• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.611-611
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• 2015

One of the hazard of nature is a drought. Its impact varies from region to region and it is difficult for people to understand and define due to differences in hydrometeorological and social economic aspects across much of the country. In the most general sense, drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually month, season or more, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is well known and has been used to study aridity changes in modern and past climates. The PDSI index is estimated over US using USHCN historical data.(e.g. precipitation, temperature, latitude and soil moisture). In this study, low frequency drought variability associated with climate variability such as El-Nino and ENSO is mainly investigated. With respect to the multi-scale analysis, wavelet transform analysis is applied to the PDSI index in order to extract the low frequency band corresponding to 2-8 years. Finally, low frequency patterns associated with drought by comparing global wavelet power, with significance test are explored.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.1583-1600
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• 2015

When natural disasters occur, including earthquakes, tsunamis, and debris flows, they are often accompanied by various types of damages such as the collapse of buildings, broken bridges and roads, and the destruction of natural scenery. Natural disaster detection and warning is an important issue which could help to reduce the incidence of serious damage to life and property as well as provide information for search and rescue afterwards. In this study, we propose a novel computer vision technique for debris flow detection which is feature-based that can be used to construct a debris flow event warning system. The landscape is composed of various elements, including trees, rocks, and buildings which are characterized by their features, shapes, positions, and colors. Unlike the traditional methods, our analysis relies on changes in the natural scenery which influence changes to the features. The "background module" and "monitoring module" procedures are designed and used to detect debris flows and construct an event warning system. The multi-criteria decision-making method used to construct an event warring system includes gradient information and the percentage of variation of the features. To prove the feasibility of the proposed method for detecting debris flows, some real cases of debris flows are analyzed. The natural environment is simulated and an event warning system is constructed to warn of debris flows. Debris flows are successfully detected using these two procedures, by analyzing the variation in the detected features and the matched feature. The feasibility of the event warning system is proven using the simulation method. Therefore, the feature based method is found to be useful for detecting debris flows and the event warning system is triggered when debris flows occur.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.159-172
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• 2018

In many epidemiological studies, missing values in the outcome arise due to censoring. Such censoring is what makes survival analysis special and differentiated from other analytical methods. There are many methods that deal with censored data in survival analysis. However, few studies have dealt with missing covariates in survival data. Furthermore, studies dealing with missing covariates are rare when data are clustered. In this paper, we conducted a simulation study to compare results of several missing data methods when data had clustered multi-structured type with missing covariates. In this study, we modeled unknown baseline hazard and frailty with Bayesian B-Spline to obtain more smooth and accurate estimates. We also used prior information to achieve more accurate results. We assumed the missing mechanism as MAR. We compared the performance of five different missing data techniques and compared these results through simulation studies. We also presented results from a Multi-Center study of Korean IBD patients with Crohn's disease(Lee et al., Journal of the Korean Society of Coloproctology, 28, 188-194, 2012).

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.503-529
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• 2015

Traditionally, multi-story buildings are designed to provide stiffer structural support to withstand lateral earthquake loading. Introducing flexible elements at the base of a structure and providing sufficient damping is an alternative way to mitigate seismic hazards. These features can be achieved with a device known as an isolator. This paper covers the design of base isolators for multi-story buildings in medium-risk seismicity regions and evaluates the structural responses of such isolators. The well-known tower building for police personnel built in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the Public Works Department (PWD) has been used as a case study to justify the viability of incorporating base isolators. The objective of this research was to establish a simplified model of the building that can be effectively used for dynamic analysis, to evaluate the structural status, and to suggest an alternative option to handle the lateral seismic load. A finite element model was incorporated to understand the structural responses. Rubber-steel bearing (RSB) isolators such as Lead rubber bearing (LRB) and high damping rubber bearing (HDRB) were used in the model to insert an isolator link element in the structural base. The nonlinearities of rubber-steel bearings were considered in detail. Linear static, linear dynamic, and nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed for both fixed-based (FB) and base isolated (BI) buildings considering the earthquake accelerograms, histories, and response spectra of the geological sites. Both the time-domain and frequency-domain approaches were used for dynamic solutions. The results indicated that for existing multi-story buildings, RSB diminishes the muscular amount of structural response compared to conventional non-isolated structures. The device also allows for higher horizontal displacement and greater structural flexibility. The suggested isolation technique is able to mitigate the structural hazard under even strong earthquake vulnerability.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.111-122
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• 2010

한강의 잠수교와 둔치는 장마철에 큰 홍수가 발생하면 침수가 되기 때문에 시민들의 안전과 편의를 위해 홍수로 인한 침수 발생시간을 예측하는 것은 대단히 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 FLDWAV모형을 이용하여 한강하류부의 팔당댐 방류량과 황해(서해) 조석이 한강하류부 수위에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 연구 대상구간은 팔당댐 하류부에서 전류지점까지이며, 조석영향을 고려하기위해 하류경계조건인 전류수위는 팔당댐방류량과 인천조위를 이용한 다중선형회귀분석을 통해 산정된 예측 전류수위를 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 잠수교와 주요 둔치에서 수위상승도달시간을 산정하였고, 팔당댐 방류유형과 황해조석에 따른 수위상승도달시간을 팔당댐 방류량의 함수인 2차다항식으로 나타냈다.

