• Title/Summary/Keyword: model analysis

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Monthly temperature forecasting using large-scale climate teleconnections and multiple regression models (대규모 기후 원격상관성 및 다중회귀모형을 이용한 월 평균기온 예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Nam Won;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.731-745
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the monthly temperature of the Han River basin was predicted by statistical multiple regression models that use global climate indices and weather data of the target region as predictors. The optimal predictors were selected through teleconnection analysis between the monthly temperature and the preceding patterns of each climate index, and forecast models capable of predicting up to 12 months in advance were constructed by combining the selected predictors and cross-validating the past period. Fore each target month, 1000 optimized models were derived and forecast ranges were presented. As a result of analyzing the predictability of monthly temperature from January 1992 to December 2020, PBIAS was -1.4 to -0.7%, RSR was 0.15 to 0.16, NSE was 0.98, and r was 0.99, indicating a high goodness-of-fit. The probability of each monthly observation being included in the forecast range was about 64.4% on average, and by month, the predictability was relatively high in September, December, February, and January, and low in April, August, and March. The predicted range and median were in good agreement with the observations, except for some periods when temperature was dramatically lower or higher than in normal years. The quantitative temperature forecast information derived from this study will be useful not only for forecasting changes in temperature in the future period (1 to 12 months in advance), but also in predicting changes in the hydro-ecological environment, including evapotranspiration highly correlated with temperature.

Meteorological Factors Associated with the Number of Emergency Room Patients with Wrist-Cutting Behavior (손목자해로 응급실에 내원한 환자수와 기후인자와의 관련성)

  • Han, Jae Hyun;Suh, Seung Wan;Cho, Gyu Chong;Kim, Jung Mi;Seo, Hong Taek;Jung, Yu Jin;Seong, Su Jeong;Hwang, Jae Yeon;Lee, Won Joon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : Although the seasonality of suicide is a well-known phenomenon, little is reported about the seasonality of non-suicidal self-injury. The purpose of this study was to identify the seasonality of wristcutting behavior and to examine its relationship with meteorological factors. Methods : To identify the presence of seasonality, we investigated whether there was a difference in the average number of visits per month to an emergency room (ER) of an urban hospital for 226 patients with wrist-cutting behavior enrolled between December 2014 and May 2019. To ascertain significant meteorological factors, we used the multiple Poisson regression using generalized additive model with time, monthly temperature, monthly sunshine hour, and atmospheric pressure in the prior month as explanatory variables. Results : In males, the average number of monthly visits to the ER for wrist cutting behavior differed by month and was the highest in September (male : p=0.048, female : p=0.21, total : p=0.28). As a result of multiple regression analysis, the average number of patients admitted to the ER for wrist cutting behavior was related to the interaction between atmospheric pressure in the prior month and temperature in males (p=0.010), and showed a positive correlation with sunlight in females [p=0.044, β=4.70×10-3, 95% CI=(1.19×10-4, 9.27×10-3)]. Conclusions : Wrist cutting behavior shows seasonality in male, which is associated with changes in meteorological variables.

A Study on Landscape of Cheongpunggye (청풍계(淸風溪) 경관에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Hyang;Lee, Jae-Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.50-58
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    • 2011
  • Cheongpunggye is located in a valley where Baekaksan, the main mountain of Seoul and Inwang Mountain corresponding to right-white tiger(石白虎) divination based on topography are crossed. The owner of Cheongpunggye is Seonwon Kim Sangyong and many people had visited there without pause because of beautiful landscape since the early times of Chosun. Seonwon Kim Sangyong had ever studied together with Yulgok Yi I and Woogye Seong Hon. He was one of the Western faction(Seo-in) which was the leading power of Injo Coup and died for his chastity during Second Manchu Invasion of Chosun. He is known as a model of fidelity which is a symbol for scholar's spirit in Chosun together with his younger brother Cheongeum Kim Sangheon. Jangdong region, the clan village of New Andong family was the birthplace of Yulgok School which was the fundamental of scholar spirit of Chosun. And Jangdong would be the source of Jin-Gyeong(Real Scenery) Culture which was bloomed by Baekak club composed of Gyeomjae Jeong Seon, Sacheon Lee Byeongyeon, and Gwanajae Cho Yeongseok. The contents of this study are as follows. First, this study explored the placeness of Seochon region through the historical background like the relation between Jangdong, the clan village of Andong Kim family and Andong Kim family, and achievements of Seonwon Kim Sangyong and circumstances of that times. Second, this study tried to know original landscape of Cheongpunggye by investigating location, topography, water system etc. based on analysis of literature, old map, and paintings describing Cheongpunggye. The study was progressed in this way. To infer the original landscape, about 50 landscape elements of Cheongpunggye shown in Punggyejibseunggi(楓溪集勝記), Cheongpunggye Cheop, Cheongpunggye(淸風溪), the work of Gyeomjae Jeong Sean were searched, and then the location and form of the elements was analyzed. Furthermore, by analyzing the meanings of the names for the landscape elements, the thoughts(Naturalism, Taoism, Confucianism, Buddhism) supporting the structure of Cheongpunggye could be inferred. It is thought that these findings can contribute to exploration of placeness of Cheongpunggye. The study on original landscape of Cheongpunggye can be used as basic data when these works are executed-revival of Cheongpunggye, restoration of small streams in upper part of Cheonggyecheon, renewal of Seochon region.

