• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction error methods

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Study on the applicability of regression models and machine learning models for predicting concrete compressive strength

  • Sangwoo Kim;Jinsup Kim;Jaeho Shin;Youngsoon Kim
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.91 no.6
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    • pp.583-589
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    • 2024
  • Accurately predicting the strength of concrete is vital for ensuring the safety and durability of structures, thereby contributing to time and cost savings throughout the design and construction phases. The compressive strength of concrete is determined by various material factors, including the type of cement, composition ratios of concrete mixtures, curing time, and environmental conditions. While mix design establishes the proportions of each material for concrete, predicting strength before experimental measurement remains a challenging task. In this study, Abrams's law was chosen as a representative investigative approach to estimating concrete compressive strength. Abrams asserted that concrete compressive strength depends solely on the water-cement ratio and proposed a logarithmic linear relationship. However, Abrams's law is only applicable to concrete using cement as the sole binding material and may not be suitable for modern concrete mixtures. Therefore, this research aims to predict concrete compressive strength by applying various conventional regression analyses and machine learning methods. Six models were selected based on performance experiment data collected from various literature sources on different concrete mixtures. The models were assessed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) to identify the optimal model.

The Effect of the Telephone Channel to the Performance of the Speaker Verification System (전화선 채널이 화자확인 시스템의 성능에 미치는 영향)

  • 조태현;김유진;이재영;정재호
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.12-20
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, we compared speaker verification performance of the speech data collected in clean environment and in channel environment. For the improvement of the performance of speaker verification gathered in channel, we have studied on the efficient feature parameters in channel environment and on the preprocessing. Speech DB for experiment is consisted of Korean doublet of numbers, considering the text-prompted system. Speech features including LPCC(Linear Predictive Cepstral Coefficient), MFCC(Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient), PLP(Perceptually Linear Prediction), LSP(Line Spectrum Pair) are analyzed. Also, the preprocessing of filtering to remove channel noise is studied. To remove or compensate for the channel effect from the extracted features, cepstral weighting, CMS(Cepstral Mean Subtraction), RASTA(RelAtive SpecTrAl) are applied. Also by presenting the speech recognition performance on each features and the processing, we compared speech recognition performance and speaker verification performance. For the evaluation of the applied speech features and processing methods, HTK(HMM Tool Kit) 2.0 is used. Giving different threshold according to male or female speaker, we compare EER(Equal Error Rate) on the clean speech data and channel data. Our simulation results show that, removing low band and high band channel noise by applying band pass filter(150~3800Hz) in preprocessing procedure, and extracting MFCC from the filtered speech, the best speaker verification performance was achieved from the view point of EER measurement.

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The study of nondestructive evaluation method of paper records materials by NIR spectroscopy (근적외선 분광분석을 이용한 종이기록물의 비파괴 특성평가 연구)

  • Han, Yoon-Hee;Shin, Yong-Min;Park, Soung-Be;Nam, Sung-Un;Kim, Hyo-Jin
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.304-311
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    • 2010
  • Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRs) has been applied for rapid and nondestructive paper measurement by replacing the current destructive method to the property of paper. Current standard methods for the property of paper were pH, moisture, breaking length, and folding endurance, which data were compared with spectrum of FT-NIR spectrometer. Various paper products such as copy, envelope, white, newspaper, as well as old paper produced around 1960~1980 were used as the sample. The correlation ($R^2$) and standard error of prediction (SEP) results for breaking length, folding endurance, moisture and pH are $R^2$=0.914, SEP=0.508, $R^2$=0.926, SEP=0.281, $R^2$=0.941, SEP=0.931, pH $R^2$=0.949, SEP= -0.0631, respectively. This result show that NIRs can be applied to practical application for nondestructive analysis of paper records materials.

Comparison of accuracy of breeding value for cow from three methods in Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population

