• Title/Summary/Keyword: portfolio decision making

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An Analysis of Household Portfolio Changes and Household Characteristics : Financial decision making patterns during the economic crisis under IMF trusteeship (시장환경의 변화에 따른 가계포트폴리오 변화유형 및 각 유형별 가계특성 분석 : IMF 경제위기동안의 재무의사결정 유형)

  • 박주영;최현자
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2002
  • The instability in the current financial market caused consumers a lot of difficulties in their financial decision making. The purpose of this study is to classify the changes in household portfolios during the economic crisis under IMF-trusteeship (IMF Crisis hereafter), and to examine the characteristics of the households according to the types of household portfolio changes. The data were taken from 1996 and 1999 Korean Household Panel Studies, and 1,293 households were selected for the final analysis. Methods of analysis included frequencies, percentages, Chi-square tests, F-tests, and t-tests. Major findings are as follows: 1. In the midst of the financial market changes during the period of the IMF crisis, consumers tended to manage their household portfolio differently according to their household characteristics. 2. The changes of household portfolio can be classified into two different types: the changed type (44.4%) and the unchanged type(55.6%). There are significant differences in the level of wealth, family life cycle stage, housing tenure, and the household head's job, between the changed type and the unchanged type. The family members of the unchanged type are more likely to be older and relatively wealthy compared with the families in the changed type. 3. The changes of household portfolio can be further classified into six different types: the unchanged-liquidity type (21%), the unchanged-multiplication type (24.6%), the unchanged-insurance type (9.8%), the changed-to-liquidity type (13.9%), the changed-to-multiplication type (13.0%), and the changed-to-insurance type (17.5%). There are significant differences in income level, wealth level, family life cycle stage, housing tenure, and the job of household head among the six types of changes.

Decision Supporting Methodology and System Based on Theory of Constraints for Optimal Product Portfolio Strategy in Shipbuilding Industry (제약이론을 기반으로 한 최적제품조합 의사결정 지원 방법론 및 시스템)

  • Kim, In-Il;Han, Seong-Hwan;Kwon, Min-Chull
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.362-371
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    • 2009
  • Shipbuilding is a typical 'build to order' industry. It has a business model that generates revenues from building various ships and offshore products in accordance with owner's requirements at each production stage. Under uncertainty in shipping market, it is very essential for the shipbuilder to prepare the fast and competitive decision for product portfolio strategy in order to maximize contribution margin by exploiting production facilities and constraints. In this study, we introduce the unique decision supporting methodology for the optimal product portfolio sets based on Theory of Constraints(TOC). This methodology is established by adopting the concept of Drum Buffer Rope(DBR) in constraints planning and Throughput Accounting (TA) in management accounting of TOC. In addition, Decision Supporting System(DSS) is implemented. This DSS system provides a throughput estimator with reflecting the cost structure of shipbuilding industry and a resource simulator built on heuristic algorithms to operate major constraint-resources in shipyard such as dock, quay and pre-erection area etc. Several examples are presented to show that the proposed methodology and system can effectively support the strategic decision-making process of a global shipbuilding company.

A Study on Development of Policy Attributes Taxonomy for Data-based Decision Making (데이터기반 의사결정을 위한 정책 및 사업 속성 분류체계 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Sarang
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Due to the complexity of policy environment in modern society, it is accepted as common basics of policy design to mix up a variety of policy instruments aiming the multiple functions. However, under the current situation of written-down policy specification, not only the public officers but also the policy researchers cannot easily grasp such frameworks as policy portfolio. The purpose of this study is to develop "Policy Attributes Taxonomy" identifying and classifying the public programs to help making decisions for allocative efficiency with effectiveness-based information. Design/methodology/approach To figure out the main scheme and classification criteria of Policy Attributes Taxonomy which represents characteristics of public policies, previous theories and researches on policy components were explored. In addition, to test taxonomic feasibility of certain information system, a set of "Feasibility Standards" was drawn from "requirements for well-organized criteria" of eminent taxonomy literatures. Finally, current government classification system in the area of social service was tested to visualize the application of Taxonomy and Standards. Findings Program Taxonomy Schemes were set including "policy goals", "policy targets", "policy tools", "logical relation" and "delivery system". Each program and project could be condensed into these attributes, making their design more easily distinguishable. Policy portfolio could be readily made out by extracting certain characteristics according to this scheme. Moreover, this taxonomy could be used for rearrangement of present "Program Budget System" or estimation of "Basic Income".

Modern Probabilistic Machine Learning and Control Methods for Portfolio Optimization

  • Park, Jooyoung;Lim, Jungdong;Lee, Wonbu;Ji, Seunghyun;Sung, Keehoon;Park, Kyungwook
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.73-83
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    • 2014
  • Many recent theoretical developments in the field of machine learning and control have rapidly expanded its relevance to a wide variety of applications. In particular, a variety of portfolio optimization problems have recently been considered as a promising application domain for machine learning and control methods. In highly uncertain and stochastic environments, portfolio optimization can be formulated as optimal decision-making problems, and for these types of problems, approaches based on probabilistic machine learning and control methods are particularly pertinent. In this paper, we consider probabilistic machine learning and control based solutions to a couple of portfolio optimization problems. Simulation results show that these solutions work well when applied to real financial market data.