Feasibility of Tax Increase in Korean Welfare State via Estimation of Optimal Tax burden Ratio (적정조세부담률 추정을 통한 한국 복지국가 증세가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, SeongWook
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.77-115
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to present empirical evidence for discussion of financing social welfare via estimating optimal tax burden in the main member countries of the OECD by using Hausman-Taylor method considering endogeneity of explanatory variables. Also, the author produced an international tax comparison index reflecting theoretical hypotheses on revenue-expenditure nexus within a model to compare real tax burden by countries and to examine feasibility of tax increase in Korea. As a result of the analysis, the higher the level of tax burden was, the higher the level of welfare expenditure was, indicating the connection between high burden and high welfare from the aspect of scale. The results also indicated that the subject countries recently entered into the state of low tax burden. Meanwhile, Korea had maintained low burden until the late 1990s but the tax burden soared up since the financial crisis related to the IMF. However, due to the impact of foreign economy and the tax reduction policy, it reentered into the low-burden state after 2009. On the other hand, the degree of social welfare expenditure's reducing tax burden has been gradually enhanced since the crisis. In this context, the current optimal tax burden ratio of Korea as of 2010 may be 25.8%~26.5% of GDP based on input of welfare expenditure variables, a percent that Korea was investigated to be a 'high tax burden-low ITC' country whose tax increase of 0.7~1.4%p may be feasible and that the success of tax system reform for tax increase might be higher probability when compare to others. However, measures of increasing social security contributions and consumption tax were analyzed to be improper from the aspect of managing finance when compared to increase in other tax items, considering the relatively higher ITC. Tax increase is not necessarily required though there may be room for tax increase; the optimal tax burden ratio can be understood as the level that may be achieved on average when compared to other nations, not as the "proper" level. Thus, discussion of tax increase should be accompanied with comprehensive understanding of models of economic developmental difference from nations and institutional & historical attributes included in specific tax mix.

The Leadership in Korean Confucianism and its Modern Characteristics : Chíjìng(持敬) to Zhìzhì(至治), the Leadership Wisdom (한국 유학의 리더십과 그 현대적 특징 - 지경(持敬)에서 지치(至治)로, 지혜의 리더십 -)

  • Kim, Dong-Min
    • The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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    • no.23
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    • pp.7-65
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    • 2008
  • The object of this essay is to apply the Leadership Theory, current interest in Asian Philosophy, to Korean appliance. This is to associate contemporary Leadership Theory with Chosun Confucianism in order to discover the Korean Leadership Prototype, and seek the possibility of applying it for modern usage. The essay uses two analysis models. The tools used for the methodology consists of the personal characteristics of the leader as one axis and ruling out the roles in order to develop the discussion as the other axis. First axis is the process of the leader setting the identity and strengthening the ability to successfully deploy his/her leadership. The second axis is comprised of four specific fields where the leadership is deployed. The four sectors are Self Sector, Relationship Sector, Team Sector and Community Sector. Core values of each sector have been set up and specific competences have been presented. In the Self Sector, $zh{\grave{i}}x{\bar{i}}n$(治心) and $ch{\acute{i}}j{\grave{i}}ng$(持敬) have been set as core values and $l{\grave{i}}zh{\grave{i}}$(立志) and $sh{\acute{i}}x{\bar{i}}n$(實心) as their competences. In the Relationship Sector and Team Sector, circumstances(時宜) and $sh{\acute{i}}sh{\grave{i}}g{\bar{e}}ngzh{\bar{a}}ng$(實事更張) were set as core values, accordingly. Lastly for the Community sector, the core value, 'Ideal Leader and the Visions of and Ideal Community', was conceptualized as '$m{\grave{ui}}m{\acute{i}}nzh{\grave{i}}zh{\grave{i}}$(牧民至治)'. The leadership is then expanded from the Self Sector to the final stage through its processes. Through this research, it can be found out that the Korean Leadership Model is not rigid to just cover a specific point in time or situation, but embraces many contemporary leadership concepts, thus having the characteristics of a comprehensive leadership theory.

