• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.353-365
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• 2022

This paper evaluates precipitation forecast skill of Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) over South Korea in a boreal winter from December 2013 to February 2014. Three types of precipitation are classified based on development mechanism: 1) convection type (C type), 2) low pressure type (L type), and 3) orographic type (O type), in which their frequencies are 44.4%, 25.0%, and 30.6%, respectively. It appears that the model significantly overestimates precipitation occurrence (0.1 mm d^-1) for all types of winter precipitation. Objective measured skill scores of GRIMs are comparably high for L type and O type. Except for precipitation occurrence, the model shows high predictability for L type precipitation with the most unbiased prediction. It is noted that Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is inappropriate for measuring rare events due to its high dependency on the sample size, as in the case of Critical Success Index as well. The Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score (SEDS) demonstrates less sensitivity on the number of samples. Thus, SEDS is used for the evaluation of prediction skill to supplement the limit of ETS. The evaluation via SEDS shows that the prediction skill score for L type is the highest in the range of 5.0, 10.0 mm d^-1 and the score for O type is the highest in the range of 1.0, 20.0 mm d^-1. C type has the lowest scores in overall range. The difference in precipitation forecast skill by precipitation type can be explained by the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation in each representative case.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.599-610
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• 2018

The goal of this study was to statistically analyse the variability of global irradiance and ultraviolet erythemal (UVER) irradiance and their interrelationships with global and UVER irradiance, global clearness indices and ozone. A prediction of short-term UVER solar irradiance values was also obtained. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were included in the data set, as well as a time series of ultraviolet irradiance variability (UIV). The study period was from 2005 to 2014 and approximately 250,000 readings were taken at 5-min intervals. The effect of the clearness indices on global irradiance variability (GIV) and UIV was also recorded and bi-dimensional distributions were used to gather information on the two measured variables. With regard to daily GIV and UIV, it is also shown that for global clearness index ($k_t$) values lower than 0.6 both global and UVER irradiance had greater variability and that UIVon cloud-free days ($k_t$ higher than 0.65) exceeds GIV. To study the dependence between UIVand GIV the ${\chi}^2$ statistical method was used. It can be concluded that there is a 95% probability of a clear dependency between the variabilities. A connection between high $k_t$ (corresponding to cloudless days) and low variabilities was found in the analysis of bidimensional distributions. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were also analyzed and it was possible to calculate the probable future values of UVER irradiance by extrapolating the values of the adjustment curve obtained from the Gumbel distribution.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.63 no.3
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• pp.13-26
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• 2021

Recent drought events in the South Korea and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the agricultural drought. Various studies have been performed on drought hazard assessment at the regional scales, but until recently, drought management has been response oriented with little attention to mitigation and preparedness. A vulnerability assessment is introduced in order to preemptively respond to agricultural drought and to predict the occurrence of drought. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in South Korea. It was hypothesized that the key 14 items that define agricultural drought vulnerability were meteorological, agricultural reservoir, social, and adaptability factors. Also, this study is to analyze agricultural drought vulnerability by comparing vulnerability assessment according to weighting method. The weight of the evaluation elements is expressed through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which includes subjective elements such as surveys, and the Entropy method using attribute information of the evaluation items. The agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. This vulnerability assessment is calculated the vulnerability index based on the weight, and analyze the vulnerable map from 2015 to 2019. The identification of agricultural drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the South Korea and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management and supports government policymaking.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.10 no.7
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• pp.257-262
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• 2021

Accidents caused by black ice occur frequently every winter, and the fatality rate is very high compared to other traffic accidents. Therefore, a systematic method is needed to predict the black ice formation before accidents. In this paper, we proposed a black ice prediction model based on heterogenous and multi-type data. To this end, 12,574,630 cases of 46 types of land, infrastructure, transport public data and meteorological public data were collected. Subsequently, the data cleansing process including missing value detection and normalization was followed by the establishment of approximately 600,000 refined datasets. We analyzed the correlation of 42 factors collected to predict the occurrence of black ice by selecting only 21 factors that have a valid effect on black ice prediction. The prediction model developed through this will eventually be used to derive the route-specific black ice risk index, which will be utilized as a preliminary study for black ice warning alart services.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.49-62
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• 2023

