• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.455-464
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• 2012

This study investigates a 12 month-lead predictability of PNU Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) V1.1 hindcast, for which an oceanic data assimilated initialization is used to generate ocean initial condition. The CGCM, a participant model of APEC Climate Center (APCC) long-lead multi-model ensemble system, has been initialized at each and every month and performed 12-month-lead hindcast for each month during 1980 to 2011. The 12-month-lead hindcast consisted of 2-5 ensembles and this study verified the ensemble averaged hindcast. As for the sea-surface temperature concerns, it remained high level of confidence especially over the tropical Pacific and the mid-latitude central Pacific with slight declining of temporal correlation coefficients (TCC) as lead month increased. The CGCM revealed trustworthy ENSO prediction skills in most of hindcasts, in particular. For atmospheric variables, like air temperature, precipitation, and geopotential height at 500hPa, reliable prediction results have been shown during entire lead time in most of domain, particularly over the equatorial region. Though the TCCs of hindcasted precipitation are lower than other variables, a skillful precipitation forecasts is also shown over highly variable regions such as ITCZ. This study also revealed that there are seasonal and regional dependencies on predictability for each variable and lead.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.74-99
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• 2022

Surface ozone is produced by photochemical reactions of nitrogen oxides(NOx) and volatile organic compounds(VOCs) emitted from vehicles and industrial sites, adversely affecting vegetation and the human body. In South Korea, ozone is monitored in real-time at stations(i.e., point measurements), but it is difficult to monitor and analyze its continuous spatial distribution. In this study, surface ozone concentrations were interpolated to have a spatial resolution of 1.5km every hour using the stacking ensemble technique, followed by a 5-fold cross-validation. Base models for the stacking ensemble were cokriging, multi-linear regression(MLR), random forest(RF), and support vector regression(SVR), while MLR was used as the meta model, having all base model results as additional input variables. The results showed that the stacking ensemble model yielded the better performance than the individual base models, resulting in an averaged R of 0.76 and RMSE of 0.0065ppm during the study period of 2020. The surface ozone concentration distribution generated by the stacking ensemble model had a wider range with a spatial pattern similar with terrain and urbanization variables, compared to those by the base models. Not only should the proposed model be capable of producing the hourly spatial distribution of ozone, but it should also be highly applicable for calculating the daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentrations.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.4181-4194
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• 2022

Main steam safety valves are commonly used in nuclear power plants to provide final protections from overpressure events. Blowdown and dynamic stability are two critical characteristics of safety valves. However, due to the parameter sensitivity and multi-parameter features of safety valves, using traditional method to design and/or optimize them is generally difficult and/or inefficient. To overcome these problems, a surrogate model-based valve design optimization is carried out in this study, of particular interest are methods of valve surrogate modeling, valve parameters global sensitivity analysis and valve performance optimization. To construct the surrogate model, Design of Experiments (DoE) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of the safety valve were performed successively, thereby an ensemble surrogate model (E-AHF) was built for valve blowdown and stability predictions. With the developed E-AHF model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the valve parameters was performed, thereby five primary parameters that affect valve performance were identified. Finally, the k-sigma method is used to conduct the robust optimization on the valve. After optimization, the valve remains stable, the minimum blowdown of the safety valve is reduced greatly from 13.30% to 2.70%, and the corresponding variance is reduced from 1.04 to 0.65 as well, confirming the feasibility and effectiveness of the optimization method proposed in this paper.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.327-340
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• 2015

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the basic tool used for modelling climate. However, the spatio-temporal discrepancy between GCM and observed value, therefore, the models deliver output that are generally required calibration for applied studies. Which is generally done by Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. Stochastic downscaling methods have been used extensively to generate long-term weather sequences from finite observed records. A primary objective of this study is to develop a forecasting scheme which is able to make use of a MME of different GCMs. This study employed a Nonstationary Hidden Markov Chain Model (NHMM) as a main tool for downscaling seasonal ensemble forecasts over 3 month period, providing daily forecasts. Our results showed that the proposed downscaling scheme can provide the skillful forecasts as inputs for hydrologic modeling, which in turn may improve water resources management. An application to the Nakdong watershed in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable information for water resources management.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.33-43
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• 2022

In this paper, we propose an ensemble model facilitated by multi-channel palm images with attention U-Net models and pretrained convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for establishing a contactless palm-based user identification system using conventional inexpensive camera sensors. Attention U-Net models are used to extract the areas of interest including hands (i.e., with fingers), palms (i.e., without fingers) and palm lines, which are combined to generate three channels being ped into the ensemble classifier. Then, the proposed palm information-based user identification system predicts the class using the classifier ensemble with three outperforming pre-trained CNN models. The proposed model demonstrates that the proposed model could achieve the classification accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score of 98.60%, 98.61%, 98.61%, 98.61% respectively, which indicate that the proposed model is effective even though we are using very cheap and inexpensive image sensors. We believe that in this COVID-19 pandemic circumstances, the proposed palm-based contactless user identification system can be an alternative, with high safety and reliability, compared with currently overwhelming contact-based systems.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.27-35
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• 2021

