• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction accuracy

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Improvements for Atmospheric Motion Vectors Algorithm Using First Guess by Optical Flow Method (옵티컬 플로우 방법으로 계산된 초기 바람 추정치에 따른 대기운동벡터 알고리즘 개선 연구)

  • Oh, Yurim;Park, Hyungmin;Kim, Jae Hwan;Kim, Somyoung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_1
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    • pp.763-774
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    • 2020
  • Wind data forecasted from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is generally used as the first-guess of the target tracking process to obtain the atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs) because it increases tracking accuracy and reduce computational time. However, there is a contradiction that the NWP model used as the first-guess is used again as the reference in the AMVs verification process. To overcome this problem, model-independent first guesses are required. In this study, we propose the AMVs derivation from Lucas and Kanade optical flow method and then using it as the first guess. To retrieve AMVs, Himawari-8/AHI geostationary satellite level-1B data were used at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC from August 19 to September 5, 2015. To evaluate the impact of applying the optical flow method on the AMV derivation, cross-validation has been conducted in three ways as follows. (1) Without the first-guess, (2) NWP (KMA/UM) forecasted wind as the first-guess, and (3) Optical flow method based wind as the first-guess. As the results of verification using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the highest precision (RMSVD: 5.296-5.804 ms-1) was obtained using optical flow based winds as the first-guess. In addition, the computation speed for AMVs derivation was the slowest without the first-guess test, but the other two had similar performance. Thus, applying the optical flow method in the target tracking process of AMVs algorithm, this study showed that the optical flow method is very effective as a first guess for model-independent AMVs derivation.

The Impact of Milk Production Level on Profit Traits of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 생산수준이 젖소의 수익형질에 미치는 효과)

  • Do, Changhee;Park, Suhun;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Yunho;Choi, Taejeong;Park, Byungho;Yun, Hobaek;Lee, Donghee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2013
  • Data including 1,372,050 milk records pertaining to 438,019 cows from 1983 to 2011 collected during performance tests conducted by the National Livestock Cooperative Dairy Improvement Center were used to calculate milk income and profit of individuals and investigate the effects of production levels of early lactation (parity 1 and 2, respectively). Individuals with a moderate level of early lactation stayed longer in herds. Among parity 1, the 9,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactations than the overall mean of 3.13. The 7,000 kg or lower and 10,000 kg or higher groups had lower mean life time milking days than the overall mean of 1,076.8 days. Standard deviations of lifetime traits tended to decrease as production levels increased. For parity 2, the 11,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactation than the overall mean of 3.43. The lifetime milking days was highest in the 12,000 kg group (1,212.0 days), and generally smaller in the lower groups. Profit increased as the production level of groups increased for both parity 1 and 2. In groups with low production levels, profit of parity 1 was higher than that of parity 2, while the reverse was true in groups with high production levels. These results suggest that individuals in the low production groups had a greater likelihood to be culled due to reproductive or other problems. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction of lifetime profit of individuals with a milk yield of 305 days seems to be higher for parity 2 than parity 1; therefore, it is desirable to predict lifetime profit using the 305d milk yield of parity 2. In conclusion, breeding goals are based on many factors in functions for the estimation of profit; however, production levels during early lactation (parity 1 and 2) can be used as indicators of profit to extend profitability.

Habitat Distribution Change Prediction of Asiatic Black Bears (Ursus thibetanus) Using Maxent Modeling Approach (Maxent 모델을 이용한 반달가슴곰의 서식지 분포변화 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Yang, DooHa;Cho, YoungHo;Song, Kyo-Hong;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears' appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears' potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature's annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human's intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China's southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku's border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear's habitat, artificially introduced individual bear's release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.

