• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.283-294
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• 2003

Introduction : Rapidly growing nontuberculous mycobacteria (RGM) can produce numerous types of manifestations including a pulmonary infection. Managing a pulmonary infection due to RGM is unusually difficult to treat because the organism is invariably resistant to traditional antituberculous drugs and has a varying susceptibility to other antibiotics. The experiences of treatments for a RGM pulmonary infection with various antibiotics are also limited. This study evaluated the clinical manifestations, treatment, and the therapeutic outcomes of a RGM pulmonary infection. Subjects and method : Fifty-four cases with RGM from respiratory specimens were identified between November of 1996 and September of 2002 in the Asan medical center. The medical records and radiographic findings in 20 patients who fulfilled the diagnostic criteria of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) pulmonary disease by ATS guidelines. The clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters between subgroups. Results : Of the 20 patients, 15 were female. The mean age was 57.7 yrs (${\pm}7.5$), and all of the patients had a history of pulmonary tuberculosis. Most (90%) had an underlying lung disease. The majority of the isolates (80%) were M. abscessus. Chest radiography showed bilateral involvement in 80% of the patients. Bronchiectasis and multiple nodules were the main findings. Cavitation was present in 35% of the patients. Even though 70 % of the patients received antituberculous drugs prior to the correct diagnosis, all of the patients eventually received antibiotics. A mean of 3.5 antibiotics were given for an average of 439 days(${\pm}168$). After completing treatment, nine patients showed improvement after a mean 591(${\pm}311$) days of treatment, whereas the antibiotic treatment was unsuccessful in 2 patients. Conclusion : Many patients with a RGM pulmonary infection show an atypical pattern of radiological findings (bronchiectasis and multiple centrilobular nodules). It is very important to differentiate between M. tuberculosis and NTM and to identify the causative organisms among the NTM because a misdiagnosis can lead to an inappropriate and prolonged treatment. Combined antibiotic treatment yielded promising results, and is recommended for treating patients with a RGM pulmonary infection.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.379-394
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• 1994

The purpose of this study was to identify the correlation between the factors influencing on housewives' decision-making processes of organic foods and the relating variables, and the 5 stages of decision-making processes of the EBK model is utilized in this study. The sample was selected from 411 housewives living in Seoul from 1st of September through 20th of September, 1993. Frequency, Percentage, Mean, Factor analysis, One-way ANOVA, Duncan's multiple range test, t-Test, Correlation, Multiple regression analysis and Path analysis were measured. Major results are as follows: 1. Purchasing motivation of the organic foods were in order of the health care, nutritive value and taste care. 2. The major informations source for the knowledge of organic foods were in order of TV/radio, newspaper/magazine, recommendations informations and advice through a family/friends/acquaintances. 3. Evalution criteria in shopping of organic foods, the total degree of consideration over the purchasing factors of organic foods was fairly high level: consumers thought much of the sanitation/freshness, nutritive value and the food safety. In this regard opinion leaders was dominantly mass media. Consumers have a tendency to purchase organic foods in consideration of their children and husband. 4. Major place to purchase organic foods are super markets and department stores. And When shopping organic foods, housewives by all means confirm the check points in their own mind, which were expiry date, manufactured date and packing condition, but unexpectedly manufactured company was out of concern. 5. Housewives usually satisfy with decision after purchasing organic foods, while they were fairly unsatisfied with the price, quality, incomplete description for ingredients and manufactured date. 6. The variables influencing to the sincerity when selecting the most desired organic foods is how be cares about the natural freshness of the foods and the types of residents in order. Another interesting tendency is the richer they are very considerate to decide. It is to say the people who cares more about the natural freshness is the sincerer when making decision and also the class who lives in the apartment house enjoying high income do not easily accept the product quality.

• Journal of Trauma and Injury
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.57-64
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• 2007

