• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.3A no.1
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• pp.35-41
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• 2003

To ensure resource adequacy in restructured electricity markets, policymakers have adopted installed capacity (ICAP) markets in some regions of the United States. These markets ensure that adequate generation exists to satisfy regional Loss of Load Probability(LOLP) criterion. Since the incentives created through ICAP mechanisms directly impact new generation and transmission investment decisions we examine one important factor that links ICAP markets with LOLP calculations;, determining the amount of ICAP credit assigned to particular generation units. First, we review and critique the literature on electric power systems' market failure resulting from demand exceeding supply. We then summarize the method of computing (the LOLP) as a means of assessing reliability and relate this method to ICAP markets. We find that only the expected value of available generation is used In current ICAP markets while ignoring the second and higher order moments, which tends to mis-state the ICAP value of a specific resource. We then consider a proposal whose purpose is to avoid this ICAP assignment issue by switching from ICAP obligations to options. We find that such a proposal may fail to not provide the benefits claimed and suffers from several practical difficulties. Finally, we conclude with some policy recommendations and areas for future research.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.4A no.2
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• pp.100-105
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• 2004

Installed capacity markets in the northeast of the United States ensure that adequate generation exists to satisfy regional loss of load probability (LOLP) criterion. LOLP studies are conducted to determine the amount of capacity that is needed, but they do not consider several factors that substantially affect the calculated distribution of available capacity. These studies do not account for the fact that generation availability increases during periods of high demand and therefore prices, common-cause failures that result in multiple generation units being unavailable at the same time, and the negative correlation between load and available capacity due to temperature and humidity. A categorization of incidents in an existing bulk power reliability database is proposed to analyze the existence and frequency of independent failures and those associated with resource dynamics. Findings are augmented with other empirical findings. Monte Carlo methods are proposed to model these resource dynamics. Using the IEEE Reliability Test System as a single-bus case study, the LOLP results change substantially when these factors are considered. Better data collection is necessary to support the more comprehensive modeling of resource adequacy that is proposed. In addition, a parallel processing method is used to offset the increase in computational times required to model these dynamics.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.264-265
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• 2006

국내계통의 적정설비예비율은 현재까지 정부에서 제시하고 있는 일정 LOLP(Loss of Load Probability)기준 0.5(일/년)을 역으로 환산하여 결정되어진다. 그런데 현재의 LOLP의 산출은 시간별 부하변동특성을 반영하지 못하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 국내 장기전원계획시 사용하고 있는 최적전산모형(WASP)의 이러한 단점을 최대한 극복할 수 있도록 분기를 조절하고 기존의 방법과는 다른 O&M cost 분류를 적용하석 각각의 결과에 따른 분석과 이러한 특성을 반영했을 경우 년도 별로 환산된 일정 신뢰도 기준하의 필요 설비예비율의 사례를 분석하였다.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1997.11a
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• pp.221-223
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• 1997

This paper presents the Simplified Simulation Technique that evaluates the adequacy of an electric power system using only a portion of the outage period instead of each hour. Reliability evaluation may be performed at various hierarchical levels, generation, transmission and distribution system. The Simplified Simulation Technique simplifies the adequacy evaluation process reducing the number of calculations considerably. Therefore the computation time can be significantly reduced. This paper is done to compare the results of the simulation model with the Simplified Simulation Technique against the results of the simulation model without the Simplified Simulation Technique. The reliability indices such as the Loss of Load Probability(LOLP), the loss of load frequency(LOLF), the average duration of load curtailment(DLC) and the average demand of load curtailment(ADLC) are calculated. The proposed methods and procedures are tested by using the IEEE-RTS with 24-bus system.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.89-95
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• 1998

Maintenance scheduling of generators plays an important role in evaluating supply reliability of power systems. Since generators must be maintained and inspected, the generation planner must schedule planned outages during the year. Several factors entering into this scheduling analysis include: seasonal load-demand profile, amount of maintenance, size of the units, elapsed time from last maintenance, and availability of maintenance crew. This paper proposes a new maintenance scheduling algorithm for the alternatives of long-term generation expansion planning by using LOLP levelization method which is known as an effective method for the generator's maintenance scheduling. To get the best supply reliability of power systems, we change the maintenance period to levelize the reliability over all period. The proposed algorithm is applied to a real size power system and the better reliability results are obtained.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.348-350
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• 2008

