• Title/Summary/Keyword: multiple change-points

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An empirical evidence of inconsistency of the ℓ1 trend filtering in change point detection (1 추세필터의 변화점 식별에 있어서의 비일치성)

  • Yu, Donghyeon;Lim, Johan;Son, Won
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.371-384
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    • 2022
  • The fused LASSO signal approximator (FLSA) can be applied to find change points from the data having piecewise constant mean structure. It is well-known that the FLSA is inconsistent in change points detection. This inconsistency is due to a total-variation denoising penalty of the FLSA. ℓ1 trend filter, one of the popular tools for finding an underlying trend from data, can be used to identify change points of piecewise linear trends. Since the ℓ1 trend filter applies the sum of absolute values of slope differences, it can be inconsistent for change points recovery as the FLSA. However, there are few studies on the inconsistency of the ℓ1 trend filtering. In this paper, we demonstrate the inconsistency of the ℓ1 trend filtering with a numerical study.

Comparative analysis of Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators in change point problems with Poisson process

  • Kitabo, Cheru Atsmegiorgis;Kim, Jong Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.261-269
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    • 2015
  • Nowadays the application of change point analysis has been indispensable in a wide range of areas such as quality control, finance, environmetrics, medicine, geographics, and engineering. Identification of times where process changes would help minimize the consequences that might happen afterwards. The main objective of this paper is to compare the change-point detection capabilities of Bayesian estimate and maximum likelihood estimate. We applied Bayesian and maximum likelihood techniques to formulate change points having a step change and multiple number of change points in a Poisson rate. After a signal from c-chart and Poisson cumulative sum control charts have been detected, Monte Carlo simulation has been applied to investigate the performance of Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation. Change point detection capacities of Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation techniques have been investigated through simulation. It has been found that the Bayesian estimates outperforms standard control charts well specially when there exists a small to medium size of step change. Moreover, it performs convincingly well in comparison with the maximum like-lihood estimator and remains good choice specially in confidence interval statistical inference.

Shot Change Detection Using Multiple Features and Binary Decision Tree (다수의 특징과 이진 분류 트리를 이용한 장면 전환 검출)

  • 홍승범;백중환
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.28 no.5C
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    • pp.514-522
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    • 2003
  • Contrary to the previous methods, in this paper, we propose an enhanced shot change detection method using multiple features and binary decision tree. The previous methods usually used single feature and fixed threshold between consecutive frames. However, contents such as color, shape, background, and texture change simultaneously at shot change points in a video sequence. Therefore, in this paper, we detect the shot changes effectively using multiple features, which are supplementary each other, rather than using single feature. In order to classify the shot changes, we use binary classification tree. According to this classification result, we extract important features among the multiple features and obtain threshold value for each feature. We also perform the cross-validation and droop-case to verify the performance of our method. From an experimental result, it was revealed that the EI of our method performed average of 2% better than that of the conventional shot change detection methods.

Bayesian Analysis for Multiple Change-point hazard Rate Models

  • Jeong, Kwangmo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.801-812
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    • 1999
  • Change-point hazard rate models arise for example in applying "burn-in" techniques to screen defective items and in studing times until undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. Sometimes in screening defectives it might be sensible to model two stages of burn-in. In a clinical trial there might be an initial hazard rate for a side effect which after a period of time changes to an intermediate hazard rate before settling into a long term hazard rate. In this paper we consider the multiple change points hazard rate model. The classical approach's asymptotics can be poor for the small to all moderate sample sizes often encountered in practice. We propose a Bayesian approach avoiding asymptotics to provide more reliable inference conditional only upon the data actually observed. The Bayesian models can be fitted using simulation methods. Model comparison is made using recently developed Bayesian model selection criteria. The above methodology is applied to a generated data and to a generated data and the Lawless(1982) failure times of electrical insulation.

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Time Series Models for Daily Exchange Rate Data (일별 환율데이터에 대한 시계열 모형 적합 및 비교분석)

  • Kim, Bomi;Kim, Jaehee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2013
  • ARIMA and ARIMA+IGARCH models are fitted and compared for daily Korean won/US dollar exchange rate data over 17 years. A linear structural change model and an autoregressive structural change model are fitted for multiple change-point estimation since there seems to be structural change with this data.