Purpose: Clinically, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) occurs within 72 hours after acute exposure of risk factors. Because of its high fatality rate once ARDS progresses, early detection and management are essential to reduce the mortality rate. Accordingly, studies on early changes of ARDS were started, and serum ferritin, as well the as injury severity score (ISS), which has been addressed in previous studies, thought to be an early predictive indicator for ARDSMethods: From March 2003 to March 2005, we investigated 50 trauma patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit in Dongguk University Medical Center, Gyeongju. The patients were characterized according to age, sex, ISS, onset of ARDS, time onset of ARDS, serum ferritin level (posttraumatic $1^{st}\;&\;2^{nd}$ day), amount of transfused blood, and death. Abdominal computed topography was performed as an early diagnostic tool to evaluate the onset of ARDS according to its diagnostic criteria. The serum ferritin was measured by using a $VIDAS^{(R)}$ Ferritin (bioMeriux, Marcy-1' Etoile, France) kit with an enzyme-linked fluorescent assay method. For statistical analysis, Windows SPSS 13.0 and MedCalc were used to confirm the probability of obtaining a predictive measure from the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results: The ISS varied from 14 to 66 (mean: 33.8) whereas the onset of ARDS could be predicted with the score above 30 (sensitivity: 90.0%, specificity: 60.0%, p<0.05). On the posttraumatic $1^{st}$ day, the serum ferritin levels were measured to be from 31 mg/dL to 1,200 mg/dL (mean: 456 mg/dL), and the onset of ARDS could be predicted when the value was over 340 mg/dL (sensitivity: 80.0%, specificity: 65.0%, p<0.05). On the posttraumatic $2^{nd}$ day, the serum ferritin levels were measured to be from 73 mg/dL to 1,200 mg/dL (mean: 404 mg/dL), and the onset of ARDS could be predicted when the value was over 627 mg/dL (sensitivity: 60.0%, specificity: 92.5%, p<0.05). The serum ferritin levels and the ISS were significantly higher on the posttraumatic $1^{st}$ and $2^{nd}$ day in the ARDS group, suggesting that they are suitable indices predicting the onset of ARDS, however relationship between the serum ferritin levels and the ISS was not statistically significant. Conclusion: In this study, we discovered increasing serum ferritin levels in multiple- trauma patients on the posttraumatic $1^{st}$ & $2^{nd}$ day and concluded that both the serum ferritin level and the ISS were good predictors of ARDS. Although they do not show statistically significant relationship to each other, they can be used as independent predictive measures for ARDS. Since ARDS causes high mortality, further studies, including the types of surgery and the methods of anesthesia on a large number of patients are essential to predict the chance of ARDS earlier and to reduce the incidence of death.

• The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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• v.59 no.4
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• pp.487-496
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• 2021

Full mouth rehabilitation is re-organizing the occlusion of the remaining teeth and missing teeth considering the functions, esthetics, and neuromuscular harmony. With the loss of multiple teeth, the patient's occlusal plane gradually collapses and the vertical dimension can be reduced. Since reduced vertical dimension can be a potential etiology of the temporomandibular joint and masticatory muscles, prosthetic restoration with increased vertical dimension is required. This case report is about a 68 years old patient with vertical dimension loss due to worn dentition and multiple loss of teeth. In this case, the loss of vertical dimension is assessed carefully using the digital dentistry technology. Using CAD software in digital analysis step, the occlusal plane was established and evaluated using several criteria. Orienting the position of the bone and teeth using CBCT image, patient's condition was visualized in 3 dimension and treatment planning was possible virtually. The information that matches the patient's condylar position with the articulator, which is the virtual face bow, is reproduced on the actual articulator, and evaluated again. After the evaluation, provisional prosthesis was fabricated and it was confirmed that the patient adapts without any abnormality. This was implemented as a final prosthesis. As a result, the patient obtained satisfying results, utilizing the benefits of digital dentistry technology and traditional methods.

• Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.35-41
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• 2019

Objectives : Although delirium is a common complication among patients hospitalized in intensive care units(ICUs), little is known about the roles that diagnostic and therapeutic procedures play in its development. This study investigates the procedure-related risk factors of delirium in ICU patients. Methods : All the consecutive patients admitted to the ICU between June 2016 and May 2017 were routinely evaluated for delirium by psychiatrists. In total, 1156 patients met the inclusion criteria and were retrospectively analyzed. A multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate independent risk factors of delirium development while adjusting for other characteristics. Results : The age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, proportion of patients who had undergone an operation, and proportion of patients who were foley catheterized, mechanically ventilated, and physically restrained were higher in the delirium group. The multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed that the use of restraint was an independent risk factor of delirium (odds ratio : 10.006 ; 95% confidence interval : 6.120-16.360 ; p<0.001). The patient factors independently associated with delirium were an advanced age and a higher APACHE II score. The incidence of delirium was 15.3%. Conclusions : There is a high prevalence of delirium influenced by potentially harmful procedures in patients in ICU settings. The use of physical restraint had the strongest association with the development of delirium. These findings advocate the need to target procedure-related risk factors such as the use of restraints as preventive intervention measures for ICU delirium.

• Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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• v.12 no.5_spc
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• pp.45-79
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• 2006

The purpose of this paper was to review the results of the subjective well-being(swb) studies performed by Hahn and coworkers in Korean culture. As the correlates of swb, we dealt with demographic/individual difference variables, intrapersonal variables, interpersonal process variables, and Korean cultural variables. We proposed that the components of swb were consisted of quality of life(cognitive swb) and overall happy feelings about one's own life(emotional swb). It was also assumed that a measure of total swb could be calculated by summated mean of cognitive swb and emotional swb measures. The data of the swb studies were analyzed and interpreted according to the above three measures of swb. The results of a nationwide survey(Hahn, 2004) from age of 19 to 75 years ald(n=2,230) showed significant simple correlation coefficients between the following demographic/individual difference variables and swb: Gender difference in swb was found(total swb r=.08, p<.001; life satisfaction r=.10, p<.001; overall emotional swb r=.05, p<.05). Men were happier than women in terms of all three measures of swb. It was also found that women appeared to experience greater positive and negative emotions. Correlation between age and emotional swb(r=.09, p<.001) was significant, but life satisfaction was not significant(r=.04, n.s). Correlations between economic status and swb were also significant(total swb r =.23, p<.001; life satisfaction r=.15 p<.001; overall emotional swb r=.15, p<.001l). Although existence of father was negatively related to emotional swb(r=-.05, p<.05), the existence of mother was not related to any of swb measures. Similarly existence of brothers was related positively to overall emotional swb, but existence of sisters was not. Though existence of son was not related to swb, daughter contributed negatively to swb(total swb -.12, p<.01; life satisfaction -.09, p<.05; emotional swb r=-.12, p<.01). We assumed that family member-in-Iaw also contributed to swb because the extended dose social networks were important in Korean culture. The results showed that the following family member-in-law variables were related to swb: Parents-in-law(total swb r=.11, p<.01; life satisfaction r=.10, p<.01; emotional swb r=.10, p<.01), father-in-law(total swb r=.11, p<.01; life satisfaction r=.11, p<.01; emotional swb r=.06, n.s). The result suggested that especially father-in-law contributed to swb through financial and social support. Correlations between emotional experiences in everyday life and swb were also presented. The range of correlation coefficients between the positive emotion measures and swb were r=.30~.48(p<.001) when the above two measures obtained at same time. But the range decreased to r=.19~32(p<.001) when the swb measure was obtained 9 month later longitudinally. Intercorrelations between positive emotional experience; and life satisfaction were r=.37~58(p<.001) when two measures were obtained at same time. We also examined the effects of the intrapersonal cognitive responses to the most stressful life event upon swb. The results of nationwide survey(n=1,021) showed that self-disclosure(total swb r=.09, p<.010; life satisfaction r=.10, p<.01; emotional swb r=.07, p<.01), rumination(total swb r=-.17, p<.001), thought avoidance(total swb r=.12, p<.001; life satisfaction r=-.08; emotional swb r=-.12, p<.001) and suppression(total swb r=-.13, p<.001; life satisfaction r=-.08, p<.05: emotional swb r=-.13, p<.001) contributed to swb. It was also suggested that mismatch between self-guide and regulatory focus contributed negatively to emotional swb. It was also found that social comparison motives and fulfillment of the motives contributed to swb. The results of a survey research(n=363 college students) revealed that the higher the general social comparison motive, the lower the swb(total swb r=-.15, P<.01: life satisfaction r=-.17. p<.01; emotional swb r=-.10, p<.05). It was also found that satisfaction level of self-evalution motive contributed positively to swb(total swb r=-.14. p<.01: life satisfaction r=-.12, p<.05; emotional swb r=.15, p<.001). Both of self-improvement motive(r=.13, p<.05) and satisfaction level of self-improvement motive(r=.12, p<.05) contributed positively to emotional swb, respectively. The above results suggested that swb was depended upon the interaction effect of social comparison motive; and level of fulfillment of the motives. We also reported the significant multiple predictors of swb in a sample of age from 60years to 89years olds. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that the significant multiple predictors of swb were past illness(β=.174, p<.001), economic status(β=.418, p<.001), marital satisfaction(β=.0841, p<.001), satisfaction of offsprins(β=.065, p<.01), expectation level of social support from offsprings(β=-.049, p<.001), and negative emotions(β=-.454. p<.001) among 16 social psychological factors. It was also found that swb was an important multiple predictors of physical health. This finding was replicated in a longitudinal study. Both of positive and negative emotional experiences were significant multiple predictors of physical health one year later. The results of the discriminant analysis showed both of total swb and positive emotional experiences contributed to discriminate the happy and healthy olds from unhappy and unhealthy olds. We paper also examined the effects of the nonnative social behaviors upon swb in Korean culture. The main hypotheses of the study(Hahn, 2006, in press) was that the important nonnative behaviors would influence on swb through both of the mediation processes of adjustment to social relationships and psychological stress. The survey data were collected from 2,129 adults age of 19 to 75, from 7 regional areas in Korea. The results of the study revealed that almost all of correlation coefficients between 15 normative social behaviors and the above three criteria w-ere significant. The fitness test results of the covariance structural equation model showed that all of the fitness indices were satisfactory (GFI=.974, AGFI=.909, NNFI=.922, NFI=.973, CFI=.974. RMR=.049, RMSEA=.073). The results of the analysis revealed that the following five path coeffi6ents from behaviors to social adjustment were significant; behavior tor family and family members(t=5.87, p<.001), courteous behavior(t=4.39, p<.001), faithful behavior (t=2.15. p<.05). collectivistic behavior(t=8.31, p<.001). Seven path coefficients from the normative behaviors to psychological stress were significant; behavior for family and family members (t=-4.63, p<.001), faithful behavior(t=-3.86, p<.001). suppression of emotional expression(t=3.99, p<.001), trustworthy and dependable behavior(t=-2.21, p<.05), collectivistic behavior(t=3.72, p<.001), effortful and diligent behavior(t=2.94, p<.001), husbandry and saving behavior(t=3.40, p<.001). The above results suggested that four normative behaviors among seven behaviors contributed negatively to psychological stress in current Korean society. The results abo confirmed the hypothesized paths from social adjustment (t=10.40, p<.001) to swb and from psychological stress(t=-19.74, p<.001) to swb. The important results of the study were discussed in terms of the Confucian traditions and recent social changes in Korean culture. Finally limitations of this review paper were discussed and the suggestions for the future study were also proposed.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.48-59
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• 1999

