• Title/Summary/Keyword: multivariate logistic regression

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The Predictors of Cerebral Infarction in Mitral Stenosis (승모판협착증 환자에서 뇌경색발생의 예측인자)

  • Kim, Hyung-Jun;Kim, Woong;Lee, Jong-Suk;Hong, Gue-Ru;Park, Jong-Sean;Sin, Dong-Gu;Kim, Young-Jo;Shim, Bong-Sup
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2000
  • Background: Systemic embolism, especially, cerebral infarction is one of the most important complications in patients with mitral stenosis. The authors analyzed the some factors that could predict the development of cerebral infarction in cases of mitral stenosis and propose preventive therapeutic measures. Methods: Retrospective study of 127 patients with rheumatic mitral stenosis was performed by analyzing their medical records for transthoracic(TTE) or transesophageal echocardiography(TEE) over a 12 months period. The patients were divided into two groups according to the presence (Group I: n=26, age: $55.0{\pm}13$ years) or absence (Group II: n=101, age: $48.5{\pm}13$ years) of cerebral infarction. No significant difference was observed between the two groups with respect to sex and functional class. Results: Patients in group I were older ($55.0{\pm}13$ vs $48.5{\pm}13$;p<0.05). had more dilated left atrial size($5.10{\pm}0.48$ vs $4.81{\pm}0.70$;p<0.05) and smaller mitral surface area($1.01{\pm}0.39$ vs $1.21{\pm}0.45$;p<0.05). In Group 1. the incidence of atrial fibrillation(22 out of 26 vs 57 out of 101;p<0.05) and spontaneous left intra-atrial contrast phenomenon(22 out of 26 vs 44 out of 101;p<0.05) was more frequently observed. On multivariate analysis. atrial fibrillation and anticoagulant therapy were the independent predictive factors. Conclusion: Age, left atrial dilatation, the severity of mitral stenosis, the presence of spontaneous contrast, and especially the presence of atrial fibrillation are the main predictive factors of the development of cerebral infarction in mitral stenosis. Patients presenting one or several of these factors may benefit from prophylactic anticoagulant treatment.

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Association of Hypercapnia in the First Week of Life with Severe Intraventricular Hemorrhage in the Ventilated Preterm Infants (기계적 환기 요법을 시행 받은 미숙아에서 고탄산혈증과 뇌실내 출혈의 발생과의 관계)

  • Kim, Jeong-Eun;Namgung, Ran;Park, Min-Soo;Park, Kook-In;Lee, Chul;Kim, Myung-Jun
    • Neonatal Medicine
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.34-43
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : The aim of this study was to examine whether hypercapnia during the first seven days of life was associated with severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) in preterm infants requiring mechanical ventilation. Methods : A matched pair analysis was performed for 19 preterm infants with severe IVH(grade$\geq$3) and 38 infants with no severe IVH (normal or grade 1), who required mechanical ventilation for more than seven days. The univariate and multivariate analysis of severe IVH with maximal and minimal $PaCO_2$, averag $PaCO_2$, SD of $PaCO_2$, and difference in the $PaCO_2$ were assessed. The major perinatal factors and maximal ventilator index (VI) were also compared. Results : Infants with severe IVH had a higher maximal $PaCO_2$ (86.1$\pm$18.4 mmHg vs. 60.1$\pm$ 11.6 mmHg, P <0.001) and mean $PaCO_2$ (47.5$\pm$5.6 mmHg vs. 41.2$\pm$6.3 mmHg, P=0.004) and a larger SD or difference in $PaCO_2$ (14.0$\pm$4.4 mmHg vs. 9.0$\pm$2.4 mmHg; 60.3$\pm$20.9 mmHg vs. 35.5$\pm$11.8 mmHg, P <0.001). However the minimal $PaCO_2$ values did not differ between the groups. Disseminated intravascular coagulation, pulmonary hemorrhage, and the air leak syndrome were more frequent in the IVH group than in the controls. The maximal VI on each day was higher in the IVH group. The multivariate logistic regression analysis after controlling for bleeding tendency showed that the air leak syndrome, maximal VI, and maximal $PaCO_2$ were independently associated with severe IVH [OR, 1.324 (95% CI, 1.011-1.733; P=0.041)]. Conclusion : Extreme hypercapnia was significantly associated with severe IVH in preterm infants, after adjustment for major perinatal risk factors. Frequent monitoring of the $PaCO_2$ may be important for early detection of inadvertent hypercapnia and prompt correction of high PaCOS levels.

Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

Early Recurrence of Breast Cancer after the Primary Treatment: Analysis of Clinicopathological and Radiological Predictive Factors (유방암 일차치료 후 조기 재발: 임상병리학적 및 영상의학적 예측인자 분석)

  • Sun Geun Yun;Yeong Yi An;Sung Hun Kim;Bong Joo Kang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.2
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    • pp.395-408
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    • 2020
  • Purpose To evaluate the value of clinicopathologic factors and imaging features of primary breast cancer in predicting early recurrence after the primary treatment. Materials and Methods We enrolled 480 patients who had been followed-up after breast-conserving surgery and adjuvant therapy from January 2010 to December 2014 at our hospital. Early recurrence was defined as recurrence within 3 years after completion of primary treatment, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the clinicopathologic and imaging predictive factors of early recurrence. Results In the univariate analysis, among the clinicopathologic factors, advanced stage (p = 0.021), high histologic grade (p < 0.001), estrogen receptor negative (p = 0.002), high Ki-67 proliferation index (p = 0.017), and triple-negative breast cancer (p = 0.019), and among the imaging features, multifocality (p < 0.001), vessels in the rim on Doppler ultrasonography (US) (p = 0.012), and rim enhancement (p < 0.001) on magnetic resonance imaging of the breast were significantly associated with early recurrence. In the multivariate analysis, advanced stage [odds ratio (OR) = 3.47; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-10.73; p = 0.031] and vessels in the rim on Doppler US (OR = 3.32; 95% CI 1.38-8.02; p = 0.008) were the independent predictive factors of early recurrence. Conclusion Vascular findings in the rim of the primary breast cancer on Doppler US before treatment is a radiologic independent predictive factor of early recurrence after the primary treatment.

Quality and Affecting Factor of Care for Patients Hospitalized with Pneumonia (폐렴 입원환자 진료과정의 질적 수준과 이에 영향을 미치는 요인: 임상질지표를 중심으로)

  • Moon, Sangjun;Lee, Jin-Seok;Kim, Yoon;You, Sun-Ju;Choi, Yun-Kyoung;Suh, Soo Kyung;Kim, Yong-Ik
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.66 no.4
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    • pp.300-308
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    • 2009
  • Background: The quality of care for patients with community acquired pneumonia needs to be improved; the factors affecting this care need to be analyzed. The objectives of this study were used to measure the performance of care processes of for patients with pneumonia and to determine those patient and hospital characteristics are associated with quality care. Methods: The analysis was performed using data from 21 hospitals that had over 500 beds for 1,001 patients, who were sampled randomly. All patients were born before 31 December 1989, and discharged between the two months' August 2006 and October 2006. Performance process indicators were measured by respective hospital, and multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate associations between patients and hospital characteristics using 4 process indicators. Results: Performance rates in timely assessment of oxygenation assessments and blood cultures, correct administration of antibiotic medications, and blood culture performed prior to initial antibiotics were 69.4%, 79.1%, 82.5% and 60.5%, respectively. Age had a positive affect on oxygenation assessment within 24 hours. Bed number, number of nurses per bed, annual number of emergency department visits, average percentage of beds filled, location and arrival time, and site were factors associated with process indicators. Conclusion: It is necessary to make up for the weak points in the process of care for patients with community acquired pneumonia, by enforcing quality assurance. To reduce performance rate variation among hospitals, improvement in care protocols is required for hospitals that have poor quality of care levels.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Clinical implication of Dendritic Cell Infiltration in Cervical Tuberculous Lymphadenitis (결핵성 경부 림프절염에서 수지상돌기세포의 침윤과 임상양상의 연관성)

