• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.879-891
• /
• 2021

With improvements in living conditions, an increasing number of people are choosing to spend their time traveling. Comfortable tour routes are affected by the season, time, and other local factors. In this paper, the influencing factors and principles of scenic spots are analyzed, a model used to find the available routes is built, and a multi-route choice model based on a game theory utilizing a path recommendation weight is developed. A Monte Carlo analysis of a tourist route subjected to fixed access point conditions is applied to account for uncertainties such as the season, start time, end time, stay time, number of scenic spots, destination, and start point. We use the Dijkstra method to obtain multiple path plans and calculate the path evaluation score using the Monte Carlo method. Finally, according to the user preference in the input path, game theory generates path ordering for user choice. The proposed approach achieves a state-of-the-art performance at the pseudo-imperial palace. Compared with other methods, the proposed method can avoid congestion and reduce the time cost.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.331-343
• /
• 2019

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

• International journal of steel structures
• /
• v.18 no.5
• /
• pp.1508-1524
• /
• 2018

Hysteretic energy dissipating devices (HEDDs) have been increasingly applied to building construction to improve the seismic performance. The seismic responses of such damped structures are significantly affected by HEDD's structural properties. An accurate investigation on the propagation of HEDD's structural properties is required for reasonable evaluation of the seismic performance of a structure. This study aims to develop simplified methods that can estimate the collective uncertainty-propagation to the seismic response of damped structures employing HEDDs. To achieve this, three- and six-story steel moment-resisting frames were selected and the propagations of the individual HEDD's property-uncertainties were evaluated when they are subjected to various levels of seismic demand. Based on the result of individual uncertainty-propagations, a simplified method is proposed to evaluate the variation of seismic response collectively propagated by HEDD's property-uncertainties and is verified by comparing with the exact collective uncertainty-propagation calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The proposed method, called as a modified SRSS method in this study, is established from a conventional square root of the sum of the squares (SRSS) method with the relative contributions of the individual HEDD's property-uncertainty propagations. This study shows that the modified SRSS method provides a better estimation than the conventional SRSS method and can significantly reduce computational time with reasonable accuracy compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.56 no.5
• /
• pp.1845-1853
• /
• 2024

The setpoint of the reactor trip system shall be set to consider the measurement uncertainty of the instrument channel and provide a reasonable and sufficient margin between the analytical limit and the trip setpoint. A comparative analysis was conducted to find out an appropriate uncertainty combination method through an example problem. The four methods were evaluated; 1) ISA-67.04.01 method, 2) the GUM95 method, 3) the modified GUM method developed by Fotowicz, and 4) the modified IEC61888 method proposed by authors for the pressure instrument channel presented in ISA-RP67.04.02 example. The appropriateness of each method was validated by comparing it with the result of Monte Carlo simulation. As a result of the evaluation, all methods are appropriate when all measurement uncertainty elements are normally distributed as expected. But ISA-67.04 method and GUM95 method overestimated the channel uncertainty if there is a dominant input element with rectangular distribution among the uncertainty input elements. Modified GUM95 methods developed by Fotowicz and modified IEC61888 method by authors are able to produce almost the same level of channel uncertainty as the Monte Carlo method, even when there is a dominant rectangular distribution among the uncertainty components, without computer-assisted simulations.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.30 no.6
• /
• pp.679-690
• /
• 1997

The risk assessment model for hydrlolgic safety analysis of dam and levee in developed by using Monte-Carlo and AFOSM (Advanced First-Order Second-Moment) method. The fault tree analysis and four phases approach are presented for the safety eveluation of risk of dam and levee. The risk model consists of rainfall-runoff analysis, reservoir routing and channel routing considering the variations in the model parameter. For the rainfall-runoff analysis, KRRL method is adopted with 200-year precipitation and PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation). Reservoir routing is performed by fourth order Runge-Kutta method and channel routing by standard step method. The suggested model will contribute to safety evaluation of dam and levee and their rehabilitation decision problem.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.361-377
• /
• 2018

