Journal of the Korean earth science society (한국지구과학회지)

The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
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An Application of Statistical Downscaling Method for Construction of High-Resolution Coastal Wave Prediction System in East Sea

고해상도 동해 연안 파랑예측모델 구축을 위한 통계적 규모축소화 방법 적용

  • Jee, Joon-Bum (Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) ;
  • Zo, Il-Sung (Research Institute for Radiation-Satellite, Gangneung-Wonju National University) ;
  • Lee, Kyu-Tae (Research Institute for Radiation-Satellite, Gangneung-Wonju National University) ;
  • Lee, Won-Hak (Research Institute for Gangwon)
  • 지준범 (한국외국어대학교 대기환경연구센터) ;
  • 조일성 (강릉원주대학교 복사-위성연구소) ;
  • 이규태 (강릉원주대학교 복사-위성연구소) ;
  • 이원학 (강원연구원)
  • Received : 2019.03.15
  • Accepted : 2019.06.05
  • Published : 2019.06.30
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Abstract

A statistical downscaling method was adopted in order to establish the high-resolution wave prediction system in the East Sea coastal area. This system used forecast data from the Global Wave Watch (GWW) model, and the East Sea and Busan Coastal Wave Watch (CWW) model operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). We used the CWW forecast data until three days and the GWW forecast data from three to seven days to implement the statistical downscaling method (inverse distance weight interpolation and conditional merge). The two-dimensional and station wave heights as well as sea surface wind speed from the high-resolution coastal prediction system were verified with statistical analysis, using an initial analysis field and oceanic observation with buoys carried out by the KMA and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). Similar to the predictive performance of the GWW and the CWW data, the system has a high predictive performance at the initial stages that decreased gradually with forecast time. As a result, during the entire prediction period, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of the predicted wave heights improved from 0.46 and 0.34 m to 0.6 and 0.28 m before and after applying the statistical downscaling method.

동해 연안지역의 고해상도 파랑예측을 위하여 통계적 규모축소화 방안을 적용하여 고해상도 동해 연안 파랑예측시스템을 구축하였다. 예측시스템을 구축하기 위하여 기상청 현업에서 예측된 동해 및 남해 연안파랑예측모델과 전구파랑예측모델의 예측결과를 이용하였다. 3일까지는 연안파랑예측모델들의 결과를 그대로 활용하였고 3일 이후 7일까지는 전구파랑예측모델의 예측결과를 통계적 규모축소화 방안(역거리 가중 내삽방법과 조건부합성방법)을 적용하여 예측하였다. 예측된 고해상도 연안예측시스템을 이용하여 예측된 파고의 2차원 공간분포는 연안예측모델의 초기장(분석장)과 자기상관관계를 이용하여 검증하였고 부이 등 해양관측소 자료를 이용하여 파고 및 풍속 예측을 검증되었다. 수치모델의 예측성능과 유사하게 초기시간에는 예측성능이 높게 나타났으나 시간이 지남에 따라 예측성능이 점진적으로 감소되었다. 전체 기간의 파고 예측결과를 파고 관측자료를 이용하여 검증하였을 때 역거리 가중 내삽과 조건부합성방법 적용에 따른 상관계수와 평균 제곱근 오차는 0.46과 0.34 m에서 0.6과 0.28 m로 개선되었다.

Keywords

References

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