  • Jung, Jae Woo;Lee, Young Woo;Choi, Jae Cheol;Yoo, Seung Min;Lee, Hwa Yeon;Lim, Seoung Young;Shin, Jong Wook;Kim, Jae Yoel;Park, In Whn;Kim, Mi Kyung;Choi, Byoung Whui
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.60 no.5
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    • pp.523-531
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    • 2006
  • Background : Cervical tuberculous lymphadenopathy is a very common disease with a similar incidence to pulmonary tuberculosis. Dendritic cells play a role of initial antigen presentation of this illness. Nevertheless, the precise role of these antigen-presenting cells according to the clinical features in unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical implication of dendritic cell infiltration in the cervical lymph nodes. Methods : A review of the clinical characteristics was carried out retrospectively based on the clinical records and radiography. Immunohistochemical staining was performed on the available histology specimens of 72 cases using the S-100b polyclonal antibody for dendritic cells. The number of dendritic cells with tuberculous granuloma were determined. A $X^2$ test, unpaired T test and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed. Results : Thirty percent of subjects had previous or concurrent pulmonary TB. Twenty one percent of cases showed a positive reaction on the AFB stain. Within a granuloma, the number of infiltrated dendritic cells was $113.0{\pm}7.0$. The incidence of fever and cough decreased with increasing infiltration of dendritic cells Multivariate regression analysis showed that the infiltration of dendritic cells could significantly contribute to fever. Conclusion : Overall, dendritic cells can control a Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and modulate the immune response, as well as resolve the clinical manifestations of TB lymphadenopathy.

Prevalence and Predictors of Nocturia in Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (폐쇄성수면무호흡증 환자의 야간뇨 유병률 및 관련인자)

  • Kang, Hyeon Hui;Lee, Jongmin;Lee, Sang Haak;Moon, Hwa Sik
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: Several studies suggest that nocturia may be related to obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). The mechanism by which OSAS develops nocturia has not been determined. The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of nocturia among adults with OSAS and to identify factors that may be predictive in this regard. Methods: Retrospective review of clinical and polysomnographic data obtained from patients evaluated at the sleep clinics of the St. Paul's Hospital between 2009 and 2012. The urinary symptoms were assessed on the basis of the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). Pathologic nocturia was defined as two or more urination events per night. OSAS was defined as apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ${\geq}5$. A multivariate analysis using logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between polysomnographic variables and the presence of pathologic nocturia, while controlling for confounding factor. Results: A total of 161 men >18 years of age (mean age $46.7{\pm}14.1$), who had been referred to a sleep laboratory, were included in the present study. Among these, 27 patients with primary snoring and 134 patients with obstructive sleep apnea were confirmed by polysomnography. Nocturia was found in 53 patients with OSAS (39.6%) and 8 patients with primary snoring (29.6%). The AHI was higher in patients with nocturia than in those without nocturia (p=0.001). OSAS patients with nocturia had higher arousal index (p=0.044), and lower nadir oxyhemoglobin saturation (p=0.001). Multiple regression analysis showed that age (${\beta}$=0.227, p=0.003), and AHI (${\beta}$=0.258, p=0.001) were associated with nocturia, and that the presence of pathologic nocturia was predicted by age (OR 1.04 ; p=0.004) and AHI (OR 1.02 ; p=0.001). Conclusion: Nocturia is common among patients with OSAS. The strongest predictors of nocturia are age and AHI in patients with OSAS.

