• Title/Summary/Keyword: population projection

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The Demand and Supply of Nutritionist Workforce in Korea and Policy Recommendations (국민영양관리를 위한 영양사 인력의 적정수급에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.533-542
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study is to provide basic information and policy implications needed to balance the supply and demand for dietitian by projecting supply and demand for dietitian. The data from the Ministry of Health Welfare and Family on the number of licensed nutritionist, resident registration data of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, and health insurance qualification data of the National Health Insurance Corporation were used to examine the current status of supply. To project the supply of nutritionist workforce, the in-out moves method and demographic method were used. The ratios of nutritionist to population and GDP, and that of other countries were applied as the demand projection method. According to the study results, the projection on the imbalance of supply and demand for dietitian by year 2021 differs depending on the method used. First, according to the results based on age-adjusted population ratio, there is an oversupply of 1,643 dietitians in year 2010, and 2,076 dietitians in year 2020. Second, although the projection on the imbalance of the supply and demand for dietitian differs depending on whether the GDD is calculated in won(₩) or dollar($). it is expected that there will be an oversupply in general. Third, as to the scenario using the nutritionist ratio in foreign countries, the oversupply of dietitian is likely in Korea, under any scenario, when comparing the nutritionist supply projection with the demand projection based on the nutritionist ratio in the United States. However, the projection of the supply and demand varies in each scenario when the European nutritionist ratio is applied. Under European 'scenario 1', an oversupply is expected, whereas under 'scenario 2', a shortage of supply is expected. A careful approach is required in interpreting the supply and demand projection using criteria of other countries, because dietitian assumes different roles and functions in each country. Although a slight oversupply of nutritionist workforce is projected, it does not cause a major problem as the demand for diet therapy is expected to rise due to aging and the increase of chronic diseases, and as the demand for clinical dietitians in hospitals increases. Accordingly, the demand for dietitians will rise and, in this context, the oversupply of nutritionist will not incur much problem. However, the nutritionist qualification is much too open in Korea, and this has a negative effect on the quality of the nutritionist workforce. Therefore, it is important that the nutritionist qualifications and requirements are reinforced in the future, enhance the quality level of the nutritionist supply, and maintain the balance between the supply and demand.

Projection of Burden of Cancer Mortality for India, 2011-2026

  • Dsouza, Neevan D.R.;Murthy, N.S.;Aras, R.Y.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.4387-4392
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    • 2013
  • Projection of load of cancer mortality helps in quantifying the burden of cancer and is essential for planning cancer control activities. As per our knowledge, there have not been many attempts to project the cancer mortality burden at the country level in India mainly due to lack of data on cancer mortality at the national and state level. This is an attempt to understand the magnitude of cancer mortality problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. Age, sex and site-wise specific cancer mortality data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer mortality rates were obtained by taking weighted average of these six registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled mortality rates were assumed to represent the country's mortality rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of cancer mortality in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2011 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled mortality rates to estimate the projected number of cancer mortality cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various cancer-leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. The results revealed that an estimated 0.44 million died due to cancer during the year 2011, while 0.51 million and 0.60 million persons are likely to die from cancer in 2016 and 2021. In the year 2011 male mortality was estimated to be 0.23 million and female mortality to be 0.20 million. The estimated cancer mortality would increase to 0.70 million by the year 2026 as a result of change in size and composition of population. In males increase will be to 0.38 millions and in females to 0.32 millions. Among women, cancer of the breast, cervical and ovary account for 34 percent of all cancer deaths. The leading sites of cancer mortality in males are lung, oesophagus, prostrate and stomach. The above results show a need for commitment for tackling cancer by reducing risk factors and strengthening the existing screening and treatment facilities.

