• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.299-316
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• 2008

The intensive upper-air observation network was organized over southwestern region of the Korean Peninsula during the Korea Enhanced Observing Program in 2005 (KEOP-2005). In order to examine the effect of additional upper-air observation on the numerical weather forecasting, three Observing System Experiments (OSEs) using Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with KEOP-2005 data are conducted. Cold start case with KEOP-2005 data presents a remarkable predictability difference with only conventional observation data in the downstream and along the Changma front area. The sensitivity of the predictability tends to decrease under the stable atmosphere. Our results indicates that the effect of intensive observation plays a role in the forecasting of the sensitive area in the numerical model, especially under the unstable atmospheric conditions. When the intensive upper-air observation data (KEOP-2005 data) are included in the OSEs, the predictability of precipitation is partially improved. Especially, when KEOP-2005 data are assimilated at 6-hour interval, the predictability on the heavy rainfall showing higher Critical Success Index (CSI) is highly improved. Therefore it is found that KEOP-2005 data play an important role in improving the position and intensity of the simulated precipitation system.

• 대기
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.235-249
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• 2017

This paper describes methodology verifying near-surface predictability of numerical weather prediction models against the surface synoptic weather station network (SYNOP) observation. As verification variables, temperature, wind, humidity-related variables, total cloud cover, and surface pressure are included in this tool. Quality controlled SYNOP observation through the pre-processing for data assimilation is used. To consider the difference of topographic height between observation and model grid points, vertical inter/extrapolation is applied for temperature, humidity, and surface pressure verification. This verification algorithm is applied for verifying medium-range forecasts by a global forecasting model developed by Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems to measure the near-surface predictability of the model and to evaluate the capability of the developed verification tool. It is found that the verification of near-surface prediction against SYNOP observation shows consistency with verification of upper atmosphere against global radiosonde observation, suggesting reliability of those data and demonstrating importance of verification against in-situ measurement as well. Although verifying modeled total cloud cover with observation might have limitation due to the different definition between the model and observation, it is also capable to diagnose the relative bias of model predictability such as a regional reliability and diurnal evolution of the bias.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.1123-1127
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• 2012

P-gp (P-glycoprotein) is a member of the ATP binding cassette (ABC) family of transporters. It transports many kinds of anticancer drugs out of the cell. It plays a major role as a cause of multidrug resistance (MDR). MDR function may be a cause of the failure of chemotherapy in cancer and influence pharmacokinetic properties of many drugs. Hence classification of candidate drugs as substrates or nonsubstrate of the P-gp is important in drug development. Therefore to identify whether a compound is a P-gp substrate or not, in silico method is promising. Recursive Partitioning (RP) method was explored for prediction of P-gp substrate. A set of 261 compounds, including 146 substrates and 115 nonsubstrates of P-gp, was used to training and validation. Using molecular descriptors that we can interpret their own meaning, we have established two models for prediction of P-gp substrates. In the first model, we chose only 6 descriptors which have simple physical meaning. In the training set, the overall predictability of our model is 78.95%. In case of test set, overall predictability is 69.23%. Second model with 2D and 3D descriptors shows a little better predictability (overall predictability of training set is 79.29%, test set is 79.37%), the second model with 2D and 3D descriptors shows better discriminating power than first model with only 2D descriptors. This approach will be used to reduce the number of compounds required to be run in the P-gp efflux assay.

• 대기
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.403-414
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• 2018

Predictability of Northern Hemisphere blocking in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) is evaluated for the period of July 2016 to May 2017. Using the operational model output, blocking is defined by a meridional gradient reversal of 500-hPa geopotential height as Tibaldi-Molteni Index. Its predictability is quantified by computing the critical success index and bias score against ERA-Interim data. It turns out that Northwest Pacific blockings, among others, are reasonably well predicted with a forecast lead time of 2~3 days. The highest prediction skill is found in spring with 3.5 lead days, whereas the lowest prediction skill is observed in autumn with 2.25 lead days. Although further analyses are needed with longer dataset, this result suggests that Northern Hemisphere blocking is not well predicted in the operational weather prediction model beyond a short-term weather prediction limit. In the spring, summer, and autumn periods, there was a tendency to overestimate the Western North Pacific blocking.

• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.170-177
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 기상청 연구개발 사업을 통해 개발된 PNU/CME 접합대순환 모형(CGCM)을 이용하여 적도 태평양에서의 엘니뇨 및 라니냐 현상에 대한 장기 예측성을 해수면온도 상관관계와 숙련도를 통해 살펴보았다. 이를 위하여 PNU/CME CGCM을 활용한 전구규모의 기후 예측을 위하여 1979년부터 2004년까지 매해 1월, 4월, 7월, 10월초를 초기조건으로 하여 12개월 후보 적분을 수행했다(각 적분은 APR RUN, JUL RUN, OCT RUN, JAN RUN 이라 명명한다). 또한 각 12개월 후보 적분은 5개의 앙상블로 구성되었다. 4계절로부터 출발한 모든 적분에서 12개월의 리드가 지난 이후에도 상대적으로 높은 상관이 적도 태평양에서 유지되었다. 특히, 본 연구에서 사용된 모형의 적도 해수면온도 아노말리 예측성은 6개월의 리드까지 뛰어나다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 엘니뇨와 라니냐에 대한 예측성을 평가하기 위해서 Hit rate와 False alarm rate 등의 다양한 숙련도를 구해본 결과, PNU/CME CGCM은 적도 태평양 지역에서의 온난 아노말리와 한랭 아노말리를 예측하는데 있어서는 좋은 예측성을 보였다. 그러나 보통 상태에 대한 예측성은 상대적으로 다소 낮았다. 또한 본 연구에 사용한 모형 결과를 DEMETER 사업에 참여하고 있는 다른 접합대순환 모형들의 예측성과도 비교해 보았을 때, 본 연구에 사용한 모형은 DEMETER 사업에 참여한 모형들에 견줄 수 있는 장기 예측 능력을 갖고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 결론적으로 Nino3.4 지역의 해수면온도 아노말리를 예측할 수 있는 능력을 통해서 살펴볼 때 PNU/CME CGCM은 엘니뇨 및 라니냐 해에 대해서는 6개월까지는 높은 예측성이 있다고 판단되며 최장 12개월 정도의 장기 예측 능력이 있다는 결론을 얻었다.

