• Title/Summary/Keyword: loss estimation

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Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

Estimation of POC Export Fluxes Using 234Th/238U Disequilibria in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica; Preliminary Result (남극 아문젠해에서 234Th/238U 비평형법을 사용한 유광대에서 심층으로의 입자상 유기탄소 침강플럭스 추정; 예비결과)

  • Kim, Mi Seon;Choi, Man Sik;Lee, Sang Heon;Lee, Sang Hoon;Rhee, Tae Siek;Hahm, Doshik
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2014
  • In order to understand the carbon cycle in the Amundsen Sea of the Southern Ocean, the export fluxes of particulate organic carbon from the euphotic zone to deep water estimated using ${\psi}$/${\psi}$ disequilibrium method. Seawaters in 14 water columns were collected during February and March 2012, and analyzed for total and dissolved ${\psi}$, and particulate organic carbon. Total ${\psi}$ activities in the water column showed deficiency and excess relative to those of ${\psi}$ depending on the water depth. Deficiency of total ${\psi}$ in the euphotic zone showed mirror images both with chlorophyll-a and fluorescence, and was consistent with the loss of nitrate, which indicated the effect of biological activity. In addition, deficiency of total ${\psi}$ from deep water was associated with the increase of total dissolvable Fe/Mn concentration. Excess total ${\psi}$ activity presented below the euphotic zone might be related to particulate ${\psi}$ concentrated in this water depth. Mean export flux of ${\psi}$ estimated using the steady state model was $867{\pm}246dpmm^{-2}day^{-1}$. Mean export flux of particulate organic carbon, which were estimated by the product of total ${\psi}$ flux and ratio of POC/${\psi}$ ($7.08{\pm}4.27{\mu}molCdpm^{-1}$) in the sinking particles, was $5.9{\pm}3.9mmolCm^{-2}day^{-1}$. These fluxes were similar levels to those in the Weddell Sea during February and March 2008. Export ratios (ThE) relative to the primary production in the euphotic zone were in the range of 3-54% (av. 28%).

Economic Loss Estimation of Mt. Baekdu Eruption Scenarios (백두산 화산 분화 시나리오에 따른 경제적 손실 평가)

  • Yu, Soonyoung;Lee, Yun-Jung;Yoon, Seong-Min;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.205-217
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    • 2014
  • As Mt. Backdu is expected to erupt, the social and economic impacts of the eruption on the Korean peninsula as well as on the world become a research topic of interest. If the volcano erupts, South Korea can be directly impacted by volcanic ash, which will bring out secondary damages in various ways. Given that the direct damage is a basis to estimate indirect and secondary damages, this paper was to review a method to estimate direct damages, called catastrophe risk models, and estimate the direct damages of available eruption scenarios of Mt. Baekdu. Based on the results, the damages by volcanic ash will occur mostly around Gangwon province if the Mt. Backdu erupts. Thus the inventory lists and their damage functions of Gangwon provinces were collected. In particular agricultural and forestry products were surveyed based on the land use. Direct damages were estimated using volcanic ash distribution of eruption scenarios, inventory information and their damage functions. In result, a scenario in winter caused the damage of 299.8 billion KRW (20.4% of total agricultural production in 2010) and 28.9 billion KRW (9.0% of total forestry production in 2010) in agriculture and forestry, respectively. The damages in agriculture was larger, and it is due to the damage functions which show the agricultural products are more vulnerable to volcanic ash than forestry products. Also the agricultural production (1,471.7 billion KRW in 2010) are more than 4.5 times the forestry production (322.3 billion KRW in 2010) in Gangwon province. Inje and Gangnung had the most damages in the scenario in winter. Inje had the most damage due to the thick ash deposit (8.5 mm in average) despite the low production. On the other hand, Goseong had a low damage compared to the ash thickness larger than 20mm, owing to the low production. The direct damage estimated through this process can be used to estimate indirect damages.

