• Title/Summary/Keyword: output prediction

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System Development for Analysis and Compensation of Column Shortening of Reinforced Concrete Tell Buildings (철근콘크리트 고층건물 기둥의 부등축소량 해석 및 보정을 위한 시스템 개발)

  • 김선영;김진근;김원중
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2002
  • Recently, construction of reinforced concrete tall buildings is widely increased according to the improvement of material quality and design technology. Therefore, differential shortenings of columns due to elastic, creep, and shrinkage have been an important issue. But it has been neglected to predict the Inelastic behavior of RC structures even though those deformations make a serious problem on the partition wall, external cladding, duct, etc. In this paper, analysis system for prediction and compensation of the differential column shortenings considering time-dependent deformations and construction sequence is developed using the objected-oriented technique. Developed analysis system considers the construction sequence, especially time-dependent deformation in early days, and is composed of input module, database module, database store module, analysis module, and analysis result generation module. Graphic user interface(GUI) is supported for user's convenience. After performing the analysis, the output results like deflections and member forces according to the time can be observed in the generation module using the graphic diagram, table, and chart supported by the integrated environment.

Prediction of Evacuation Time for Emergency Planning Zone of Uljin Nuclear Site (울진원전 방사선비상계획구역에 대한 소개시간 예측)

  • Jeon, In-Young;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2002
  • The time for evacuation of residents in emergency planning zone(EPZ) of Uljin nuclear site in case of a radiological emergency was estimated with traffic analysis. Evacuees were classified into 4 groups by considering population density, local jurisdictions, and whether they ate residents or transients. The survey to investigate the behavioral characteristics of the residents was made for 200 households and included a hypothetical scenario explaining the accident situation and questions such as dwelling place, time demand for evacuation preparation transportation means for evacuation, sheltering place, and evacuation direction. The microscopic traffic simulation model, CORSIM, was used to simulate the behavior of evacuating vehicles on networks. The results showed that the evacuation time required for total vehicles to move out from EPZ took longer in the daytime than at night in spite that the delay times at intersections were longer at night than in the daytime. This was analyzed due to the differences of the trip generation time distribution. To validate whether the CORSIM model fan appropriately simulate the congested traffic phenomena assumable in case of emergency, a benchmark study was conducted at an intersection without an actuated traffic signal near Uljin site during the traffic peak-time in the morning. This study indicated that the predicted output by the CORSIM model was in good agreement with the observed data. satisfying the purpose of this study.

Porewater Pressure Predictions on Hillside Slopes for Assessing Landslide Risks (II) Development of Groundwater Flow Model (산사태 위험도 추정을 위한 간극수압 예측에 관한 연구(II) -산사면에서의 지하수위 예측 모델의 개발-)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Park, Gyeong-Ho;Im, Chung-Mo
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 1992
  • The physical-based and lumped-parameter hydrologic groundwater flow model for predicting the rainfall-triggered rise of groundwater levels in hillside slopes is developed in this paper to assess the risk of landslides. The developed model consists of a vertical infiltration model for unsaturated zone linked to a linear storage reservoir model(LSRM) for saturated zone. The groundwater flow model has uncertain constants like soil depttL slope angle, saturated permeability, and potential evapotranspiration and four free model parameters like a, b, c, and K. The free model parameters could be estimated from known input-output records. The BARD algorithm is uses as the parameter estimation technique which is based on a linearization of the proposed model by Gauss -Newton method and Taylor series expansion. The application to examine the capacity of prediction shows that the developed model has a potential of use in forecast systems of predicting landslides and that the optimal estimate of potential 'a' in infiltration model is the most important in the global optimum analysis because small variation of it results in the large change of the objective function, the sum of squares of deviations of the observed and computed groundwater levels. 본 논문에서는 가파른 산사면에서 산사태의 발생을 예측하기 위한 수문학적 인 지하수 흐름 모델을 개발하였다. 이 모델은 물리적인 개념에 기본하였으며, Lumped-parameter를 이용하였다. 개발된 지하수 흐름 모델은 두 모델을 조합하여 구성되어 있으며, 비포화대 흐름을 위해서는 수정된 abcd 모델을, 포화대 흐름에 대해서는 시간 지체 효과를 고려할 수 있는 선형 저수지 모델을 이용하였다. 지하수 흐름 모델은 토층의 두께, 산사면의 경사각, 포화투수계수, 잠재 증발산 량과 같은 불확실한 상수들과 a, b, c, 그리고 K와 같은 자유모델변수들을 가진다. 자유모델변수들은 유입-유출 자료들로부터 평가할 수 있으며, 이를 위해서 본 논문에서는 Gauss-Newton 방법을 이용한 Bard 알고리즘을 사용하였다. 서울 구로구 시흥동 산사태 발생 지역의 산사면에 대하여 개발된 모델을 적용하여 예제 해석을 수행함으로써, 지하수 흐름 모델이 산사태 발생 예측을 위하여 이용할 수 있음을 입증하였다. 또한, 매개변수분석 연구를 통하여, 변수 a값은 작은 변화에 대하여 목적함수값에 큰 변화를 일으키므로 a의 값에 대한 최적값을 구하는 것이 가장 중요한 요소라는 결론을 얻었다.

