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http://dx.doi.org/10.13087/kosert.2019.22.1.33

Analysis of the potential landslide hazard after wildfire considering compound disaster effect  

Lee, Jong-Ook (Interdisciplinary Program in Landscape Architecture, Seoul National University)
Lee, Dong-Kun (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural system Engineering, Seoul National University)
Song, Young-Il (Korea Environment Institute, Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology / v.22, no.1, 2019 , pp. 33-45 More about this Journal
Abstract
Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.
Keywords
climate change; impact assessment; disaster restoration; TRIGRS; water repellency; debris flow;
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