Mortality Change of North Korean People and its Association with State Production and Welfare System (경제 위기 전후 북한 주민의 사망률 동태의 특성과 변화)

  • Park, Keong-Suk
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.101-130
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    • 2012
  • This study examines mortality change in North Korea and its association with state production and welfare systems. Two main subjects are analyzed. The first theme is to examine the reliability of mortality related data released by North Korea government authorities. Examining inner consistencies among mortality related statistics and comparing with mortality trends in other socialist societies, the study finds that mortality rate was under estimated. Under-estimation of mortality by North Korean authorities is regarded to result not only from political purpose which aims to propagate the regime's superiority but also from enumeration errors of vital statistics based on the residence registration. The second theme is to estimate the change in mortality of North Korean people since the establishment of DPRK, correcting errors of mortality data. Mortality of North Korean people is estimated to have improved largely by the early 1970s, to have been sluggish hereafter, and finally to have increased during the economic hardship period between 1993 and 2008. While large people died during the food crisis in the late 1990s, however the population loss caused by mortality increase was not so great as the proposition of the huge starvation was expected. It is partly because population turbulence occurred not just by mortality increase, rather it has progressed in the joint effects of fertility decline and exodus of North Korean people for food. It is also due to North Korean people's voluntary activities of informal economy. It is also worth noting the high mortality rate of North Korean men. The high mortality of North Korean men is likely due to men's mobilization for long time in army and labor with high risk of accident and their life styles.

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A Study on The Content of Liver Protein, Nucleic Acids, and Guanine Deaminase Activity of Mouse During Acute Starvation (급성(急性) 기아(饑餓)마우스의 간단백질(肝蛋白質), 핵산(核酸) 및 Guanine Deaminase 활성(活性)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Seung-Hee;Kim, Seung-Won
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.107-115
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    • 1968
  • Number of aspects, not only nutritional but social as well as political involved in human starvation pose nowadays global problems. In order to help establish the minimum nutritional requirements in the daily life of a man and to free people as well from either undernourishment, malnutrition or even starvation many workers have devoted themselves so far on the research programs to know what and how number of metabolic events take place in animals in vivo. It is the purpose of the present paper to examine in effect to what extent both of the protein and nucleic acids (DNA & RNA) together with an enzyme, guanine deaminase, which converts guanine into xanthine and in turn ends up to uric acid as an end product, undergo changes, quantitatively during acute starvation, using the mouse as an experimental animal. The mouse was strictly inhibited from taking foods except drinking water ad libitum and was sacriflced 24, 48, and 72 hours following starvation thus acutely induced. The animals consisted of two experimental groups, one control and another starvation groups, each being consisted of 6-24 mice of whose body weights ranged in the vicinity of 10 g. The animals were sacriflced by a blow on the head, followed by immediate excision of their livers into ice-cold distilled water, washing adherent blood and other contaminant tissues. The liver was minced foramin, by an all-glass homogenizer immersing it in an ice-bath, followed by subsequent fractionatin of the homogenate (10% W/V in 0.25M sucrose solution made up with 0.05M phosphate buffer of pH 7.4). For the liver protein and guanine deaminase assay, the 10% homogenate was centrifuged at 600 x g for 10 minutes to eliminate the nuclear fraction; and for the estimation of DNA and RNA, the homogenate was prepared by the addition of 10% trichloroacetic acid in order to free the homogenate from the acid-soluble fraction, the remaining residue being delipidate by the addition of alcohol and dried in vacuo for later KOH (IN) hydrolysis. The changes in body and liver wegihts during acute starvation were checked gravimetrically. Protein contents in the liver were monitored by the method of Lowry et al; and guanine deaminase activities were followed by the assay of liberated ammonia from the substrate utilizing the Caraway's colorimetry. The extraction of both DNA and RNA was performed by the Schmidt-Thannhauser's method, which was followed by Marmur's method of purification for DNA and by Chargaff's method of purification for RNA. The determinations of both DNA and RNA were carried out by the diphenylamine reaction for the former and by the orcinol reaction for the latter. The following resume was the results of the present work. 1. It was observed that the body as well as liver weights fall abruptly during starvation, and that the loss of body weight showed no statistical correlation with the decreases in the content of liver protein. 2. The content of liver protein and activity of liver guanine deaminase activity as well decline dramatically, and the specific activities of the enzyme (activity/protein), however, decreased gradually as starvation proceeded. 3. Both of the nucleic acids, DNA and RNA, showed decrements in the liver of mouse during acute starvation; the latter, however, being more striking in the decline as compared to the former. 4. The decreases in the liver protein content as resulted from the acute starvation had no statistically significant correlation with the decrements of DNA in the same tissue, but had regressed with a significant statistical correlation with the fall of RNA in the tissue. 5. The decrease in the activity of guanine deaminase in the liver of mouse during acute starvation was functionally more proportional to the decrease in RNA than DNA, and moreover correlated with the changes in the content of the liver protein. 6. The possible mechanisms involved during in this acute starvation as bring the decreases in the contents of DNA, protein, and guanine deaminase were discussed briefly.

