• 경영과학
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.41-61
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• 2006

This study is to propose a sales forecasting framework for new products in the prelaunch phase where no saies data are available. For the purpose we first develop an extended Bass model with the dynamic market potential and then propose an estimation method based on the market survey and scenario methodology. The proposed parameter estimation method is different from previous studies in that most of them have only Proposed the management judgments or analogies. We also apply the proposed model to satellite DMB market in Korea to verify the model.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제10권11호
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• pp.5455-5475
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• 2016

In this article, we model the distributed relay assignment network as a many-to-one matching market with peer effects. We discuss two scenarios for throughput optimization of relay networks: the scenario of aggregate throughput optimization and the scenario of fairness performance optimization. For the first scenario, we propose a Mutual Benefit-based Deferred Acceptance (MBDA) algorithm to increase the aggregate network throughput. For the second scenario, instead of using the alternative matching scheme, a non-substitution matching algorithm (NSA) is designed to solve the fairness problem. The NSA improves the fairness performance. We prove that both two algorithms converge to a globally stable matching, and discuss the practical implementation. Simulation results show that the performance of MBDA algorithm outperforms existing schemes and is almost the same with the optimal solution in terms of aggregate throughput. Meanwhile, the proposed NSA improves fairness as the scale of the relay network expands.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

The growth of the online market is accelerating due to the development of technology and the pandemic era. The delivery service through the courier must be used to deliver the ordered goods to the customer through the online market. With the growth of the online market, the logistics market for delivery is also growing. The traffic and environmental problems are emerging as social issues. Urban logistics technology using underground space based on the urban railway developed to improve logistics efficiency in a metropolitan area and a new alternative to environmental problems. This study proposed a plan to secure system safety through safety analysis based on operational concept definition and scenario analysis by applying model-based perspective analysis to the system under development.

• 에너지공학
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.33-42
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• 2012

본 연구에서는 MESSAGE를 이용하여 승용 부문의 중장기 온실가스 감축잠재량 전망을 위한 방법론과 그 결과를 제시하고 있다. 승용부문의 실질적인 온실가스 감축잠재량을 구하는 것이 아니라 가장 대표적인 중형차 부문의 4가지 차종인, 기존 내연기관차, 하이브리드, 플러그인 하이브리드, 전기차를 이용하여 2050년까지 시장점유율 변화를 알아는데 중점을 두었다. 승용 부문의 감축잠재량 분석을 위해 녹색위원회의 그린카 로드맵을 중심으로 한 BAU 시나리오, 그린카 보급을 강화하는 시나리오, 학습 곡선을 이용하여 학습률에 따른 차량 가격 시나리오, 그린카의 학습률을 강화하는 시나리오 등 4가지 시나리오를 구성하였다. 그린카 보급 강화 시나리오에서 2050년에는 BAU 시나리오 대비 13%의 배출량이 감소하였고, 학습률에 따른 차량 가격 시나리오 및 학습률 강화 시나리오에서는 14%의 배출량이 감소함을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국측량학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국측량학회 2007년도 춘계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.295-299
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• 2007

Today, ubiquitous technology (e.g. computers or networked devices pervade everywhere we are) has enlarged by great advancement of information and communication technologies. If ubiquitous technologies is applied to, innovation of spatial information technology is expected. traditional spatial information technologies such as survey, GIS, GPS, LBS, and RS and ubiquitous technology gradual1y have been converged. The aim of this study is to create shared visions in spatial information technologies by scenario based roadmapping. So, we surveyed the state of the art in main spatial information technologies, market status and patent map. Consequently, prospects of spatial information technologies is suggested. The aim of 1st and 2nd NGIS project focused on map supplier was to develop digital map(e.g. framework data, various thematic map). As a result, the best technology of digital mapping is achieved in the world. But, there is not enough to develop GIS and LBS solution. Current market in GIS S/W and Telematics is about 384billon won and 250billion won. a patent is applied in the order, like a USA(1571case, 47%), Japan(883case, 26%), EU(478case, 14%), Korea(446case, 13%). In the future, spatial information technology fused on ubiquitous technology will be focused on user's demand and developing convenience context. The developing target will be realtime monitoring of 3D spatial data based on high resolution coordinate system, sharing and supplying multi-sensor data considered users demand, location service by ubiquitous technologies.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제31권6호
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• pp.605-613
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• 2020