Objectives. This study was conducted to evaluate the association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment(RULA) in vehicle assembly line workers. The goal of this study is to show the feasibility of RULA as a checklist for work related musculoskeletal symptoms (WMSDs) in Korean workers. Methods. The total number of 199 people from the department of assembly and 115 people from the department of Quality Control(QC) in automotive plant were subjects for this cross sectional study. A standard symptom questionnaire survey has been used for the individual characteristics, work history, musculosketal symptoms and non-occupational covariates. The data were obtained by applying one-on-one interview for the all subjects. RULA has been applied for ergonomic work posture analysis and the primary ergonomic risk sure was computed by RULA method. Association between upper extremity musculoskeletal symptoms and RULA were assessed by multiple logistic regression analysis. Results. A total of 314 workers was examined. The prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms by NIOSH case definition was 62.4%. The distribution of musculoskeletal symptoms by the part of the body turned out to be following; back:41.4%, neck: 32.8%, shoulder: 26.4%, arm: 10.5% and hand:29.3%. The relationship of the individual RULA scores were statistically significant for the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms. As the result of the multiple logistic regressioin analysis, grand final score (OR=2.250 95% CI: 1.402-3.612) was associated with musculoskeletal symptoms in any part of the body.; upper arm score(OR=1.786 95% CI: 1.036-3.079) and posture score A(OR=1.634 95% CI: 1.016-2.626) in neck; muscel use score(OR=3.076 95% CI:1.782-5.310) and posture score A(OR=1.798 95% CI: 1.072-3.017) in shoulder; upper arm score(OR=1.715 95% CI: 1.083-2.715) and muscel use score(OR=2.057 95% CI:1.303-3.248) in neck & shoulder; muscle use score(OR=10.662 95% CI: 3.180-35.742) in arm; writst/wist score(OR=2.068 95% CI: 1.130-3.786) and muscle use score(OR=2.215 95% CI: 1.284-3.819) in hand & wrist.; muscle use score of trunk (OR=2.601 95% CI: 1.147-5.901) in back. Conclusions. Musculoskeletal symptoms of the extremities were strongly associated with individual RULA body score. These results show that RULA can be used as a useful assessment tool for the evaluation of musculoskeletal loading which is known to contribute to work-related musculoskeletal disorders. RULA also can be used as a screening tool or incorporated into a wider ergonomic assessment of epidemiological, physical, mental, environmental and organizational factors. As shown in this study, complement of the analysis system for the other risk factors and characterizing between the upper limb and back part will be needed for future work.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.37-63
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• 2012