Analysis of Treatment Failures in Early Uterine Cervical Cancer (조기 자궁경부 악성종양의 치료실패에 대한 분석)

  • Kim Joo-Young;Lee Kyu-Chan;Choi Hyung-Sun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 1991
  • One hundred and twenty six patients with early uterine cervical cancer who had been treated at Departmen of Radiation Oncology of Korea University Hospital from Jan.1981 to Dec.1988 were analysed retrospectively by the treatment result and pattern of of failures. All patients had stage Ia to IIa disease and were grouped whether they had combination of operation and postop irradiation or radiation therapy alone. 1) Sixty six patients belonged to the combination treatment group and 60 patients to the radiation alone group. 2) Combination group consisted of $18.1\%$(12/66) stage Ia, $71.2\%$(47/66) stage Ib and $10.6\%$ (7/66) stage IIa patients. There were no stage Ia, 18.8$\%$(l1/60) stage Ib and 81.6$\%$(49/60) stage IIa patients for RT alone gronp. 3) There were total 23$\%$(29/126) treatment failures,13 patients in combination group and 16 patients in RT alone group. In 66 patients of combination group, they were found to have 5 locoregional failures, 7 distant failures and 1 at both sites. In 60 patients of RT alone group, 9 locoreginal failure and 7 distant failures occured. Eighty six percent (25/29) of total failures appeared within 18 month after completion of treatment. About 60$\%$ of the patients with regional recurrences which were located at pelvic side wall or pelvic lymph nodes paesented their recurrent disease after 1 year of completion of treatment, whereas same percent of distant failures appeared within 6 month. 5) In RT alone group, the first sites of distant failure were mostly para-aortic lymph node and/or left supraclavicular lymph node (71.4$\%$,5/7). In combination group, various sites such as inguinal lymph node, mediastinal lymph node, liver, lung and bone appeared first or at the same time with para-aortic and supraclavicular lymph node metastasis. 6) Logistic regression analysis was done for multivariate analysis of the factors contributing to locoregional and distant failures. In combination group, adequacy of the resection margin and the presence of positive pelvic node were found to be the most significant factors (p=0.0423 & 0.0060 respectively). In RT alone group, less than complete regression of the tumor at the end of treatment was the only significant contributing factor for the treatment failures (p=0.0013) with good liklihood ratio.

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The effect of restricted fluid intakes in the first week of life on the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia and patent ductus arteriosus in very low birth weight infants (극소저출생체중아에서 생후 첫 주의 제한적 수액투여가 기관지폐이형성증과 동맥관개존증 발생에 미치는 영향)

  • Koo, Hoe Kyoung;Choi, Eun Na;Namgung, Ran;Park, Min Soo;Park, Kook In;Lee, Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.536-542
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : We investigated the effects of restricted fluid in the first 7 days of life on the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) or patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Methods : Eighty three VLBW infants who lived more than 28 days were selected. The amount of daily maintenance fluid was determined by calculation of insensible water loss (IWL) and urine output (UO). Seventy to 80 percent of calculated amount was given to the ventilated infants. Subjects were grouped into low (<25th%), moderate (25-75th%), and high (>75th%) fluid groups for the first 24 hours, 3 days and 7 days. Chi square tests analyzed proportions of subjects with or without morbidities across fluid groups. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of fluid intake on BPD or PDA, controlling for factors that are significantly associated with BPD or PDA by univariate analysis. Results : Rates of BPD and PDA were not significantly associated with fluid groups on each time period. The result was the same after controlling for factors that are significantly associated with BPD or PDA by univariate analysis. For the first 3 and 7 days, fluid intakes were positively related with maximal weight loss, urine output and mechanical ventilation duration. Conclusion : In VLBW infants, when given based on needs reflected from IWL and UO versus intake, relatively low fluid intakes in the first week of life do not decrease the risk of BPD or PDA, and vice versa. We suggest that calculation of daily fluid based on IWL and UO is appropriate for VLBW infants.