Comparative study of volumetric change in water-stored and dry-stored complete denture base (공기중과 수중에서 보관한 총의치 의치상의 체적변화에 대한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Jinseon;Lee, Younghoo;Hong, Seoung-Jin;Paek, Janghyun;Noh, Kwantae;Pae, Ahran;Kim, Hyeong-Seob;Kwon, Kung-Rock
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.18-26
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: Generally, patients are noticed to store denture in water when removed from the mouth. However, few studies have reported the advantage of volumetric change in underwater storage over dry storage. To be a reference in defining the proper denture storage method, this study aims to evaluate the volumetric change and dimensional deformation in case of underwater and dry storage. Materials and methods: Definitive casts were scanned by a model scanner, and denture bases were designed with computer-aided design (CAD) software. Twelve denture bases (upper 6, lower 6) were printed with 3D printer. Printed denture bases were invested and flasked with heat-curing method. 6 upper and 6 lower dentures were divided into group A and B, and each group contains 3 upper and 3 lower dentures. Group A was stored dry at room temperature, group B was stored underwater. Group B was scanned at every 24 hours for 28 days and scanned data was saved as stereolithography (SLA) file. These SLA files were analyzed to measure the difference in volumetric change of a month and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for statistical analysis. Best-fit algorithm was used to overlap and 3-dimensional color-coded map was used to observe the changing pattern of impression surface. Results: No significant difference was found in volumetric changes regardless of the storage methods. In dry-stored denture base, significant changes were found in the palate of upper jaw and posterior lingual border of lower jaw in direction away from the underlying tissue, maxillary tuberosity of upper jaw and retromolar pad area of lower jaw in direction towards the underlying tissue. Conclusion: Storing the denture underwater shows less volumetric change of impression surface than storing in the dry air.

A Study on the Level of Citizen Participation in Smart City Project (스마트도시사업 단계별 시민참여 수준 진단에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Ji-Ho;PARK, Joung-Woo;NAM, Kwang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2021
  • Based on the global smart city promotion trend, in 2018, the "Fourth Industrial Revolution Committee" selected "sustainability" and "people-centered" as keywords in relation to the direction of domestic smart city policy. Accordingly, the Living Lab program, which is an active citizen-centered innovation methodology, is applied to each stage of the domestic smart city construction project. Through the Living Lab program, and in collaboration with the public and experts, the smart city discovers local issues as it focuses on citizens, devises solutions to sustainable urban problems, and formulates a regional development plan that reflects the needs of citizens. However, compared to citizen participation in urban regeneration projects that have been operated for a relatively long time, participation in smart city projects was found to significantly differ in level and sustainability. Therefore, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the characteristics of citizen participation at each stage of an urban regeneration project and, based on Arnstein's "Participation Ladder" model, examined the level of citizen participation activities in the Living Lab program carried out in a smart city commercial area from 2018 to 2019. The results indicated that citizen participation activities in the Living Lab conducted in the smart city project had a great influence on selecting smart city services, which fit the needs of local residents, and on determining the technological level of services appropriate to the region based on a relatively high level of authority, such as selection of smart city services or composition of solutions. However, most of the citizen participation activities were halted after the project's completion due to the one-off recruitment of citizen participation groups for the smart city construction project only. On the other hand, citizens' participation activities in the field of urban regeneration were focused on local communities, and continuous operation and management measures were being drawn from the project planning stage to the operation stage after the project was completed. This study presented a plan to revitalize citizen participation for the realization of a more sustainable smart city through a comparison of the characteristics and an examination of the level of citizen participation in such urban regeneration and smart city projects.

Nutritional status and metabolic syndrome risk according to the dietary pattern of adult single-person household, based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (국민건강영양조사 자료에 의한 식이 패턴별 1인 가구의 영양 상태와 대사증후군 위험도)

  • Keum, Yu Been;Yu, Qi Ming;Seo, Jung-Sook
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.23-38
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study was undertaken to evaluate the health, nutritional status and metabolic syndrome risk according to the dietary pattern of adult single-person households, using information obtained from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). Methods: Data were collected from the 2013-2016 KNHANES, of adults aged 19-64 years, belonging to single-person households. Based on cluster analysis, the dietary patterns of subjects were classified into three groups. The dietary behavior factors, health-related factors, nutritional status, and prevalence of metabolic syndrome obtained from KNHANES questionnaires were compared according to the individual dietary pattern. The nutrient intake data of the subjects were calculated using the semi-food frequency questionnaire. Moreover, blood and physical measurement data of the subjects were analyzed to obtain the prevalence of metabolic syndromes. Results: The major dietary intakes of subjects were classified as 'Rice and kimchi', 'Mixed', and 'Milk·dairy products and fruits' patterns. Characteristics of subjects based on their dietary pattern, gender, age, and education level were significantly different. The 'Milk and fruits' pattern showed low frequency of skipping breakfast and eating out, and had higher intake of dietary supplements. Frequency of alcohol intake and smoking rates were highest in the 'Mixed' pattern. Maximum nutrient intake of fat, vitamin A, riboflavin, vitamin C, niacin, calcium, phosphorus, and potassium was obtained in the 'Milk·dairy products and fruits' pattern. According to dietary patterns adjusted for age and gender, the risk of metabolic syndrome was 0.380 times lower in the 'Milk·dairy products and fruit' pattern than in the 'Rice and kimchi' pattern. However, when adjusted for other confounding factors, no significant difference was obtained between dietary patterns for metabolic syndrome risk. Conclusion: These results indicate that the health and nutritional status of a single-person household is possibly affected by the dietary intake of subjects.