• 대기
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.255-268
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• 2009

Based on the pilot reports (PIREPs) collected in South Korea from 2003 to 2008 and corresponding Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) analysis data of 30 km resolution, we validate the Korean Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm (KITFA) system that predicts clear-air turbulence (CAT) above the Korean peninsula. The CATs considered in this study are the upper level (higher than 20000 ft) turbulence excluding convectively induced turbulences. In the KITFA system, there are two main processes for predicting CATs: to select CAT indices and to determine their weighting scores. With the PIREPs observed for much longer period than those used in the current operational version of the KITFA system (March 4-April 8 of 2002), three improvable processes of the current KITFA system, re-calculation of weighting scores, change of method to calculate weighting scores, and re-selection of CAT indices, are tested. The largest increase of predictability is presented when CAT indices are selected by using longer PIREP data, with the minor change using different methods in calculation of weighting scores. The predictability is the largest in wintertime, and it is likely due to that most CAT indices are related to the jet stream that is strongest in wintertime. This result suggests that selecting proper CAT indices and calculating their weighting scores based on the longer PIREPs used in this study are required to improve the current KITFA.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.460-475
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• 2015

A number of heavy rainfall events on the Korean Peninsula are indirectly influenced by tropical cyclones (TCs) when they are located in southeastern China. In this study, a heavy rainfall case in the middle Korean region is selected to examine the influence of typhoon simulation performance on predictability of remote rainfall over Korea as well as direct rainfall over Taiwan. Four different numerical experiments are conducted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, toggling on and off two different improvements on typhoon in the model initial condition (IC), which are TC bogussing initialization and dropwindsonde observation data assimilation (DA). The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory TC initialization algorithm is implemented to generate the bogused vortex instead of the initial typhoon, while the airborne observation obtained from dropwindsonde is applied by WRF Three-dimensional variational data assimilation. Results show that use of both TC initialization and DA improves predictability of TC track as well as rainfall over Korea and Taiwan. Without any of IC improvement usage, the intensity of TC is underestimated during the simulation. Using TC initialization alone improves simulation of direct rainfall but not of indirect rainfall, while using DA alone has a negative impact on the TC track forecast. This study confirms that the well-suited TC simulation over southeastern China improves remote rainfall predictability over Korea as well as TC direct rainfall over Taiwan.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.403-412
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• 2018

In this study, a three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation system was developed for the operational numerical weather prediction(NWP) system at the Republic of Korea Air Force Weather Group. The Air Force NWP system utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) meso-scale regional model to provide weather information for the military service. Thus, the data assimilation system was developed based on the WRF model. Experiments were conducted to identify the nested model domain to assimilate observations and the period appropriate in estimating the background error covariance(BEC) in 3DVAR. The assimilation of observations in domain 2 is beneficial to improve 24-h forecasts in domain 3. The 24-h forecast performance does not change much depending on the estimation period of the BEC in 3DVAR. The results of this study provide a basis to establish the operational data assimilation system for the Republic of Korea Air Force Weather Group.

• 대기
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.287-298
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• 2012

The predictability of heavy precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is studied using THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. The performance of the six ensemble models is compared through the inconsistency (or jumpiness) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for MSLP, T850 and H500. Grand Ensemble (GE) of the three best ensemble models (ECMWF, UKMO and CMA) with equal weight and without bias correction is consisted. The jumpiness calculated in this study indicates that the GE is more consistent than each single ensemble model. Brier Score (BS) of precipitation also shows that the GE outperforms. The GE is used for a case study of a heavy rainfall event in Korean Peninsula on 9 July 2009. The probability forecast of precipitation using 90 members of the GE and the percentage of 90 members exceeding 90 percentile in climatological Probability Density Function (PDF) of observed precipitation are calculated. As the GE is excellent in possibility of potential detection of heavy rainfall, GE is more skillful than the single ensemble model and can lead to a heavy rainfall warning in medium-range. If the performance of each single ensemble model is also improved, GE can provide better performance.

• 마케팅과학연구
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.39-54
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• 2006

기업의 마케터들은 어느 때보다 빨라진 소비자 욕구의 변화와 경쟁제품 출시에 대응하여 신제품 성공의 확률을 극대화시키려 노력한다. 소비자의 욕구에 맞는 신제품을 개발하기 위해 활용되는 기법 중 하나가 컨조인트분석이다. 본 논문은 컨조인트기법 중 가장 널리 이용되는 전통적 컨조인트분석과 선택형 컨조인트분석의 예측력을 비교하는데 초점을 맞추었으며 그 대상으로 병원산업을 선택하였다. 모형간 예측력 비교를 위해 전통적 컴조인트분석과 선택형 컨조인트분석 중심으로 4가지 모형을 선정하였다. 분석결과, 전통적 컨조인트와 선택형 컨조인트를 결합한 혼합형 컨조인트기법의 예측력이 가장 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 각 모형에서 추정된 모수간의 일관성도 높은 것으로 나타났다.