• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.57-65
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• 2016

The port throughput situation has changed since the 2008 financial crisis in the US. Therefore, we studied the situation, accurately estimating port traffic of Korean port after the 2008 financial crisis. We ensured the proper port facilities in response to changes in port traffic. In the results of regression analysis, Korean GDP and the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won were found to increase the container throughput in Korean and Busan port, as well as trade volume with China. Also, the real effective exchange rate of Korean Won was found to increase the port transshipment cargo volume. Based on the ARIMA models, we forecasted port throughput and port transshipment cargo volume for the next six years (72 months), from 2015 to 2020. As a result, port throughput of Korean and Busan ports was forecasted by increasing annual the average from about 3.5% to 3.9%, and transshipment cargo volume was forecasted by increasing the annual average about 4.5%.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.449-457
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• 2022

The Port of Busan is currently ranked as the seventh largest container port worldwide in terms of cargo throughput. However, port competition in the Far-East region is fierce. The growth rate of container throughput handled by the port of Busan has recently slowed down. In this study, we analyzed how economic conditions and multiple external shocks could influence cargo throughput and identified potential implications for port business. The aim of this study was to build a model to accurately forecast port throughput using the ARIMA model, which could incorporate external socio-economic shocks, and the VEC model considering causal variables having long-term effects on transshipment cargo. Findings of this study suggest that there are three main areas affecting container throughput in the port of Busan, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, the increased competition for transshipment cargo of Chinese ports, and the weaker growth rate of the Korean economy. Based on the forecast, in order for the Port of the Port of Busan to continue to grow as a logistics hub in Northeast-Asia, policy intervention is necessary to diversify the demand for transshipment cargo and maximize benefits of planned infrastructural investments.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.25-39
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• 2023

As the scope of supply chains expands globally, unpredictable risks continue to arise. The occurrence of these supply chain risks affects port cargo throughput and hinders port operation. In order to examine the impact of global supply chain risks on port container throughput, this study conducted an empirical analysis on the impact of variables such as the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), Industrial Production Index, and Retail Sales Index on port traffic using the vector autoregressive(VAR) model. As a result of the analysis, the rise in GSCPI causes a short-term decrease in the throughput of Busan Port, but after a certain point, it acts as a factor increasing the throughput and affects it in the form of a wave. In addition, the industrial production index and the retail sales index were found to have no statistically significant effect on the throughput of Busan Port. In the case of SCFI, the effect was almost similar to that of GSCPI. The results of this study reveal how risks affect port cargo throughput in a situation where supply chain risks are gradually increasing, providing many implications for establishing port operation policies for future supply chain risks.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.17-29
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• 2019

Purpose - This study examines the relationship between public-private partnerships and the performance of ports based on three factors: the quality of the port infrastructure, container throughput, and logistic performance in three Latin American countries, Mexico, Panama, and Brazil, for the period of 1994-2017. Design/methodology - The selected countries are top ranked in terms of container throughput in Latin America. The methodology employs secondary data from the World Bank (Quality of Port Infrastructure, Logistics Performance Index, and Private Participation in infrastructure database). Findings - Overall, the results revealed that the private investment of these countries varies significantly over the past couple decades. Panama, with the least public-private investment over the study period, performs better than Mexico and Brazil with regards to port quality infrastructure and container throughput. For ports in the selected countries to keep up with global competition, there is a need to enhance efficiency. Originality/value - Compared with ports in Asia, Latin American ports are lagging behind with respect to container throughput and efficiency. This study suggests greater collaboration from the private sector, academia, and other organizations, as well as a review of the regulatory framework to ensure better transparency and project allocation. Throwing more light on the public-private investment environment of Mexico, Brazil, and Panama, this study offers policy makers and regulators insightful information on port infrastructure.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.1-23
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• 2013

This paper estimates and forecasts the container throughput of Busan port using the monthly data for years 1992-2011. To do this, this paper uses the several seasonal multiplicative ARIMA models. Among several ARIMA models, the seasonal multiplicative ARIMA model $(1,0,1){\times}(1,0,1)_{12}$ is selected as the best model by AIC, SC and Hannan-Quin information criteria. According to the forecasting values of the selected seasonal multiplicative ARIMA model $(1,0,1){\times}(1,0,1)_{12}$, the container throughput of Busan port for 2013-2020 will increase steadily annually, but there will be some volatile variations monthly due to the seasonality and other factors. Thus, to forecast the future container throughput of Busan port and to develop the Busan port efficiently, we need to use and analyze the seasonal multiplicative ARIMA model $(1,0,1){\times}(1,0,1)_{12}$.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.239-245
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• 2023

This study examined the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput in Korea. With a high trade-to-GDP ratio, Korea has an open economy. The vast majority of its exports and imports are serviced by maritime transport. Therefore, cargo volume of Korean seaports is highly likely to be affected by changes in global economy resulting from escalation in geopolitical risk. In this regard, this study investigated the relationship between geopolitical risk and port throughput in Korea during the period of 1995-2022. Results indicated that the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput was not statistically significant. However, the relationship varied by export, import, and ports. Especially, it was revealed that cargo volume of Korean ports was negatively associated with the level of geopolitical risk. In addition, it was also found that geopolitical risk had a negative impact on the unit price of Korean import..

