• Title/Summary/Keyword: mortality model

Search Result 629, Processing Time 0.034 seconds

Fisheries Management of an Abalone Haliotis diversicolor in the Eastern Coastal Waters of Jeju Island using Yield-per-recruit Model (가입당생산량(yield-per-recruit) 모델을 이용한 제주 동부연안 오분자기류(Haliotis diversicolor)의 어업관리)

  • Ko, Joon-Chul;Yoo, Joon-Taek;Choi, Young-Min;Kim, Jae-Woo;Im, Yang-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Malacology
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.143-151
    • /
    • 2008
  • We studied the management policy for Haliotis diversicolor fisheries in the coastal area of Sungsanpo using Yield-per-recruit model from 2004 to 2006. The age at first capture($t_c$) and fishing mortality(F) annually estimated during the study period decreased and increased, respectively. The maximum yield-per-recruit in 2004 was increased by increasing $t_c$ from the 2.012 year of current $t_c$ to 2.7 year or increasing F from the 0.574/year of current F to 0.800/year, and that in 2005 was increased by increasing $t_c$ from the 1.946 year of current $t_c$ to 2.5 year or increasing F from the 0.578/year of current F to 0.880/year. In 2006, the maximum yield-per-recruit was increased by increasing $t_c$ from the 1.926year of current $t_c$ to 3.1 year or decreasing F from the 1.088/year of current F to 0.810/year. Further, although the current F in 2004 and 2005 was lower than the estimated $F_{MAX}$, that in 2006 was higher than the estimated $F_{MAX}$. These results indicate that the likelihood of growth overfishing with increasing catch of smaller H. diversicolor in 2006 was greater than in 2004 and 2005. As action that could prevent growth overfishing in fisheries management of H. diversicolor, increasing for the current $t_c$ could be a more appropriate policy because the artificial decrease of the number of woman divers related F is actually difficult.

  • PDF

Life Table Analysis of the Cabbage Aphide, Brevicoryne brassicae (Linnaeus) (Homoptera: Aphididae), on Tah Tsai Chinese Cabbages (다채를 기주로 양배추가루진딧물[Brevicoryne brassicae (Linnaeus)]의 생명표 분석)

  • Kim, So Hyung;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Hwang, Chang-Yeon;Lim, Ju-Rak;Kim, Kang-Hyeok;Jeon, Sung-Wook
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.53 no.4
    • /
    • pp.449-456
    • /
    • 2014
  • Life table analysis and temperature-dependent development experiments were conducted to understand the biological characteristics of the cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae (Linnaeus) on detached Tah Tsai Chinese cabbage (Brassica campestris var. narinosa) leaves at seven constant temperatures (15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 and $33{\pm}1^{\circ}C$; $65{\pm}5%$ RH; 16L:8D). Mortality was lowest at $24^{\circ}C$ with 18% and 0% at $1^{st}{\sim}2^{nd}$ and $3^{rd}{\sim}4^{th}$ nymphal stages, respectively. The developmental period of $1^{st}{\sim}2^{nd}$ nymphal stage was 8.4 days at $18^{\circ}C$, and it decreased with increasing temperature. The developmental period of the $3^{rd}{\sim}4^{th}$ nymphal stage was 6.7 days at $18^{\circ}C$. The lower threshold temperature calculated using a linear model was $7.8^{\circ}C$, and the effective accumulative temperature was 120.1DD. Adult longevity was 14.9 days at $21^{\circ}C$, and total fecundity was observed 58.5 at $24^{\circ}C$. According to the life table, the net reproduction rate was 47.5 at $24^{\circ}C$, and the intrinsic rate of increase and the finite rate of increase were 0.36 and 1.43, respectively, at $27^{\circ}C$. The doubling time was 1.95d at $27^{\circ}C$, and mean generation time was 7.43d at $30^{\circ}C$.

