tomatoes compared to models developed by other preprocessing methods. The correlation coefficients ($R_{pred}$) were 0.82, and 0.74 with a standard error of prediction of 0.86 N, and 0.63, respectively. Then, the feature wavelengths were identified using a model-based variable selection method, i.e., variable importance in projection, from the PLS regression analyses. Finally, chemical images were derived by applying the respective regression coefficients on the spectral image in a pixel-wise manner. The resulting chemical images provided detailed information on the firmness and the SI of the tomatoes. The results show that the proposed HSI technique has potential for rapid and non-destructive evaluation of firmness and the sweetness index of tomatoes.

Prediction of Resistance Performance for Low-Speed Full Ship using Deep Neural Network (심층신경망을 이용한 저속비대선의 저항성능 추정)

  • TaeWon Park;JangHoon Seo;Dong-Woo Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.1274-1280
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    • 2022
  • The resistance performance evaluation of general ships using computational fluid dynamics requires a lot of time and cost, and various methods are being studied to reduce the time and cost. Existing methods using main particulars or cross sections of ships have limitations in estimating resistance performance that is greatly dependent on the shape of the ship. In this paper, we propose a deep neural network model that can quickly predict the resistance performance of the hull surface by inputting the geometric information of the hullform mesh. The proposed deep neural network model based on Perceiver IO can immediately predict resistance performance, unlike computational fluid dynamics techniques that require calculation in each time step. It shows the result of estimating the resistance performance with an average error of less than 1% in the data set for a 50 K tanker ship, a type of low-speed full ship.

Prediction of East Asian Brain Age using Machine Learning Algorithms Trained With Community-based Healthy Brain MRI

  • Chanda Simfukwe;Young Chul Youn
    • Dementia and Neurocognitive Disorders
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2022
  • Background and Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) helps with brain development analysis and disease diagnosis. Brain volumes measured from different ages using MRI provides useful information in clinical evaluation and research. Therefore, we trained machine learning models that predict the brain age gap of healthy subjects in the East Asian population using T1 brain MRI volume images. Methods: In total, 154 T1-weighted MRIs of healthy subjects (55-83 years of age) were collected from an East Asian community. The information of age, gender, and education level was collected for each participant. The MRIs of the participants were preprocessed using FreeSurfer(https://surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/) to collect the brain volume data. We trained the models using different supervised machine learning regression algorithms from the scikit-learn (https://scikit-learn.org/) library. Results: The trained models comprised 19 features that had been reduced from 55 brain volume labels. The algorithm BayesianRidge (BR) achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) and r squared (R2) of 3 and 0.3 years, respectively, in predicting the age of the new subjects compared to other regression methods. The results of feature importance analysis showed that the right pallidum, white matter hypointensities on T1-MRI scans, and left hippocampus comprise some of the essential features in predicting brain age. Conclusions: The MAE and R2 accuracies of the BR model predicting brain age gap in the East Asian population showed that the model could reduce the dimensionality of neuroimaging data to provide a meaningful biomarker for individual brain aging.

Application of Support Vector Regression for Improving the Performance of the Emotion Prediction Model (감정예측모형의 성과개선을 위한 Support Vector Regression 응용)

  • Kim, Seongjin;Ryoo, Eunchung;Jung, Min Kyu;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2012
  • .Since the value of information has been realized in the information society, the usage and collection of information has become important. A facial expression that contains thousands of information as an artistic painting can be described in thousands of words. Followed by the idea, there has recently been a number of attempts to provide customers and companies with an intelligent service, which enables the perception of human emotions through one's facial expressions. For example, MIT Media Lab, the leading organization in this research area, has developed the human emotion prediction model, and has applied their studies to the commercial business. In the academic area, a number of the conventional methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to predict human emotion in prior studies. However, MRA is generally criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. This is inevitable since MRA can only explain the linear relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variable. To mitigate the limitations of MRA, some studies like Jung and Kim (2012) have used ANN as the alternative, and they reported that ANN generated more accurate prediction than the statistical methods like MRA. However, it has also been criticized due to over fitting and the difficulty of the network design (e.g. setting the number of the layers and the number of the nodes in the hidden layers). Under this background, we propose a novel model using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in order to increase the prediction accuracy. SVR is an extensive version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) designated to solve the regression problems. The model produced by SVR only depends on a subset of the training data, because the cost function for building the model ignores any training data that is close (within a threshold ${\varepsilon}$) to the model prediction. Using SVR, we tried to build a model that can measure the level of arousal and valence from the facial features. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected the data of facial reactions when providing appropriate visual stimulating contents, and extracted the features from the data. Next, the steps of the preprocessing were taken to choose statistically significant variables. In total, 297 cases were used for the experiment. As the comparative models, we also applied MRA and ANN to the same data set. For SVR, we adopted '${\varepsilon}$-insensitive loss function', and 'grid search' technique to find the optimal values of the parameters like C, d, ${\sigma}^2$, and ${\varepsilon}$. In the case of ANN, we adopted a standard three-layer backpropagation network, which has a single hidden layer. The learning rate and momentum rate of ANN were set to 10%, and we used sigmoid function as the transfer function of hidden and output nodes. We performed the experiments repeatedly by varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer to n/2, n, 3n/2, and 2n, where n is the number of the input variables. The stopping condition for ANN was set to 50,000 learning events. And, we used MAE (Mean Absolute Error) as the measure for performance comparison. From the experiment, we found that SVR achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the hold-out data set compared to MRA and ANN. Regardless of the target variables (the level of arousal, or the level of positive / negative valence), SVR showed the best performance for the hold-out data set. ANN also outperformed MRA, however, it showed the considerably lower prediction accuracy than SVR for both target variables. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to the researchers or practitioners who are willing to build the models for recognizing human emotions.

