• 제목/요약/키워드: optimal estimation

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Calibration of Car-Following Models Using a Dual Genetic Algorithm with Central Composite Design (중심합성계획법 기반 이중유전자알고리즘을 활용한 차량추종모형 정산방법론 개발)

  • Bae, Bumjoon;Lim, Hyeonsup;So, Jaehyun (Jason)
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-43
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    • 2019
  • The calibration of microscopic traffic simulation models has received much attention in the simulation field. Although no standard has been established for it, a genetic algorithm (GA) has been widely employed in recent literature because of its high efficiency to find solutions in such optimization problems. However, the performance still falls short in simulation analyses to support fast decision making. This paper proposes a new calibration procedure using a dual GA and central composite design (CCD) in order to improve the efficiency. The calibration exercise goes through three major sequential steps: (1) experimental design using CCD for a quadratic response surface model (RSM) estimation, (2) 1st GA procedure using the RSM with CCD to find a near-optimal initial population for a next step, and (3) 2nd GA procedure to find a final solution. The proposed method was applied in calibrating the Gipps car-following model with respect to maximizing the likelihood of a spacing distribution between a lead and following vehicle. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, a conventional calibration approach using a single GA was compared under both simulated and real vehicle trajectory data. It was found that the proposed approach enhances the optimization speed by starting to search from an initial population that is closer to the optimum than that of the other approach. This result implies the proposed approach has benefits for a large-scale traffic network simulation analysis. This method can be extended to other optimization tasks using GA in transportation studies.

Estimation of Permanent Displacement of Gravity Quay Wall Considering Failure Surface under Seismic Loading (지진 시 파괴면을 고려한 중력식 안벽의 영구변위 평가)

  • Han, Insuk;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Park, Duhee;Kwon, Osoon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2019
  • The stability of the gravity quay wall against earthquakes is evaluated on the basis of the allowable displacement of the wall. To estimate the displacement caused by external forces, empirical equations based on the Newmark sliding block method or numerical analysis are widely used. In numerical analysis, it is possible to analyze precisely a complicated site and structure, but difficult to set the appropriate parameters and environments; there are limitations in obtaining reliable results, depending on one's level of expertise. The Newmark method, with only seismic motions, is widely used because it is simpler than numerical simulations when estimating permanent displacement. However, the empirical equations do not have any parameters for the response characteristics and sliding block of the structure, and sliding blocks being assumed as rigid bodies does not consider the nonlinear behavior of the soil and interaction with the structure. Therefore, in order to evaluate the seismic stability of the gravity quay wall, a newly-developed empirical equation is needed to overcome the above-mentioned limitations. In this study, numerical simulations are performed to analyze the response characteristics of the backfill of the structure, and to propose an optimal method of calculating the active area. For this purpose, finite element analyses were performed to analyze the response characteristics, and stress-strain relationships for various seismic motions. As a result, the response characteristics, sliding block, and failure surface of the backfill vary depending on the input seismic motions.

Size-Specific Dose Estimation In the Korean Lung Cancer Screening Project: Does a 32-cm Diameter Phantom Represent a Standard-Sized Patient in Korean Population?

  • Kim, Eun Young;Kim, Tae Jung;Goo, Jin Mo;Kim, Hyae Young;Lee, Ji Won;Lee, Soojung;Lim, Jun-tae;Kim, Yeol
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.1179-1186
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The purposes of this study were to evaluate size-specific dose estimate (SSDE) of low-dose CT (LDCT) in the Korean Lung Cancer Screening (K-LUCAS) project and to determine whether CT protocols from Western countries are appropriate for lung cancer screening in Korea. Materials and Methods: For participants (n = 256, four institutions) of K-LUCAS pilot study, volume CT dose index ($CTDI_{vol}$) using a 32-cm diameter reference phantom was compared with SSDE, which was recalculated from $CTDI_{vol}$ using size-dependent conversion factor (f-size) based on the body size, as described in the American Association of Physicists in Medicine Report 204. This comparison was subsequently assessed by body mass index (BMI) levels (underweight/normal vs. overweight/obese), and automatic exposure control (AEC) adaptation (yes/no). Results: Size-specific dose estimate was higher than $CTDI_{vol}$ ($2.22{\pm}0.75mGy$ vs. $1.67{\pm}0.60mGy$, p < 0.001), since the f-size was larger than 1.0 for all participants. The ratio of SSDE to $CTDI_{vol}$ was higher in lower BMI groups; 1.26, 1.37, 1.43, and 1.53 in the obese (n = 103), overweight (n = 70), normal (n = 75), and underweight (n = 4), respectively. The ratio of SSDE to $CTDI_{vol}$ was greater in standard-sized participants than in large-sized participants independent of AEC adaptation; with AEC, SSDE/$CTDI_{vol}$ in large- vs. standard-sized participants: $1.30{\pm}0.08$ vs. $1.44{\pm}0.08$ (p < 0.001) and without AEC, $1.32{\pm}0.08$ vs. $1.42{\pm}0.06$ (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Volume CT dose index based on a reference phantom underestimates radiation exposure of LDCT in standard-sized Korean participants. The optimal radiation dose limit needs to be verified for standard-sized Korean participants.

