• Title/Summary/Keyword: mean-squared error

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An alternative method for estimating lognormal means

  • Kwon, Yeil
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.351-368
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    • 2021
  • For a probabilistic model with positively skewed data, a lognormal distribution is one of the key distributions that play a critical role. Several lognormal models can be found in various areas, such as medical science, engineering, and finance. In this paper, we propose a new estimator for a lognormal mean and depict the performance of the proposed estimator in terms of the relative mean squared error (RMSE) compared with Shen's estimator (Shen et al., 2006), which is considered the best estimator among the existing methods. The proposed estimator includes a tuning parameter. By finding the optimal value of the tuning parameter, we can improve the average performance of the proposed estimator over the typical range of σ2. The bias reduction of the proposed estimator tends to exceed the increased variance, and it results in a smaller RMSE than Shen's estimator. A numerical study reveals that the proposed estimator has performance comparable with Shen's estimator when σ2 is small and exhibits a meaningful decrease in the RMSE under moderate and large σ2 values.

Sensitivity Approach of Sequential Sampling Using Adaptive Distance Criterion (적응거리 조건을 이용한 순차적 실험계획의 민감도법)

  • Jung, Jae-Jun;Lee, Tae-Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.29 no.9 s.240
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    • pp.1217-1224
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    • 2005
  • To improve the accuracy of a metamodel, additional sample points can be selected by using a specified criterion, which is often called sequential sampling approach. Sequential sampling approach requires small computational cost compared to one-stage optimal sampling. It is also capable of monitoring the process of metamodeling by means of identifying an important design region for approximation and further refining the fidelity in the region. However, the existing critertia such as mean squared error, entropy and maximin distance essentially depend on the distance between previous selected sample points. Therefore, although sufficient sample points are selected, these sequential sampling strategies cannot guarantee the accuracy of metamodel in the nearby optimum points. This is because criteria of the existing sequential sampling approaches are inefficient to approximate extremum and inflection points of original model. In this research, new sequential sampling approach using the sensitivity of metamodel is proposed to reflect the response. Various functions that can represent a variety of features of engineering problems are used to validate the sensitivity approach. In addition to both root mean squared error and maximum error, the error of metamodel at optimum points is tested to access the superiority of the proposed approach. That is, optimum solutions to minimization of metamodel obtained from the proposed approach are compared with those of true functions. For comparison, both mean squared error approach and maximin distance approach are also examined.

On the ridge estimations with the correlated error structure

  • Won, Byung-Chool
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1990.04a
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    • pp.263-271
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    • 1990
  • In this paper, we shall construct a ridge estimator in a multiple linear model with the correlated error structure. The existence of the biasing parameter satisfying the Mean Squared Error Criterion is also proved. Furthermore, we shall determine the value of shrinkage factors by the iteration method.

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On the Ridge Estimations with the Corrlated Error Structure

  • Won, Byung Chool;Kim, Hae Kyung
    • Honam Mathematical Journal
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 1987
  • In this paper we shall construct a ridge estimator in a multiple linear model with the correlated error structure. The existence of the biasing parameter satisfying the Mean Squared Error Criterion is also proved. Furthermore, we shall determine the value of shrinkage factors by the iteration method.

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Prediction of Blast Vibration in Quarry Using Machine Learning Models (머신러닝 모델을 이용한 석산 개발 발파진동 예측)

  • Jung, Dahee;Choi, Yosoon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.508-519
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a model was developed to predict the peak particle velocity (PPV) that affects people and the surrounding environment during blasting. Four machine learning models using the k-nearest neighbors (kNN), classification and regression tree (CART), support vector regression (SVR), and particle swarm optimization (PSO)-SVR algorithms were developed and compared with each other to predict the PPV. Mt. Yogmang located in Changwon-si, Gyeongsangnam-do was selected as a study area, and 1048 blasting data were acquired to train the machine learning models. The blasting data consisted of hole length, burden, spacing, maximum charge per delay, powder factor, number of holes, ratio of emulsion, monitoring distance and PPV. To evaluate the performance of the trained models, the mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used. The PSO-SVR model showed superior performance with MAE, MSE and RMSE of 0.0348, 0.0021 and 0.0458, respectively. Finally, a method was proposed to predict the degree of influence on the surrounding environment using the developed machine learning models.

