• Title/Summary/Keyword: observation-error model

Search Result 259, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Evaluation of hydrological applicability for rainfall estimation algorithms of dual-polarization radar (이중편파 레이더의 강우 추정 알고리즘별 수문학적 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Myungjin;Lee, Choongke;Yoo, Younghoon;Kwak, Jaewon;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.1
    • /
    • pp.27-38
    • /
    • 2021
  • Recently, many studies have been conducted to use the radar rainfall in hydrology. However, in the case of weather radar, the beam is blocked due to the limitation of the observation such as mountain effect, which causes underestimation of the radar rainfall. In this study, the radar rainfall was estimated using the Hybrid Sacn Reflectivity (HSR) technique for hydrological use of weather radar and the runoff analysis was performed using the GRM model which is a distributed rainfall-runoff model. As a result of performing the radar rainfall correction and runoff simulation for 5 rainfall events, the accuracy of the dual-polarization radar rainfall using the HSR technique (Q_H_KDP) was the highest with an error within 15% of the ground rainfall. In addition, the result of runoff simulation using Q_H_KDP also showed an accuracy of R2 of 0.9 or more, NRMSE of 1.5 or less and NSE of 0.5 or more. From this study, we examined the application of the dual-polarization radar and this results can be useful for studies related to the hydrological application of dual-polarization radar rainfall in the future.

High-Resolution Numerical Simulations with WRF/Noah-MP in Cheongmicheon Farmland in Korea During the 2014 Special Observation Period (2014년 특별관측 기간 동안 청미천 농경지에서의 WRF/Noah-MP 고해상도 수치모의)

  • Song, Jiae;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kang, Minseok;Moon, Minkyu;Lee, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.384-398
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this paper, the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting/Noah-MultiParameterization (WRF/Noah-MP) modeling system is configured for the Cheongmicheon Farmland site in Korea (CFK), and its performance in land and atmospheric simulation is evaluated using the observed data at CFK during the 2014 special observation period (21 August-10 September). In order to explore the usefulness of turning on Noah-MP dynamic vegetation in midterm simulations of surface and atmospheric variables, two numerical experiments are conducted without dynamic vegetation and with dynamic vegetation (referred to as CTL and DVG experiments, respectively). The main results are as following. 1) CTL showed a tendency of overestimating daytime net shortwave radiation, thereby surface heat fluxes and Bowen ratio. The CTL experiment showed reasonable magnitudes and timing of air temperature at 2 m and 10 m; especially the small error in simulating minimum air temperature showed high potential for predicting frost and leaf wetness duration. The CTL experiment overestimated 10-m wind and precipitation, but the beginning and ending time of precipitation were well captured. 2) When the dynamic vegetation was turned on, the WRF/Noah-MP system showed more realistic values of leaf area index (LAI), net shortwave radiation, surface heat fluxes, Bowen ratio, air temperature, wind and precipitation. The DVG experiment, where LAI is a prognostic variable, produced larger LAI than CTL, and the larger LAI showed better agreement with the observed. The simulated Bowen ratio got closer to the observed ratio, indicating reasonable surface energy partition. The DVG experiment showed patterns similar to CTL, with differences for maximum air temperature. Both experiments showed faster rising of 10-m air temperature during the morning growth hours, presumably due to the rapid growth of daytime mixed layers in the Yonsei University (YSU) boundary layer scheme. The DVG experiment decreased errors in simulating 10-m wind and precipitation. 3) As horizontal resolution increases, the models did not show practical improvement in simulation performance for surface fluxes, air temperature, wind and precipitation, and required three-dimensional observation for more agricultural land spots as well as consistency in model topography and land cover data.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-251
    • /
    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Case study on flood water level prediction accuracy of LSTM model according to condition of reference hydrological station combination (참조 수문관측소 구성 조건에 따른 LSTM 모형 홍수위예측 정확도 검토 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Kim, Sooyoung;Jung, Jaewon;Yoon, Kwang Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.56 no.12
    • /
    • pp.981-992
    • /
    • 2023
  • Due to recent global climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing as rainfall is concentrated and its intensity increases. Rain on a scale that has not been observed in the past may fall, and long-term rainy seasons that have not been recorded may occur. These damages are also concentrated in ASEAN countries, and many people in ASEAN countries are affected, along with frequent occurrences of flooding due to typhoons and torrential rains. In particular, the Bandung region which is located in the Upper Chitarum River basin in Indonesia has topographical characteristics in the form of a basin, making it very vulnerable to flooding. Accordingly, through the Official Development Assistance (ODA), a flood forecasting and warning system was established for the Upper Citarium River basin in 2017 and is currently in operation. Nevertheless, the Upper Citarium River basin is still exposed to the risk of human and property damage in the event of a flood, so efforts to reduce damage through fast and accurate flood forecasting are continuously needed. Therefore, in this study an artificial intelligence-based river flood water level forecasting model for Dayeu Kolot as a target station was developed by using 10-minute hydrological data from 4 rainfall stations and 1 water level station. Using 10-minute hydrological observation data from 6 stations from January 2017 to January 2021, learning, verification, and testing were performed for lead time such as 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hour and LSTM was applied as an artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, good results were shown in model fit and error for all lead times, and as a result of reviewing the prediction accuracy according to the learning dataset conditions, it is expected to be used to build an efficient artificial intelligence-based model as it secures prediction accuracy similar to that of using all observation stations even when there are few reference stations.