Establishment Model of Entrance and Exit User of Urban Railway Station (도시철도역 출입구 유출입 이용자 추정 모형 수립)

  • Kim, Hwang Bae;Lee, Sang Hwa;Bae, Choon Bong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2019
  • Although the number of users of urban railways is greatly influenced by the land use plan around the railway station, Korea has been studying this problem in a small scale, so that the entrance width is uniformly calculated irrespective of the land use plan, And there is little deviation. Therefore, this study aims to establish a demand estimation model for the entrance and exit of urban railway stations. For this purpose, the demand, land use area, and socioeconomic indicators for each of the 20 urban railway stations were surveyed at 200m and 500m Regression model. The model is based on the assumption that the dependent variable (response variable) of the model is set to 1 day, peak 1 hour, peak time 5 minutes, Education, and park) and socioeconomic indicators (population, employer, employee, and student) as independent variables (explanatory variables). As a result, it was analyzed that the fit of the model is more statistically significant when the use area of the land use by 500 meters of the center radius of the city rail is used as an independent variable and the demand for the daily use of the railway station is used as a dependent variable. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal size of urban railway entrance in order to improve the mobility of the user and the transportation weak in urban railway station.

A Hardware Architecture for Estimating Optimal Capacity of Information System based on Simulation Model (시뮬레이션 모델을 이용한 정보시스템의 적정용량 추정을 위한 하드웨어 아키텍처)

  • Kim, Jeong-su;Lee, Eun-seok;Kim, Jong-hee;Park, Jong-kook;Kim, Jong-bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2014.05a
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    • pp.215-217
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    • 2014
  • A system architecture design relying only on the experience of its designer varies in quality in line with the designer's personal experience and knowledge ability. Likewise, a wrong estimation of hardware capacity ends up in waste of resources. In practice, a range of post-hoc monitoring tools are in operation, without providing any method for estimating and reflecting the performance at an early stage of architecture design. Provided capacity requirement is estimated in advance with simulation at the stage of design, the system capacity ends up in waste of resources. In practice, a range of post-hoc monitoring tools are in operation, without providing any method for estimating and reflecting the performance at an early stage of architecture design. Provided capacity requirement is estimated in advance with simulation at the stage of design, the system performance requirement can be met with a minimal cost while the waste of resources can be reduced to a great extent. In this context, the present study develops a pilot simulation model for hardware architecture design and then verifies its validity in an experiment. If the error rate falls within a permissible range in the experiment, the simulation model may be considered to reflect well the characteristics of real-life information system architecture.

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Optimal Period by Calculating and Appling Correction Factor based on Setting of Non-Working Days of Construction Projects (건설공사의 작업불능일 기준설정에 의한 보정계수 계산 및 적용을 통한 최적공기 산정)

  • Lee, Pil-Yoon;Lee, Seong-Won;Byun, Yo-Seph;Cho, Choong-Yeun;Lee, Min-jae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.669-676
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    • 2018
  • Schedule management in construction work is an important step for determining the construction period. On the other hand, there is a difference between the planned schedule and execution schedule because the estimation and calculation of Non-Working days, in which possible at the design stage is not performed properly. This paper proposes a method for estimating the working days by analyzing characteristics of the major work type and estimating the Non-Working days reflecting the Chuseok and New Year Holidays, which is the closest method to the actual work in the schedule planning. By applying the correction factor of the existing method and the improved method for the same construction in the same site, improved method was reduced by 22 days (9.1%) based on the actual working days. The importance of schedule management was confirmed as an example by comparing the data before and after the application of the standard (plan). These results show that the schedule delays, which are caused by the inconsistency between actual working days calculation that had been practiced conventionally and the working days on the schedule table, can be prevented. In addition, it will help to establish a schedule plan that is closer to reality.

Development of Low-Power IoT Sensor and Cloud-Based Data Fusion Displacement Estimation Method for Ambient Bridge Monitoring (상시 교량 모니터링을 위한 저전력 IoT 센서 및 클라우드 기반 데이터 융합 변위 측정 기법 개발)