Background: Over the past three decades, gradual eustatic sea-level rise has been considered a primary exogenous factor in the increased frequency of flooding and biological changes in several salt marshes. Under this paradigm, the potential importance of short-term events, such as ocean storminess, in coastal hydrology and ecology is underrepresented in the literature. In this study, a simulation was developed to evaluate the influence of wind waves driven by atmospheric oscillations on sedimentary and vegetation dynamics at the Skallingen salt marsh in southwestern Denmark. The model was built based on long-term data of mean sea level, sediment accretion, and plant species composition collected at the Skallingen salt marsh from 1933-2006. In the model, the submergence frequency (number yr^-1) was estimated as a combined function of wind-driven high water level (HWL) events (> 80 cm Danish Ordnance Datum) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in surface elevation (cm yr^-1). Vegetation dynamics were represented as transitions between successional stages controlled by flooding effects. Two types of simulations were performed: (1) baseline modeling, which assumed no effect of wind-driven sea-level change, and (2) experimental modeling, which considered both normal tidal activity and wind-driven sea-level change. Results: Experimental modeling successfully represented the patterns of vegetation change observed in the field. It realistically simulated a retarded or retrogressive successional state dominated by early- to mid-successional species, despite a continuous increase in surface elevation at Skallingen. This situation is believed to be caused by an increase in extreme HWL events that cannot occur without meteorological ocean storms. In contrast, baseline modeling showed progressive succession towards the predominance of late-successional species, which was not the then-current state in the marsh. Conclusions: These findings support the hypothesis that variations in the NAO index toward its positive phase have increased storminess and wind tides on the North Sea surface (especially since the 1980s). This led to an increased frequency and duration of submergence and delayed ecological succession. Researchers should therefore employ a multitemporal perspective, recognizing the importance of short-term sea-level changes nested within long-term gradual trends.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.429-444
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• 2024

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing due to climate change, causing significant social and economic damage. Consequently, understanding the climatological atmospheric environment and trends in Korea is becoming important. This study analyzes diurnal and intra-seasonal variations of instability indices and environmental parameters (Inst_Inds) using rainy season (May to September) upper-air data from seven stations in Korea. We also analyzed trends in the mean of the Inst_Inds and the counts over the moderately unstable threshold (MUT). CAPE, LI, and TPW exhibit diurnal variation more unstable at 1200 UTC, while KI, SWEAT, and SSI show the most stable at 0600 UTC. Most Inst_Inds show stronger instability in July and August compared to May, June and September, indicating significant intra-seasonal variations. SWEAT and TPW generally show destabilizing trends regardless of station and month, whereas other indices do not exhibit consistent trends. CAPE and LI show destabilizing trends at Baengnyeongdo and Bukgangneung, but stabilizing trends at Osan, Gwangju, and National Typhoon Center. These trends are particularly strong in July and August, and at Baengnyeongdo and Bukgangneung stations, indicating increased instability in northern Korea. The tendency of MUT excess frequency varies from station to station in most instability indices, but TPW shows an increasing trend regardless of the station. The inconsistent trend of counts over MUT in Inst_Inds with the recent increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rain in Korea suggests the need to adjust thresholds that currently do not reflect changes in extreme precipitation characteristics.

