• Title/Summary/Keyword: mean absolute error

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New approach to calculate Weibull parameters and comparison of wind potential of five cities of Pakistan

  • Ahmed Ali Rajput;Muhammad Daniyal;Muhammad Mustaqeem Zahid;Hasan Nafees;Misha Shafi;Zaheer Uddin
    • Advances in Energy Research
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2022
  • Wind energy can be utilized for the generation of electricity, due to significant wind potential at different parts of the world, some countries have already been generating of electricity through wind. Pakistan is still well behind and has not yet made any appreciable effort for the same. The objective of this work was to add some new strategies to calculate Weibull parameters and assess wind energy potential. A new approach calculates Weibull parameters; we also developed an alternate formula to calculate shape parameters instead of the gamma function. We obtained k (shape parameter) and c (scale parameter) for two-parameter Weibull distribution using five statistical methods for five different cities in Pakistan. Maximum likelihood method, Modified Maximum likelihood Method, Method of Moment, Energy Pattern Method, Empirical Method, and have been to calculate and differentiate the values of (shape parameter) k and (scale parameter) c. The performance of these five methods is estimated using the Goodness-of-Fit Test, including root mean square error, mean absolute bias error, mean absolute percentage error, and chi-square error. The daily 10-minute average values of wind speed data (obtained from energydata.info) of different cities of Pakistan for the year 2016 are used to estimate the Weibull parameters. The study finds that Hyderabad city has the largest wind potential than Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, and Peshawar. Hyderabad and Karachi are two possible sites where wind turbines can produce reasonable electricity.

Slope stability prediction using ANFIS models optimized with metaheuristic science

  • Gu, Yu-tian;Xu, Yong-xuan;Moayedi, Hossein;Zhao, Jian-wei;Le, Binh Nguyen
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.339-352
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    • 2022
  • Studying slope stability is an important branch of civil engineering. In this way, engineers have employed machine learning models, due to their high efficiency in complex calculations. This paper examines the robustness of various novel optimization schemes, namely equilibrium optimizer (EO), Harris hawks optimization (HHO), water cycle algorithm (WCA), biogeography-based optimization (BBO), dragonfly algorithm (DA), grey wolf optimization (GWO), and teaching learning-based optimization (TLBO) for enhancing the performance of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in slope stability prediction. The hybrid models estimate the factor of safety (FS) of a cohesive soil-footing system. The role of these algorithms lies in finding the optimal parameters of the membership function in the fuzzy system. By examining the convergence proceeding of the proposed hybrids, the best population sizes are selected, and the corresponding results are compared to the typical ANFIS. Accuracy assessments via root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and Pearson correlation coefficient showed that all models can reliably understand and reproduce the FS behavior. Moreover, applying the WCA, EO, GWO, and TLBO resulted in reducing both learning and prediction error of the ANFIS. Also, an efficiency comparison demonstrated the WCA-ANFIS as the most accurate hybrid, while the GWO-ANFIS was the fastest promising model. Overall, the findings of this research professed the suitability of improved intelligent models for practical slope stability evaluations.

Hierarchical Search-based Fast Schemes for Consecutive Block Error Concealment (연속된 블록 오류 은닉을 위한 계층 탐색 기반의 고속 알고리즘)

  • Jeon Soo-Yeol;Sohn Chae-Bong;Oh Seoung-Jun;Ahn Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.9 no.4 s.25
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    • pp.446-454
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    • 2004
  • With the growth of multimedia systems, compressing image data has become more important in the area of multimedia services. Since a compressed image bitstream can often be seriously distorted by various types of channel noise, an error concealment algorithm becomes a very important issue. In order to solve this problem, Hsia proposed the error concealment algorithm where he recovered lost block data using 1D boundary matching vectors. His algorithm, however, requires high computational complexity since each matching vector needs MAD (Mean Absolute Difference) values of all pixels, which is either a boundary line top or a boundary line bottom of a damaged block. We propose a hierarchical search-based fast error concealment scheme as well as its approximated version to reduce computational time. In the proposed scheme, a hierarchical search is applied to reduce the number of checking points for searching a vector. The error concealment schemes proposed in this paper can be about 3 times faster than Hsia's with keeping visual quality and PSNR.

Performance Comparison Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Models for Estimating Remaining Capacity of Lithium-Ion Batteries

  • Kyu-Ha Kim;Byeong-Soo Jung;Sang-Hyun Lee
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.310-314
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to predict the remaining capacity of lithium-ion batteries and evaluate their performance using five artificial intelligence models, including linear regression analysis, decision tree, random forest, neural network, and ensemble model. We is in the study, measured Excel data from the CS2 lithium-ion battery was used, and the prediction accuracy of the model was measured using evaluation indicators such as mean square error, mean absolute error, coefficient of determination, and root mean square error. As a result of this study, the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of the linear regression model was 0.045, the decision tree model was 0.038, the random forest model was 0.034, the neural network model was 0.032, and the ensemble model was 0.030. The ensemble model had the best prediction performance, with the neural network model taking second place. The decision tree model and random forest model also performed quite well, and the linear regression model showed poor prediction performance compared to other models. Therefore, through this study, ensemble models and neural network models are most suitable for predicting the remaining capacity of lithium-ion batteries, and decision tree and random forest models also showed good performance. Linear regression models showed relatively poor predictive performance. Therefore, it was concluded that it is appropriate to prioritize ensemble models and neural network models in order to improve the efficiency of battery management and energy systems.