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Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Models and Evaluation of Their Application on Agricultural Lands in Korea (토양 온실가스 배출 예측 모델 분석 및 국내 농경지 적용성 평가)

  • Hwang, Wonjae;Park, Minseok;Kim, Yong-Seong;Cho, Kijong;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Hyun, Seunghun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.185-190
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    • 2015
  • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from agricultural lands is recognized as one of important factors of global warming. The objective of this short communication was to evaluate the applicability of different soil GHG emission prediction models on agricultural systems in Korea. Four models, namely, DNDC, DAYCENT, EXPERT-N and COUP, were selected and the basic structure (e.g., components and sub-model), input variables, and output variables were compared. In particular, the availability and compilation of essential input variables were assessed. Major input variables needed for operating these predictive models were found to be available through database systems established by national organizations such as the Korea Meteorological Administration, the Korean Soil Information System, and the Rural Development Administration. However, in order to apply these models in Korea, it was necessary to calibrate and validate each of the models for the domestic landscape settings and climate conditions. In addition, field data of long-term monitoring of GHG emission from agricultural lands are limited and therefore should be measured.

Improvement of precipitation forecasting skill of ECMWF data using multi-layer perceptron technique (다층퍼셉트론 기법을 이용한 ECMWF 예측자료의 강수예측 정확도 향상)

  • Lee, Seungsoo;Kim, Gayoung;Yoon, Soonjo;An, Hyunuk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.475-482
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    • 2019
  • Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction information which have 2 weeks to 2 months lead time are expected to be used through many parts of industry fields, but utilizability is not reached to expectation because of lower predictability than weather forecast and mid- /long-term forecast. In this study, we used multi-layer perceptron (MLP) which is one of machine learning technique that was built for regression training in order to improve predictability of S2S precipitation data at South Korea through post-processing. Hindcast information of ECMWF was used for MLP training and the original data were compared with trained outputs based on dichotomous forecast technique. As a result, Bias score, accuracy, and Critical Success Index (CSI) of trained output were improved on average by 59.7%, 124.3% and 88.5%, respectively. Probability of detection (POD) score was decreased on average by 9.5% and the reason was analyzed that ECMWF's model excessively predicted precipitation days. In this study, we confirmed that predictability of ECMWF's S2S information can be improved by post-processing using MLP even the predictability of original data was low. The results of this study can be used to increase the capability of S2S information in water resource and agricultural fields.

Development of Productivity Prediction Model according to Choke Size and Gas Injection Rate by using ANN(Artificial Neural Network) at Oil Producer (오일 생산정에서 쵸크사이즈와 가스주입량에 따른 생산성 예측 인공신경망 모델 개발)

  • Han, Dong-kwon;Kwon, Sun-il
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.90-103
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    • 2018
  • This paper presents the development of two ANN models which can predict an optimum production rate by controlling choke size in oil well, and gas injection rate in gas-lift well. The input data was solution gas-oil ratio, water cut, reservoir pressure, and choke size or gas injection rate. The output data was wellhead pressure and production rate. Firstly, a range of each parameters was decided by conducting sensitive analysis of input data for onshore oil well. In addition, 1,715 sets training data for choke size decision model and 1,225 sets for gas injection rate decision model were generated by nodal analysis. From the results of comparing between the nodal analysis and the ANN on the same reservoir system showed that the correlation factors were very high(>0.99). Mean absolute error of wellhead pressure and oil production rate was 0.55%, 1.05% with the choke size model, respectively. And the gas injection rate model showed the errors of 1.23%, 2.67%. It was found that the developed models had been highly accurate.

