• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.81-90
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• 2008

Bus passengers need some time to adapt to the changed bus route or free bus transfer system which is part of the public transportation system restructuring plan. This research is focused on the characteristics of monthly patterns of bus passengers. The period of stabilization of bus passenger demand after the rearrangement of bus route system by a time series were analysed. In order to look into the characteristics of bus passenger demand by month, data on the number of monthly bus passengers of recent five years in metropolitan cities across the nation was collected. Kendall's coefficient of concordance is used to test whether the cities showed concordance with respect to the number of monthly bus passengers during a period of five years. The study collected and performed a time series analysis of data on the number of monthly bus passengers during the past ten years in Daegu metropolitan area which carried out a new bus route plan in February 2006. The number of monthly bus passengers in 2006 was estimated using the time series analysis. The city of Daegu found that after six months the estimated and actual values displayed a similar pattern. This result can be applied to other cities in estimating the passenger demands in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.27-34
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• 2000

This study analyzes the price elasticities of airline Passenger demand through the 'Stated Preference' technique which uses survey data. Because the domestic airfare has been regulated by the government. it is not easy to derive Price elasticity through the usual regression analysis with aggregate data and thus a special methodology is required for elasticity estimation. Therefore, in this study we estimated the Price elasticities of domestic air passenger demand and the modal share change rates to the alternative modes with logit model and sample enumeration method, by analyzing the survey data on air Passengers' demand behavior about the mode choice between air-rail. air-bus, and air-car. As the results, the estimated price elasticities are in the range of -0.6~-0.9, and rail is mainly chosen as an alternative mode. bus is chosen Partly, and car is barely used.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.667-675
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• 2016

The goal of this study is to be used as baseline data for transportation demand management. At the present time the number of registered car and householding car is increasing, so there is a need to analyze the car ownership pattern through household car hold status. Also, it is necessary to analyze the factor of increasing car. The research is proceeded with classifying as the household which is holding private cars or holding passenger cars and non passenger cars based on the result of the research of the household travel survey data. The result of this study is shown as follows. According to car ownership pattern, there are more households holding passenger cars only when they are holding less than 2 cars. Otherwise there are more households holding passenger car and non passenger car when they are holding more than 3 cars. Using the Ordered Logit Model, there are more differences in factors affects holding cars by variables of housing type and household properties.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.88-97
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• 2020

In the past 20 years, passenger and cargo transportation performance at the international passenger ports in Korea have increased by 8.6% on the compound annual growth rate, respectively. The Korean government had expected to continue expanding the market of car ferries and the government included plans for the development of additional routes and lanes with neighboring countries such as China, J apan, and Russia as a part of the Plan of the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries in 2019. However, compared to the development of routes, the management and operation of passenger terminals are inefficient. The purpose of this paper was to introduce the overall improvement of the passenger terminal operating system that reflects the recent changes in the supply and demand of international passenger vessels and the needs of the government and private sector passengers. To this end, a basic survey was conducted on the status of operations and facilities at the Busan International P assenger Terminal and a questionnaire survey was administered on the subject of use. The results of the survey were analyzed using the IPA model. As a result of the analysis, three items in the operation sector, three items in the facility sector, and four items in the system sector of the Busan International Passenger Terminal were identified as in need of improvement. Based on the results, the need for investment to improve the international passenger terminal operating system is suggested.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.148-160
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• 2023

The air transport industry is experiencing unprecedented fluctuations in aviation demand through the Covid-19 pandemic, and is more focused than ever on maintaining and generating business profitability. During the pandemic, demand for air cargo has soared, and the conversion business from passenger aircrafts to freighters(P2F) is drawing attention as a new business in the aviation maintenance industry. This study derives important factors to be considered in order to successfully carry out the P2F project through a wide range of cases and related literature, and analyzes the relative importance of each factor using the analytic hierarchy process. Through a survey of 33 aviation maintenance experts with more than 20 years of field experience, the importance of main factors and their sub factors was determined and implications were drawn. As a primary result, in order to succeed in the P2F project, the main factors were identified in the order of skill, finance, and location. The most important sub factors for each main factors were identified in order of securing airframe modification skill, securing infrastructure construction cost, and creating P2F business complex and district. The quantified success factors suggested the critical direction for the successful development of Korea's P2F business, and presented viable and specific business strategies and implementation plans for each factors.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.1607-1611
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• 2004

