The Bass model assumes two communication channels: mass-media and word-of-mouth. In this paper, we call the mass-media Type I channel of communications. The word-of-mouth channel means interaction between non-adopters and adopters. Let us call it Type II channel of communications. In the real world, however, the non-adopters who are not aware of the innovation can be affected by communications with other non-adopters who are aware of it. Let us call it Type III channel of communications to differentiate with Type II channel. This paper analyzes the impact of Type III channel on diffusion process. The result shows that exponential growth patterns (for example, the adoption patterns of the blockbuster movies) can be observed when non-adopters are influenced by other non-adopters who aware of the innovation.
Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
/
v.61
no.4
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pp.208-215
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2024
The Sortie Generation Rate (SGR), which measures the number of sorties that an airbase can produce per unit of time, is crucial for assessing operational capacity. However, the unique spatial and environmental constraints on aircraft carriers complicate the direct application of land-based SGR studies to maritime settings. This study introduces a framework for analyzing the Sortie Generation Process (SGP) on aircraft carriers, using discrete event simulation adapted to these constraints. This approach conceptualizes the SGP similar to a logistics and production system, wherein sorties are systematically generated through the operations of the aircraft. The proposed framework defines and implements the necessary simulation functions with the discrete event simulation method for the purpose of SGP analysis. Through a series of experiments, this study demonstrates the framework's effectiveness and its practical applicability to aircraft carrier operations, potentially enhancing sortie generation capabilities in naval aviation.
Following the introduction of containerized sea transportation, the size of container ships has progressively increased. While the primary objective of this enlargement is to achieve economies of scale, it significantly affects the operational environment of ports where these ships dock, raising concerns about the validity of efficiency gains from ultra large container vessels from a port operational perspective. This study evaluates the efficiency of various ship sizes from January to December 2022, utilizing internal data from the container terminals A and B located in the Busan New Port. The analysis encompasses ships affiliated with The Alliance at Container Terminal A and those associated with 2M at Container Terminal B. Key input variables considered for the study include ship size (TEU), total berth time, and loading/unloading time, with cargo handling performance serving as the only output variable. The findings indicate that larger ship sizes exhibit higher efficiency compared to smaller container ships.
Declaration of Air Defense and Identification Zones started with the United States in 1950, which was followed by declaration of KADIZ by the Republic of Korea in 1951. Initial ADIZ were solely linked with air defense missions, but their roles have changed as nations around the globe manifested a tendency to expand their influence over maritime resources and rights. In particular, China declared ADIZ over the East China Sea in October 2013 and forced all passing aircraft to submit flight plan to ATC or military authority, saying failure of submission will be followed by armed engagement. China announced it would declare another zone over the South China Sea despite the ongoing conflict in the area, clearly showing ADIZ's direct connection with territorial claim and EEZ and that it serves as a zone within which a nation can execute its rights. The expanded KADIZ, which was expanded in Dec 15, 2013 in response to Chinese actions, overlaps with the Chinese ADIZ over the East China Sea and the Japanese ADIZ. The overlapping zone is an airspace over waters where not only the Republic of Korea but also of China and Japan argue to be covering their continental shelf and EEZ. Military conventions were signed to prevent contingencies among the neighboring nations while conducting identifications in KADIZ, including the overlapping zone. If such military conventions and practice of air defense identification continue to be respected among states, it is under the process of turning into a regional customary law, although ADIZ is not yet recognized by international law or customary law. Moreover, identification within ADIZ is carried out by military authorities of states, and misguided customary procedures may cause serious negative consequences for national security since it may negatively impact neighboring countries in marking the maritime border, which calls for formulation of operation rules that account for other state activities and military talks among regional stake holders. Legal frameworks need to be in place to guarantee freedom of flights over international seas which UN Maritime Law protects, and laws regarding military aircraft operation need to be supplemented to not make it a requirement to submit flight plan if the aircraft does not invade sovereign airspace. Organizational instructions that require approval of Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff for entrance and exit of ADIZ for military aircraft need to be amended to change the authority to Minister of National Defense or be promoted to a law to be applicable for commercial aircraft. Moreover, in regards to operation and management of ADIZ, transfer of authority should be prohibited to account for its evolution into a regional customary law in South East Asia. In particular, since ADIZ is set over EEZ, military conventions that yield authority related to national security should never be condoned. Among Korea, China, Japan and Russia, there are military conventions that discuss operation and management of ADIZ in place or under negotiation, meaning that ADIZ is becoming a regional customary law in North East Asia region.
