• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.6
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• pp.123-132
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• 2019

This study is to estimate the spatial soil moisture using Terra MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data and machine learning technique. Using the 3 years (2015~2017) data of MODIS 16 days composite NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and daily Land Surface Temperature (LST), ground measured precipitation and sunshine hour of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), the RDA (Rural Development Administration) 10 cm~30 cm average TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) measured soil moisture at 78 locations was tested. For daily analysis, the missing values of MODIS LST by clouds were interpolated by conditional merging method using KMA surface temperature observation data, and the 16 days NDVI was linearly interpolated to 1 day interval. By applying the RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory) artificial neural network model, 70% of the total period was trained and the rest 30% period was verified. The results showed that the coefficient of determination ($R^2$), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency were 0.78, 2.76%, and 0.75 respectively. In average, the clay soil moisture was estimated well comparing with the other soil types of silt, loam, and sand. This is because the clay has the intrinsic physical property for having narrow range of soil moisture variation between field capacity and wilting point.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.21-36
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• 2019

Dead fuel moisture content is a key variable in fire danger rating as it affects fire ignition and behavior. This study evaluates simple regression models estimating the moisture content of standardized 10-h fuel stick (10-h FMC) at three sites with different characteristics(urban and outside/inside the forest). Equilibrium moisture content (EMC) was used as an independent variable, and in-situ measured 10-h FMC was used as a dependent variable and validation data. 10-h FMC spatial distribution maps were created for dates with the most frequent fire occurrence during 2013-2018. Also, 10-h FMC values of the dates were analyzed to investigate under which 10-h FMC condition forest fire is likely to occur. As the results, fitted equations could explain considerable part of the variance in 10-h FMC (62~78%). Compared to the validation data, the models performed well with R2 ranged from 0.53 to 0.68, root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 2.52% to 3.43%, and bias ranged from -0.41% to 1.10%. When the 10-h FMC model fitted for one site was applied to the other sites, $R^2$ was maintained as the same while RMSE and bias increased up to 5.13% and 3.68%, respectively. The major deficiency of the 10-h FMC model was that it poorly caught the difference in the drying process after rainfall between 10-h FMC and EMC. From the analysis of 10-h FMC during the dates fire occurred, more than 70% of the fires occurred under a 10-h FMC condition of less than 10.5%. Overall, the present study suggested a simple model estimating 10-h FMC with acceptable performance. Applying the 10-h FMC model to the automatic mountain weather observation system was successfully tested to produce a national-scale 10-h FMC spatial distribution map. This data will be fundamental information for forest fire research, and will support the policy maker.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.67-84
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• 2010

In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.5
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• pp.321-331
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• 2022

In this study, we tried to present a method for calculating the amount of regression using a watershed modeling method that can simulate the hydrological mechanism of water balance analysis and agricultural water based on watershed unit. Using the soil water assessment tool (SWAT), a watershed water balance analysis was conducted considering the simulation of paddy fields for the Manbongcheon Standard Basin (97.34 km²), which is a representative agricultural area of the Yeongsan river basin. Before evaluating return flow, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using the daily streamflow observation data at Naju streamflow gauge station (NJ). The coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of NJ were 0.73, 0.70, 0.64 mm/day. Based on the calibration results for three years (2015-2017), the quick return flow and the return rate compared to the water supply amount for the irrigation period (April 1 to September 30) were calculated, and the average return flow rate was 53.4%. The proposed method of this study may be used as foundation data to optimal agricultural water supply plan for rational watershed management.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.855-863
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• 2022

In this study, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was used to mapping air temperature in Seoul. MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiomter (MODIS) data was used as auxiliary data for mapping. For the ANN network topology optimizing, scatterplots and statistical analysis were conducted, and input-data was classified and combined that highly correlated data which surface temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), time (satellite observation time, Day of year), location (latitude, hardness), and data quality (cloudness). When machine learning was conducted only with data with a high correlation with air temperature, the average values of correlation coefficient (r) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were 0.967 and 2.708℃. In addition, the performance improved as other data were added, and when all data were utilized the average values of r and RMSE were 0.9840 and 1.883℃, which showed the best performance. In the Seoul air temperature map by the ANN model, the air temperature was appropriately calculated for each pixels topographic characteristics, and it will be possible to analyze the air temperature distribution in city-level and national-level by expanding research areas and diversifying satellite data.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.565-577
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to propose a method for computing the Natural Drought Index (NDI) that does not consider man-made drought facilities. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to estimate the NDI. Three monthly moving cumulative runoff, soil moisture and precipitation were selected as input data of the NDI during 1977~2012. Observed precipitation data was collected from KMA ASOS (Korea Meteorological Association Automatic Synoptic Observation System), while model-driven runoff and soil moisture from Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC Model) were used. Time series analysis, drought characteristic analysis and spatial analysis were used to assess the utilization of NDI and compare with existing SPI, SRI and SSI. The NDI precisely reflected onset and termination of past drought events with mean absolute error of 0.85 in time series analysis. It explained well duration and inter-arrival time with 1.3 and 1.0 respectively in drought characteristic analysis. Also, the NDI reflected regional drought condition well in spatial analysis. The accuracy rank of drought onset, termination, duration and inter-arrival time was calculated by using NDI, SPI, SRI and SSI. The result showed that NDI is more precise than the others. The NDI overcomes the limitation of univariate drought indices and can be useful for drought analysis as representative measure of different types of drought such as meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.31 no.6_1
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• pp.503-509
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• 2013