Korea's new high-speed train opened for business on April 1, 2004. This paper examines the passenger demand variation between major train stops on Kyung-Bu corridor. The analysis scrutinized the demand transition and market responses by the opening of KTX. Demand analysis is subcategorized with routes and train classes. The study used the data from the survey between January 2003 and August 2004 and the route sections were between major trains stops including Seoul, Cheonan, Daejeon, Daegu and Busan on Kyung-Bu corridor.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.65-78
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• 1985

In this paper, the approach getting a total demand by forecasting the new demand and the replacement demand separately and adding them is used for long term forecasting of durable goods. Cross country analysis using the income as an independent variable and S-shaped growth curve as a fitting model is developed as a method of forecasting new demand. To get the replacement demand the methods using the number of ownership and the replacement rate and the methods using the past demand and the distribution of the product life are proposed. And the theoretical explannation for product life cycle's diversity, which is the one of the major considerations in the long term forecasting, is attempted by the combination of the new demand and the replacement demand patterns. This is applicated the long term forecasting of Korean passenger cars.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.147-153
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• 2020

This study analyzed the outlook for aviation demand for the recovery of the aviation industry, focusing on airlines facing difficulties in management due to the Covid-19 crisis. Although the timing of the recovery in aviation demand is uncertain at the moment, this study is based on prior research related to Covid-19 and forecasts by aviation specialists, and analyzed by SWOT technique to a group of aviation experts to derive and suggest implications for the prospects of aviation demand. Looking at the implications based on the analysis results, first, customer trust to prevent infection should be considered a top priority for recovering aviation demand. Second, promote reasonable air price policy. Finally, it seeks to try various research and analysis techniques to predict long-term aviation demand to overcome Covid-19.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.125-138
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• 2020

Currently, subway crowding is estimated by observing a specific point at specific hours once or twice every 1 or 2 years. Given the extensive subway network in Seoul Metropolitan Area covering 588 stations, 11 lines and 80 transfer stations as of 2017, implementing crowding mitigation policy may have its limitations due to data uncertainty. A proposal has recently been made to effectively use smart card data, which generates big data on the overall subway traffic related to an estimated 8 million passengers per day. To mitigate subway crowding, this study proposes two viable options based on data related to smart card used in Seoul Metropolitan Area. One is to create a subway passenger pattern model to accurately estimate subway crowding, while the other is to prove effectiveness of early bird policy to distribute subway demand that is concentrated at certain stations and certain time. A subway passenger pattern model was created to estimate the passenger routes based on subway terminal ID at the entrance and exit and data by hours. To that end, we propose assigning passengers at the routes similar to the shortest routes based on an assumption that passengers choose the fastest routes. In the model, passenger flow is simulated every minute, and subway crowding level by station and line at every hour is analyzed while station usage pattern is identified by depending on passenger paths. For early bird policy, highly crowded stations will be categorized based on congestion level extracted from subway passenger pattern model and viability of a policy which transfers certain traveling demands to early commuting hours in those stations will be reviewed. In particular, review will be conducted on the impact of policy implemented at certain stations on other stations and lines from subway network as a whole. Lastly, we proposed that smart card based subway passenger pattern model established through this study used in decision making process to ensure effective implementation of public transport policy.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.401-409
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• 2014

This study deals with capacity expansion planning of airport infrastructure in view of economic validation that reflect construction costs and social benefits according to the reduction of passengers' delay time. We first forecast the airport peak-demand which has a seasonal and cyclical feature with ARIMA model that has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. A discrete event simulation model is built for estimating actual delay time of passengers that consider the passenger's dynamic flow within airport infrastructure after arriving at the airport. With the trade-off relationship between cost and benefit, we determine an economic quantity of conveyor that will be expanded. Through the experiment performed with the case study of Incheon international airport, we demonstrate that our approach can be an effective method to solve the airport expansion problem with seasonal passenger arrival and dynamic operational aspects in airport infrastructure.