Case Study on Success and Innovation Activities of Women Entrepreneurs: Focusing on Startups (여성 창업가의 성공과 혁신활동에 대한 사례 연구 : 스타트업을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Jungim;Kim, Sunwoo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.55-69
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    • 2021
  • For the national economic development, the participation of women in the social and economic activities is crucial. The popularization of start-ups, digital transformation, and WEconomy trends have lowered the barriers to opportunities for women to start a business and provide an environment in which women can grow faster. This paper examines the significance and process of success of women entrepreneurs and the characteristics of innovation strategies and achievements by linking the recently changing business environment of a company, factors influencing the success of women entrepreneurship, and innovation activities. To this end, four companies' cases were analyzed in the fields of distribution/service and consumer products/services, which are areas of large investment among female startups. The result shows that women entrepreneurs recognize the meaning of success as creating and continuing to create a 'corporate value through establishing a trust relationship with customers' within the 'balance between personal life and work.' In terms of the business ecosystem, women entrepreneurs strive for 'business activities based on the win-win growth of consumers, producers and sellers' for success, and rather 'focus on the process with a problem-solving approach' rather than achieving performance-oriented goals. Also through excellent power of observation, flexibility, and execution power, women entrepreneurs conduct business by adapting to changing trends. In terms of innovation activities, the innovation strategy of women-led companies puts priority on 'creating the value customers want' and focuses on innovation in the 'customer-centric business model' rather than technological innovation. As such, women-led companies show several differentiated characteristics, which enable them to create corporate value and achieve sustainable growth. The barriers to challenges and opportunities for women to start a business have been lowered, and an ecosystem has been created for female startups to grow. But why are there still so few women entrepreneurs, and the answer to where we need to close these gaps is ultimately a close analysis and investigation of the field. We must present milestones for growth steps through the accumulation of case studies of women startups that have exited. In addition, women can stand as economic agents only when the policy targets are subdivided and specific approaches to child-rearing and childcare for women entrepreneurs must be taken. This paper expects to serve as basic data for follow-up studies and become the basis of research for women entrepreneurs to grow as economic agents.

Evaluation the Feed Value of Whole Crop Rice Silage and Comparison of Rumen Fermentation according to Its Ratio (신규 조사료원 사료용 벼 사일리지의 사료가치 평가 및 급여 비율에 따른 반추위 발효성상 비교)

  • Park, Seol Hwa;Baek, Youl Chang;Lee, Seul;Kim, Byeong Hyeon;Ryu, Chae Hwa
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.236-243
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    • 2020
  • This study was to evaluate the feed value of whole crop rice silage (WCRS) and to investigate a suitable ratio of the WCRS and concentrate by an analysis of rumen fermentation. A total of 6 treatments were used according to WCRS: concentrate ratio on in vitro rumen fermentation: T1 (100:0), T2 (60:40), T3 (40:60), T4 (20:80), T5 (10:90), and T6 (0:100). The ruminal pH, total gas emission, ammonia nitrogen, and volatile fatty acid (VFA) were determined as fermentation parameters. Total nutrients digestibility trial was conducted by 4 treatments according to WCRS: concentrate ratio at 40:60 (W40), 20:80 (W20), and 10:90 (W10), respectively. Feed value was analyzed according to AOAC (2019) and nutrient digestibility was calculated based on NRC (2001). The levels of crude protein (CP), crude fat, and neutral detergent fiber of the WCRS were 12.29%, 1.67%, and 59.79%, respectively. It was found to be 51.49% as a result of predicting the total digestible nutrient of WCRS using the NRC (2001) model. In vitro rumen fermentation, T4, T5, and T6 treatments showed a greater gas emission and total VFA concentration compared with other treatments (p<0.05). Acetate and acetate to propionate ratio of T4, T5, and T6 were significantly higher than other treatments (p<0.05). There was a significant difference in the level of propionate and butyrate according to the WCRS: concentrate ratio (p<0.05). The digestibility of dry matter and CP was significantly lower in W40 than in other treatments (p<0.05); however, there was no difference in W20 and W10. In conclusion, the 20:80 (WCRS: concentrate) is beneficial for stabilizing the rumen that does not inhibit rumen fermentation and nutrient digestion. This ratio might have a positive effect on the economics of farms as a valuable feed.