• Animal Bioscience
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• v.37 no.12
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• pp.2189-2201
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• 2024

Objective: Despite the considerable body of research on the effects of heat stress coupled with water scarcity (either through restriction or deprivation) on goats, aimed at enhancing their welfare, there remains a notable gap in the literature regarding the subsequent period following water restoration, during which the cumulative impact is fully alleviated. In response to this gap, we propose a strategy grounded in the assessment of body-thermal status to improve the welfare of heat-stressed and water-deprived goats. Specifically, our strategy seeks to determine the minimally required recovery interval necessary to completely mitigate the residual effects of water deprivation endured for a duration of 72 hours. Methods: Eight healthy Aardi bucks, aged 10 months and weighing 30 kg, were subjected to three distinct stages: euhydration, dehydration, and rehydration. Each stage spanned for 72 hours except for the rehydration stage, which was left unrestricted. Various meteorological, biophysiological, and thermophysiological measurements were subsequently recorded. Results: Exposure of heat-stressed goats, as indicated by the temperature-humidity index values, to a 72 hours deprivation period resulted in noticeable (p<0.05) alterations in their biophysiological (daily feed intake, body weight, and feces water content) and thermophysiological responses (core, rectal, skin, and surface temperatures, respiratory and heart rates, internal, external, and total body-thermal gradients, heat tolerance and adaptability coefficients, heterothermial total body-heat storage, and total water conservation). Remarkably, our findings demonstrate that all assessed variables, whether measured or estimated, returned to their baseline euhydration levels within 10 days of commencing the rehydration phase. Conclusion: In order to improve the welfare of heat-stressed and 72 hours water-deprived goats, it is imperative to allow a recovery period of no less than 10 days following the restoration of water access prior to initiating any subsequent experiments involving these animals. Such experiments, addressing these critical aspects, serve to advance our understanding of goat welfare and obviously hold promise for contributing to future food security and economic viability.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.10
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• pp.863-874
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on stream aquatic ecology health of Han River watershed ($34,148km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and random forest. The 8 years (2008~2015) spring (April to June) Aquatic ecology Health Indices (AHI) such as Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) and Fish Assessment Index (FAI) scored (0~100) and graded (A~E) by NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) were used. The 8 years NIER indices with the water quality (T-N, $NH_4$, $NO_3$, T-P, $PO_4$) showed that the deviation of AHI score is large when the concentration of water quality is low, and AHI score had negative correlation when the concentration is high. By using random forest, one of the Machine Learning techniques for classification analysis, the classification results for the 3 indices grade showed that all of precision, recall, and f1-score were above 0.81. The future SWAT hydrology and water quality results under HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) showed that the future nitrogen-related water quality in watershed average increased up to 43.2% by the baseflow increase effect and the phosphorus-related water quality decreased up to 18.9% by the surface runoff decrease effect. The future FAI and BMI showed a little better Index grade while the future TDI showed a little worse index grade. We can infer that the future TDI is more sensitive to nitrogen-related water quality and the future FAI and BMI are responded to phosphorus-related water quality.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.41-56
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• 1989

