• Title/Summary/Keyword: model change

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D-PSA-K: A Model for Estimating the Accumulated Potential Damage on Kiwifruit Canes Caused by Bacterial Canker during the Growing and Overwintering Seasons

  • Do, Ki Seok;Chung, Bong Nam;Joa, Jae Ho
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.537-544
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    • 2016
  • We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimate the accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the growing and overwintering seasons. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of the amount of necrotic lesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosis increase in a freezing environment during the overwintering season, and the amount of necrotic lesion on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the overwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the observed maximum disease incidence on kiwifruit canes against the damage estimated using weather and disease data collected at Wando during 1994-1997 and at Seogwipo during 2014-2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSA-K estimated the accumulated damage as approximately nine times the observed maximum disease incidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulated damage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when the observed disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K could assist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites for kiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved production plans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit production due to bacterial canker, using past weather or future climate change data.

Development of a Sustainable Regional Economic Growth Model (SREG) Using Multiplier Theory (승수이론을 이용한 지속가능한 지역경제성장모델의 개발)

  • Jung, Nam-Su
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2007
  • This paper develops a Sustainable Regional Economic Growth Model (SREG) which estimates the relation of labor population change and employment increase in each occupation and maximum limits and minimum requirements of employment increase by labor population change in a specified region using multiplier theory. To develop the proposed model, sustainable regional economic growth is defined as a steady increase of labor population over a long term period and the limit of employment increase is defined as the estimated labor population change in the region with no need for commutation from the surrounded areas. Developed model was applied to 67 county in Pennsylvania State and the results revealed that the investment in infrastructure occupations, such as transportation, warehousing, utilities, information, communication, and other public utilities, maximizes the effects for increasing employment, whereas finance, insurance, and real estate occupations have minimum effects for increasing employment. Calculated minimum requirements of occupations show that infra-structure occupations is a critical factor for labor population change and maximum limits of occupations show that agriculture and finance occupations are difficult to increase independently.

A Study of the Stream Specific by River Width's Downsizing & Extension (하천폭의 국부적 축소 및 확대에 따른 수리특성 연구)

  • Choi, Han-Kuy;Kim, Ju-Suk;Baek, Hyo-Sun
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.27 no.B
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    • pp.229-233
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    • 2007
  • This research investigated the way of generating the flowing of water in case of artificial fluctuation of river width by the unidimensional numerical analysis in order to reconstruct vertical and expanse features of flowing, and the problem of existing numerical analysis in accordance with local enlargement and reduction of river through hydraulic model experiments with results of numerical analysis. The result revealed that when the local section change in the same river is exist, it showed 0.93m in the case of no change of local section in the hydraulic model experiments and numerical analysis, however, it presented 1.645m on the occasion of local section changes in the hydraulic model experiments and numerical analysis. In other words, there was a significant difference in the existing numerical analysis, when there was a local section change. As a result of the experimental section for the enlargement and reduction of local river width, due to the sensitive change for fluctuation of flood discharge, there was a significant difference between numerical analysis and hydraulic model experiments. In addition, the result of comparison between the enlargement and reduction of local river width confirmed that the result of numerical analysis with hydraulic model experiments showed larger generation of deviation in case of enlargement of section than in case of reduction of section.

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The Hierarchical Linear Relationship of Individual and Organizational Variables with the Receptivity to Organizational Change of Professors in Junior Colleges (전문대학 교수의 조직변화 수용성과 개인 및 조직 변인의 위계적 관계)

  • Seok, Young-Mi;Na, Seung-Il
    • Journal of vocational education research
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.23-50
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to determine the hierarchical linear relationship among receptivity to organizational change, individual variables of professors and organizational variables in junior colleges. The population for this study was 12,920 professors in 139 junior colleges. Using random sampling method considering subject, 800 professors in 40 colleges were sampled for this study. The data were collected from May 26 to June 13. A total of 445 out of 800 questionnaires were returned of which 441 of 40 junior colleges were used for analysis after data cleaning. These data were analyzed by both descriptive statistics and One-way ANOVA with Random Effects, Ranmdom-Coefficients Regression Model, and Intercepts-and Slopes-as-Outcomes Model of hierarchical linear model(HLM). All data analysis was accomplished using the SPSS 20.0 for windows program and the HLM 6.0 for windows program. An alpha level of 0.05 was established priori for determining the significance. The findings of the study were as follows: First, the level of receptivity to organizational change of professions in junior college was 3.94. Second, 56.5% of total variance in receptivity to organizational change was individual level variance. 43.5% of total variance in receptivity to organizational change was organizational level variance. Third, personal valence about organizational change, psychological ownership, experience of assignment, years of service and job security had positive effects on receptivity to organizational change while years of service had negative effects on receptivity to organizational change. The effect of personal valence about organizational change was highest, and the effect of job security was lowest. Fourth, degree of organizational change, participative decision-making, group culture and accessibility of information related to organizational change had positive effects on receptivity to organizational change. The effect of degree of organizational change was highest, and the effect of accessibility of information related to organizational change was lowest.