Over the past 20 years, Korea's overall import and export cargo volume has increased at an average annual rate of approximately 5.3%. About 99% of the cargo is still being transported by sea. Due to recent increases in maritime cargo volume, congestion in maritime logistics has become challenging due to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts. Continuous monitoring of ports has become crucial. Various ground observation systems and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data have been utilized for monitoring ports and conducting numerous preliminary studies for the efficient operation of container terminals and cargo volume prediction. However, small and developing countries' ports face difficulties in monitoring due to environmental issues and aging infrastructure compared to large ports. Recently, with the increasing utility of artificial satellites, preliminary studies have been conducted using satellite imagery for continuous maritime cargo data collection and establishing ocean monitoring systems in vast and hard-to-reach areas. This study aims to visually detect ships docked at berths in the Busan New Port using high-resolution satellite imagery and quantitatively evaluate berth utilization rates. By utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery from Compact Advanced Satellite 500-1 (CAS500-1), Korea Multi-Purpose satellite-3 (KOMPSAT-3), PlanetScope, and Sentinel-2A, ships docked within the port berths were visually detected. The berth utilization rate was calculated using the total number of ships that could be docked at the berths. The results showed variations in berth utilization rates on June 2, 2022, with values of 0.67, 0.7, and 0.59, indicating fluctuations based on the time of satellite image capture. On June 3, 2022, the value remained at 0.7, signifying a consistent berth utilization rate despite changes in ship types. A higher berth utilization rate indicates active operations at the berth. This information can assist in basic planning for new ship operation schedules, as congested berths can lead to longer waiting times for ships in anchorages, potentially resulting in increased freight rates. The duration of operations at berths can vary from several hours to several days. The results of calculating changes in ships at berths based on differences in satellite image capture times, even with a time difference of 4 minutes and 49 seconds, demonstrated variations in ship presence. With short observation intervals and the utilization of high-resolution satellite imagery, continuous monitoring within ports can be achieved. Additionally, utilizing satellite imagery to monitor changes in ships at berths in minute increments could prove useful for small and developing country ports where harbor management is not well-established, offering valuable insights and solutions.
Shin, Chang-Hoon;Lee, Ji-Won;Yang, Han-Na;Choi, Il Young
Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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v.18
no.4
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pp.19-42
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2012
Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.
With rapid growing of the Northeastern Asia, the interest for the connection of Infrastructure that was behind of interesting until now is getting larger. In a line of same connection, UN-ESCAP are forwarding transcontinental railway project, asian highway project et al.. And this study aimed at analysis on the effect that extended to a space by Korea-Japan undersea tunnel project. In aspect of a national land balanced-development to solve various problems such as overcrowding in capital region, unbalanced state by regions, weak exchange between South and North Korea, and weakness of national land basis to prepare for unification et al., this study consulted the economic potentiality model as a analysis method to examine an effect. In this analysis, I used 24 scenarios including all cases by combination of 3 scenarios for Korea-Japan undersea tunnel, 4 scenarios for transportation modes in the section of undersea tunnel, and 2 scenarios for adjacency infrastructure. Transportation modes in the section of undersea tunnel are railway, car-train, mixing way of railway and car-train, and mixing way of road and railway. Adjacency infrastructure applied railway and road. In all scenarios, Korea showed higher growth potentiality than Japan. Also, proposal plan C route relatively showed better in national land balanced-development than other proposal plans. The growth potentiality relatively appeared higher by buildup of a connection together with non-capital regions from the construction of Korea-Japan undersea tunnel. In aspect of Northeastern Asia, it resulted in a increasing of trade and chance of network formation in the region of Asia through infrastructure connection. But, in considering passenger and various factors that extended to the economic growth, this analysis have some limitation. Therefore, I hope that deep studies will continuously perform with various factors.
In this study, a gate simulation model was developed to reduce the truck waiting time for trucking companies servicing container terminals. To verify the developed model, 4 weeks of truck gate-in/gate-out data was collected in December 2014 at the Port of Busan New Port. Also, the existing gate system was compared to the proposed gate system using the developed simulation model. The result showed that based on East gate-in, a maximum number of 50 waiting trucks with a maximum waiting time of 120 minutes. With the proposed system the maximum number of waiting trucks was 10 with a maximum waiting time of 5.3 minutes. Based on West gate-in, the maximum number of waiting trucks was 17 and the maximum waiting time was 34 minutes in the existing gate system. With the proposed system the maximum number of waiting trucks was 10 with a maximum waiting time of 5.3 minutes. Based on West gate-out, the maximum number of waiting trucks was 11 with a maximum waiting time of 5.5 minutes. With the proposed system the maximum number of waiting trucks was 9 with a maximum waiting time of 4.4 minutes. This developed model shows how many waiting trucks there are, depending on the gate-in/gate-out time of each truck. This system can be used to find optimal gate system operating standards by assuming and adjusting the gate-in/gate-out time of each truck in different situations.
More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.
A trade logistic informatization system under Open Systems Interconnection(OSI) includes a Port Management Information System, a Maritime Information System, and an Export and Import Batch Processing System. These have made a great contribution in the creation of more convenient and efficient management for the logistics industries in our country. However, this management is exposed to the technological problems of networks due to the explosive use in the sending and receiving of e-documents. For our country to grow as a center for port and logistic information, we should make the best use of the control systems using networks and further advance the export and import logistic systems. Therefore, this study aims to propose management systems for a composite network and an invasion detection system for efficient management of an e-trade network under OSI. Methods to rationalize the internal organizations such as coordination of organizations and human resources according to alloted network functions, commissions and arbitrary decisions, and reorganization of relevant regulations are not discussed here. This study looked at trade network under OSI from the aspect of practical business affairs and presented a basis for further interpretation.
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