Technical Efficiency of Medical Resource Supply and Demand (의료자원 공급, 수요의 성과 효율성에 대한 실증분석)

  • Chang, Insu;Ahn, Hyeong Seok;Kim, Brian H.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.3-19
    • /
    • 2018
  • The objective of this study is to observe the efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources in Korea. For the empirical analysis, we constructed the dataset on age standardized mortality rate, the number of physician, specialist, surgery, medical institution, ratio of general hospitals of 16 provinces in Korea from 2006 to 2013. The panel probability frontier model is employed as an analysis method and considered heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of the error in panel data. In addition, the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the 16 provinces, unemployment rate, elderly population ratio, GRDP per capita, and ratio of hospitals in comparison to the general hospitals are used to find the effect on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on supply and demand of medical resources. The results are as follows. First, for the clinical performance, the supply side of human resources such as doctors and specialists and the demand side factors such as chronic illness clinic per unit population have a significant influence, respectively. Second, the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources of each input component was 59-70% in terms of clinical efficiency in each region. Third. estimates of technical efficiency of inputs that affect clinical performance showed a slight increase in all regions during the analysis period, but the increase trend decreased slightly. Fourth, the ratio of the elderly population and GRDP per capita have a positive influence on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources. The difference of each efficiency by region is due to the regional differences of the input medical resources and the combination of them and the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the region. It is understood that the differences in technological efficiency due to the complexity of supply and demand of medical resources, demographic structure and economic difference affecting clinical performance by region are different.

Impact of Social Activities on Healthy Life Expectancy in Korean Older Adults: 13-Year Survival Analysis Focusing on Gender Comparison (한국 노인의 사회활동이 건강수명에 미치는 영향에 대한 생존분석: 성별 비교를 중심으로 한 13년간 분석)

  • Yang, Seungmin;Choi, Jae-Sung
    • 한국노년학
    • /
    • v.41 no.4
    • /
    • pp.547-566
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of social activities on healthy life expectancy (HLE) by gender difference. HLE implies an estimate of how long an individual can expect to live in full health or without disease and/or disability. Morbidity, mortality, and functional health status usually have been known as key variables. Many researchers have tried to investigate factors affecting HLE in countries level by performing comparative analyses. In micro level, there have been some studies about social factors affecting HLE in individual level. However, few studies are found focusing on the relationship between HLE and social activities. This study anlayzes 4,029 over 65 years of age from the first wave (2006) to the seventh wave (2018) of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA), which is a national panel data collected by Korea Employment Information Service. The data has been collected as a part of social and economic policies planning for Korean government. HLE was measured by life period without disease or disability. One of findings is that male older adults (76.9 yrs) show higher HLE in comparing to female group (75.3 yrs). Female group appeared to be more likely to have higher incidence rate and disorders. Another finding indicates that age, number of chronic diseases, and subjective health status affect HLE of both groups. Finally, regarding social activities, religion affiliated activities appear to significantly affect HLE of both groups. In case of male older adults, alumni or hometown gathering also appeared another activities affecting HLE. This study indicates that the effect of social activities types on HLE among older adults appears differently by gender. Further, unlikely of longer life expectancy among female older adults as known, HLE shows a reverse estimate, longer healthy life expectancy among male older adults. This finding may imply that later life of female older adults shows lower quality of life in comparing to that of male group, even if female life expectancy has been higher. This study encourages to develop more social activity programs for older adults in community level. Specifically, more attention is required to planning for programs targeting female older adults.

Young Rabbit Model for Pathophysiologic Study of Acute Lung Injury in Early Childhood (유아기 급성폐손상 병태생리 연구를 위한 어린 토끼 실험모델)