Observation of Ice Gradient in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Modified U-Net from Landsat -5/-7/-8 Images (Landsat 위성 영상으로부터 Modified U-Net을 이용한 백두산 천지 얼음변화도 관측)

  • Lee, Eu-Ru;Lee, Ha-Seong;Park, Sun-Cheon;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.38 no.6_2
    • /
    • pp.1691-1707
    • /
    • 2022
  • Cheonji Lake, the caldera of Baekdu Mountain, located on the border of the Korean Peninsula and China, alternates between melting and freezing seasonally. There is a magma chamber beneath Cheonji, and variations in the magma chamber cause volcanic antecedents such as changes in the temperature and water pressure of hot spring water. Consequently, there is an abnormal region in Cheonji where ice melts quicker than in other areas, freezes late even during the freezing period, and has a high-temperature water surface. The abnormal area is a discharge region for hot spring water, and its ice gradient may be used to monitor volcanic activity. However, due to geographical, political and spatial issues, periodic observation of abnormal regions of Cheonji is limited. In this study, the degree of ice change in the optimal region was quantified using a Landsat -5/-7/-8 optical satellite image and a Modified U-Net regression model. From January 22, 1985 to December 8, 2020, the Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR) band of 83 Landsat images including anomalous regions was utilized. Using the relative spectral reflectance of water and ice in the VNIR band, unique data were generated for quantitative ice variability monitoring. To preserve as much information as possible from the visible and near-infrared bands, ice gradient was noticed by applying it to U-Net with two encoders, achieving good prediction accuracy with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 140 and a correlation value of 0.9968. Since the ice change value can be seen with high precision from Landsat images using Modified U-Net in the future may be utilized as one of the methods to monitor Baekdu Mountain's volcanic activity, and a more specific volcano monitoring system can be built.

Evaluation of Network-RTK Survey Accuracy for Applying to Ground Control Points Survey (지상기준점측량 적용을 위한 Network-RTK 측량 정확도 평가)

  • Kim, Kwang Bae;Lee, Chang Kyung;An, Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.127-133
    • /
    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of Network-RTK(VRS) survey for applying to Ground Control Points(GCPs) survey required for mapping aerial photographs. Network-RTK has been serviced by National Geographic Information Institute since 2007. On the basis of the global coordinates system(ITRF2000), the coordinates of GCPs determined by Static GNSS survey with relative positioning techniques were regarded as accurate values. The coordinates of GCPs were also determined by Network-RTK survey using two kinds of receivers, and then they were converted into the global coordinates system(ITRF2000) by applying suitable geoid model and coordinate transformation. These coordinates of GCPs were compared with those from Static GNSS survey. The root mean squares error (RMSE) of coordinate differences between Network-RTK and Static GNSS was ${\pm}2.0cm$ in plane and ${\pm}7.0cm$ in height. Therefore, Network-RTK survey that enables single GNSS receiver to measure positions in short time is a practical alternative in positioning GCPs to either RTK survey that uses more than two sets of GNSS receivers or Static GNSS survey that requires longer observation time.

A Numerical Simulation Study of Strong Wind Events at Jangbogo Station, Antarctica (남극 장보고기지 주변 강풍사례 모의 연구)

  • Kwon, Hataek;Kim, Shin-Woo;Lee, Solji;Park, Sang-Jong;Choi, Taejin;Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Kim, Seong-Joong;Kim, Baek-Min
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.617-633
    • /
    • 2016
  • Jangbogo station is located in Terra Nova Bay over the East Antarctica, which is often affected by individual storms moving along nearby storm tracks and a katabatic flow from the continental interior towards the coast. A numerical simulation for two strong wind events of maximum instantaneous wind speed ($41.17m\;s^{-1}$) and daily mean wind speed ($23.92m\;s^{-1}$) at Jangbogo station are conducted using the polar-optimized version of Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF). Verifying model results from 3 km grid resolution simulation against AWS observation at Jangbogo station, the case of maximum instantaneous wind speed is relatively simulated well with high skill in wind with a bias of $-3.3m\;s^{-1}$ and standard deviation of $5.4m\;s^{-1}$. The case of maximum daily mean wind speed showed comparatively lower accuracy for the simulation of wind speed with a bias of -7.0 m/s and standard deviation of $8.6m\;s^{-1}$. From the analysis, it is revealed that the each case has different origins for strong wind. The highest maximum instantaneous wind case is caused by the approach of the strong synoptic low pressure system moving toward Terra Nova Bay from North and the other daily wind maximum speed case is mainly caused by the katabatic flow from the interiors of Terra Nova Bay towards the coast. Our evaluation suggests that the Polar WRF can be used as a useful dynamic downscaling tool for the simulation and investigation of high wind events at Jangbogo station. However, additional efforts in utilizing the high resolution terrain is required to reduce the simulation error of high wind mainly caused by katabatic flow, which is received a lot of influence of the surrounding terrain.