  • Hyo Sang Lee;Yeongkuk Kim;Doo Ho Lee;Dongwon Seo;Dong Jae Lee;Chang Hee Do;Phuong Thanh N. Dinh;Waruni Ekanayake;Kil Hwan Lee;Duhak Yoon;Seung Hwan Lee;Yang Mo Koo
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.720-734
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, Korea Proven Bulls (KPN) program has been well-developed. Breeding and evaluation of cows are also an essential factor to increase earnings and genetic gain. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of cow breeding value by using three methods (pedigree index [PI], pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction [PBLUP], and genomic-BLUP [GBLUP]). The reference population (n = 16,971) was used to estimate breeding values for 481 females as a test population. The accuracy of GBLUP was 0.63, 0.66, 0.62 and 0.63 for carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back-fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS), respectively. As for the PBLUP method, accuracy of prediction was 0.43 for CWT, 0.45 for EMA, 0.43 for MS, and 0.44 for BFT. Accuracy of PI method was the lowest (0.28 to 0.29 for carcass traits). The increase by approximate 20% in accuracy of GBLUP method than other methods could be because genomic information may explain Mendelian sampling error that pedigree information cannot detect. Bias can cause reducing accuracy of estimated breeding value (EBV) for selected animals. Regression coefficient between true breeding value (TBV) and GBLUP EBV, PBLUP EBV, and PI EBV were 0.78, 0.625, and 0.35, respectively for CWT. This showed that genomic EBV (GEBV) is less biased than PBLUP and PI EBV in this study. In addition, number of effective chromosome segments (Me) statistic that indicates the independent loci is one of the important factors affecting the accuracy of BLUP. The correlation between Me and the accuracy of GBLUP is related to the genetic relationship between reference and test population. The correlations between Me and accuracy were -0.74 in CWT, -0.75 in EMA, -0.73 in MS, and -0.75 in BF, which were strongly negative. These results proved that the estimation of genetic ability using genomic data is the most effective, and the smaller the Me, the higher the accuracy of EBV.

Atmospheric Disturbance Simulation in Adaptive Optics: from Theory to Practice (적응광학에서의 대기 외란 모사: 이론에서 실제 적용까지)

  • Jun Ho Lee;Ji Hyun Pak;Ji Yong Joo;Seok Gi Han;Yongsuk Jung;Youngsoo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2024
  • Predicting the performance of adaptive optics systems is a crucial step in their design and analysis. First-order prediction methods, based primarily on several assumptions and scaling laws, are commonly used. These methods must account for various parameters and error sources, such as the intensity and profile of atmospheric turbulence, fitting errors based on the resolution of the wavefront sensor and deformable mirror, wavefront-sensor noise propagated through the wavefront-reconstruction algorithm, servo lag due to the finite bandwidth of the control loop, and anisoplanatism caused by the arrangement of natural and laser guide stars. However, since first-order performance-prediction methods based on certain assumptions can sometimes yield results that deviate from real-world performance, evaluation through computational simulations and closed-loop tests on a testbed is necessary. Additionally, an atmospheric simulator is required for closed-loop testing, which must adequately simulate the spatial and temporal characteristics of atmospheric disturbances. This paper aims to present an overview of the theory of atmospheric disturbance simulators, as well as their implementation in computational simulation and hardware.

Comparison of Different Multiple Linear Regression Models for Real-time Flood Stage Forecasting (실시간 수위 예측을 위한 다중선형회귀 모형의 비교)

  • Choi, Seung Yong;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Byung Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.1B
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2012
  • Recently to overcome limitations of conceptual, hydrological and physics based models for flood stage forecasting, multiple linear regression model as one of data-driven models have been widely adopted for forecasting flood streamflow(stage). The objectives of this study are to compare performance of different multiple linear regression models according to regression coefficient estimation methods and determine most effective multiple linear regression flood stage forecasting models. To do this, the time scale was determined through the autocorrelation analysis of input data and different flood stage forecasting models developed using regression coefficient estimation methods such as LS(least square), WLS(weighted least square), SPW(stepwise) was applied to flood events in Jungrang stream. To evaluate performance of established models, fours statistical indices were used, namely; Root mean square error(RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSEC), mean absolute error (MAE), adjusted coefficient of determination($R^{*2}$). The results show that the flood stage forecasting model using SPW(stepwise) parameter estimation can carry out the river flood stage prediction better in comparison with others, and the flood stage forecasting model using LS(least square) parameter estimation is also found to be slightly better than the flood stage forecasting model using WLS(weighted least square) parameter estimation.

An estimation method for non-response model using Monte-Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm (Monte-Carlo expectation-maximaization 방법을 이용한 무응답 모형 추정방법)

  • Choi, Boseung;You, Hyeon Sang;Yoon, Yong Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.587-598
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    • 2016
  • In predicting an outcome of election using a variety of methods ahead of the election, non-response is one of the major issues. Therefore, to address the non-response issue, a variety of methods of non-response imputation may be employed, but the result of forecasting tend to vary according to methods. In this study, in order to improve electoral forecasts, we studied a model based method of non-response imputation attempting to apply the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm, introduced by Wei and Tanner (1990). The MCEM algorithm using maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) is applied to solve the boundary solution problem under the non-ignorable non-response mechanism. We performed the simulation studies to compare estimation performance among MCEM, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation method. The results of simulation studies showed that MCEM method can be a reasonable candidate for non-response model estimation. We also applied MCEM method to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012 and investigated prediction performance using modified within precinct error (MWPE) criterion (Bautista et al., 2007).