  • Park, Jun-Young;Shin, Jun-Sik;Won, Jong-Bin;Park, Jong-Woong;Park, Min-Yong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2021
  • It is important to develop a digital SOC (Social Overhead Capital) maintenance system for preemptive maintenance in response to the rapid aging of social infrastructures. Abnormal signals induced from structures can be detected quickly and optimal decisions can be made promptly using IoT sensors deployed on the structures. In this study, a digital SOC monitoring system incorporating a multimetric IoT sensor was developed for long-term monitoring, for use in cloud-computing server for automated and powerful data analysis, and for establishing databases to perform : (1) multimetric sensing, (2) long-term operation, and (3) LTE-based direct communication. The developed sensor had three axes of acceleration, and five axes of strain sensing channels for multimetric sensing, and had an event-driven power management system that activated the sensors only when vibration exceeded a predetermined limit, or the timer was triggered. The power management system could reduce power consumption, and an additional solar panel charging could enable long-term operation. Data from the sensors were transmitted to the server in real-time via low-power LTE-CAT M1 communication, which does not require an additional gateway device. Furthermore, the cloud server was developed to receive multi-variable data from the sensor, and perform a displacement fusion algorithm to obtain reference-free structural displacement for ambient structural assessment. The proposed digital SOC system was experimentally validated on a steel railroad and concrete girder bridge.

Estimation of Characteristics Treatment for Food Waste with Blast Volume and Preheating of Air using Bio-Drying Process (Bio-drying 공법 활용 공기 투입 및 예열에 따른 음식물류 폐기물 분해 특성 평가)

  • Park, Seyong;Lee, Wonbea
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the efficiency of treatment of moisture and organic matter in food waste was analyzed according to the air blast volume and preheating using the bio-drying method. Te mount of air blast volume and preheating were determined by the evaluation of temperature and CO2 during food waste treatment using the bio-drying method. As a results, the increase in the air blast volume increased the moisture removal efficiency and removal rate, but, lowered the temperature inside the bio-drying by the decease in microbial activity. In order to maintain the activity of microorganisms, it was estimated that it was necessary to inject an appropriate air blast rate according th the properties of the food waste. In this study, the injection of air blast volume at 15L/min was optimal. It was evaluated that the organic matter and water removal rates according to the presence or absence of air preheating, the organic matter removal rate and water removal rate increased by 3-5% when air preheating was not performed. Also, there was no internal aggregation caused by the generation of condensate inside the bio-drying. Therefore, for effective bio-drying of food waste, it is necessary to maintain an appropriate air blast volume to maintain microbial activity, and it is considered that injection through preheating of air is required.

Estimation of regional flow duration curve applicable to ungauged areas using machine learning technique (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 미계측 유역에 적용 가능한 지역화 유황곡선 산정)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Lee, Seung Pil;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1183-1193
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    • 2021
  • Low flow affects various fields such as river water supply management and planning, and irrigation water. A sufficient period of flow data is required to calculate the Flow Duration Curve. However, in order to calculate the Flow Duration Curve, it is essential to secure flow data for more than 30 years. However, in the case of rivers below the national river unit, there is no long-term flow data or there are observed data missing for a certain period in the middle, so there is a limit to calculating the Flow Duration Curve for each river. In the past, statistical-based methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis and ARIMA models were used to predict sulfur in the unmeasured watershed, but recently, the demand for machine learning and deep learning models is increasing. Therefore, in this study, we present the DNN technique, which is a machine learning technique that fits the latest paradigm. The DNN technique is a method that compensates for the shortcomings of the ANN technique, such as difficult to find optimal parameter values in the learning process and slow learning time. Therefore, in this study, the Flow Duration Curve applicable to the unmeasured watershed is calculated using the DNN model. First, the factors affecting the Flow Duration Curve were collected and statistically significant variables were selected through multicollinearity analysis between the factors, and input data were built into the machine learning model. The effectiveness of machine learning techniques was reviewed through statistical verification.

Characteristics of Measurement Errors due to Reflective Sheet Targets - Surveying for Sejong VLBI IVP Estimation (반사 타겟의 관측 오차 특성 분석 - 세종 VLBI IVP 결합 측량)

  • Hong, Chang-Ki;Bae, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.325-332
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    • 2022
  • Determination of VLBI IVP (Very Long Baseline Interferometry Invariant Point) position with high accuracy is required to compute local tie vectors between the space geodetic techniques. In general, reflective targets are attached on VLBI antenna and slant distances, horizontal and vertical angles are measured from the pillars. Then, adjustment computation is performed by using the mathematical model which connects measurements and unknown parameters. This indicates that the accuracy of the estimated solutions is affected by the accuracy of the measurements. One of issues in local tie surveying, however, is that the reflective targets are not in favorable condition, that is, the reflective sheet target cannot be perfectly aligned to the instrument perpendicularly. Deviation from the line of sight of an instrument may cause different type of measurement errors. This inherent limitation may lead to incorrect stochastic modeling for the measurements in adjustment computation procedures. In this study, error characteristics by measurement types and pillars are analyzed, respectively. The analysis on the studentized residuals is performed after adjustment computation. The normality of the residuals is tested and then equal variance test between the measurement types are performed. The results show that there are differences in variance according to the measurement types. Differences in variance between distances and angle measurements are observed when F-test is performed for the measurements from each pillar. Therefore, more detailed stochastic modeling is required for optimal solutions, especially in local tie survey.