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http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2018.28.4.403

Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in the KMA GDAPS during 2016~2017  

Roh, Joon-Woo (The Research Institute of Basic Sciences, Seoul National University)
Cho, Hyeong-Oh (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Son, Seok-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Baek, Hee-Jeong (Numerical Data Application Division, Numerical Modeling Center, Korea Meteorological Administration)
Boo, Kyung-On (Numerical Model Development Division, Numerical Modeling Center, Korea Meteorological Administration)
Lee, Jung-Kyung (Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Atmosphere / v.28, no.4, 2018 , pp. 403-414 More about this Journal
Abstract
Predictability of Northern Hemisphere blocking in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) is evaluated for the period of July 2016 to May 2017. Using the operational model output, blocking is defined by a meridional gradient reversal of 500-hPa geopotential height as Tibaldi-Molteni Index. Its predictability is quantified by computing the critical success index and bias score against ERA-Interim data. It turns out that Northwest Pacific blockings, among others, are reasonably well predicted with a forecast lead time of 2~3 days. The highest prediction skill is found in spring with 3.5 lead days, whereas the lowest prediction skill is observed in autumn with 2.25 lead days. Although further analyses are needed with longer dataset, this result suggests that Northern Hemisphere blocking is not well predicted in the operational weather prediction model beyond a short-term weather prediction limit. In the spring, summer, and autumn periods, there was a tendency to overestimate the Western North Pacific blocking.
Keywords
Blocking; predictability; KMA GDAPS; Tibaldi-Molteni Index;
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