  • 권영민;최석철;박종원;김양원;이양행;황윤호;조광현
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.36 no.8
    • /
    • pp.545-558
    • /
    • 2003
  • Adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is of particular interest because of its severity of the associated lung injury and its high mortality. However, the pathophysiologies of ARDS in infant and childhood groups are still not well clarified inspite of many previous investigations. To investigate the time course of pathophysiology of ARDS in infant and childhood groups, this study was designed with experimental endotoxin-induced ARDS model using young rabbits (8 week-old). Material and Method: Rabbits were divided into the control group (n=8) and the endotoxin-treated group (n=32). The endotoxin group was subdivided into 4 groups by the sampling times as 3, 6, 12 and 24 hr-groups (G- $E_{3,6,12,24,}$ each n=8). The experimental ARDS was made by a bolus injection of endotoxin (Escherichia coli serotype 055 : B5, 0.50 mg/kg) via rabbit ear vein. For evaluation of the hematologic and inflammatory markers, and superoxide dismutase (SOD) concentrations, the blood samples were taken from the heart. The bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) were obtained for analysis of the leukocytes and protein concentration. With biopsy of the lung, histopathologic changes of the lung were also evaluated. Result: In the endotoxin groups, significant leukopenia (owing to pancytopenia) occurred in 3 and 6-hr groups, which was followed by significant leukocytosis (owing to neutrophilia) in the 12 and 24-hr groups (p<0.05). Serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-$\alpha$ (TNF-$\alpha$) and interleukin-1 $\beta$ (IL-1 $\beta$) in the endotoxin groups were higher than those of control group (p<0.05). Serum levels of superoxide dismutase (SOD) of G- $E_{3}$ and G- $E_{6}$ were higher than those of control group, whereas those of G- $E_{12}$ were lower than those of control groups (p<0.05). Total leukocyte counts and protein con-centrations in BALF were significantly elevated in the endotoxin groups compared to the control group (p < 0.05). The hemorrhagic pattern of BALF showed occurred in the endotoxin groups. The endotoxin groups (in G- $E_{6}$) had severe infiltration of inflammatory cells (lymphocyte and monocyte) in the pulmonary interstitium and parenchyma, migrations of neutrophil and eosinophil into alveolar spaces and interstitial widening, which are the evidences of acute lung injury. In the endotoxin groups, there were significant positive correlations between the BALF findings and the immunologic markers (TNF-$\alpha$, IL-1$\beta$, SOD) (p<0.05). Conclusion: Severe acute lung injury occurred in all the endotoxin-treated rabbits. The pathophysiologic findings were so progressive until 6-hr by time dependant pattern, and then recovered slowly, Variable hematologic, immuno-logic, and pathologic factors were well correlated in the development and progression of endoxin-induced lung injury. The pathophysiologic responses were sensitive and rapid in young rabbit Young rabbit seemed to be a useful experimental animal model for infant and childhood groups.roups.

Nodal Station as a Prognostic Factor in Resected Stage IIIA N2 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (절제된 IIIA N2 병기 비소세포형 폐암에 있어서 Nodal Station의 의의)

  • 김대준;김길동;김치영;정경영
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.36 no.7
    • /
    • pp.489-496
    • /
    • 2003
  • To clarify the prognostic implication of the location and number of the metastatic mediastinal nodes in resected stage IIIA N2 non-small cell lung cancer. Material and Method: One hundred and seventy-four patients with resected non-small cell lung cancer who eventually proved to have pathologic stage IIIA N2 disease were studied. Patients who received preoperative induction therapy, non-curative operation or defined as operative mortality were excluded from this study. Result: In upper lobe tumors, there was no difference in 5-year survival according to the involvement of lower mediastinal nodes (32.3% vs 25.6%, p=0.86). In lower lobe tumors, no difference was found in 5-year survival according to the involvement of upper mediastinal nodes (25.1% vs 14.1%, p=0.33). There was no significant difference in 5-year survival between patients with or without metastatic subcarinal node (20.9% vs 25.6%, p=0.364). In terms of the number of metastatic mediastinal nodes, 5-year survival was better in single station group (26.3%) than multiple station group (18.3%) (p=0.048). In multiple station N2 group, the patients who received postoperative chemotherapy and radiation therapy had better 5-year survival (34.2%) (p=0.01). Cox's proportional hazards model revealed that the age $\geq$60 (O.R: 1.682, p=.006), multiple station N2 (O.R: 1.503. p=0.021), pneumonectomy (O.R: 1.562, p=0.018), postoperative chemotherapy and radiation therapy (O.R: 0.625, p=0.012) were the factors affecting the postoperative survival. Conclusion: Multiple station N2 disease was the important prognostic factor for postoperative survival in resected stage IIIA N2 non-small cell lung cancer. Postoperative chemotherapy and radiotherapy were thought to improve the survival in case of multiple station N2 disease.

Multivariate Analysis of Predictive Factors for the Severity in Stable Patients with Severe Injury Mechanism (중증 손상 기전의 안정된 환자에서 중증도 예측 인자들에 대한 다변량 분석)