본 논문의 목표는 한국 전력에서 의뢰한 용량 과제를 리뷰하기 위한 것이다. 한국 전력은 현재 책정된 용량 가격(CP)을 최적화하려고 한다. 이러한 과정에서 한국 전력과 발전사들 간에 논란이 있었다. 우리 연구팀은 중립적인 입장에서 한국 계통의 안정성에 초점을 맞추어 연구를 진행하였다. 본 리뷰에서 다룬 내용은 한국 계통의 적정 설비 예비율을 구하기 위해, Loss of Load Probability-이하 LOLP를 산출하는 과정을 시뮬레이션을 통해 보여주는 것이다. 더 정확한 결과를 산출하기 위해 2007년 실제부하 및 설비 용량 자료가 사용되었다. 또한 본 연구에서 진행된 여러 가지 과제 수행 단계 중, 본 논문은 2번째 단계인 적정 설비 예비율을 12${\sim}$15%로 하향시킬 가능성을 찾는 연구를 설명한다. 한국 전력 계통의 안정성 모델을 만들고, 그 모델을 사용하여 기존 LOLP에 맞는 적정 설비 예비율을 찾는다.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1991.07a
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• pp.402-405
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• 1991

This paper represents a new method for computing reliability indices by using Large Deviation method which is one of the probabilistic production cost simulations. The reliability measures are based on the models used for the loads and for the generating unit failure states. In computing these measures it has been tacitly assumed that the values of all parameters in the models are precisely known. In fact, however, some of these values must often be chosen with a considerable degree of uncertainty involved. This is particularly true for the forecast peak loads in the load model, where there is an inherent uncertainty in the method of forecasting, which are frequently based on insufficient statistics. In this paper, the effect of load forecasting uncertainty on the LOLP(Loss of Load Probability), is investigated. By applying the Large Deviation method to the IEEE Rilability Test System, it is verified that the proposed method is generally very accurate and very fast for computing system reliability indices.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.341-348
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• 1990

This paper describes an algorithm for evaluating the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and calculating the production cost for all the generators in the system using Fast Hartley Transform (FHT). It also suggests the deconvolution procedure which is necessary for the generation expansion planning. The FHT is as fast as or faster than the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and serves for all the uses such as spectral, digital processing, and convolution to which the FFT is normally applied. The transformed function using FFT has complex numbers. However, the transformed function using FHT has real numbers and the convolution become quite simple. This method has been applied for the IEEE reliability test system and practical size model system. The test results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.117-134
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• 2000

Pubilc utility industries including the electric utility industry are facing a new stream of privatization com-petition with the private sector and deregulation. The necewssity to solve now and in the future power supply and demand problems has been increasing through the sophisticated generation expansion plan(GEP) approach con-sidering not only KEPCo's supply-side resources but also outside resources such as non-utility generation(NUG) demand-side management (DSM). Under the environmental situation in the current electric utility industry a new approach is needed to acquire multiple resources competitively. This study presents the development of a modified electric generation expansion analysis system(EGEAS) model with avoided cost based on the existing EGEAS model which is a dynamic program to develope an optimal generation expansion plan for the electric utility. We are trying to find optimal GEP in Korea's case using our modified model and observe the difference for the level of reliabilities such as the reserve margin(RM) loss of load probability(LOLP) and expected unserved energy percent(EUEP) between the existing EGEAS model and our model. In addition we are trying to calculate avoided cost for NUG resources which is a criterion to evaluate herem and test possibility of connection calculation of avoided cost with GEP implementation using our modified model. The results of our case study are as follows. First we were able to find that the generation expansion plan and reliability measures were largely influenced by capacity size and loading status of NUG resources, Second we were able to find that avoided cost which are criteria to evaluate NUG resources could be calculated by using our modified EGEAS model with avoided cost. We also note that avoided costs were calculated by our model in connection with generation expansion plans.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.117-117
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• 1992

Pubilc utility industries including the electric utility industry are facing a new stream of privatization com-petition with the private sector and deregulation. The necewssity to solve now and in the future power supply and demand problems has been increasing through the sophisticated generation expansion plan(GEP) approach con-sidering not only KEPCo's supply-side resources but also outside resources such as non-utility generation(NUG) demand-side management (DSM). Under the environmental situation in the current electric utility industry a new approach is needed to acquire multiple resources competitively. This study presents the development of a modified electric generation expansion analysis system(EGEAS) model with avoided cost based on the existing EGEAS model which is a dynamic program to develope an optimal generation expansion plan for the electric utility. We are trying to find optimal GEP in Korea's case using our modified model and observe the difference for the level of reliabilities such as the reserve margin(RM) loss of load probability(LOLP) and expected unserved energy percent(EUEP) between the existing EGEAS model and our model. In addition we are trying to calculate avoided cost for NUG resources which is a criterion to evaluate herem and test possibility of connection calculation of avoided cost with GEP implementation using our modified model. The results of our case study are as follows. First we were able to find that the generation expansion plan and reliability measures were largely influenced by capacity size and loading status of NUG resources, Second we were able to find that avoided cost which are criteria to evaluate NUG resources could be calculated by using our modified EGEAS model with avoided cost. We also note that avoided costs were calculated by our model in connection with generation expansion plans.