A Study on DEM Generation from Kompsat-3 Stereo Images (아리랑 3호 스테레오 위성영상의 DEM 제작 성능 분석)

  • Oh, Jae Hong;Seo, Doo Chun;Lee, Chang No
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.19-27
    • /
    • 2014
  • Kompsat-3 is an optical high-resolution earth observation satellite launched in May 2012. In addition to its 0.7m spatial resolution, Kompsat-3 is capable of in-track stereo acquisition enabling quality Digital Elevation Model(DEM) generation. Typical DEM generation procedure requires accurate control points well-distributed over the entire image region. But we often face difficult situations especially when the area of interests is oversea or inaccessible area. One solution to this is to use existing geospatial data even though they only cover a part of the image. This paper aimed to assess accuracy of DEM from Kompsat-3 with different scenarios including no control point, Rational Polynomial Coefficients(RPC) relative adjustment, and RPC adjustment with control points. Experiments were carried out for Kompsat-3 stereo data in USA. We used Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle(DOQ) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM) as control points sources. The generated DEMs are compared to a LiDAR DEM for accuracy assessment. The test results showed that the relative RPC adjustment significantly improved DEM accuracy without any control point. And comparable DEM could be derived from single control point from DOQ and SRTM, showing 7 meters of mean elevation error.

Risk assessment for water quality of a river using QUAL2E model (QUAL2E 모형을 이용한 하천수질의 위해성평가)

  • Kim, Jungwook;Kim, Yonsoo;Kang, Narae;Jung, Jaewon;Kim, Soojun;Noh, Huiseong;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.441-450
    • /
    • 2014
  • In this study, we consider ability of self-purification for a rational water quality management. And we assess the risk of Alkyl Benzene Sulfonic acid sodium salt(ABS) of harmful ingredients in Anseong Cheon watershed using QUAL2E model. The observations and simulated results were fitted well for BOD and ABS, but even though the trend of DO concentration change was well represented, the error between observation and simulation values was existed. We assessed the Risk assessment by calculating Risk quotient(RQ) by Predicted Exposure Concentration(PEC) and Predicted No-Effect Concentration(PNEC). Results of the impact of ABS on the self-purification of the river were Anseongcheon[0.0003(Bressan), 0.06(Criteria of Ministry of environment)], Jinwicheon[0.0002(Bressan), 0.04(Criteria of Ministry of environment). And result of the impact of ABS on the Aquatic ecosystem of the river were Anseongcheon[0.0667(Bressan), 0.005(Criteria of Ministry of environment)], Jinwicheon[0.1(Bressan), 0.0075(Criteria of Ministry of environment). All of these results were smaller than the 1.0 which is the reference value suggested by Norification No.30 of the National Institute of Environment Research. So, ABS did not affect a self-purification and aquatic ecosystem of the river. The method suggested in the study is a simple one and can provide more information for harmful ingredients than criteria of Ministry of environment.

An Application of Statistical Downscaling Method for Construction of High-Resolution Coastal Wave Prediction System in East Sea (고해상도 동해 연안 파랑예측모델 구축을 위한 통계적 규모축소화 방법 적용)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Zo, Il-Sung;Lee, Kyu-Tae;Lee, Won-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.40 no.3
    • /
    • pp.259-271
    • /
    • 2019
  • A statistical downscaling method was adopted in order to establish the high-resolution wave prediction system in the East Sea coastal area. This system used forecast data from the Global Wave Watch (GWW) model, and the East Sea and Busan Coastal Wave Watch (CWW) model operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). We used the CWW forecast data until three days and the GWW forecast data from three to seven days to implement the statistical downscaling method (inverse distance weight interpolation and conditional merge). The two-dimensional and station wave heights as well as sea surface wind speed from the high-resolution coastal prediction system were verified with statistical analysis, using an initial analysis field and oceanic observation with buoys carried out by the KMA and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). Similar to the predictive performance of the GWW and the CWW data, the system has a high predictive performance at the initial stages that decreased gradually with forecast time. As a result, during the entire prediction period, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of the predicted wave heights improved from 0.46 and 0.34 m to 0.6 and 0.28 m before and after applying the statistical downscaling method.