• Title/Summary/Keyword: population dynamics model

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System Dynamics Modelling on Religious Populations (종교 인구의 다이내믹스에 관한 시론적 모델)

  • Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.37-59
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    • 2014
  • This paper is to study dynamics of populations of religions. As human population is a crucial source of social dynamics, the religious population is a driving force that changes political and cultural landscape of society. Although many christian scholars have reported important causal factors in changing population of christian world, there are few studies on the dynamics of religious population in system dynamics. This paper interprets these dynamic mechanisms in terms of feedback loops and constructs a basic system dynamic model to forecast future trend of religious population in Korean society.

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Application of an Augmented Predator-Prey Model to the Population Dynamics of Roe Deer in Jeju (제주도 노루의 개체수 관리를 위한 확장적 피식-포식모형의 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Dae-Uk;Kim, Doa-Hoon
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.95-126
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    • 2011
  • This paper aims at developing a System Dynamics model with an augmented predator-prey interaction structure to deal with the population management of roe deer in Jeju, Korea. Although people still regard the creature as one of the important tourist attractions, there has been much debate on the issues of the appropriateness of the population size of roe deers because they have been stigmatized as crop damagers, and roadkill/poaching victims due to their natural habit to move around from the top mountain to the lowland of the island. The model is therefore to incorporate these migrating and grazing behaviors into an augmented Lotka-Volterra model coupling roe deer population in both parts of the island to that of predators and preys of the species. The authors also provide a comprehensive set of dynamic hypotheses and relevant CLD/SFD to understand the population dynamics of roe deer and co-evolving species and perform the steady-state analysis of the proposed equation system to verify the model behavior of the numerical example lastly presented in this paper.

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Establishment of the Measurement Model about the Adequate Urban Development Density using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 도시개발밀도의 적정성 평가 모델 구축 연구)

  • 전유신;문태훈
    • Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
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    • 2003.08a
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this paper was developing a development density control model for urban growth management, using system dynamics modeling. The density control model was developed to see how urban growth, transition, and decay occur depending on the interaction among population, houses, industry structure, land and urban infrastructure such as road, water supply, and sewage treatment facilities. Suggesting adequate level of development density control using the model was another purpose of this paper. The model was applied to An'yang city to estimate the maximum number of population, industry structures, houses, and cars that can be adequately sustained with the current An'yang city's infrastructur capacity. The computer simulation results shows that the city is overpopulated by some 90,000 people. To reduce the population to the adequate level that the current urban infrastructure can sustain, the current city regulation on floor area ratio are needed to be strengthened at least 20 to 35%.

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Establishment of the Measurement Model about the Adequate Urban Development Density using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 도시개발밀도의 적정성 평가 모델 구축 연구)

  • 전유신;문태훈
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this dissertation is to build a development density control model and estimate optimum developmental density level for a sustainable urban growth management. To develop the model, system dynamics modeling approach was used. The model was developed to analyze how urban growth, transition, and decay occur depending on the interaction among population, houses, industry structure, land and urban infrastructure such as road, water supply, and sewage treatment facilities. The model was applied to Anyang city to estimate optimum density level. Extensive computer simulation was conducted to find out the maximum numbers of population, industry structure, houses, and cars that can be adequately sustained with the current Anyang city's infrastructure capacity. The computer simulation result shows that the city is overpopulated by some 90,000 people. It nab analyzed that 20% increase of existing capacity of urban infrastructure is necessary to support current population of Anyang city. To reduce the population to the adequate level whereby the current urban infrastructure can sustain, the current city regulation on floor area ratio needs be strengthened at least 20% to 35%.

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Evaluation of Urban Growth Management Policy using Urban Dynamics Model (도시동태모형을 이용한 도시성장관리정책의 평가)

  • 문태훈
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.5-27
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    • 2002
  • This paper evaluate and compare effectiveness of urban growth management measures in Korea using system dynamics model. Simple urban dynamics model was used to compare urban growth management measures. Since the late 1960s, Korean government has been implementing various urban growth management measures without much success. In the 1960s, factories, universities, and public agencies were strongly encouraged to move out to local areas. During the 1970s, regulations on greenbelt area was adopted to prevent urban sprawl. Besides, regulations to prevent location of population inducing facilities, and promoting dislocation of those facilities were implemented simultaneously. During the 1990, regulations on total number of factories in the metropolitan area, development fees were adopted. These various method of urban management were compared. Simulation results shows that promoting decentralization of population, preventing population immigration, expanding greenbelt area are effectiveness ones compared to controlling total number of population inducing facilities, and preventing construction of new industries. Some implications of the findings were discussed.