The purpose of this study is to find out the basic data for irrigation plans of garlic and cucumber during the growing period, such as total amount of evapotranspiration, coefficients of evapotranspiration at each growth stage, the peak stage of evapotranspiration and the maximum evapotranspiraton, optimum irrigation point, total readily available moisture, and intervals of irrigation date. The plots of experiment were arranged with split plot design which were composed of two factors, irrigation point for main plot and soil texture for split plot, and three levels ; irrigation points with pP 1.7-2.1, pP 2.2-2.5, pP 2.6-2.8, for garlic and those with pP 1.9, pF 2.3, pP 2.7, for cucumber, soil textures of silty clay, sandy loam and sandy soil for both garlic and cucumber, with two replications. The results obtained are summarized as follows 1.There was the highest significant correlation between the avapotranspiration of garlic and cucumber and the pan evaporation, beyond all other meteorological factors considered, as mentioned in the previous paper. Therefore, the pan evaporation is enough to be used as a meteorological index measuring the quantity of evapotranspiration. 2.1/10 probability values of maximum total pan evaporation during growing period for garlic and cucumber were shown as 495.8mm and 406.8mm, respectively, and those of maximum ten day pan evaporation for garlic and cucumber, 63.8mm and 69.7mm, respectively. 3.The time that annual maximum of ten day pan evaporation can be occurred, exists at any stage between the middle of May and the late of June(harvest period) for garlic, and at any stage of growing period for cucumber. 4.The magnitude of evapotranspiration and of its coefficient for garlic and cucumber was occurred in the order of pF 1.7-2.1>pF 2.2-2.5>pF 2.6-2.8 and of pF 1.9>pF 2.3>pF2.7 respectively in aspect of irrigation point and of sandy loam>silty clay>sandy soil in aspect of soil texture for both garlic and cucumber. 5.The magnitude of leaf area index was shown in the order of pF 2.2-2.5>pF 1.7-2.1>pF 2.6-2.8 for garlic and of pF 1.9>pF 2.3>pF 2.7 for cucumber in aspect of irrigation point, and of sandy loam>sandy soil>silty clay in aspect of soil texture for both garlic and cucumber. 6.1/10 probability value of evapotranspiration and its coefficient during the growing period for garlic were shown as 391.7mm and 0.79 respectively, while those of cucumber, 423.lmm and 1.04 respectively. 7.The time the maximum evapotranspiration of garlic can be occurred is at the date of thirtieth before harvest period and the time for cucumber is presumed to be at the date of sixtieth to seventieth after transplanting, At that time, 1/10 probability value of ten day evapotranspiration and its coefficient for garlic is presumed to be 65.lmm and 1.02 respectively, while those of cucumber, 94.8mm and 1.36 respectively. 8.In aspect of irrigation point, the weight of raw garlic and cucumber were increased in the order of pF 2.2-2.5>pF 1.7-2.1>pF 2.6-2.8 and of pF 1.9>pF 2.3>pF 2.7 respectively. Therefore, optimum irrigation point for garlic and cucumber is presumed to be pF 2.2-2.5 and pF 1.9 respectively, when the significance of yield between the different irrigation treatments is considered. 9.Except the mulching period of garlic that soil moisture extraction patterns were about the same, those of garlic and cucumber have shown that maximum extraction rate exists at 7cm deep layer at the beginning stage after removing mulching for garlic and at the beginning stage of growth for cucumber and that extraction rates of 21cm to 35cm deep layer are increased as getting closer to the late stage of growth. 10.Total readily available moisture of garlic in silty clay, sandy loam, sandy soil become to be 18.71-24.96mm, 19.08-25.43mm, 10.35- 13.80mm respctively on the basis of the optimum irrigation point with pF 2.2-2.5, while that of cucumber, 11.8lmm, 12.03mm, 6.39mm respectively on the basis of the optimum irrigation point with pF 1.9. 11.The intervals of irrigation date of garlic and cucumber at the growth stage of maximum consumptive use become to be about three and a half days and one and a half days respectively, on the basis of each optimum irrgation point.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.25-33
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• 2020

A drought event is characterized by duration, severity and affected area. In general, after calculating a drought index using hydro-meteorological time series at a station, a drought event is defined based on the run theory to identify the beginning and end time. However, this one-dimensional analysis has limitations for analyzing the spatio-temporal occurrence characteristics and movement paths of drought. Therefore, this study is to define a three-dimensional drought event using a simple clustering algorithm and to develop a drought map that can be used to understand the drought severity according to the spatio-temporal expansion of drought. As a result, compared with the two-dimensional monitoring information to show spatial distribution of drought index, a proposed drought map is able to show three-dimensional drought characteristics inclusing drought duration, spatial cumulative severity, and centroid of drought. The analysis of drought map indicated that there was a drought event which had the affected area less than 10 % while on occations while there were 11 drought events (44 %) which had the affected area more a than 90 % of the total area. This means that it is important to understand the relationship between spatial variation of drought affected area and severity corresponding to various drought durations. The development of drought map based on three-dimensional drought analysis is useful to analyze the spatio-temporal occurrence characteristics and propagation patterns of regional drought which can be utilized in developing mitigation measures for future extreme droughts.