In this paper, an alternative reliability-based methodology is developed and implemented on the safety evaluation of structures subjected to seismic loading. To effectively elaborate the approach, structures are represented by finite elements and seismic loading is applied in time domain. The accuracy of the proposed reliability-based methodology is verified using Monte Carlo Simulation. It is confirmed that the presented approach provides adequate accuracy in calculating structural reliability. The efficiency and robustness in problems related to performance-based seismic design are verified. A structure designed by experts satisfying all post-Northridge seismic design requirements is studied. Rigidities related to beam-to-column connections are incorporated. The structure is excited by three suites of ground motions representing three performance levels: immediate occupancy, life safety, and collapse prevention. Using this methodology, it is demonstrated that only hundreds of deterministic finite element analyses are required for extracting reliability information. Several advantages are documented with respect to Monte Carlo Simulation. To showcase an applicability extension of the proposed reliability-based methodology, structural risk is calculated using simulated ground motions generated via the broadband platform developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center. It is validated the accuracy of the broadband platform in terms of structural reliability. Based on the results documented in this paper, a very solid, sound, and precise reliability-based methodology is proved to be acceptable for safety evaluation of structures excited by seismic loading.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• v.39 no.1
• /
• pp.30-37
• /
• 2014

Recently High-Definition Reference Korean-Man (HDRK-Man) and High-Definition Reference Korean-Woman (HDRK-Woman) were constructed in Korea. The HDRK phantoms were designed to represent respectively reference Korean male and female to calculate effective doses for Korean by performing Monte Carlo dose calculation. However, the Monte Carlo dose calculation requires detailed knowledge on computational human phantoms and Monte Carlo simulation technique which regular researchers in radiation protection dosimetry and practicing health physicists do not have. Recently the UFPE (Federal University of Pernambuco) research group has developed, and opened to public, an online Monte Carlo dose calculation system called CALDOSE_X(www.caldose.org). By using the CALDOSE_X, one can easily perform Monte Carlo dose calculations. However, the CALDOSE_X used caucasian phantoms to calculate organ doses or effective doses which are limited for Korean. The present study developed an online reference Korean dose calculation system which can be used to calculate effective doses for Korean.

• Journal of Conservation Science
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.127-134
• /
• 2011

In this study, there has been investigated the simulation of irradiation dose using Monte Carlo methodology and experimental substantiation for the biological control of wooden cultural property. In the evaluation of fungal contamination on wooden cultural property, Dongyae, from exhibition storage, Aureobasidium pullulans was mainly identified. But these microorganisms were completely inactivated by 20 kGy gamma irradiation. For dosimetry simulation of Dongyae, Monte Carlo methodology with MCNP was used. The real dosimetry was measured using alanin dosimeters (at 7 different points on the front plan and 7 points on the back plan). Simulated and experimental results are compared and good agreement is observed. These result shows that irradiation can offer biologic control of wooden cultural property by optimal irradiation dose through high penetration power and Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.40 no.2 s.175
• /
• pp.171-182
• /
• 2007

In this study, as a method for decreasing the confidence interval of the estimates of Clark hydrograph's concentration time and storage coefficient, regression equations of these parameters with respect to those of rainfall, meteorology, and basin characteristics are derived and analyzed using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The results are also reviewed by comparing them with those derived by applying the Bootstrap technique and empirical equations. Results derived from this research are summarized as follows. (1) Even in case of limited rainfall events are available, it is possible to estimate the mean runoff characteristics by considering the affecting factors to runoff characteristics. (2) It is also possible to use the Monte Carlo simulation technique for estimating and evaluating the confidence intervals for concentration time and storage coefficient. The confidence intervals estimated in this study were found much narrower than those of Yoo et al. (2006). (3) A supporting result could also be derived using the Bootstrap technique. However, at least 20 independent rainfall events are necessary to get a rather significant result for concentration time and storage coefficient. (4) No empirical equations are found to be properly applicable for the study basin. However, empirical equations like the Kraven(I) and Kraven(II) are found valid for the estimation of concentration time, on the other hand the Linsley is found valid for the storage coefficient In this study basin. But users of these empirical formula should be careful as these also provide a wide range of possible values.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.30 no.6
• /
• pp.691-698
• /
• 1997

The risk assessment model for dam and levee is applied to a river where two adjacent dams are located in the upstream of the watershed. "A" dam is proven to be safe with 200-year precipitation and unsafe with PMP condition, whereas "B" dam to be safe with 200-year precipitation and PMP condition. The computed risk considering the uncertainties of the runoff coefficient. initial water depth and relevant data of the dam and spillway turn out to be equivalent results in Monte-Carlo and AFOSM method. In levee risk model, this study addresses the uncertainty of water surface elevation by Manning's equation. Monte-Carlo simulation with the variations of Manning's roughness coefficient is calculated by assuming that it follows atriangular distribution. The model can be used for preparing flood risk maps, flood warning systems, and establishing nation's flood disaster protection plan.