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A DISCONTINUOUS GALERKIN METHOD FOR A MODEL OF POPULATION DYNAMICS

  • Kim, Mi-Young;Yin, Y.X.
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.767-779
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    • 2003
  • We consider a model of population dynamics whose mortality function is unbounded. We approximate the solution of the model using a discontinuous Galerkin finite element for the age variable and a backward Euler for the time variable. We present several numerical examples. It is experimentally shown that the scheme converges at the rate of $h^{3/2}$ in the case of piecewise linear polynomial space.

Dynamic Customer Population Management Model at Aggregate Level

  • Kim, Geon-Ha
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.49-70
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    • 2010
  • Customer population management models can be classified into three categories: the first category includes the models that analyze the customer population at cohort level; the second one deals with the customer population at aggregate level; the third one has interest in the interactions among the customer populations in the competitive market. Our study proposes a model that can analyze the dynamics of customer population in consumer-durables market at aggregate level. The dynamics of customer population includes the retention curves from the purchase or at a specific duration time, the duration time expectancy at a specific duration time, and customer population growth or decline including net replacement rate, intrinsic rate of increase, and the generation time of customer population. For this study, we adopt mathematical ecology models, redefine them, and restructure interdisciplinary models to analyze the dynamics of customer population at aggregate level. We use the data of previous research on dynamic customer population management at cohort level to compare its results with those of ours and to demonstrate the useful analytical effects which the precious research cannot provide for marketers.

Numerical Simulation of Turbulence-Induced Flocculation and Sedimentation in a Flocculant-Aided Sediment Retention Pond

  • Lee, Byung Joon;Molz, Fred
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2014
  • A model combining multi-dimensional discretized population balance equations with a computational fluid dynamics simulation (CFD-DPBE model) was developed and applied to simulate turbulent flocculation and sedimentation processes in sediment retention basins. Computation fluid dynamics and the discretized population balance equations were solved to generate steady state flow field data and simulate flocculation and sedimentation processes in a sequential manner. Up-to-date numerical algorithms, such as operator splitting and LeVeque flux-corrected upwind schemes, were applied to cope with the computational demands caused by complexity and nonlinearity of the population balance equations and the instability caused by advection-dominated transport. In a modeling and simulation study with a two-dimensional simplified pond system, applicability of the CFD-DPBE model was demonstrated by tracking mass balances and floc size evolutions and by examining particle/floc size and solid concentration distributions. Thus, the CFD-DPBE model may be used as a valuable simulation tool for natural and engineered flocculation and sedimentation systems as well as for flocculant-aided sediment retention ponds.

Effects of Climate-Changes on Patterns of Seasonal Changes in Bird Population in Rice Fields using a Prey-Predator Model (포식자-피식자 모델을 이용하여 기후변화가 논습지를 이용하는 조류 개체군 동태에 미치는 영향 예측)

  • Lee, Who-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.294-303
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    • 2013
  • BACKGROUND: It is well known that rice-fields can provide excellent foraging places for birds including seasonal migrants, wintering, and breeding and hence the high biodiversity of rice-fields may be expected. However, how environmental change including climate-changes on life-history and population dynamics in birds on rice-fields has not been fully understood. In order to investigate how climate-change affects population migratory patterns and migration timing, I modeled a population dynamics of birds in rice-fields over a whole year. METHODS AND RESULTS: I applied the Lotka-Volterra equation to model the population dynamics of birds that have been foraging/visiting rice-fields in Korea. The simple model involves the number of interspecific individuals and temperature, and the model parameters are periodic in time as the biological activities related to the migration, wintering and reproduction are seasonal. As results, firstly there was a positive relationship between the variation of seasonal population sizes and temperature change. Secondly, the reduced lengths of season were negatively related to the population size. Overall, the effects of the difference of lengths of season on seasonal population dynamics were higher than the effects of seasonal temperature change. CONCLUSION(S): Climate change can alter population dynamics of birds in rice-fields and hence the variation may affect the fitness, such as reproduction, survival and migration. The unstable balances of population dynamics in birds using paddy rice field as affected by climate change can reduce the population growth and species diversity in rice fields. The results suggest that the agricultural production is partly affected by the unstable balance of population in birds using rice-fields.

Phase Transitions and Phase Diagram of the Island Model with Migration

  • Park, Jeong-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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    • v.73 no.9
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    • pp.1219-1224
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    • 2018
  • We investigate the evolutionary dynamics and the phase transitions of the island model which consists of subdivided populations of individuals confined to two islands. In the island model, the population is subdivided so that migration acts to determine the evolutionary dynamics along with selection and genetic drift. The individuals are assumed to be haploid and to be one of two species, X or Y. They reproduce according to their fitness values, die at random, and migrate between the islands. The evolutionary dynamics of an individual based model is formulated in terms of a master equation and is approximated by using the diffusion method as the multidimensional Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) and the coupled non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with multiplicative noise. We analyze the infinite population limit to find the phase transitions from the monomorphic state of one type to the polymorphic state to the monomorphic state of the other type as we vary the ratio of the fitness values in two islands and complete the phase diagram of our island model.