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.179-189
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• 2023

Korea's port development adjusts the completion time and size of port facilities according to the future port throughput. The current port development system, which is referred to as "throughput-linked port development (Trigger Rule)", has received positive evaluation for efficiently executing the limited port development budget. Recently concerns have been growing over deteriorating service levels in port facilities in Korea due to accelerated aging of terminal facilities. However, the current port development system does not possess any standard for assessing the level of service and utilizing development indicators. The purpose of this paper is to calculate the Port Service Index (PSI) by selecting indicators to measure the Level of Service (LOS) of ports and deriving weights between the indicators, so that the current "throughput-linked port development (Trigger Rule)" can be linked with the level of service. Based on the result of analysis on a variety of preceding studies, the ship waiting rate, berth productivity, ship turnaround time and ship productivity were selected as four indicators to constitute the Port Service Index. The AHP and entropy methodologies were used to derive weights for each of four indicators which were later combined to calculate the comprehensive weight. The calculation formula of the Port Service Index (PSI) was derived by using the aggregated weights of each indicator, based on which the LOS of domestic container and bulk terminals were evaluated and this measurement result was divided into 6 classes to define each LOS. This paper contributes to draw the improvement measures for port development system that are able to connect the quantitative indicator of throughput, as well as a qualitative indicator of the level of "service".

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.29-39
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• 2021

Purpose: As China experienced a crisis due to Covid-19, the global supply chain collapsed and affected the world. Therefore, it is time for a change in port operational efficiency, increasing in importance with changes in the global supply chain. This study analyzed Shanghai Port's efficiency, the world's largest port and representative hub port in Northeast Asia, by looking at the relationship between facility factors and cargo throughput to present hub port development's timely implications. Research design, data and methodology: This study applied the Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR) and Banker, Chames, and Cooper (BCC) models of the data development analysis (DEA) to construct an analysis from the input-oriented and output-oriented perspectives. Results: As a result, Yidong Container Terminal can be considered the most optimized in facilities and operation processes. Yidong and Shengdong Container Terminal should maintain current operating levels, while Pudong Container Terminal should review facility investments. Also, Zhendong, Huong, Mingdong, and Guandong Container Terminal should be reviewed to increase cargo throughput or to adjust current input variables in the current state. Conclusions: Therefore, the utilization of the container terminal input variables should be reviewed, and the factors of inefficiency should be improved. Moreover, the strategic focus of container terminal operations should be on increasing annual cargo throughput.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.169-186
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• 2019

This study suggests a development direction by comparing the cargo throughput of the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang during 2007-2015 with that of domestic ports. It derived a concentration index (HHI) of cargo throughput in domestic ports by Yeosu-Gwangyang port docks, shipping companies, and abroad regions. The main results were as follows. First, in terms of total cargo handled, the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang was second only to the port of Busan, and the HHIs for the past nine years were relatively low. Second, the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang ranked first for total import and export cargo throughput, showing relatively stable HHIs from 2007 to 2015. Third, the HHIs of container handling performance by national shipping companies showed stable levels below 1,800. Fourth, there were no regions where cargo volume was noticeably concentrated in the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang, and it showed cargo throughput across various abroad regions. While changes in national shipping companies are expected after the Hanjin Shipping Crisis, there should be no serious concern regarding the dependence of the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang. It is expected to develop further by realizing the full use of all its facilities, diversifying the tenants in the Yeosu-Gwangyang area, and improving the demurrage rate.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.97-122
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• 2016

Incheon port attained two million TEU of container throughput between 2013 and 2014 as a third port in domestic container throughput. It opened a new port in Song-do, Incheon in June 2015 to prepare for the continuing increase in container throughput.Therefore, it has provided the platform for being the major container port domestically and internationally. As the role of the new port increases, the role and direction of the Incheon port liner service network attracts attention. This study analyzes the centrality of the Incheon port liner service network by using SNA (Social Network Analysis), which was introduced in the maritime economics area recently, focusing on the Incheon port liner service network. We recognize the degree centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality of each port and its effect on the Incheon port liner service network. The study showed that for Incheon port, the centrality of the Busan port in Korea, and the Hong Kong port, is high outside the country. This helps us determine that the hub of the Incheon port is neither Shanghai nor Singapore, which ranks first and second, respectively, on container throughput. It is also helps us to know that eastern China's ports have not played a role of the hub of the Incheon port until now because of the relatively low centrality of eastern China's ports.