Detection of Wildfire Smoke Plumes Using GEMS Images and Machine Learning (GEMS 영상과 기계학습을 이용한 산불 연기 탐지)

  • Jeong, Yemin;Kim, Seoyeon;Kim, Seung-Yeon;Yu, Jeong-Ah;Lee, Dong-Won;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_3
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    • pp.967-977
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    • 2022
  • The occurrence and intensity of wildfires are increasing with climate change. Emissions from forest fire smoke are recognized as one of the major causes affecting air quality and the greenhouse effect. The use of satellite product and machine learning is essential for detection of forest fire smoke. Until now, research on forest fire smoke detection has had difficulties due to difficulties in cloud identification and vague standards of boundaries. The purpose of this study is to detect forest fire smoke using Level 1 and Level 2 data of Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), a Korean environmental satellite sensor, and machine learning. In March 2022, the forest fire in Gangwon-do was selected as a case. Smoke pixel classification modeling was performed by producing wildfire smoke label images and inputting GEMS Level 1 and Level 2 data to the random forest model. In the trained model, the importance of input variables is Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), 380 nm and 340 nm radiance difference, Ultra-Violet Aerosol Index (UVAI), Visible Aerosol Index (VisAI), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA), formaldehyde (HCHO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 380 nm radiance, and 340 nm radiance were shown in that order. In addition, in the estimation of the forest fire smoke probability (0 ≤ p ≤ 1) for 2,704 pixels, Mean Bias Error (MBE) is -0.002, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is 0.026, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 0.087, and Correlation Coefficient (CC) showed an accuracy of 0.981.

Fast Black Matching Algorithm Using The Lower and Upper Bound of Mean Absolute Difference (블록 평균 절대치 오차의 최소 및 최대 범위를 이용한 고속 블록 정합 알고리듬)

  • 이법기;정원식;이경환;최정현;김경규;김덕규
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.24 no.9A
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    • pp.1401-1410
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, we propose a fast block matching algorithm using the lower and upper bound of mean absolute difference (MAD) which is calculated at the search region overlapped with neighbor blocks. At first, we calculate the lower bound of MAD and reduce the search point by using this lower bound. In this method, we can get good prediction error performance close to full search block matching algorithm (FSBMA), but there exists some computational complexity that has to be reduced. Therefore, we further reduce the computational complexity by using pixel subsampling besides the lower and upper bound of MAD. Experimental results show that we can remarkably reduce the computational complexity with good prediction error performance close to FSBMA.

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Short-term Reactive Power Load Forecasting Using Multiple Time-Series Model (다중 시계열 모델을 이용한 단기 부하 무효전력 예측)

  • Lee, Hyo-Sang;Cho, Jong-Man;Park, Woo-Hyun;Kim, Jin-O
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.105-111
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    • 2004
  • This paper shows that active and reactive power load have significant positive relationship and there exist two types of relationship between them using Test Statistics. In investigating the cross plots at every hour, we found out that from 0 to 8 hours, there relationships are linear, while from 9 to 23 hours, they are two piece-wise linear. Also, reactive power loads was estimated and forecasted using active power load as the explanary variable with OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression methods. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for each model is calculated for one-hour ahead forecasting.

Electricity Demand Forecasting for Daily Peak Load with Seasonality and Temperature Effects (계절성과 온도를 고려한 일별 최대 전력 수요 예측 연구)

  • Jung, Sang-Wook;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.843-853
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    • 2014
  • Accurate electricity demand forecasting for daily peak load is essential for management and planning at electrical facilities. In this paper, we rst, introduce the several time series models that forecast daily peak load and compare the forecasting performance of the models based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE). The results show that the Reg-AR-GARCH model outperforms other competing models that consider Cooling Degree Day(CDD) and Heating Degree Day(HDD) as well as seasonal components.

The Bus Arrival Time Prediction Using Bus Delay Time (버스지체시간을 활용한 버스도착시간 예측)

  • Lee, Seung-Hun;Mun, Byeong-Seop;Park, Beom-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2010
  • It is occurred bus arrival time errors when a bus arrives at a bus stop because of a variety of traffic condition such as traffic signal cycle, the time to get on and off a bus, a bus-only lane and so on. In this paper, bus delay time which is occurred as the result of traffic condition was estimated with Markov Chain process and bus arrival time at each bus stop was predicted with it. As the result of the study, it is confirmed to improve accuracy than the method of bus arrival time prediction with existing method (weighed moving average method) in case predicting bus arrival time using 7 by 7 and 9 by 9 matrixes.

Auto-calibration for the SWAT Model Hydrological Parameters Using Multi-objective Optimization Method (다중목적 최적화기 법을 이용한 SWAT 모형 수분매개변수의 자동보정)

  • Kim, Hak-Kwan;Kang, Moon-Seong;Park, Seung-Woo;Choi, Ji-Yong;Yang, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this paper was to evaluate the auto-calibration with multi-objective optimization method to calibrate the parameters of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated and validated by using nine years (1996-2004) of measured data for the 384-ha Baran reservoir subwatershed located in central Korea. Multi-objective optimization was performed for sixteen parameters related to runoff. The parameters were modified by the replacement or addition of an absolute change. The root mean square error (RMSE), relative mean absolute error (RMAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index (EI), determination coefficient ($R^2$) were used to evaluate the results of calibration and validation. The statistics of RMSE, RMAE, EI, and $R^2$ were 4.66 mm/day, 0.53 mm/day 0.86, and 0.89 for the calibration period and 3.98 mm/day, 0.51 mm/day, 0.83, and 0.84 for the validation period respectively. The statistical parameters indicated that the model provided a reasonable estimation of the runoff at the study watershed. This result was illustrated with a multi-objective optimization for the flow at an observation site within the Baran reservoir watershed.