A Review on Ultimate Lateral Capacity Prediction of Rigid Drilled Shafts Installed in Sand (사질토에 설치된 강성현장타설말뚝의 극한수평지지력 예측에 관한 재고)

  • Cho Nam Jun;Kulhawy F.H
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2005
  • An understanding of soil-structure interaction is the key to rational and economical design for laterally loaded drilled shafts. It is very difficult to formulate the ultimate lateral capacity into a general equation because of the inherent soil nonlincarity, nonhomogeneity, and complexity enhanced by the three dimensional and asymmetric nature of the problem though extensive research works on the behavior of deep foundations subjected to lateral loads have been conducted for several decades. This study reviews the four most well known methods (i.e., Reese, Broms, Hansen, and Davidson) among many design methods according to the specific site conditions, the drilled shaft geometric characteristics (D/B ratios), and the loading conditions. And the hyperbolic lateral capacities (H$_h$) interpreted by the hyperbolic transformation of the load-displacement curves obtained from model tests carried out as a part of this research have been compared with the ultimate lateral capacities (Hu) predicted by the four methods. The H$_u$ / H$_h$ ratios from Reese's and Hansen's methods are 0.966 and 1.015, respectively, which shows both the two methods yield results very close to the test results. Whereas the H$_u$ predicted by Davidson's method is larger than H$_h$ by about $30\%$, the C.0.V. of the predicted lateral capacities by Davidson is the smallest among the four. Broms' method, the simplest among the few methods, gives H$_u$ / H$_h$ : 0.896, which estimates the ultimate lateral capacity smaller than the others because some other resisting sources against lateral loading are neglected in this method. But it results in one of the most reliable methods with the smallest S.D. in predicting the ultimate lateral capacity. Conclusively, none of the four can be superior to the others in a sense of the accuracy of predicting the ultimate lateral capacity. Also, regardless of how sophisticated or complicated the calculating procedures are, the reliability in the lateral capacity predictions seems to be a different issue.

Nonhydrostatic Effects on Convectively Forced Mesoscale Flows (대류가 유도하는 중규모 흐름에 미치는 비정역학 효과)

  • Woo, Sora;Baik, Jong-Jin;Lee, Hyunho;Han, Ji-Young;Seo, Jaemyeong Mango
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.293-305
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    • 2013
  • Nonhydrostatic effects on convectively forced mesoscale flows in two dimensions are numerically investigated using a nondimensional model. An elevated heating that represents convective heating due to deep cumulus convection is specified in a uniform basic flow with constant stability, and numerical experiments are performed with different values of the nonlinearity factor and nonhydrostaticity factor. The simulation result in a linear system is first compared to the analytic solution. The simulated vertical velocity field is very similar to the analytic one, confirming the high accuracy of nondimensional model's solutions. When the nonhydrostaticity factor is small, alternating regions of upward and downward motion above the heating top appear. On the other hand, when the nonhydrostaticity factor is relatively large, alternating updraft and downdraft cells appear downwind of the main updraft region. These features according to the nonhydrostaticity factor appear in both linear and nonlinear flow systems. The location of the maximum vertical velocity in the main updraft region differs depending on the degrees of nonlinearity and nonhydrostaticity. Using the Taylor-Goldstein equation in a linear, steady-state, invscid system, it is analyzed that evanescent waves exist for a given nonhydrostaticity factor. The critical wavelength of an evanescent wave is given by ${\lambda}_c=2{\pi}{\beta}$, where ${\beta}$ is the nonhydrostaticity factor. Waves whose wavelengths are smaller than the critical wavelength become evanescent. The alternating updraft and downdraft cells are formed by the superposition of evanescent waves and horizontally propagating parts of propagating waves. Simulation results show that the horizontal length of the updraft and downdraft cells is the half of the critical wavelength (${\pi}{\beta}$) in a linear flow system and larger than ${\pi}{\beta}$ in a weakly nonlinear flow system.

Comparison of Breeding Value by Establishment of Genomic Relationship Matrix in Pure Landrace Population (유전체 관계행렬 구성에 따른 Landrace 순종돈의 육종가 비교)