Development of Household Projection Model and Its Application for Korea (우리 나라에 적합한 가구추계방법에 관한 연구)

  • 장영식;변용찬;김유경
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.129-161
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    • 1998
  • Change in the future household members is closely related to the change in the size and structure of the population which, in turn, is affected by factors of fertility and mortality and the household itself due to changing social values on family. This study aims to estimate the number of households and to thereby analyze the characteristics of household, using a household projection method chosen by reviewing various methods for Korea. In selecting the method of estimating households, the irregularity of the source data should be carefully taken into consideration with a society like the Korean society which is changing rapidly. The review on the proojection methods suggests the breakdown of the ages into two groups, namely 34 years old or less and 35 years old or more, for projecting the households for Korea. Thus, the Exponential Method for the former age group and the Net Transitional Method for the latter are adopted in this study. As a result, the number of households is expected to increase from 12,956 thousand in 1995 to 20,006 thousand in 2030 or by 54% during this period. The average number of members per household will decrease from 3.3 persons in 1995 to 2.5 persons in 2030. One of the main features of change in the housohold structure will be a rapid increase in the number of one person households and a decrease in the number of households with three generations or more.

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A Study on the Projected Workforce of Occupational Health Nurse-Specialist in Korea (산업전문간호사인력 수요추계에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Pok-Ja;Hwang, Sung-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to project the workforce of occupational health nurse-specialist(OHN-S) in Korea. Method: Ratio model and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of OHNS. Result: 1) In 2002, there are 1,405 occupational health nurses in Korea. This represents 0.93% of total available nurses and 3 occupational health nurses per 100,000 population. 2) The number of OHN-S needed to meet the demands in 2002, 2005 and 2020 was estimated at 3,318, 3,351 and 3,515 respectively. The projected number of OHN-S of the year 2002 was 2.20% of total available nurses in Korea and 7 OHN-S per 100,000 population. Conclusion: In order to match the supply to the need, the professional organizations should direct their effort toward enacting legislation. Education systems should identify strategies in initialing advanced practice nursing programs in master's level as well as standardizing curriculums across the programs.

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Measurement of the Compression Force and Thickness applied during Mammography (유방촬영술에서 압력과 두께 측정)

  • Kweon, Dae-Cheol;Lee, Eun-Mi;Park, Peom
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the compression force and thickness of the compressed breast between mediolateral oblique and craniocaudal mammography. This population consisted of 204 paired mediolateral oblique and craniocaudal mammography obtained on one mammographic unit by certified mammography technologists during 2 month period. The women examined were $30{\sim}59$ years old with breast implants, the patients were classified into 3 groups according to age, $30{\sim}39$, $40{\sim}49$, and $50{\sim}59$, prior breast cancer, mastectomy or breast deformity were excluded. The digital readout of compressed breast compression force and thickness was recorded. Mammographic positioning was assessed using standard criteria. The mean compression force of the compressed breast on the craniocaudal projection was less than the mean compression force on the mediolateral projection(14 versus 13.88 daN, p<0.05). The mean thickness of the compressed breast for mediolateral projection was 41.46 mm and that for the craniocaudal projection was 39.50 mm(p<0.05). The compressed breast is higher or thicker on mediolateral oblique than on craniocaudal mammography.

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Trends in the Incidence of 15 Common Cancers in Hong Kong, 1983-2008

  • Xie, Wen-Chuan;Chan, Man-Him;Mak, Kei-Choi;Chan, Wai-Tin;He, Miao
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.3911-3916
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    • 2012
  • Background: The objective of this study WAS to describe cancer incidence rates and trends among THE Hong Kong population for the period 1983-2008. Methods: Incident cases and population data from 1983 to 2008 were obtained from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry and the Census and Statistics Department, respectively. Agestandardized incidence rates (ASIR) were estimated and joinpoint regression was applied to detect significant changes in cancer morbidity. Results: For all cancers combined, the ASIR showed declining trends (1.37% in men, 0.94% in women), this also being the case for cancers of lung, liver, nasopharynx, stomach, bladder, oesophagus for both genders and cervix cancer for women. With cancer of thyroid, prostate, male colorectal, corpus uteri, ovary and female breast cancer an increase was evident throughout the period. The incidence for leukemia showed a stable trend since early 1990s, following an earlier decrease. Conclusion: Although overall cancer incidence rates and certain cancers showed declining trends, incidence trends for colorectal, thyroid and sex-related cancers continue to rise. These trends in cancer morbidity can be used as an important resource to plan and develop effective programs aimed at the control and prevention of the spread of cancer amongst the Hong Kong population. It is particularly useful in allowing projection of future burdens on the society with the increase in certain cancer incidences.