The KOMPSAT-3 (Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-3), was launched on May 18, 2012, is an optical high-resolution observation mission of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute and provides RPC(Rational Polynomial Coefficient) for ground coordinate determination. It is however need to adjust because RPC absorbs effects of interior-exterior orientation errors. In this study, to obtain the suitable adjustment parameters of the vendor-provided RPC of the KOMPSAT-3 images, six types of adjustment models were implemented. As results, the errors of two and six adjustment parameters differed approximately 0.1m. We thus propose the two parameters model, the number of control points are required the least, to adjust the KOMPSAT-3 R PC. According to the increasing the number of control points, RPC adjustment was performed. The proposed model with a control point particularly did not exceed a maximum error 3m. As demonstrated in this paper, the two parameters model can be applied in RPC adjustment of KOMPSAT-3 stereo image.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.624-630
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• 2012

The peer review learning is a method which improves learning outcome of students through feedback between students and the observation and analysis of other students. One of the important problems in a peer review system is to find proper evaluators to each learner considering characteristics of students for improving learning outcomes. Some of peer review systems randomly assign peer review evaluators to learners, or chose evaluators based on limited strategies. However, these systems have a problem that they do not consider various characteristics of learners and evaluators who participate in peer reviews. In this paper, we propose a novel prediction approach of learning outcomes to apply peer review systems considering various characteristics of learners and evaluators. The proposed approach extracts representative attributes from the profiles of students and predicts learning outcomes using various regression models. In order to verify how much outliers affect on the prediction of learning outcomes, we also apply several outlier removal methods to the regression models and compare the predictive performance of learning outcomes. The experiment result says that the SVR model which does not removes outliers shows an error rate of 0.47% on average and has the best predictive performance.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.136-150
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• 2002

To improve the water quality of the recently constructed Siwhaho, sluice gates were operated to allow free exchange of water with the sea. This estuarine lake connected to the outer sea through narrow gates is affected mainly by flushing by gate operation and river flows and wind forcing sometimes. As a predicting tool far the water qualities, a three-dimensional finite volume model CE-QUAL-ICM is incorporated into a finite element hydrodynamic model, TIDE3D. In coupling these two different modules, a new error minimization technique is applied by considering conservation of mass. Model tests for one year after calibration and validation using field observation show that eutrophication and other biological changes reach quasi-steady state after initial 60 days of simulation, thus it would be necessary to consider moderate ramp up option to remove initial uncertainties due to cold start option. Sediment-water interaction might not be a concern in the long-term simulation, since its effect is negligible. Simulated results show the newly applied scheme can be applied with satisfaction not only fur lessening of eutrophic processes in an estuarine lake but also looking for some active circulation to improve water quality.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.122-133
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• 2021

Cultivar parameter calibration can be affected by the reliability of the input data to a crop growth model. In South Korea, two sets of weather stations, which are included in the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS) or the automatic weather system (AWS), are available for preparation of the weather input data. The objectives of this study were to estimate the cultivar parameter using those sets of weather data and to compare the uncertainty of these parameters. The cultivar parameters of CERES-Rice model for Shindongjin cultivar was calibrated using the weather data measured at the weather stations included in either ASO S or AWS. The observation data of crop growth and management at the experiment farms were retrieved from the report of new cultivar development and research published by Rural Development Administration. The weather stations were chosen to be the nearest neighbor to the experiment farms where crop data were collected. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used to calibrate the cultivar parameters for 100 times, which resulted in the distribution of parameter values. O n average, the errors of the heading date decreased by one day when the weather input data were obtained from the weather stations included in AWS compared with ASO S. In particular, reduction of the estimation error was observed even when the distance between the experiment farm and the ASOS stations was about 15 km. These results suggest that the use of the AWS stations would improve the reliability and applicability of the crop growth models for decision support as well as parameter calibration.