In franchise business, exclusive sales territory (sometimes EST in table) protection is a very important issue from an economic, social and political point of view. It affects the growth and survival of both franchisor and franchisee and often raises issues of social and political conflicts. When franchisee is not familiar with related laws and regulations, franchisor has high chance to utilize it. Exclusive sales territory protection by the manufacturer and distributors (wholesalers or retailers) means sales area restriction by which only certain distributors have right to sell products or services. The distributor, who has been granted exclusive sales territories, can protect its own territory, whereas he may be prohibited from entering in other regions. Even though exclusive sales territory is a quite critical problem in franchise business, there is not much rigorous research about the reason, results, evaluation, and future direction based on empirical data. This paper tries to address this problem not only from logical and nomological validity, but from empirical validation. While we purse an empirical analysis, we take into account the difficulties of real data collection and statistical analysis techniques. We use a set of disclosure document data collected by Korea Fair Trade Commission, instead of conventional survey method which is usually criticized for its measurement error. Existing theories about exclusive sales territory can be summarized into two groups as shown in the table below. The first one is about the effectiveness of exclusive sales territory from both franchisor and franchisee point of view. In fact, output of exclusive sales territory can be positive for franchisors but negative for franchisees. Also, it can be positive in terms of sales but negative in terms of profit. Therefore, variables and viewpoints should be set properly. The other one is about the motive or reason why exclusive sales territory is protected. The reasons can be classified into four groups - industry characteristics, franchise systems characteristics, capability to maintain exclusive sales territory, and strategic decision. Within four groups of reasons, there are more specific variables and theories as below. Based on these theories, we develop nine hypotheses which are briefly shown in the last table below with the results. In order to validate the hypothesis, data is collected from government (FTC) homepage which is open source. The sample consists of 1,896 franchisors and it contains about three year operation data, from 2006 to 2008. Within the samples, 627 have exclusive sales territory protection policy and the one with exclusive sales territory policy is not evenly distributed over 19 representative industries. Additional data are also collected from another government agency homepage, like Statistics Korea. Also, we combine data from various secondary sources to create meaningful variables as shown in the table below. All variables are dichotomized by mean or median split if they are not inherently dichotomized by its definition, since each hypothesis is composed by multiple variables and there is no solid statistical technique to incorporate all these conditions to test the hypotheses. This paper uses a simple chi-square test because hypotheses and theories are built upon quite specific conditions such as industry type, economic condition, company history and various strategic purposes. It is almost impossible to find all those samples to satisfy them and it can't be manipulated in experimental settings. However, more advanced statistical techniques are very good on clean data without exogenous variables, but not good with real complex data. The chi-square test is applied in a way that samples are grouped into four with two criteria, whether they use exclusive sales territory protection or not, and whether they satisfy conditions of each hypothesis. So the proportion of sample franchisors which satisfy conditions and protect exclusive sales territory, does significantly exceed the proportion of samples that satisfy condition and do not protect. In fact, chi-square test is equivalent with the Poisson regression which allows more flexible application. As results, only three hypotheses are accepted. When attitude toward the risk is high so loyalty fee is determined according to sales performance, EST protection makes poor results as expected. And when franchisor protects EST in order to recruit franchisee easily, EST protection makes better results. Also, when EST protection is to improve the efficiency of franchise system as a whole, it shows better performances. High efficiency is achieved as EST prohibits the free riding of franchisee who exploits other's marketing efforts, and it encourages proper investments and distributes franchisee into multiple regions evenly. Other hypotheses are not supported in the results of significance testing. Exclusive sales territory should be protected from proper motives and administered for mutual benefits. Legal restrictions driven by the government agency like FTC could be misused and cause mis-understandings. So there need more careful monitoring on real practices and more rigorous studies by both academicians and practitioners.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.313-327
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• 2013

In the study, three-dimensional geostatistical simulations on McMurray Formation which is the largest oil sand reservoir in Athabasca area, Canada were performed, and the optimal site for steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) was selected based on the predictions. In the selection, the factors related to the vertical extendibility of steam chamber were considered as the criteria for an optimal site. For the predictions, 110 borehole data acquired from the study area were analyzed in the Markovian transition probability (TP) framework and three-dimensional distributions of the composing media were predicted stochastically through an existing TP based geostatistical model. The potential of a specific medium at a position within the prediction domain was estimated from the ensemble probability based on the multiple realizations. From the ensemble map, the cumulative thickness of the permeable media (i.e. Breccia and Sand) was analyzed and the locations with the highest potential for SAGD applications were delineated. As a supportive criterion for an optimal SAGD site, mean vertical extension of a unit permeable media was also delineated through transition rate based computations. The mean vertical extension of a permeable media show rough agreement with the cumulative thickness in their general distribution. However, the distributions show distinctive disagreement at a few locations where the cumulative thickness was higher due to highly alternating juxtaposition of the permeable and the less permeable media. This observation implies that the cumulative thickness alone may not be a sufficient criterion for an optimal SAGD site and the mean vertical extension of the permeable media needs to be jointly considered for the sound selections.