• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.227-236
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• 2006

프랙탈 차원은 연속적으로 관측된 불규칙한 자료의 성질을 정량적으로 표현하는 파라메터이다. 본 연구에서는 프랙탈 차원을 이용하여 태양 흑점수의 불규칙한 변동을 분석하고 다가오는 태양주기의 최대흑점수를 예측하였다. 이를 위하여 우리는 SIDC(Solar Influences Data analysis Center)에서 제공하는 1850년부터 2004년까지의 일일흑점수를 이용하여 Higuchi의 방법으로 각 태양주기의 프랙탈 차원을 결정하고 같은 태양주기 동안의 최대 월평균 흑점수와 비교하였다. 그 결과 프랙탈 차원과 최대 월평균 흑점수는 강한 역비례 관계를 보였다. 이러한 관계를 이용하여 태양활동 극소기부터 활동이 증가되는 기간인 4년동안의 흑점수만을 이용하여 프랙탈 차원을 구하고 다가올 극대기의 최대 월평균 흑점수를 예측한 결과 관측된 최대흑점수와 0.89의 좋은 상관관계를 보였다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.163-168
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• 2013

Parameters associated with solar minimum have been studied to relate them to solar activity at solar maximum so that one could possibly predict behaviors of an upcoming solar cycle. The number of active days has been known as a reliable indicator of solar activity around solar minimum. Active days are days with sunspots reported on the solar disk. In this work, we have explored the relationship between the sunspot numbers at solar maximum and the characteristics of the monthly number of active days. Specifically, we have statistically examined how the maximum monthly sunspot number of a given solar cycle is correlated with the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days for the corresponding solar cycle. We have calculated the linear correlation coefficient r and the Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient $r_s$ for data sets prepared under various conditions. Even though marginal correlations are found, they turn out to be insufficiently significant (r ~ 0.3). Nonetheless, we have confirmed that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is less steep when solar cycles belonging to the "Modern Maximum" are considered compared with rests of solar cycles. We conclude, therefore, that the slope of the linear relationship between monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days is indeed dependent on the solar activity at its maxima, but that this simple relationship should be insufficient as a valid method to predict the following solar activity amplitude.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.45.3-46
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• 2016

Solar activity shows a self-similarity as it has many periods of activity cycle in the time series of long-term observation, such as 13.5, 51, 150, 300 days, and 11, 88 years and so on. Since fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter for this kind of an irregular time series, we applied this method to long-term observations including sunspot number, total solar irradiance, and 3.75 GHz solar radio flux to predict the start and maximum times as well as expected maximum sunspot number for the next solar cycle. As a result, we found that the radio flux data tend to have lower fractal dimensions than the sunspot number data, which means that the radio emission from the sun is more regular than the solar activity expressed by sunspot number. Based on the relation between radio flux of 3.75 GHz and sunspot number, we could calculate the expected maximum sunspot number of solar cycle 24 as 156, while the observed value is 146. For the maximum time, estimated mean values from 7 different observations are January 2013 and this is quite different to observed value of February 2014. We speculate this is from extraordinary extended properties of solar cycle 24. As the cycle length of solar cycle 24, 10.1 to 12.8 years are expected, and the mean value is 11.0. This implies that the next solar cycle will be started at December 2019.

• 천문학논총
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.91-102
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• 1999

We have made intensive calculations on the maximum relative sunspot number and the date of solar maximum of 23rd solar cycle, by using the statistical and precursor methods to predict solar activity cycle. According to our results of solar data processing by statistical method, solar maximum comes at between February and July of 2000 year and at that time, the smoothed sunspot number will reach to $114.3\~122.8$. while precursor method gives rather dispersed value of $118\~17$ maximum sunspot number. It is found that prediction by statistical method using smoothed relative sunspot number is more accurate than by any method to use any data of 10.7cm radio fluxes and geomagnetic aa, Ap indexes, from the full analysis of solar cycle pattern of these data. In fact, current ascending pattern of 23rd solar cycle supports positively our predicted values. Predicted results by precursor method for $Ap_{avg},\;aa_{31-36}$ indexes show similar values to those by statistical method. Therefore, these indexes can be used as new precursors for the prediction of 23rd or next solar cycle.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.23-29
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• 2021

Utilizing a new version of the sunspot number and group sunspot number dataset available since 2015, we have statistically studied the relationship between solar activity parameters describing solar cycles and the slope of the linear relationship between the monthly sunspot numbers and the monthly number of active days in percentage (AD). As an effort of evaluating possibilities in use of the number of active days to predict solar activity, it is worthwhile to revisit and extend the analysis performed earlier. In calculating the Pearson's linear correlation coefficient r, the Spearman's rank-order correlation coefficient rs, and the Kendall's τ coefficient with the rejection probability, we have calculated the slope for a given solar cycle in three different ways, namely, by counting the spotless day that occurred during the ascending phase and the descending phase of the solar cycle separately, and during the period corresponding to solar minimum ± 2 years as well. We have found that the maximum solar sunspot number of a given solar cycle and the duration of the ascending phase are hardly correlated with the slope of a linear function of the monthly sunspot numbers and AD. On the other hand, the duration of a solar cycle is found to be marginally correlated with the slope with the rejection probabilities less than a couple of percent. We have also attempted to compare the relation of the monthly sunspot numbers with AD for the even and odd solar cycles. It is inconclusive, however, that the slopes of the linear relationship between the monthly group numbers and AD are subject to the even and odd solar cycles.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.245-251
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• 2012