Least mean absolute third (LMAT) adaptive algorithm:part I. mean and mean-squared convergence properties (최소평균절대값삼승 (LMAT) 적응 알고리즘: Part I. 평균 및 평균자승 수렴특성)

  • 김상덕;김성수;조성호
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.2303-2309
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents a convergence analysis of the stocastic gradient adaptive algorithm based on the least mean absolute third (LMAT) error criteriohn. Under the assumption that the signals involved are zero-mean, wide-sense sateionaryand gaussian, a set of nonlinear difference equations that characterizes the mean and mean-squared behavior of the algorithm is derived. Computer simulation resutls show fairly good agreements between the theoetical and empirical behaviors of the algorithm.

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On Prediction Intervals for Binomial Data (이항자료에 대한 예측구간)

  • Ryu, Jea-Bok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.943-952
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    • 2013
  • Wald, Agresti-Coull, Jeffreys, and Bayes-Laplace methods are commonly used for confidence interval of binomial proportion are applied for prediction intervals. We used coverage probability, mean coverage probability, root mean squared error, and mean expected width for numerical comparisons. From the comparisons, we found that Wald is not proper as for confidence interval and Agresti-Coull is too conservative to differ from confidence interval. However, Jeffrey and Bayes-Laplace are good for prediction interval and Jeffrey is especially desirable as for confidence interval.

On prediction intervals for binomial data (이항자료에 대한 예측구간)

  • Ryu, Jea-Bok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.579-588
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    • 2021
  • Wald, Agresti-Coull, Jeffreys, and Bayes-Laplace methods are commonly used for confidence interval of binomial proportion are applied for prediction intervals. We used coverage probability, mean coverage probability, root mean squared error, and mean expected width for numerical comparisons. From the comparisons, we found that Wald is not proper as for confidence interval and Agresti-Coull is too conservative to differ from confidence interval. However, Jeffrey and Bayes-Laplace are good for prediction interval and Jeffrey is especially desirable as for confidence interval.

Ratio and Product Type Exponential Estimators of Population Mean in Double Sampling for Stratification

  • Tailor, Rajesh;Chouhan, Sunil;Kim, Jong-Min
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2014
  • This paper discusses the problem of estimation of finite population mean in double sampling for stratification. In fact, ratio and product type exponential estimators of population mean are proposed in double sampling for stratification. The biases and mean squared errors of proposed estimators are obtained upto the first degree of approximation. The proposed estimators have been compared with usual unbiased estimator, ratio and product estimators in double sampling for stratification. To judge the performance of the proposed estimators an empirical study has been carried out.

Development of a Transfer Function Model to Forecast Ground-level Ozone Concentration in Seoul (서울지역의 지표오존농도 예보를 위한 전이함수모델 개발)

  • 김유근;손건태;문윤섭;오인보
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.779-789
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    • 1999
  • To support daily ground-level $O_3$ forecasting in Seoul, a transfer function model(TFM) has been developed by using surface meteorological data and pollutant data(previous-day [$O_3$] and [$NO_2$]) from 1 May to 31 August in 1997. The forecast performance of the TFM was evaluated by statistical comparison with $O_3$ concentration observed during September it is shown that correlation coefficient(R), root mean squared error(RMSE), normalized mean squared error(NMSE) and mean relative error(MRE) were 0.73, 15.64, 0.006 and 0.101, respectively. The TFM appeared to have some difficulty forecasting very high $O_3$ concentrations. To compare with this model, multiple regression model(MRM) was developed for the same period. According to statistical comparison between the TFM and MRM. two models had similar predictive capability but TFM based on $O_3$ concentration higher than 60 ppb provided more accurate forecast than MRM. It was concluded that statistical model based on TFM can be useful for improving the accuracy of local $O_3$ forecast.

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