  • Lee, Joon-Ho;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Cho, Chung-Il;Park, Kyung-Do;Lee, Deuk Hwan
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.165-171
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    • 2013
  • Genomic relationship matrix (GRM) was constructed using whole genome SNP markers of swine and genomic breeding value was estimated by substitution of the numerator relationship matrix (NRM) based on pedigree information to GRM. Genotypes of 40,706 SNP markers from 448 pure Landrace pigs were used in this study and five kinds of GRM construction methods, G05, GMF, GOF, $GOF^*$ and GN, were compared with each other and with NRM. Coefficients of GOF considering each of observed allele frequencies showed the lowest deviation with coefficients of NRM and as coefficients of GMF considering the average minor allele frequency showed huge deviation from coefficients of NRM, movement of mean was expected by methods of allele frequency consideration. All GRM construction methods, except for $GOF^*$, showed normally distributed Mendelian sampling. As the result of breeding value (BV) estimation for days to 90 kg (D90KG) and average back-fat thickness (ABF) using NRM and GRM, correlation between BV of NRM and GRM was the highest by GOF and as genetic variance was overestimated by $GOF^*$, it was confirmed that scale of GRM is closely related with estimation of genetic variance. With the same amount of phenotype information, accuracy of BV based on genomic information was higher than BV based on pedigree information and these symptoms were more obvious for ABF then D90KG. Genetic evaluation of animal using relationship matrix by genomic information could be useful when there is lack of phenotype or relationship and prediction of BV for young animals without phenotype.

Predicting the Goshawk's habitat area using Species Distribution Modeling: Case Study area Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea (종분포모형을 이용한 참매의 서식지 예측 -충청북도를 대상으로-)

  • Cho, Hae-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Shin, Man-Seok;Kang, Tehan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2015
  • This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.

Analysis and Prediction of Sewage Components of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Neural Network (대도시 하수종말처리장 유입 하수의 성상 평가와 인공신경망을 이용한 구성성분 농도 예측)

  • Jeong, Hyeong-Seok;Lee, Sang-Hyung;Shin, Hang-Sik;Song, Eui-Yeol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.308-315
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    • 2006
  • Since sewage characteristics are the most important factors that can affect the biological reactions in wastewater treatment plants, a detailed understanding on the characteristics and on-line measurement techniques of the influent sewage would play an important role in determining the appropriate control strategies. In this study, samples were taken at two hour intervals during 51 days from $1^{st}$ October to $21^{st}$ November 2005 from the influent gate of sewage treatment plant. Then the characteristics of sewage were investigated. It was found that the daily values of flow rate and concentrations of sewage components showed a defined profile. The highest and lowest peak values were observed during $11:00{\sim}13:00$ hours and $05:00{\sim}07:00$ hours, respectively. Also, it was shown that the concentrations of sewage components were strongly correlated with the absorbance measured at 300 nm of UV. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to develop on-line estimation technique of the concentration of each component in the sewage using accumulated profiles of sewage, absorbance, and flow rate which can be measured in real time. As a first step, regression analysis was performed using the absorbance and component concentration data. Then a neural network trained with the input of influent flow rate, absorbance, and inflow duration was used. Both methods showed remarkable accuracy in predicting the resulting concentrations of the individual components of the sewage. In case of using the neural network, the predicted value md of the measurement were 19.3 and 14.4 for TSS, 26.7 and 25.1 for TCOD, 5.4 and 4.1 for TN, and for TP, 0.45 to 0.39, respectively.

An Empirical Model for Forecasting Alternaria Leaf Spot in Apple (사과 점무늬낙엽병(斑點落葉病)예찰을 위한 한 경험적 모델)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe;Cho, Won-Dae;Kim, Seung-Chul
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.25 no.4 s.69
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 1986
  • An empirical model to predict initial disease occurrence and subsequent progress of Alternaria leaf spot was constructed based on the modified degree day temperature and frequency of rainfall in three years field experiments. Climatic factors were analized 10-day bases, beginning April 20 to the end of August, and were used as variables for model construction. Cumulative degree portion (CDP) that is over $10^{\circ}C$ in the daily average temperature was used as a parameter to determine the relationship between temperature and initial disease occurrence. Around one hundred and sixty of CDP was needed to initiate disease incidence. This value was considered as temperature threshhold. After reaching 160 CDP, time of initial occurrence was determined by frequency of rainfall. At least four times of rainfall were necessary to be accumulated for initial occurrence of the disease after passing temperature threshhold. Disease progress after initial incidence generally followed the pattern of frequency of rainfall accumulated in those periods. Apparent infection rate (r) in the general differential equation dx/dt=xr(1-x) for individual epidemics when x is disease proportion and t is time, was a linear function of accumulation rate of rainfall frequency (Rc) and was able to be directly estimated based on the equation r=1.06Rc-0.11($R^2=0.993$). Disease severity (x) after t time could be predicted using exponential equation $[x/(1-x)]=[x_0/(1-x)]e^{(b_0+b_1R_c)t}$ derived from the differential equation, when $x_0$ is initial disease, $b_0\;and\;b_1$ are constants. There was a significant linear relationship between disease progress and cumulative number of air-borne conidia of Alternaria mali. When the cumulative number of air-borne conidia was used as an independent variable to predict disease severity, accuracy of prediction was poor with $R^2=0.3328$.

