• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.611-611
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• 2015

One of the hazard of nature is a drought. Its impact varies from region to region and it is difficult for people to understand and define due to differences in hydrometeorological and social economic aspects across much of the country. In the most general sense, drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually month, season or more, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is well known and has been used to study aridity changes in modern and past climates. The PDSI index is estimated over US using USHCN historical data.(e.g. precipitation, temperature, latitude and soil moisture). In this study, low frequency drought variability associated with climate variability such as El-Nino and ENSO is mainly investigated. With respect to the multi-scale analysis, wavelet transform analysis is applied to the PDSI index in order to extract the low frequency band corresponding to 2-8 years. Finally, low frequency patterns associated with drought by comparing global wavelet power, with significance test are explored.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.1583-1600
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• 2015

When natural disasters occur, including earthquakes, tsunamis, and debris flows, they are often accompanied by various types of damages such as the collapse of buildings, broken bridges and roads, and the destruction of natural scenery. Natural disaster detection and warning is an important issue which could help to reduce the incidence of serious damage to life and property as well as provide information for search and rescue afterwards. In this study, we propose a novel computer vision technique for debris flow detection which is feature-based that can be used to construct a debris flow event warning system. The landscape is composed of various elements, including trees, rocks, and buildings which are characterized by their features, shapes, positions, and colors. Unlike the traditional methods, our analysis relies on changes in the natural scenery which influence changes to the features. The "background module" and "monitoring module" procedures are designed and used to detect debris flows and construct an event warning system. The multi-criteria decision-making method used to construct an event warring system includes gradient information and the percentage of variation of the features. To prove the feasibility of the proposed method for detecting debris flows, some real cases of debris flows are analyzed. The natural environment is simulated and an event warning system is constructed to warn of debris flows. Debris flows are successfully detected using these two procedures, by analyzing the variation in the detected features and the matched feature. The feasibility of the event warning system is proven using the simulation method. Therefore, the feature based method is found to be useful for detecting debris flows and the event warning system is triggered when debris flows occur.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.159-172
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• 2018

In many epidemiological studies, missing values in the outcome arise due to censoring. Such censoring is what makes survival analysis special and differentiated from other analytical methods. There are many methods that deal with censored data in survival analysis. However, few studies have dealt with missing covariates in survival data. Furthermore, studies dealing with missing covariates are rare when data are clustered. In this paper, we conducted a simulation study to compare results of several missing data methods when data had clustered multi-structured type with missing covariates. In this study, we modeled unknown baseline hazard and frailty with Bayesian B-Spline to obtain more smooth and accurate estimates. We also used prior information to achieve more accurate results. We assumed the missing mechanism as MAR. We compared the performance of five different missing data techniques and compared these results through simulation studies. We also presented results from a Multi-Center study of Korean IBD patients with Crohn's disease(Lee et al., Journal of the Korean Society of Coloproctology, 28, 188-194, 2012).

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.503-529
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• 2015

Traditionally, multi-story buildings are designed to provide stiffer structural support to withstand lateral earthquake loading. Introducing flexible elements at the base of a structure and providing sufficient damping is an alternative way to mitigate seismic hazards. These features can be achieved with a device known as an isolator. This paper covers the design of base isolators for multi-story buildings in medium-risk seismicity regions and evaluates the structural responses of such isolators. The well-known tower building for police personnel built in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the Public Works Department (PWD) has been used as a case study to justify the viability of incorporating base isolators. The objective of this research was to establish a simplified model of the building that can be effectively used for dynamic analysis, to evaluate the structural status, and to suggest an alternative option to handle the lateral seismic load. A finite element model was incorporated to understand the structural responses. Rubber-steel bearing (RSB) isolators such as Lead rubber bearing (LRB) and high damping rubber bearing (HDRB) were used in the model to insert an isolator link element in the structural base. The nonlinearities of rubber-steel bearings were considered in detail. Linear static, linear dynamic, and nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed for both fixed-based (FB) and base isolated (BI) buildings considering the earthquake accelerograms, histories, and response spectra of the geological sites. Both the time-domain and frequency-domain approaches were used for dynamic solutions. The results indicated that for existing multi-story buildings, RSB diminishes the muscular amount of structural response compared to conventional non-isolated structures. The device also allows for higher horizontal displacement and greater structural flexibility. The suggested isolation technique is able to mitigate the structural hazard under even strong earthquake vulnerability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.111-122
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• 2010

As the Jamsu-bridge and the floodplains of the Han River can be flooded during the rainy season, the exact prediction of the peak flood time is very important for mitigation of flood hazard. This study analyzes the effect of outflow of Paldang Dam and tide of Yellow Sea on the Han River. A target area is from the Paldang dam to Jeonryu gauging station. Water level of Jeonryu as a downstream boundary condition was estimated through multi linear regression analysis with outflow of Paldang dam and tide level of Incheon, because it was influenced by both a tide of Yellow Sea and outflow of Paldang dam. In this study, Water Level Rising Travel Time of the Jamsu-bridge and some floodplains in the Han River are estimated. Also, The second order polynomial expressions for relationships of outflow of Paldang Dam and Water Level Rising Travel Time were developed considering the outflow of Paldang dam and tide of Yellow Sea.