Since the development of surface magnetic features should reflect the evolution of the solar magnetic field in the deep interior of the Sun, it is crucial to study properties of sunspots and sunspot groups to understand the physical processes working below the solar surface. Here, using the data set of sunspot groups observed at the ButterStar observatory for 3,364 days from 2002 October 16 to 2011 December 31, we investigate temporal change of sunspot groups depending on their Z$\ddot{u}$rich classification type. Our main findings are as follows: (1) There are more sunspot groups in the southern hemisphere in solar cycle 23, while more sunspot groups appear in the northern hemisphere in solar cycle 24. We also note that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23 the decreasing tendency is apparently steeper in the solar northern hemisphere than in the solar southern hemisphere. (2) Some of sunspot group types make a secondary peak in the distribution between the solar maximum and the solar minimum. More importantly, in this particular data set, sunspot groups which have appeared in the solar southern hemisphere make a secondary peak 1 year after a secondary peak occurs in the solar northern hemisphere. (3) The temporal variations of small and large sunspot group numbers are disparate. That is, the number of large sunspot group declines earlier and faster and that the number of small sunspot group begins to rise earlier and faster. (4) The total number of observed sunspot is found to behave more likewise as the small sunspot group does. Hence, according to our findings, behaviors and evolution of small magnetic flux tubes and large magnetic flux tubes seem to be different over solar cycles. Finally, we conclude by briefly pointing out its implication on the space weather forecast.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.145-148
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• 2014

There was a research on the prolongation of solar cycle 23 by the solar cyclic variation of solar, interplanetary geomagnetic parameters by Oh & Kim (2013). They also suggested that the sunspot number cannot typically explain the variation of total solar irradiance any more. Instead of the sunspot number, a new index is introduced to explain the degree of solar activity. We have analyzed the frequency of sunspot appearance, the length of solar cycle, and the rise time to a solar maximum as the characteristics of solar cycle. Then, we have examined the predictability of solar activity by the characteristics of preceding solar cycle. We have also investigated the hemispheric variation of flare index for the periods that the leading sunspot has the same magnetic polarity. As a result, it was found that there was a good correlation between the length of preceding solar cycle and spotless days. When the length of preceding solar cycle gets longer, the spotless days increase. It is also shown that the shorter rise time to a solar maximum is highly correlated with the increase of sunspots at a solar maximum. Therefore, the appearance frequency of spotless days and the length of solar cycle are more significant than the general sunspot number as an index of declining solar activity. Additionally, the activity of flares leads in the northern hemisphere and is stronger in the hemisphere with leading sunspots in positive polarity than in the hemisphere with leading sunspots in negative polarity. This result suggests that it is necessary to analyze the magnetic polarity's effect on the flares and to interpret the period from the solar maximum to solar maximum as the definition of solar cycle.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.100.1-100.1
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• 2011

Everybody wants to see the future, but nobody does for sure. Reliably forecasting the solar activity in the near future looks like an easy task, but in fact still remains one of difficult problems in the solar-terrestrial research. We have sought for good univariate methods that can predict future smoothed sunspot numbers reasonably well based on past smoothed sunspot number data only. Here we consider a specific method we call principal component-and-autoregression (PCAR) method. The variation of sunspot number during a period of finite duration (past) before an epoch (present) is modeled by a linear combination of a small number of dominant principal components, and this model is extended to the period (future) beyond the epoch using the autoregressive model of finite order. From the application of this method, we find that the $24^{th}$ solar maximum is likely to occur near the end of the year 2013 (and there is a possibility that it occurs earlier near the start of 2013), and to have a peak sunspot number of about 86, indicating that the activity of the $24^{th}$ cycle will be weaker than the average. We will discuss how much this estimate is reliable.

• 천문학회지
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.139-148
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• 2022

We explore the latitudinal distribution of sunspots and pursue to establish a correlation between the statistical parameters of the latitudinal distribution of sunspots and characteristics of solar activity. For this purpose, we have statistically analyzed the daily sunspot areas and latitudes observed from May in 1874 to September in 2016. As results, we confirm that the maximum of the monthly averaged International Sunspot Number (ISN) strongly correlates with the mean number of sunspots per day, while the maximum ISN strongly anti-correlates with the number of spotless days. We find that both the maximum ISN and the mean number of sunspots per day strongly correlate with the the average latitude, the standard deviation, the skewness of the the latitudinal distribution of sunspots, while they appears to marginally correlate with the kurtosis. It is also found that the northern and southern hemispheres seem to show a correlated behavior in a different way when sunspots appearing in the northern and southern hemispheres are examined separately.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.99-99
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• 2011

A statistical study of coronal hole merging and splitting has been performed through Solar Cycle 23. The NOAA/SESC solar synoptic maps are examined to identify inarguably clear events of coronal hole merging and splitting. The numbers of merging events and splitting events are more or less comparable regardless of the phase in the solar cycle. The number of both events, however, definitely shows the phase dependence in the solar cycle. It apparently has a minimum at the solar minimum whereas its maximum is located in the declining phase of the sunspot activity, about a year after the second peak in Solar Cycle 23. There are more events of merging and splitting in the descending phase than in the ascending phase. Interestingly, no event is found at the local minimum between the two peaks of the sunspot activity. This trend can be compared with the variation of the average magnetic field strength and the radial field component in the solar wind through the solar cycle. In Ulysses observations, both of these quantities have a minimum at the solar minimum while their maximum is located in the descending phase, a while after the second peak of the sunspot activity. At the local minimum between the two peaks in the solar cycle, the field strength and the radial component both have a shallow local minimum or an inflection point. At the moment, the physical reason for these resembling tendencies is difficult to understand with existing theories. Seeing that merging and splitting of coronal holes are possible by passage of opposite polarity magnetic structures, we may suggest that the energizing activities in the solar surface such as motions of flux tubes are not exactly in phase with sunspot generation, but are more active some time after the sunspot maximum.