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Personalized Exhibition Booth Recommendation Methodology Using Sequential Association Rule (순차 연관 규칙을 이용한 개인화된 전시 부스 추천 방법)

  • Moon, Hyun-Sil;Jung, Min-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Kim, Hyea-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.195-211
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    • 2010
  • An exhibition is defined as market events for specific duration to present exhibitors' main product range to either business or private visitors, and it also plays a key role as effective marketing channels. Especially, as the effect of the opinions of the visitors after the exhibition impacts directly on sales or the image of companies, exhibition organizers must consider various needs of visitors. To meet needs of visitors, ubiquitous technologies have been applied in some exhibitions. However, despite of the development of the ubiquitous technologies, their services cannot always reflect visitors' preferences as they only generate information when visitors request. As a result, they have reached their limit to meet needs of visitors, which consequently might lead them to loss of marketing opportunity. Recommendation systems can be the right type to overcome these limitations. They can recommend the booths to coincide with visitors' preferences, so that they help visitors who are in difficulty for choices in exhibition environment. One of the most successful and widely used technologies for building recommender systems is called Collaborative Filtering. Traditional recommender systems, however, only use neighbors' evaluations or behaviors for a personalized prediction. Therefore, they can not reflect visitors' dynamic preference, and also lack of accuracy in exhibition environment. Although there is much useful information to infer visitors' preference in ubiquitous environment (e.g., visitors' current location, booth visit path, and so on), they use only limited information for recommendation. In this study, we propose a booth recommendation methodology using Sequential Association Rule which considers the sequence of visiting. Recent studies of Sequential Association Rule use the constraints to improve the performance. However, since traditional Sequential Association Rule considers the whole rules to recommendation, they have a scalability problem when they are adapted to a large exhibition scale. To solve this problem, our methodology composes the confidence database before recommendation process. To compose the confidence database, we first search preceding rules which have the frequency above threshold. Next, we compute the confidences of each preceding rules to each booth which is not contained in preceding rules. Therefore, the confidence database has two kinds of information which are preceding rules and their confidence to each booth. In recommendation process, we just generate preceding rules of the target visitors based on the records of the visits, and recommend booths according to the confidence database. Throughout these steps, we expect reduction of time spent on recommendation process. To evaluate proposed methodology, we use real booth visit records which are collected by RFID technology in IT exhibition. Booth visit records also contain the visit sequence of each visitor. We compare the performance of proposed methodology with traditional Collaborative Filtering system. As a result, our proposed methodology generally shows higher performance than traditional Collaborative Filtering. We can also see some features of it in experimental results. First, it shows the highest performance at one booth recommendation. It detects preceding rules with some portions of visitors. Therefore, if there is a visitor who moved with very a different pattern compared to the whole visitors, it cannot give a correct recommendation for him/her even though we increase the number of recommendation. Trained by the whole visitors, it cannot correctly give recommendation to visitors who have a unique path. Second, the performance of general recommendation systems increase as time expands. However, our methodology shows higher performance with limited information like one or two time periods. Therefore, not only can it recommend even if there is not much information of the target visitors' booth visit records, but also it uses only small amount of information in recommendation process. We expect that it can give real?time recommendations in exhibition environment. Overall, our methodology shows higher performance ability than traditional Collaborative Filtering systems, we expect it could be applied in booth recommendation system to satisfy visitors in exhibition environment.