• Korean journal of aerospace and environmental medicine
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.113-129
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• 2020

With the operation of the KC-330 MRTT (Multi Role Tanker Transport), which had been fielded in 2019, the ROKAF (Republic of Korea Air Force) has given fighter pilots a new mission of air refueling. As a result, fighter pilots are more likely to be exposed to risks they have never faced before, and it is necessary to look at the risk factors associated with human factors in air refueling missions. Therefore, in this study, an analysis using the HFACS (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System) model was performed for fighter pilots with air refueling qualifications. This study tried to prevent hazard in advance by discriminating the risk factors according to the human factors related to the fighter pilot during the air refueling mission.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.13-24
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• 2019

The concept of shape similarity has been applied to verify the accuracy of the SIND model, the real-time prediction model for disaster risk. However, the CRITIC method, one of the most widely used in geometric methodology, is definitely limited to apply to complex shape such as hazard map for coastal disaster. Therefore, we suggested the modified CRITIC method of which we added the shape factors such as RCCI and TF to consider complicated shapes. The matching pairs were manually divided into exact-matching pairs and mis-matching pairs to evaluate the applicability of the new method for shape similarity into hazard maps for storm surges. And the shape similarity of each matching pair was calculated by changing the weights of each shape factor and criteria. Newly proposed methodology and the calculated weights were applied to the objects of the existent hazard map and the results from SIND model. About 90% of exact-matching pairs had the shape similarity of 0.5 or higher, and about 70% of mis-matching pairs were it below 0.5. As future works, if we would calibrate narrowly and adjust carefully multi-objects corresponding to one object, it would be expected that the shape similarity of the exact-matching pairs will increase overall while it of the mis-matching pairs will decrease.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.170-186
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• 2016

This paper introduces a multi-phase fuzzy risk graph model, representing a method for determining for SIL values for railway industry systems. The purpose of this paper is to compensate for the shortcomings of qualitative determination, which are associated with input value ambiguity and the subjectivity problem of expert judgement. The multi-phase fuzzy risk graph model has two phases. The first involves the determination of the conventional risk graph input values of the consequence, exposure, avoidance and demand rates using fuzzy theory. For the first step of fuzzification this paper proposes detailed input parameters. The fuzzy inference and the defuzzification results from the first step will be utilized as input parameters for the second step of the fuzzy model. The second step is to determine the safety integrity level and tolerable hazard rate corresponding to be identified hazard in the railway industry. To validate the results of the proposed the multi-phase fuzzy risk graph, it is compared with the results of a safety analysis of a level crossing system in the CENELEC SC 9XA WG A0 report. This model will be adapted for determining safety requirements at the early concept design stages in the railway business.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.113-125
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• 2019

Objectives: Although the risk assessments for nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$) and ozone ($O_3$) have been extensively studied, most of the existing risk assessments were limited mainly to indoor environments such as workplaces, schools, and multi-use facilities. Therefore, integrated risk assessment is needed to consider exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoors. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk among sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk of Koreans. Methods: In this study, we estimated time-weighted average exposure concentrations of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ for preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors using residential time and indoor concentrations (house, school or workplace, other), outdoors, and transport by meta-analysis method. The risk for $NO_2$ and $O_3$ were assessed by hazard quotient using reference concentrations 30 and 60 ppb, respectively. The risk assessments were conducted through 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in a house, school, or workplace, respectively. The risk assessment for the lifetime of a housewife and a worker showed that 33.8 and 28.4% of hazard quotients of $NO_2$ exceed 1, respectively, and more than 99% of hazard quotient of $O_3$ were less than 1. Conclusions: The risk of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewives and workers were assessed. The risk for $NO_2$ was higher than for $O_3$ and showed a different risk by sub-population group. Both $NO_2$ and $O_3$ showed a higher risk for housewives than for workers. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment for $NO_2$ and $O_3$.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.33-45
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• 2019

Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.