A Melon Fruit Grading Machine Using a Miniature VIS/NIR Spectrometer: 2. Design Factors for Optimal Interactance Measurement Setup

  • Suh, Sang-Ryong;Lee, Kyeong-Hwan;Yu, Seung-Hwa;Shin, Hwa-Sun;Yoo, Soo-Nam;Choi, Yong-Soo
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: In near infrared spectroscopy, interactance configuration of a light source and a spectrometer probe can provide more information regarding fruit internal attributes, compared to reflectance and transmittance configuration. However, there is no through study on the parameters of interactance measurement setup. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of the parameters on the estimation of soluble solids content (SSC) and firmness of muskmelons. Methods: Melon samples were taken from greenhouses at three different harvesting seasons. The prediction models were developed at three distances of 2, 5, and 8 cm between the light source and the spectrometer probe, three measurement points of 2, 3, and 6 evenly distributed on each sample, and different number of fruit samples for calibration models. The performance of the models was compared. Results: In the test at the three distances, the best results were found at a 5 cm distance. The coefficient of determination ($R_{cv}{^2}$) values of the cross-validation were 0.717 (standard error of prediction, SEP=$1.16^{\circ}Brix$) and 0.504 (SEP=4.31 N) for the estimation of SSC and firmness, respectively. The minimum measurement point required to fully represent the spectral characteristics of each fruit sample was 3. The highest $R_{cv}{^2}$ values were 0.736 (SEP=$0.87^{\circ}Brix$) and 0.644 (SEP=4.16 N) for the estimation of SSC and firmness, respectively. The performance of the models began to be saturated when 60 fruit samples were used for developing calibration models. The highest $R_{cv}{^2}$ of 0.713 (SEP=$0.88^{\circ}Brix$) and 0.750 (SEP=3.30 N) for the estimation of SSC and firmness, respectively, were achieved. Conclusions: The performance of the prediction models was quite different according to the condition of interactance measurement setup. In designing a fruit grading machine with interactance configuration, the parameters for interactance measurement setup should be chosen carefully.

Development of Rapid Prediction Model of C3G Content in Black Pigmented Rice (흑자색미의 C3G 색소함량 신속 예측모델 개발)

  • Ryu Su-Noh;Yang Jong-Jin;Park Sun-Zik
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.50 no.spc1
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    • pp.1-3
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    • 2005
  • It has been reported that Cyanidin 3-Glu-coside (C3G) of the black pigmented rice was as the high anti-oxidency and analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). However, the analysis of C3G by HPLC is needed long pre-treated steps, so development of methods with simple pre-treated steps is needed in order to breed vices with high C3G contents. The analysis of components using near infrared reflectance (NIR) was well known as non pre-treated and nondestructive. C3G contents of Bengjinjubyeo$\times$Suwon425 $F_{10}$ 385 lines were used in order to develop C3G content prediction model in pigmented rice using FT-NIR. The results of C3G content of FT-NIR compared with HPLC were showed that the equation was f(x)=0.9427x+34.0430, $R^2$, standard error of calibration was 0.943, 0.116 and those of validation was 0.928, 0.122, respectively. This prediction model will be able to be used for analyzing C3G contents in black pigmented rice.

Efficiency Algorithm of Multispectral Image Compression in Wavelet Domain (웨이브릿 영역에서 다분광 화상데이터의 효율적인 압축 알고리듬)

  • Ban, Seong-Won;Seok, Jeong-Yeop;Kim, Byeong-Ju;Park, Gyeong-Nam;Kim, Yeong-Chun;Jang, Jong-Guk;Lee, Geon-Il
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.362-370
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, we proposed multispectral image compression method using CIP (classified inter-channel prediction) and SVQ (selective vector quantization) in wavelet domain. First, multispectral image is wavelet transformed and classified into one of three classes considering reflection characteristics of the subband with the lowest resolution. Then, for a reference channel which has the highest correlation and the same resolution with other channels, the variable VQ is performed in the classified intra-channel to remove spatial redundancy. For other channels, the CIP is performed to remove spectral redundancy. Finally, the prediction error is reduced by performing SVQ. Experiments are carried out on a multispectral image. The results show that the proposed method reduce the bit rate at higher reconstructed image quality and improve the compression efficiency compared to conventional methods. Index Terms-Multispectral image compression, wavelet transform, classfied inter-channel prediction, selective vetor quantization, subband with lowest resolution.

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