• Title/Summary/Keyword: matching prediction

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기상청 고해상도 국지 앙상블 예측 시스템 구축 및 성능 검증 (Development and Evaluation of the High Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System in the Korea Meteorological Administration)

  • 김세현;김현미;계준경;이승우
    • 대기
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2015
  • Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

선형예측에 의한 숫자음성 자동인식 (A Spoken Korean-Digits Recognition System Based on Linear Prdiction Spectra)

  • 오영환
    • 대한전자공학회논문지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.12-19
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    • 1980
  • A speech recognition system for separately pronounced Korean digits is described. The system is composed of four stages ; parameter extraction, segmentation by voiced-unovied analysis, formant tracking and pattern matching. Digit speech is segmented into an unvoiced segment and/or a voiced one using ZCR and energy measurements, then to estimate the first three formant frequencies a relatively simple formant tracking scheme is applied to the raw formant data extracted from linear prediction spectra. Finally, pattern matching is made using dynamic programmig method. Recognition experiment is carried out for 150 digit utterences spoken by three male speakers, and recgnition rate 94 % is obtained.

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Learning Method for Real-time Crime Prediction Model Utilizing CCTV

  • Bang, Seung-Hwan;Cho, Hyun-Bo
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2016
  • We propose a method to train a model that can predict the probability of a crime being committed. CCTV data by matching criminal events are required to train the crime prediction model. However, collecting CCTV data appropriate for training is difficult. Thus, we collected actual criminal records and converted them to an appropriate format using variables by considering a crime prediction environment and the availability of real-time data collection from CCTV. In addition, we identified new specific crime types according to the characteristics of criminal events and trained and tested the prediction model by applying neural network partial least squares for each crime type. Results show a level of predictive accuracy sufficiently significant to demonstrate the applicability of CCTV to real-time crime prediction.

생물정보학적 접근을 통한 Caenorhabditis elegans 모델시스템의 생체내 RNAi 기능예측 및 비특이적 공동발현억제 현상 분석 (Bioinformatics Approach to Direct Target Prediction for RNAi Function and Non-specific Cosuppression in Caenorhabditis elegans)

  • 김태호;김의용;주현
    • KSBB Journal
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2011
  • Some computational approaches are needed for clarifying RNAi sequences, because it takes much time and endeavor that almost of RNAi sequences are verified by experimental data. Incorrectness of RNAi mechanism and other unaware factors in organism system are frequently faced with questions regarding potential use of RNAi as therapeutic applications. Our massive parallelized pair alignment scoring between dsRNA in Genebank and expressed sequence tags (ESTs) in Caenorhabditis elegans Genome Sequencing Projects revealed that this provides a useful tool for the prediction of RNAi induced cosuppression details for practical use. This pair alignment scoring method using high performance computing exhibited some possibility that numerous unwanted gene silencing and cosuppression exist even at high matching scores each other. The classifying the relative higher matching score of them based on GO (Gene Ontology) system could present mapping dsRNA of C. elegans and functional roles in an applied system. Our prediction also exhibited that more than 78% of the predicted co-suppressible genes are located in the ribosomal spot of C. elegans.

움직임벡터의 분포와 적응적인 탐색 패턴 및 매칭기준을 이용한 유사 무손실 고속 움직임 예측 알고리즘 (Quasi-Lossless Fast Motion Estimation Algorithm using Distribution of Motion Vector and Adaptive Search Pattern and Matching Criterion)

  • 박성모;유태경;정용재;문광석;김종남
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제13권7호
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    • pp.991-999
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    • 2010
  • 본 논문에서는 비디오 부호화에서 움직임 추정을 위한 고속 알고리즘을 제안한다. 기존의 고속 움직임 예측 방법들은 프레임에 따라 예측화질이 현저히 떨어지는 문제점을 가지고 있으며, 전영역 탐색기반의 향상 방법들은 계산량 감축이 높지 않은 문제점을 지니고 있다. 본 논문에서는 전영역 탐색기반의 방법에 비하여 예측화질은 거의 같게 유지하면서 불필요한 계산량을 현저히 줄이는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안하는 방법은 움직임 벡터의 확률분포와 적응적인 탐색 패턴 및 적응적인 블록매칭기준을 이용한다. 움직임 벡터의 확률분포에 따라 탐색패턴을 달리하며, 블록매칭 기준의 비교값을 다르게 함으로써 예측화질을 유지하면서 계산량만 효율적으로 감축할 수 있다. 제안한 알고리즘은 기존의 전영역 탐색 기반인 H.264 PDE 고속 알고리즘과 비교하여 예측 화질의 저하가 0~0.02dB이며, 소요된 계산량은 20%~30%정도이다. 제안한 알고리즘은 MPEG-2 및 MPEG-4 AVC를 이용하는 실시간 비디오 압축 응용분야에 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

탐색영역의 중요도와 적응적인 매칭기준을 이용한 고속 움직임 예측 알고리즘 (Fast Motion Estimation Algorithm Using Importance of Search Range and Adaptive Matching Criterion)