In July and October of this year, the government announced the 'Green new deal plan within the Korean new deal policy' and 'Strategies for proliferation of future vehicles and market preoccupation'. And, in response to changes in the global climate agreement, it has decided to expand green mobility such as electric vehicles and hydrogen electric vehicles with the aim of a "net-zero" society. Accordingly, the goal is to build 310 hydrogen refueling stations along with the supply of 60,000 hydrogen vehicles in 2022, and the hydrogen infrastructure is being expanded. however, it is difficult to secure hydrogen infrastructure due to expensive construction costs and difficulty the selection of a site. In Korea, it is possible to build a mobile hydrogen station according to the safety standards covering special case of the Ministry of Industry. Since the mobile hydrogen station can be charged while moving between authorized place, it has the advantage of being able to meet a large number of demands with only one hydrogen refueling station, so it is proposed as a model suitable for the early market of hydrogen infrastructure. This study demonstrates the establishment of a hydrogen refueling station by deriving a virtual accident scenario for leakage and catastrupture for each facility for the risk factors in a mobile hydrogen station, and performing a quantitative risk assessment through the derived scenario. Through the virtual accident scenario, direction of demonstration and implications for the construction of a mobile hydrogen refueling station were derived.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.67-99
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• 2019

This paper, focusing on the renewable portfolio standard (RPS), evaluates alternative renewable energy policies. We propose a tractable equilibrium model which provides a structural representation of Korea's electricity market, including its energy settlement system and renewable energy certificate (REC) transactions. Arbitrage conditions are used to define the core value of REC prices to identify relevant competitive equilibrium conditions. The model considers R&D investments and learning effects that may affect the development of renewable energy technologies. The model is parameterized to represent the baseline scenario under the currently scheduled RPS reinforcement for a 20% share of renewable generation, and then simulated for alternative scenarios. The result shows that the reinforcement of the RPS leads to higher welfare compared to weakening it as well as repealing it, though there remains room to enhance welfare. It turns out that subsidies are welfare-inferior to the RPS due to financial burdens and that reducing nuclear power generation from the baseline yields lower welfare by worsening environmental externalities.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.173-204
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• 2012

본고는 산출물시장이 과점적이고 동질적 상품이 거래되어 기업들이 생산량 경쟁을 하고 배출권시장은 완전경쟁적일 경우, 기업이 지출하는 저감투자량의 적절성을 이론적으로 분석한다. 산출물시장이 완전경쟁적일 때와는 달리 저감투자는 직접적으로 배출비용을 줄이는 효과 이외에 다른 기업의 산출물을 줄이는 간접적 효과를 발생시킨다. 균형하에서의 저감투자량은 사회적으로 최적인 저감투자량에 비해 생산량 대비 과잉투자를 야기하여 투자배분을 왜곡한다. 본고는 또한 불완전경쟁시장이 배출권 거래제도하에서 발생시킬 수 있는 비효율성의 제반 요인들을 검토하고 정책적 시사점을 제시한다.

• 한국조리학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.141-152
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• 2016

Recently, not only development of curriculum associated directly with job, the development of new education model is in great need. So, the purpose of this study is to develop the instructional design guideline utilizing goal-based scenario(GBS) for college students who major in culinary arts. First, to achieve this goal, we recognized the 7 core elements(learning goal, mission, cover story, role activity, scenario operating, resource, feedback) composing GBS through literature review and case study. Second, we drew a conclusion about the problem and guideline for traditional culinary practice course by conducting inspection about culinary practice environment and needs with professors who are teaching culinary arts. Third, we applied the instructional design guideline for culinary practice to regular classes according to GBS's factors, and then we did formative evaluation with content experts and educational technology expert. Finally, we designed the final instructional design guideline for culinary practice by modifying early model reflected the result of formative evaluation. The results of this study are as following. First, when we applied GBS to culinary practice, professors have to focus on process of materialization by developing easy scenario to students. Also, they have to prepare the class circumstance to feel about sense of realism in advance. Second, to give a conjugally new skill at working, professors's effort is important. culinary practice education at college has responsibility to carry out the vocational training that has competitiveness and difference with labor market's needs. Therefore, it is necessary for us to develop the teaching and learning model for culinary practice which is suitable for major based on the manpower demand for industry without causing job mismatch from demand for industry.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.187-194
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• 2019

본 연구는 산업정책 및 기업전략의 개발 및 적용에 활용될 수 있는 브레인 임플란트 산업의 장기 미래 시나리오 모델개발 및 시나리오별 대응전략을 개발하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 삼았다. 뇌과학 산업은 미래 핵심 산업으로 그 가능성에 대하여서는 많은 논의가 있었지만 구체적인 산업육성정책이나 기업전략 분야는 연구가 매우 부족한 실정이다. 이는 이 분야가 아직 산업육성정책이나 기업전략을 작성하기에 필요한 정보가 축적되지 못하였기 때문이다. 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 뇌과학산업의 핵심영역으로 많은 불확실성이 존재하는 브레인 임플란트 산업에 대하여 시스템 다이내믹스 모델로 미래 시나리오를 작성하고 이를 기반으로 각각의 시나리오에 적합한 전략을 제시하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 뇌과학산업 육성 정책 입안 및 개별 기업에서의 전략개발에 주요한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 향후 글로벌 시장 상황이 어느 시나리오로 발전하는 지를 조기에 파악할 수 있는 신호에 관한 연구의 필요성이 제기된다.