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http://dx.doi.org/10.5207/JIEIE.2004.18.5.105

Short-term Reactive Power Load Forecasting Using Multiple Time-Series Model  

Lee, Hyo-Sang (전력거래소 정보기술처)
Cho, Jong-Man (전력거래소 중앙급전소)
Park, Woo-Hyun (한양대학교 대학원 전자전기공학부)
Kim, Jin-O (한양대학교 전자전기공학부)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers / v.18, no.5, 2004 , pp. 105-111 More about this Journal
Abstract
This paper shows that active and reactive power load have significant positive relationship and there exist two types of relationship between them using Test Statistics. In investigating the cross plots at every hour, we found out that from 0 to 8 hours, there relationships are linear, while from 9 to 23 hours, they are two piece-wise linear. Also, reactive power loads was estimated and forecasted using active power load as the explanary variable with OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression methods. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for each model is calculated for one-hour ahead forecasting.
Keywords
OLS(Ordinary Least Squares); Critical Value; MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error);
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