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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Evaluation of Predictability of Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs) for the Winter Precipitation Systems over Korea

한반도 겨울철 강수 유형에 따른 전지구 수치모델(GRIMs) 예측성능 검증

  • 연상훈 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단) ;
  • 서명석 (공주대학교) ;
  • 이주원 (탑플러스영수전문학원) ;
  • 이은희 ((재)차세대수치예보모델개발사업단)
  • Received : 2022.09.14
  • Accepted : 2022.12.05
  • Published : 2022.12.31
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Abstract

This paper evaluates precipitation forecast skill of Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) over South Korea in a boreal winter from December 2013 to February 2014. Three types of precipitation are classified based on development mechanism: 1) convection type (C type), 2) low pressure type (L type), and 3) orographic type (O type), in which their frequencies are 44.4%, 25.0%, and 30.6%, respectively. It appears that the model significantly overestimates precipitation occurrence (0.1 mm d-1) for all types of winter precipitation. Objective measured skill scores of GRIMs are comparably high for L type and O type. Except for precipitation occurrence, the model shows high predictability for L type precipitation with the most unbiased prediction. It is noted that Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is inappropriate for measuring rare events due to its high dependency on the sample size, as in the case of Critical Success Index as well. The Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score (SEDS) demonstrates less sensitivity on the number of samples. Thus, SEDS is used for the evaluation of prediction skill to supplement the limit of ETS. The evaluation via SEDS shows that the prediction skill score for L type is the highest in the range of 5.0, 10.0 mm d-1 and the score for O type is the highest in the range of 1.0, 20.0 mm d-1. C type has the lowest scores in overall range. The difference in precipitation forecast skill by precipitation type can be explained by the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation in each representative case.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 주저자의 2018년 석사학위 논문을 바탕으로 작성되었습니다. 이 연구 과정에서 당시 다양한 의견과 검증 방법론을 제시하고 도움을 주셨던 (재)한국형수치예보모델개발사업단의 예보검증팀원들에게 감사의 마음을 전합니다.

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