  • Lee, Jae Young;Lee, Chang Jae;Lee, Hyoung Ju;Chung, Tae Nyoung;Kim, Eui Chung;Choi, Sung Wook;Kim, Ok Jun;Cho, Yun Kyung
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.49-56
    • /
    • 2012
  • Purpose: For determining the prognosis of critically injured patients, transporting patients to medical facilities capable of providing proper assessment and management, running rapid assessment and making rapid decisions, and providing aggressive resuscitation is vital. Considering the high mortality and morbidity rates in critically injured patients, various studies have been conducted in efforts to reduce those rates. However, studies related to diagnostic factors for predicting severity in critically injured patients are still lacking. Furthermore, patients showing stable vital signs and alert mental status, who are injured via a severe trauma mechanism, may be at a risk of not receiving rapid assessment and management. Thus, this study investigates diagnostic factors, including physical examination and laboratory results, that may help predict severity in trauma patients injured via a severe trauma mechanism, but showing stable vital signs. Methods: From March 2010 to December 2011, all trauma patients who fit into a diagnostic category that activated a major trauma team in CHA Bundang Medical Center were analyzed retrospectively. The retrospective analysis was based on prospective medical records completed at the time of arrival in the emergency department and on sequential laboratory test results. PASW statistics 18(SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) was used for the statistical analysis. Patients with relatively stable vital signs and alert mental status were selected based on a revised trauma score of more than 7 points. The final diagnosis of major trauma was made based on an injury severity score of greater than 16 points. Diagnostic variables include systolic blood pressure and respiratory rate, glasgow coma scale, initial result from focused abdominal sonography for trauma, and laboratory results from blood tests and urine analyses. To confirm the true significance of the measured values, we applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov one sample test and the Shapiro-Wilk test. When significance was confirmed, the Student's t-test was used for comparison; when significance was not confirmed, the Mann-Whitney u-test was used. The results of focused abdominal sonography for trauma (FAST) and factors of urine analysis were analyzed using the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. Variables with statistical significance were selected as prognostics factors, and they were analyzed using a multivariate logistics regression model. Results: A total of 269 patients activated the major trauma team. Excluding 91 patients who scored a revised trauma score of less than 7 points, 178 patients were subdivided by injury severity score to determine the final major trauma patients. Twenty-one(21) patients from 106 major trauma patients and 9 patients from 72 minor trauma patients were also excluded due to missing medical records or untested blood and urine analysis. The investigated variables with p-values less than 0.05 include the glasgow coma scale, respiratory rate, white blood cell count (WBC), serum AST and ALT, serum creatinine, blood in spot urine, and protein in spot urine. These variables could, thus, be prognostic factors in major trauma patients. A multivariate logistics regression analysis on those 8 variables showed the respiratory rate (p=0.034), WBC (p=0.005) and blood in spot urine (p=0.041) to be independent prognostic factors for predicting the clinical course of major trauma patients. Conclusion: In trauma patients injured via a severe trauma mechanism, but showing stable vital signs and alert mental status, the respiratory rate, WBC count and blood in the urine can be used as predictable factors for severity. Using those laboratory results, rapid assessment of major trauma patients may shorten the time to diagnosis and the time for management.

The Clinical Experiences of "New Duromedics Valve" Replacement (새로운 Duromedics 인공판막 치환의 임상고찰)

  • Gang, Myeon-Sik;Yu, Gyeong-Jong;Yun, Chi-Sun;Park, Han-Gi
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.30 no.10
    • /
    • pp.979-985
    • /
    • 1997
  • Between October 1991 and May 1995, 256 "New Duromedics Valve"(Edward TEKNA Bileaflet Valve) were implanted in 208 adult patients(171 mitral, 82 aortic and 3 tricuspid) with age ranging from 18 years to 70 years(mean 48.2$\pm$ 11.6 years). Postoperative complication rates were 12.2%, but there was none valve related one. Overall early mortality rate were 1.4%(1.6% for MVR, 2.1% for DVR, and none for AVR or TVR) respectively. Follow-up was 99% completed ranging in duration from 2 months to 46 months. There were 6 valve-related late complications(2.9%) with 2 patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 2 with cerebral thxomtioembolism, 1 with valve thrombosis and 1 with valve endocarditis. Freedom from these valve-related major complications were 89.9% at 40 months. There were 5 late deaths(2.4%). one of these late deaths was considered valve-related. Overall actuarial survival rates at 40 months were 95.5%, 96.8% for mitral, 97.1% for aortic, 100% for tricuspid, and 92.0% for double valve replacement respectively. Preoperative New York Heart Association functional class were 2.9, and 1.3 in post-operative state. We have been trying to keep the international normalized ratio(INR) with range of 2.5 to 3.0. The INR of 4 patients of 5 with anticoagulant ralated complications was beyond the range. To reduce the rate of anticoagulant related complications, we felt very strongly that the INR should be kept between 2.5 and 3.0. In our cases, there was no structural failure or significant hemolysis in the absence of periprosthetic leak. This experience encourages us to continue using the "New Duromedics Valve".omedics Valve".uot;.