  • 최홍석;김종남;정신일
    • 융합신호처리학회논문지
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.129-133
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    • 2015
  • 본 논문에서는 비디오 압축에서 성능의 중요한 요소인 움직임 예측을 위한 고속 알고리즘을 제안한다. 기존의 고속 움직임 예측 방법들은 연산량 감축으로 인하여 프레임에 따라 심각한 예측화질 저하의 문제점과 여전히 많은 연산량의 문제점을 가지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 전영역 탐색기반의 방법에 비하여 예측화질은 거의 같게 유지하면서 불필요한 계산량을 현저히 줄이는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안하는 방법은 움직임 벡터의 확률분포를 이용하여 탐색영역을 중요도 별로 나누고 적응적인 매칭기준을 이용하여 예측화질은 유지하면서 불필요한 계산만을 줄일 수 있는 방법이다. 제안한 알고리즘은 기존의 전영역 탐색방법과 비교하여 예측 화질의 저하가 0.01dB 이하이며, 사용되는 계산량은 3~5%이내이다. 제안한 알고리즘은 MPEG-4 AVC 및 H.265를 이용하는 실시간 비디오 압축 응용분야에 유용하게 사용될 수 있다.

보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법 (Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation)

  • 권오병
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

Breast Cytology Diagnosis using a Hybrid Case-based Reasoning and Genetic Algorithms Approach

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지능정보시스템학회 2007년도 한국지능정보시스템학회
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2007
  • Case-based reasoning (CBR) is one of the most popular prediction techniques for medical diagnosis because it is easy to apply, has no possibility of overfitting, and provides a good explanation for the output. However, it has a critical limitation - its prediction performance is generally lower than other artificial intelligence techniques like artificial neural networks (ANNs). In order to obtain accurate results from CBR, effective retrieval and matching of useful prior cases for the problem is essential, but it is still a controversial issue to design a good matching and retrieval mechanism for CBR systems. In this study, we propose a novel approach to enhance the prediction performance of CBR. Our suggestion is the simultaneous optimization of feature weights, instance selection, and the number of neighbors that combine using genetic algorithms (GAs). Our model improves the prediction performance in three ways - (1) measuring similarity between cases more accurately by considering relative importance of each feature, (2) eliminating redundant or erroneous reference cases, and (3) combining several similar cases represent significant patterns. To validate the usefulness of our model, this study applied it to a real-world case for evaluating cytological features derived directly from a digital scan of breast fine needle aspirate (FNA) slides. Experimental results showed that the prediction accuracy of conventional CBR may be improved significantly by using our model. We also found that our proposed model outperformed all the other optimized models for CBR using GA.

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계산량 제어가 가능한 문턱치 기반 고속 움직임 예측 알고리즘 (Fast Motion Estimation Algorithm Based on Thresholds with Controllable Computation)

  • 김종남
    • 융합신호처리학회논문지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.84-90
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    • 2019
  • 비디오 압축을 위한 움직임 예측의 전 영역 탐색 및 무손실 방법의 많은 계산량은 고속 움직임 예측 알고리즘 개발을 이끌어 왔다. 여전히 계산량과 예측 화질의 적절한 제어가 필요하며, 본 논문에서는 전 영역 탐색 기반의 방법과 비교하여 예측 화질은 거의 유지하면서 효율적으로 계산량을 줄이고, 동시에 화질과 연산량 제어가 가능한 고속 움직임 예측 방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 부분 블록에러합과 각 단계별 최소 에러 위치 변동의 문턱치들을 이용하여, 각 후보 지점에 대하여 부분 블록 에러 합을 계산하고, 이를 일련의 문턱치들 적용하여 불가능한 후보들을 조기에 제거하고, 각 단계별 최소 에러 지점의 최적 후보의 불변동 횟수를 비교 판단하여 고속의 움직임 예측을 구현하며, 문턱치를 조절하여 화질과 연산량을 쉽게 제어한다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 단독으로 사용할 뿐만 아니라 기존의 고속 알고리즘들과 결합하여 사용해도 예측 화질 대비 우수한 연산량 감소를 얻을 수 있으며, 실험 결과에서 이를 검증한다.

심전도 신호를 이용한 일시적 허혈 예측 (Prediction of Transient Ischemia Using ECG Signals)

  • Han-Go Choi;Roger G. Mark
    • 융합신호처리학회논문지
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.190-197
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구는 신경망에 근거한 패턴매칭 방법을 사용하여 일시적 허혈 에피소드의 자동예측을 다루고 있다. 다층 신경망을 학습하기 위한 알고리즘은 수정된 역전파 알고리즘으로서 이 알고리즘은 학습속도를 향상시키기 위해 뉴런간의 연결계수 뿐만 아니라 뉴런내 비선형 함수의 변수들도 갱신한다. 제안된 방법의 성능은 MIT/BIH long-term 데이터베이스의 심전도(ECG) 신호를 사용하여 평가하였다. 총 15 레코드(237 허혈 에피소드)에 대한 실험결과에 의하면 허혈 에피소드 예측의 평균 sensitivity와 specificity 각각 85.71%와 71.11%이다. 또한 제안된 방법은 실제 허혈 에피소드로부터 평균 45.53초 이전에 예측하였다. 이러한 결과는 패턴매칭 분류기로서의 신경망 접근방법이 일시적 허혈 에피소드예측에 유용한 도구로 사용될 수 있음을 의미한다.

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