Bayesian Inference for Switching Mean Models with ARMA Errors

  • Son, Young Sook;Kim, Seong W.;Cho, Sinsup
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.981-996
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    • 2003
  • Bayesian inference is considered for switching mean models with the ARMA errors. We use noninformative improper priors or uniform priors. The fractional Bayes factor of O'Hagan (1995) is used as the Bayesian tool for detecting the existence of a single change or multiple changes and the usual Bayes factor is used for identifying the orders of the ARMA error. Once the model is fully identified, the Gibbs sampler with the Metropolis-Hastings subchains is constructed to estimate parameters. Finally, we perform a simulation study to support theoretical results.

On study for change point regression problems using a difference-based regression model

  • Park, Jong Suk;Park, Chun Gun;Lee, Kyeong Eun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.539-556
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    • 2019
  • This paper derive a method to solve change point regression problems via a process for obtaining consequential results using properties of a difference-based intercept estimator first introduced by Park and Kim (Communications in Statistics - Theory Methods, 2019) for outlier detection in multiple linear regression models. We describe the statistical properties of the difference-based regression model in a piecewise simple linear regression model and then propose an efficient algorithm for change point detection. We illustrate the merits of our proposed method in the light of comparison with several existing methods under simulation studies and real data analysis. This methodology is quite valuable, "no matter what regression lines" and "no matter what the number of change points".

Bayesian Change-point Model for ARCH

  • Nam, Seung-Min;Kim, Ju-Won;Cho, Sin-Sup
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.491-501
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    • 2006
  • We consider a multiple change point model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The model assumes that all or the part of the parameters in the ARCH equation change over time. The occurrence of the change points is modelled as the discrete time Markov process with unknown transition probabilities. The model is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on the approach of Chib (1998). Simulation is performed using a variant of perfect sampling algorithm to achieve the accuracy and efficiency. We apply the proposed model to the simulated data for verifying the usefulness of the model.

Lane Detection-based Camera Pose Estimation (차선검출 기반 카메라 포즈 추정)

  • Jung, Ho Gi;Suhr, Jae Kyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.463-470
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    • 2015
  • When a camera installed on a vehicle is used, estimation of the camera pose including tilt, roll, and pan angle with respect to the world coordinate system is important to associate camera coordinates with world coordinates. Previous approaches using huge calibration patterns have the disadvantage that the calibration patterns are costly to make and install. And, previous approaches exploiting multiple vanishing points detected in a single image are not suitable for automotive applications as a scene where multiple vanishing points can be captured by a front camera is hard to find in our daily environment. This paper proposes a camera pose estimation method. It collects multiple images of lane markings while changing the horizontal angle with respect to the markings. One vanishing point, the cross point of the left and right lane marking, is detected in each image, and vanishing line is estimated based on the detected vanishing points. Finally, camera pose is estimated from the vanishing line. The proposed method is based on the fact that planar motion does not change the vanishing line of the plane and the normal vector of the plane can be estimated by the vanishing line. Experiments with large and small tilt and roll angle show that the proposed method outputs accurate estimation results respectively. It is verified by checking the lane markings are up right in the bird's eye view image when the pan angle is compensated.

Vibration analysis of carbon nanotubes with multiple cracks in thermal environment

  • Ebrahimi, Farzad;Mahmoodi, Fatemeh
    • Advances in nano research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.57-80
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the thermal loading effect on free vibration characteristics of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with multiple cracks is studied. Various boundary conditions for nanotube are taken in to account. In order to take the small scale effect, the nonlocal elasticity of Eringen is employed in the framework of Euler-Bernoulli beam theory. This theory states that the stress at a reference point is a function of strains at all points in the continuum. A cracked nanotube is assumed to be consisted of two segments that are connected by a rotational spring which is located in the position of the cracked section. Hamilton's principle is used to achieve the governing equations. Influences of the nonlocal parameter, crack severity, temperature change and the number of cracks on the system frequencies are investigated. Also, it is found that at room or lower temperature the natural frequency for CNT decreases as the value of temperature change increases, while at temperature higher than room temperature the natural frequency of CNT increases as the value of temperature change increases. Various boundary conditions have been applied to the nanotube.