  • PDF

Numerical Simulation of the Formation of Oxygen Deficient Water-masses in Jinhae Bay (진해만의 빈산소 수괴 형성에 관한 수치실험)

  • CHOI Woo-Jeung;PARK Chung-Kill;LEE Suk-Mo
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.413-433
    • /
    • 1994
  • Jinhae Bay once was a productive area of fisheries. It is, however, now notorious for its red tides; and oxygen deficient water-masses extensively develop at present in summer. Therefore the shellfish production of the bay has been decreasing and mass mortality often occurs. Under these circumstances, the three-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic and the material cycle models, which were developed by the Institute for Resources and Environment of Japan, were applied to analyze the processes affecting the oxygen depletion and also to evaluate the environment capacity for the reception of pollutant loads without dissolved oxygen depletion. In field surveys, oxygen deficient water-masses were formed with concentrations of below 2.0mg/l at the bottom layer in Masan Bay and the western part of Jinhae Bay during the summer. Current directions, computed by the $M_2$ constituent, were mainly toward the western part of Jinhae Bay during flood flows and in opposite directions during ebb flows. Tidal currents velocities during the ebb tide were stronger than that of the flood tide. The comparision between the simulated and observed tidal ellipses showed fairly good agreement. The residual currents, which were obtained by averaging the simulated tidal currents over 1 tidal cycle, showed the presence of counterclockwise eddies in the central part of Jinhae Bay. Density driven currents were generated southward at surface and northward at the bottom in Masan Bay and Jindong Bay, where the fresh water of rivers entered. The material cycle model was calibrated with the data surveyed in the field of the study area from June to July, 1992. The calibrated results are in fairly good agreement with measured values within relative error of $28\%$. The simulated dissolved oxygen distributions of bottom layer were relatively high with the concentration of $6.0{\sim}8.0mg/l$ at the boundaries, but an oxygen deficient water-masses were formed within the concentration of 2.0mg/l at the inner part of Masan Bay and the western part of Jinhae Bay. The results of sensitivity analyses showed that sediment oxygen demand(SOD) was one of the most important influence on the formation of oxygen depletion. Therefore, to control the oxygen deficient water-masses and to conserve the coastal environment, it is an effective method to reduce the SOD by improving the polluted sediment. As the results of simulations, in Masan Bay, oxygen deficient water-masses recovered to 5.0mg/l when the $50\%$ reduction in input COD loads from Masan basin and $70\%$ reduction in SOD was conducted. In the western part of Jinhae Bay, oxygen deficient water-masses recovered to 5.0mg/l when the $95\%$ reduction in SOD and $90\%$ reduction in culturing ground fecal loads was conducted.

  • PDF

No association between endothelin-1 gene polymorphisms and preeclampsia in Korean population

  • Kim, Shin-Young;Park, So-Yeon;Lim, Ji-Hyae;Yang, Jae-Hyug;Kim, Moon-Young;Park, Hyun-Young;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Ryu, Hyun-Mee
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
    • /
    • v.5 no.1
    • /
    • pp.34-40
    • /
    • 2008
  • Purpose : Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity and is considered to be a multifactorial disorder involving a genetic predisposition and environmental factors. Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent vasoconstrictor peptide, and alterations in the ET-1 system are thought to play a role in triggering the vasoconstriction seen with preeclampsia. The aim of this study was to examine the frequency of the 4 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (c.1370T>G, c.137_139delinsA, c.3539+2T>C, and c.5665G>T) of the ET-1 gene in normotensive and preeclamptic pregnancies and to investigate whether these SNPs are associated with preeclampsia in pregnant Korean women. Methods : We analyzed blood samples from 206 preeclamptic and 216 normotensive pregnancies using a commercially available SNapShot kit and an ABI Prism 3100 Genetic analyzer. Results : There were no significant differences in genotype or allele frequencies of the 4 SNPs in the ET-1 gene between preeclamptic and normotensive pregnancies. The respective frequencies of the 3 haplotypes (TDTG, GDCT, and TICT; >10% haplotype frequency) were 61%, 13% and 13%, respectively, in preeclampsic pregnancies and 62%, 14% and 12%, respectively, in normotensive pregnancies. The frequencies of these haplotypes were similar for both groups. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, we did not observe an increase in the risk of preeclampsia for the 4 SNPs of the ET-1 gene under either a recessive or dominant model. Conclusion : This study suggests that the 4 SNPs of the ET-1 gene are not associated with an increased risk for preeclampsia in pregnant Korean women.

  • PDF