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http://dx.doi.org/10.11108/kagis.2019.22.3.021

Modeling and mapping fuel moisture content using equilibrium moisture content computed from weather data of the automatic mountain meteorology observation system (AMOS)  

Lee, HoonTaek (Division of Forest Ecology and Climate Change, National Institute of Forest Science)
WON, Myoung-Soo (Division of Forest Ecology and Climate Change, National Institute of Forest Science)
YOON, Suk-Hee (Division of Forest Ecology and Climate Change, National Institute of Forest Science)
JANG, Keun-Chang (Division of Forest Ecology and Climate Change, National Institute of Forest Science)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies / v.22, no.3, 2019 , pp. 21-36 More about this Journal
Abstract
Dead fuel moisture content is a key variable in fire danger rating as it affects fire ignition and behavior. This study evaluates simple regression models estimating the moisture content of standardized 10-h fuel stick (10-h FMC) at three sites with different characteristics(urban and outside/inside the forest). Equilibrium moisture content (EMC) was used as an independent variable, and in-situ measured 10-h FMC was used as a dependent variable and validation data. 10-h FMC spatial distribution maps were created for dates with the most frequent fire occurrence during 2013-2018. Also, 10-h FMC values of the dates were analyzed to investigate under which 10-h FMC condition forest fire is likely to occur. As the results, fitted equations could explain considerable part of the variance in 10-h FMC (62~78%). Compared to the validation data, the models performed well with R2 ranged from 0.53 to 0.68, root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 2.52% to 3.43%, and bias ranged from -0.41% to 1.10%. When the 10-h FMC model fitted for one site was applied to the other sites, $R^2$ was maintained as the same while RMSE and bias increased up to 5.13% and 3.68%, respectively. The major deficiency of the 10-h FMC model was that it poorly caught the difference in the drying process after rainfall between 10-h FMC and EMC. From the analysis of 10-h FMC during the dates fire occurred, more than 70% of the fires occurred under a 10-h FMC condition of less than 10.5%. Overall, the present study suggested a simple model estimating 10-h FMC with acceptable performance. Applying the 10-h FMC model to the automatic mountain weather observation system was successfully tested to produce a national-scale 10-h FMC spatial distribution map. This data will be fundamental information for forest fire research, and will support the policy maker.
Keywords
Mountain Meteorology; Fuel Moisture Content; Equilibrium Moisture Content; Regression Model; Forest Fire;
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