A Change Point Problem in the Regression Model When the Errors are Correlated

  • Cho, Sinsup;Cho, Kwan Ho;Song, Moon Sup
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.68-81
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    • 1988
  • Testing procedures for a detection of change point in the regression model with correlated errors are discussed. A Bayesian approach is adopted and applied to a regression model with errors following an AR(1) model.

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Comparative Analysis of Land Use Change Model at Gapcheon Watershed (갑천 유역을 대상으로 토지이용예측모델 비교 분석)

  • Kwon, PilJu;Ryu, Jichul;Lee, Dong Jun;Han, Jeongho;Sung, Yunsoo;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Kim, Ki-Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.552-561
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    • 2016
  • For the prediction of hydrologic phenomenon, predicting future land use change is a very important task. This study aimed to compare and analyze the two land use change models, CLUE-S and SLEUTH3-R. The analysis of two models were performed based on the MSR value such that the model with more reliable MSR value can be recommended as an appropriate land use change prediction model. The model performance was examined by applying to the Gapcheon A watershed. Land use map of the study area of 2007 obtained from the Ministry of Environment was compared with the predicted land use map obtained from each of the two models. The result from both models showed somewhat similar results. The MSR value obtained from CLUE-S was 0.564, while that from SLEUTH3-R was 0.586. However, when land use map of 2010 was compared with predicted land use map obtained from the two models in same manner, the MSR value obtained from CLUE-S' was 0.500 while that from SLEUTH3-R was decreased to 0.397, an approximately 32.3% decrease from previous value of 2007. Moreover, SLEUTH3-R showed more sensitivity in conversion of urban areas, as compared to other land use types. Therefore, for the prediction of future land use change, CLUE-S model is more reliable than SLEUTH3-R.

Comparison of practice of dietary guidelines and health beliefs according to stage of weight loss behavior change among male workers (성인 남성근로자의 체중감소행동 변화단계에 따른 식생활 지침 실천 양상 및 건강신념 비교)

  • Song, Su Jeong;Ahn, HongSeok;Khil, Jinmo
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.276-284
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    • 2013
  • This study compared levels of health and dietary behavior practices and health beliefs according to the stage of weight loss behavior change of Korean male workers. A self-administered survey questionnaire was collected from 411 male adult workers residing in Seoul, Kyeonggi, Chungcheong region. Practices of health related behavior, including smoking, drinking, exercise, work related physical activity, and dietary behavior according to dietary guidelines were evaluated. In addition, the levels of perceived benefit, perceived barrier, perceived susceptibility, perceived seriousness, and perceived cue to action from the health belief model were measured according to the stages of weight loss behavior change. Significant differences in BMI, level of daily exercise, and practices of dietary behavior according to dietary guidelines were observed among stages of weight loss behavior change. Subjects who were in action/maintenance stage showed a more desirable level of health behavior and health belief model variables, except perceived barrier. Based on the findings of this study, it is suggested that subjects with different stages of behavior change need an appropriate specific nutrition education method and material for improvement of nutrition education efficacy.

Bayesian Multiple Change-Point for Small Data (소량자료를 위한 베이지안 다중 변환점 모형)

  • Cheon, Soo-Young;Yu, Wenxing
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2012
  • Bayesian methods have been recently used to identify multiple change-points. However, the studies for small data are limited. This paper suggests the Bayesian noncentral t distribution change-point model for small data, and applies the Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs Sampling algorithm to the proposed model. Numerical results of simulation and real data show the performance of the new model in terms of the quality of the resulting estimation of the numbers and positions of change-points for small data.

Cumulative GHG Reduction Impact Analysis by the Diffusion of Solar Thermal Energy Concerning Technologies for the Residential Sector (주거용 건물부문 태양열 기술 보급에 따른 누적 온실가스 감축 효과 분석)

  • Rhee, Dong-eun;Kim, Seung Jin;Jeon, Eui-Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2014
  • A key driver for climate change caused by global average temperature rise is greenhouse gas cumulative emissions that stay for long term in the atmosphere. Although at the moment there is no GHG emission, global warming will continue owing to GHG cumulative emission. In this study, scenarios are developed based on two types of optimistic and conservative diffusion goal. There were a total of 6 alternatives scenarios. The objective of this study are to compare scenarios in terms of GHG cumulative emissions and alternative fuels. An object of analysis is the residential buildings and time frame of scenarios is set up by 2030. And this study uses the LEAP model that is a bottom-up energy model. In conclusion, It is important to set specific diffusion pathway for mitigating climate change virtually.

Calibration and Sensitivity Analysis of LRCS Rainfall-Runoff Model(I): Theory (LRCS 강우-유출 모형의 보정 및 민감도 분석(I) : 이론)

  • O, Gyu-Chang;Lee, Gil-Seong;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.657-664
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    • 1999
  • This paper introduced the basic theory of LRCS(Linear Reservoir and Channel System) rainfall runoff model proposed by Korean researchers(Lee and Lee, 1995), and discussed the change of model output according to objective functions in sensitivity analysis and calibration process of model. It proposed "hat" matrix and affluence measures for affluence analysis of parameters in calibration, and investigated relationship between change of model output according to error propagation in parameter estimation, and sensitivity of model output according to variance of model output and change of parameters. Accuracy of parameter estimates was known by analysis of sensitivity coefficient, diagonal element $h_i$ and $D_i$._i$.

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