오염토양 정화의 비용편익분석 -독일 오스나부릭 도시 사례-

  • 강동규
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 2004.09a
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    • pp.20-24
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    • 2004
  • The aim of this study was to analyse the cost-benefit-ratio of a soil remediation project. The target of the study was the 'Altablagerung Osnabrueck-Wueste' the largest inhabited former landfill site in Germany. The determination of benefit resulting from the soil remediation was quantified with the help of willingness-to-pay(WTP) analysis (contingent valuation method, CVM). 400 households participated in the survey. The average WTP was 6.5 Euro per household per month or 78 Euro per house-hold per year. The projected benefit generated by the remediation (consumer value) for the population in the landfill area was determined to be 0.7 million Euro per year. Factors which influence the will-ingness to pay were evaluated. The most important factors were age, garden use and the prevailing concern about personal health. A computation of the cost-benefit relationship was made on the basis of three different scenarios, which differed in terms of the projected benefits. Finally the economical efficiency of the project was determined. With a projection of 18 years and upwards the remediation of the soil is economically worthwhile.

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A Bayesian model for two-way contingency tables with nonignorable nonresponse from small areas

  • Woo, Namkyo;Kim, Dal Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.245-254
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    • 2016
  • Many surveys provide categorical data and there may be one or more missing categories. We describe a nonignorable nonresponse model for the analysis of two-way contingency tables from small areas. There are both item and unit nonresponse. One approach to analyze these data is to construct several tables corresponding to missing categories. We describe a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyze two-way categorical data from different areas. This allows a "borrowing of strength" of the data from larger areas to improve the reliability in the estimates of the model parameters corresponding to the small areas. Also we use a nonignorable nonresponse model with Bayesian uncertainty analysis by placing priors in nonidentifiable parameters instead of a sensitivity analysis for nonidentifiable parameters. We use the griddy Gibbs sampler to fit our models and compute DIC and BPP for model diagnostics. We illustrate our method using data from NHANES III data on thirteen states to obtain the finite population proportions.

Current situation and possible management practice in future of rural water conservancy in Hai River Basin

  • He, Huining
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.191-191
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    • 2016
  • Hai River Basin is one of China's major agricultural areas, with a huge rural population. Water conservancy is of great importance in this region. There are three integral elements in managing rural water resources: the consideration of current situation, the adoption of effective management measures, and the projection of future needs. In this study, we provide an in-depth investigation of current water resources situation of Hai River Basin. Five issues are analyzed: (1) the construction of conservancy projects; (2) the irrigation of farmland; (3)the safety of drinking water; (4)the protection of water environment; and (5)the model of management practice. Existing problems are diagnosed and possible solutions are discussed. Finally, a summary is made for managing water resources and meeting future needs.

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The Structure Change Study on the Actin-Myosin Cross-Bridges in SH of Myosin Head by The Computer Data (컴퓨터 분석에 의한 Myosin Head의 SH가 Actin-Myosin Cross-Bridges에 따른 구조변화 연구)

  • Kim, Duck-Sool;Ok, Soo-Yol;Park, Keun-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.84-90
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    • 2005
  • IASL(iodo acetamide) and MSL(maleimide) disordered the orderly helix arrangement of myosin in the rest state of spin level. Especially the effect of IASL was great. Equatorial refiection(10,11) change inferred that myosin head was moved to the vicinity of actin filament by spin level. The intensity change of 143${\AA}$ and 72${\AA}$ could offer information of the mass projection of population of myosin heads along the :filament axis. The slope of intensity profile of the mass projection of 143${\AA}$ and reflection of IASL is appeared and that of MSL is appeared sharply. The decrease of 215${\AA}$ reflection intensity is appeared the periodical characteristic of 143${\AA}$ reflection by spin label. The raise of MSL actin reflection at 51${\AA}$ and 59${\AA}$ in the actin reflection change refers that the shifted myosin head binds a certain actin or changes an actin structure by spin label effect. Because iodo acetamide has a tendency to decease the actin reflection, actin dose not bind myosin head. From this result, we could conclude that LASL and MSL are spin labeled on SH of myosin head and disordered the helix arrangement of actin.