The Effect of a Career Exploration Program Using Career Portfolio on Self-efficacy and Career Identity of Vocational High School Students (커리어포트폴리오를 활용한 진로탐색 프로그램이 전문계 고등학생의 자기효능감 및 진로정체감에 미치는 효과)

  • LEE, Jong-Ho;KIM, Jong-Un
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of a career exploration program using career portfolio for vocational high school students and suggest ideas for making a decision their career and occupation. The number of subjects in this study were 50 high school students in Busan metropolitan city among which 25 were assigned for the experimental group and 25 in the control group. The career exploration program utilizing career portfolio in this study was composed of 12 sessions utilizing the career portfolio. This program was based on Jeong et al.'s career development program(2005) for high school students and Choi's career exploration program using internet(2005). The instruments of this study were self-efficacy scale and career identity scale. The average, standard deviation and the differences between the pre and post-test were calculated and processed by SPSS WIN 14.0. The major findings of this study can be summarized as follows: First, the career exploration program using career portfolio was effective to enhance significantly the level of the self-efficacy of vocational high school students. Second, the career exploration program using career portfolio was also effective to enhance career identity.

Does Portfolio Quality Influence Financial Sustainability? A Case of Microfinance Institutions in Kenya

  • BITOK, Stephen K.;CHEBOI, Josephat Y.;KEMBOI, Ambrose
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between portfolio quality and financial sustainability of microfinance institutions in Kenya. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: The analysis was based on a panel dataset of 30 microfinance institutions for the period of 2010 to 2018. Data was obtained from the Microfinance information exchange (MIX) database, and it was analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics with the aid of STATA. Based on the results of the Hausman test, the study adopted the fixed effect regression model to test the research hypothesis. Results: The study found that portfolio quality had a positive significant effect on financial sustainability of Microfinance institutions in Kenya (β= 0. 211; p-value < 0.05). For the control variables; firm age had a positive effect (β= 0.773; p-value <0.05), while firm size (β= -0. 749; p-value < 0.05) had a negative effect on financial sustainability. Conclusions: The study concluded that portfolio quality has an important influence on the financial sustainability of microfinance institution. The study recommends that managers of microfinance institutions should devise good collection policies to improve portfolio quality while lessening loan default rate. The portfolio quality may improve the overall profitability and enhance investor confidence in their strategic decision-making on refinancing.

A Study on Decision-making Criteria in Industrial Sector for Electric Load Aggregation (수요반응자원으로서 산업용 부하의 매집 우선순위 결정 기준에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Yul;Kim, Dong-Min
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.65 no.6
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    • pp.946-954
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    • 2016
  • Energy industry is undergoing a paradigm shift in customer participation in the smartgrid. Customers traditionally consume electrical power. But nowadays not only do they generate electricity from private distributed generations, they can participate in demand response programs with their negawatt power which means a theoretical unit of power representing an amount of energy saved. Therefore development of decision-making criteria for electric load aggregation becomes a greater consideration as an amount of energy saved from demand response resources increases. This paper proposes load aggregators' decision-making criteria in the industrial sector where it made up the largest portion in demand response portfolio in order to assure reliability performance for demand response resources.

An Evaluation Models for R&D Projects Selection (연구개발과제 선정을 위한 단계별 평가모형)

  • 이상철;하정진;김성희
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.17 no.31
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 1994
  • Sequentiality in decision making is an inherent characteristic of the R&D Process, Conceptual changes are noted during the Course of the Project which represent a continuous improvement in the quality of the data available during the various project stages. In this paper, Eight characteristic types of project evaluation models have been developed economic index models, portfolio models, decision theory models, risk analysis models, frontier models, scoring models, profile models and checklists. Each of these will be critically reviewed and appraised.

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Some Observations for Portfolio Management Applications of Modern Machine Learning Methods

  • Park, Jooyoung;Heo, Seongman;Kim, Taehwan;Park, Jeongho;Kim, Jaein;Park, Kyungwook
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.44-51
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    • 2016
  • Recently, artificial intelligence has reached the level of top information technologies that will have significant influence over many aspects of our future lifestyles. In particular, in the fields of machine learning technologies for classification and decision-making, there have been a lot of research efforts for solving estimation and control problems that appear in the various kinds of portfolio management problems via data-driven approaches. Note that these modern data-driven approaches, which try to find solutions to the problems based on relevant empirical data rather than mathematical analyses, are useful particularly in practical application domains. In this paper, we consider some applications of modern data-driven machine learning methods for portfolio management problems. More precisely, we apply a simplified version of the sparse Gaussian process (GP) classification method for classifying users' sensitivity with respect to financial risk, and then present two portfolio management issues in which the GP application results can be useful. Experimental results show that the GP applications work well in handling simulated data sets.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.