• 항공우주의학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.113-129
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• 2020

With the operation of the KC-330 MRTT (Multi Role Tanker Transport), which had been fielded in 2019, the ROKAF (Republic of Korea Air Force) has given fighter pilots a new mission of air refueling. As a result, fighter pilots are more likely to be exposed to risks they have never faced before, and it is necessary to look at the risk factors associated with human factors in air refueling missions. Therefore, in this study, an analysis using the HFACS (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System) model was performed for fighter pilots with air refueling qualifications. This study tried to prevent hazard in advance by discriminating the risk factors according to the human factors related to the fighter pilot during the air refueling mission.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.13-24
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• 2019

실시간 재난위험도 예측 모델인 SIND 모델의 정확도 확인 및 검증을 위해 다양한 형상유사도 개념을 적용하였다. 기하학적 방법론 중에서 가장 널리 이용되는 CRITIC 기법은 침수예상도와 같은 복잡한 지형 형상에 적용하기에는 분명한 한계점을 보여서 본 연구에서는 복잡한 전파특성의 형상을 평가할 수 있는 RCCI와 TF 등과 같은 형상인자를 추가하여 수정된 CRITIC 기법을 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 형상유사도 평가 방법을 폭풍해일의 침수예상도에 적용하여 검토한 결과, 면 객체 쌍들을 수동으로 정 매칭쌍과 오 매칭쌍으로 구분하였으며, 각 형상 인자들, 위치기준, 면적기준, 형상 기준의 가중치들을 변화시켜가며 각 매칭쌍의 형상유사도를 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 방법론과 산정된 가중치를 참고자료인 침수예상도의 지도 객체와 목표자료인 SIND 모델결과의 객체에 적용한 결과, 정 매칭쌍은 약 90%가 형상유사도 0.5 이상의 값을 가졌고, 오 매칭쌍은 약 70%가 0.5 미만으로 나타났다. 향후 다수의 객체가 하나의 객체와 대응되는 점을 보완 조정한다면 정 매칭쌍의 형상유사도는 전체적으로 증가하고 오 매칭쌍의 형상유사도는 감소할 것이라 판단된다.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.170-186
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• 2016

본 논문에서는 철도 시스템에서 안전무결성수준 평가를 위한 다단계 퍼지 리스크 그래프를 제안한다. 본 모델은 입력변수의 모호함과 주관적 전문가 판단의 단점을 보완하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 다단계 퍼지 리스크 그래프 모델은 2단계로 구성된다. 본 논문에서는 첫 번째 퍼지화를 위한 상세 입력 변수가 제안되고 첫 번째 단계에서 퍼지 이론을 적용하여 기존의 리스크 그래프 입력 변수인 심각도, 노출도, 회피도, 요구율을 산정한다. 퍼지 추론 및 역퍼지화 결과 2단계에서 적용할 입력변수가 도출된다. 두 번째 단계에서는 식별된 해당 해저드에 대하여 안전 무결성 수준과 허용 해저드율을 산정하여 안전 요구사항을 수립한다. 또한 다단계 퍼지 리스크 그래프 모델을 검증하기 위해 CENELEC SC 9XA WG A10 보고서에 소개된 건널목 시스템을 대상으로 한 안전성 평가 결과와 비교하여 모델을 검증하였으며, 철도 분야의 초기 개념 설계 단계 안전성 요구사항을 수립 시 적용할 수 있다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.113-125
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• 2019

Objectives: Although the risk assessments for nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$) and ozone ($O_3$) have been extensively studied, most of the existing risk assessments were limited mainly to indoor environments such as workplaces, schools, and multi-use facilities. Therefore, integrated risk assessment is needed to consider exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoors. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk among sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk of Koreans. Methods: In this study, we estimated time-weighted average exposure concentrations of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ for preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors using residential time and indoor concentrations (house, school or workplace, other), outdoors, and transport by meta-analysis method. The risk for $NO_2$ and $O_3$ were assessed by hazard quotient using reference concentrations 30 and 60 ppb, respectively. The risk assessments were conducted through 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool children, students, housewives, workers, and seniors spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in a house, school, or workplace, respectively. The risk assessment for the lifetime of a housewife and a worker showed that 33.8 and 28.4% of hazard quotients of $NO_2$ exceed 1, respectively, and more than 99% of hazard quotient of $O_3$ were less than 1. Conclusions: The risk of $NO_2$ and $O_3$ by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewives and workers were assessed. The risk for $NO_2$ was higher than for $O_3$ and showed a different risk by sub-population group. Both $NO_2$ and $O_3$ showed a higher risk for housewives than for workers. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment for $NO_2$ and $O_3$.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.33-45
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• 2019

Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.