Predictive Analysis of Fire Risk Factors in Gyeonggi-do Using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 경기도 화재위험요인 예측분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Castillo Osorio, Ever Enrique;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.351-361
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    • 2021
  • The seriousness of fire is rising because fire causes enormous damage to property and human life. Therefore, this study aims to predict various risk factors affecting fire by fire type. The predictive analysis of fire factors was carried out targeting Gyeonggi-do, which has the highest number of fires in the country. For the analysis, using machine learning methods SVM (Support Vector Machine), RF (Random Forest), GBRT (Gradient Boosted Regression Tree) the accuracy of each model was presented with a high fit model through MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), and based on this, predictive analysis of fire factors in Gyeonggi-do was conducted. In addition, using machine learning methods such as SVM (Support Vector Machine), RF (Random Forest), and GBRT (Gradient Boosted Regression Tree), the accuracy of each model was presented with a high-fit model through MAE and RMSE. Predictive analysis of occurrence factors was achieved. Based on this, as a result of comparative analysis of three machine learning methods, the RF method showed a MAE = 1.765 and RMSE = 1.876, as well as the MAE and RMSE verification and test data were very similar with a difference between MAE = 0.046 and RMSE = 0.04 showing the best predictive results. The results of this study are expected to be used as useful data for fire safety management allowing decision makers to identify the sequence of dangers related to the factors affecting the occurrence of fire.

Application of Near Infrared Spectroscopy for Nondestructive Evaluation of Nitrogen Content in Ginseng

  • Lin, Gou-lin;Sohn, Mi-Ryeong;Kim, Eun-Ok;Kwon, Young-Kil;Cho, Rae-Kwang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1528-1528
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    • 2001
  • Ginseng cultivated in different country or growing condition has generally different components such as saponin and protein, and it relates to efficacy and action. Protein content assumes by nitrogen content in ginseng radix. Nitrogen content could be determined by chemical analysis such as kjeldahl or extraction methods. However, these methods require long analysis time and result environmental pollution and sample damage. In this work we investigated possibility of non-destructive determination of nitrogen content in ginseng radix using near-infrared spectroscopy. Ginseng radix, root of Panax ginseng C. A. Meyer, was studied. Total 120 samples were used in this study and it was consisted of 6 sample sets, 4, 5 and 6-year-old Korea ginseng and 7, 8 and 9-year-old China ginseng, respectively. Each sample set has 20 sample. Nigrogen content was measured by electronic analysis. NIR reflectance spectra were collected over the 1100 to 2500 nm spectral region with a InfraAlyzer 500C (Bran+Luebbe, Germany) equipped with a halogen lapmp and PbS detector and data were collected every 2 nm data point intervals. The calibration models were carried out by multiple linear regression (MLR) and partial least squares (PLS) analysis using IDAS and SESAME software. Result of electronic analysis, Korean ginseng were different mean value in nitrogen content of China ginseng. Ginseng tend to generally decrease the nitrogen content according as cultivation year is over 6 years. The MLR calibration model with 8 wavelengths using IDAS software accurately predicted nitrogen contents with correlation coefficient (R) and standard error of prediction of 0.985 and 0.855%, respectively. In case of SESAME software, the MLR calibration with 9 wavelength was selected the best calibration, R and SEP were 0.972 and 0.596%, respectively. The PLSR calibration model result in 0.969 of R and 0.630 of RMSEP. This study shows the NIR spectroscopy could be applied to determine the nitrogen content in ginseng radix with high accuracy.

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Prediction methods for two-phase flow frictional pressure drop of FC-72 in parallel micro-channels (병렬 마이크로 채널에서 FC-72의 2상 유동 마찰 압력 강하 예측)

  • Choi, Yong-Seok;Lim, Tae-Woo;You, Sam-Sang
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.38 no.7
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    • pp.821-827
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    • 2014
  • In this study, an experimental study was performed to predict the two-phase frictional pressure drop of FC-72 in parallel micro-channels. The parallel micro-channels consist of 15 channels with depth 0.2 mm, width 0.45 mm and length 60 mm. And tests were performed in the ranges of mass fluxes from 152.2 to $584.2kg/m^2s$ and heat fluxes from 7.5 to $28.3kW/m^2$. The experimental data was compared and analyzed with existing correlations to predict the pressure drop. The existing methods to predict the pressure drop used the homogeneous model and the separated model. In this study, the new correlation was proposed by modified existing correlation using the separated model, and the new correlation predicted consequently with the experimental data within MAE of 9.6%.