Analysis and verification of the characteristic of a compact free-flooded ring transducer made of single crystals (압전단결정을 이용한 소형 free-flooded ring 트랜스듀서의 성능 특성 예측 및 검증)

  • Im, Jongbeom;Yoon, Hongwoo;Kwon, Byungjin;Kim, Kyungseop;Lee, Jeongmin
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.278-286
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a 33-mode Free-Flooded Ring (FFR) transducer was designed to apply piezoelectric single crystal PIN-PMN-PT, which has high piezoelectric constants and electromechanical coupling coefficient. To ensure low-frequency high transmitting sensitivity characteristics with a small size of FFR transducer, the commercial FFR transducer based on piezoelectric ceramics was compared. To develop the FFR transducer with broadband characteristics, a piezoelectric segmented ring structure inserted with inactive elements was applied. The oil-filled structure was applied to minimize the change of acoustic characteristics of the ring transducer. It was verified that the transmitting voltage response, underwater impedance, and beam pattern matched the finite element numerical simulation results well through an acoustic test. The difference in the transmitting voltage response between the measured and the simulated results is about 1.3 dB in cavity mode and about 0.3 dB in radial mode. The fabricated FFR transducer had a higher transmitting voltage response compared to the commercial transducer, but the diameter was reduced by about 17 %. From this study, it was confirmed that the feasibility of a single crystal-applied FFR transducer with compact size and high-power characteristics. The effectiveness of the performance prediction by simulation was also confirmed.

Predicting the amount of water shortage during dry seasons using deep neural network with data from RCP scenarios (RCP 시나리오와 다층신경망 모형을 활용한 가뭄시 물부족량 예측)

  • Jang, Ock Jae;Moon, Young Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2022
  • The drought resulting from insufficient rainfall compared to the amount in an ordinary year can significantly impact a broad area at the same time. Another feature of this disaster is hard to recognize its onset and disappearance. Therefore, a reliable and fast way of predicting both the suffering area and the amount of water shortage from the upcoming drought is a key issue to develop a countermeasure of the disaster. However, the available drought scenarios are about 50 events that have been observed in the past. Due to the limited number of events, it is difficult to predict the water shortage in a case where the pattern of a natural disaster is different from the one in the past. To overcome the limitation, in this study, we applied the four RCP climate change scenarios to the water balance model and the annual amount of water shortage from 360 drought events was estimated. In the following chapter, the deep neural network model was trained with the SPEI values from the RCP scenarios and the amount of water shortage as the input and output, respectively. The trained model in each sub-basin enables us to easily and reliably predict the water shortage with the SPEI values in the past and the predicted meteorological conditions in the upcoming season. It can be helpful for decision-makers to respond to future droughts before their onset.

Convolutional Neural Network-based Prediction of Bolt Clamping Force in Initial Bolt Loosening State Using Frequency Response Similarity (초기 볼트풀림 상태의 볼트 체결력 예측을 위한 주파수응답 유사성 기반의 합성곱 신경망)

  • Jea Hyun Lee;Jeong Sam Han
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2023
  • This paper presents a novel convolutional neural network (CNN)-based approach for predicting bolt clamping force in the early bolt loosening state of bolted structures. The approach entails tightening eight bolts with different clamping forces and generating frequency responses, which are then used to create a similarity map. This map quantifies the magnitude and shape similarity between the frequency responses and the initial model in a fully fastened state. Krylov subspace-based model order reduction is employed to efficiently handle the large amount of frequency response data. The CNN model incorporates a regression output layer to predict the clamping forces of the bolts. Its performance is evaluated by training the network by using various amounts of training data and convolutional layers. The input data for the model are derived from the magnitude and shape similarity map obtained from the frequency responses. The results demonstrate the diagnostic potential and effectiveness of the proposed approach in detecting early bolt loosening. Accurate bolt clamping force predictions in the early loosening state can thus be achieved by utilizing the frequency response data and CNN model. The findings afford valuable insights into the application of CNNs for assessing the integrity of bolted structures.

Study on the Prediction of Motion Response of Fishing Vessels using Recurrent Neural Networks (순환 신경망 모델을 이용한 소형어선의 운동응답 예측 연구)

  • Janghoon Seo;Dong-Woo Park;Dong Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.505-511
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    • 2023
  • In the present study, a deep learning model was established to predict the motion response of small fishing vessels. Hydrodynamic performances were evaluated for two small fishing vessels for the dataset of deep learning model. The deep learning model of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) which is one of the recurrent neural network was utilized. The input data of LSTM model consisted of time series of six(6) degrees of freedom motions and wave height and the output label was selected as the time series data of six(6) degrees of freedom motions. The hyperparameter and input window length studies were performed to optimize LSTM model. The time series motion response according to different wave direction was predicted by establised LSTM. The predicted time series motion response showed good overall agreement with the analysis results. As the length of the time series increased, differences between the predicted values and analysis results were increased, which is due to the reduced influence of long-term data in the training process. The overall error of the predicted data indicated that more than 85% of the data showed an error within 10%. The established LSTM model is expected to be utilized in monitoring and alarm systems for small fishing vessels.