In this paper, we propose a new stacking ensemble framework for deep learning models which reflects the distribution of label embeddings. Our ensemble framework consists of two phases: training the baseline deep learning classifier, and training the sub-classifiers based on the clustering results of label embeddings. Our framework aims to divide a multi-class classification problem into small sub-problems based on the clustering results. The clustering is conducted on the label embeddings obtained from the weight of the last layer of the baseline classifier. After clustering, sub-classifiers are constructed to classify the sub-classes in each cluster. From the experimental results, we found that the label embeddings well reflect the relationships between classification labels, and our ensemble framework can improve the classification performance on a CIFAR 100 dataset.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.314-314
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• 2023

Extreme climate events can have a large impact on human life by hampering social, environmental, and economic development. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the widely used numerical models to understand the anticipated future climate change. However, different GCMs can project different future climates due to structural differences, varying initial boundary conditions and assumptions about the physical phenomena. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach can improve the uncertainties associated with the different GCM outcomes. In this study, a comprehensive rating metric was used to select the best-performing GCMs out of 11 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 GCMs, according to their skills in terms of four temporal and five spatial performance indices, in replicating the 21 extreme climate indices during the baseline (1975-2017) in South Korea. The MME data were derived by averaging the simulations from all selected GCMs and three top-ranked GCMs. The random forest (RF) algorithm was also used to derive the MME data from the three top-ranked GCMs. The RF-derived MME data of the three top-ranked GCMs showed the highest performance in simulating the baseline extreme climate which was subsequently used to project the future extreme climate indices under both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) and the socioeconomic concentration pathway scenarios (SSP). The extreme cold and warming indices had declining and increasing trends, respectively, and most extreme precipitation indices had increasing trends over the period 2031-2100. Compared to all scenarios, RCP8.5 showed drastic changes in future extreme climate indices. The coasts in the east, south and west had stronger warming than the rest of the country, while mountain areas in the north experienced more extreme cold. While extreme cold climatology gradually declined from north to south, extreme warming climatology continuously grew from coastal to inland and northern mountainous regions. The results showed that the socially, environmentally and agriculturally important regions of South Korea were at increased risk of facing the detrimental impacts of extreme climatology.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.653-666
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• 2011

The purposes of this study are to suggest flood vulnerability assessment method on climate change with evaluation of this method over the 5 river basins and to present the uncertainty range of assessment using multi-model ensemble scenarios. In this study, the data related to past historical flood events were collected and flood vulnerability index was calculated. The vulnerability assessment were also performed under current climate system. For future climate change scenario, the 39 climate scenarios are obtained from 3 different emission scenarios and 13 GCMs provided by IPCC DDC and 312 hydrology scenarios from 3 hydrological models and 2~3 potential evapotranspiration computation methods for the climate scenarios. Finally, the spatial and temporal changes of flood vulnerability and the range of uncertainty were performed for future S1 (2010~2039), S2 (2040~2069), S3 (2070~2099) period compared to reference S0 (1971~2000) period. The results of this study shows that vulnerable region's were Han and Sumjin, Youngsan river basins under current climate system. Considering the climate scenarios, variability in Nakdong, Gum and Han river basins are large, but Sumjin river basin had little variability due to low basic-stream ability to adaptation.

• Journal of Multimedia Information System
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.93-102
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• 2022

Dependency parsing is a decision problem of the syntactic relation between words in a sentence. Recently, deep learning models are used for dependency parsing based on the word representations in a continuous vector space. However, it causes a mislabeled tagging problem for the proper nouns that rarely appear in the training corpus because it is difficult to express out-of-vocabulary (OOV) words in a continuous vector space. To solve the OOV problem in dependency parsing, we explored the proper noun embedding method according to the embedding unit. Before representing words in a continuous vector space, we replace the proper nouns with a special token and train them for the contextual features by using the multi-layer bidirectional LSTM. Two models of the syllable-based and morpheme-based unit are proposed for proper noun embedding and the performance of the dependency parsing is more improved in the ensemble model than each syllable and morpheme embedding model. The experimental results showed that our ensemble model improved 1.69%p in UAS and 2.17%p in LAS than the same arc-eager approach-based Malt parser.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.101-109
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• 2004

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.