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Genetic Correlation of Carcass and Meat Production Traits with Hormones and Metabolic Components in Hawoo (가축의 혈청 호르몬 및 대사물질 농도와 도체 및 산육형질에 대한 유전상관에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon G. J.;Juong H. Y.;Cho K. H.;Kim M. J.;Kim I. C.;Kim J. B.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.255-269
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    • 2005
  • This study was aimed to investigate genetic relationships, variables, and correlations between economic traits and metabolic materials in serum components according to bleeding periods and breeding locations for the castrated and not castrated Hanwoo cattle at National Livestock Research Institute. Analysis of variance for serum hormones and metabolic materials showed significant differences by breeding locations except for testosterone and globulin. Statistical differences for serum components were detected by birth year except for cortisol, total protein, globulin and creatinine, and by castration except for total protein and BUN. All the serum components were tended to have sire effects except for testosterone resulting in some degree of additive gene actions. Breeding locations showed statistical significances for carcass weight and back fat thickness, but not in carcass rate, KPH, live weight and transportation weight loss. Effects of breeding locations and castration were significant for all weight measurement periods except for 9 month and 6 month, respectively. A significant sire effect was observed in all weight measurements. Least squared means for concentration of serum components by breeding year, season and castration were not significant. High concentration of cortisol, creatinine and triglyceride and low concentration of IGF-1 and glucose were detected in castrated cattle. Concentration of testosterone with castrated cattle was $5.2\%$ corresponding to non castrated cattle. Estimation of heritabilities of serum components using a sire model with restricted maximum likelihood were ranged 0.07 to 0.58. High heritabilities were estimated for total protein, albumin, globulin, cortisol, creatinine and BUN were 0.53, 0.54, 0.42, 0.45, 0.58 and 0.54, respectively. Low heritabilities were estimated fur calcium, testosterone and IGF-1 for 0.07, 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. Heritabilities for carcass weight, back fat thickness, meat yield index, KPH, and IMF were estimated as 0.39, 0.45, 0.30 0.13, and 0.93. Heritabilities of weights on 18, 12, 9, 6, and 24 month were estimated as 0.78, 0.76, 0.62, 0.58 and 0.58. Estimated heritabilities for average daily gain on 6${\~}$2, 12${\~}$18, and 18${\~}$24 month were 0.80, 0.75 and 0.19, respectively.

Methods for Genetic Parameter Estimations of Carcass Weight, Longissimus Muscle Area and Marbling Score in Korean Cattle (한우의 도체중, 배장근단면적 및 근내지방도의 유전모수 추정방법)

  • Lee, D.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2004
  • This study is to investigate the amount of biased estimates for heritability and genetic correlation according to data structure on marbling scores in Korean cattle. Breeding population with 5 generations were simulated by way of selection for carcass weight, Longissimus muscle area and latent values of marbling scores and random mating. Latent variables of marbling scores were categorized into five by the thresholds of 0, I, 2, and 3 SD(DSI) or seven by the thresholds of -2, -1, 0,1I, 2, and 3 SD(DS2). Variance components and genetic pararneters(Heritabilities and Genetic correlations) were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood on multivariate linear mixed animal models and by Gibbs sampling algorithms on multivariate threshold mixed animal models in DS1 and DS2. Simulation was performed for 10 replicates and averages and empirical standard deviation were calculated. Using REML, heritabilitis of marbling score were under-estimated as 0.315 and 0.462 on DS1 and DS2, respectively, with comparison of the pararneter(0.500). Otherwise, using Gibbs sampling in the multivariate threshold animal models, these estimates did not significantly differ to the parameter. Residual correlations of marbling score to other traits were reduced with comparing the parameters when using REML algorithm with assuming linear and normal distribution. This would be due to loss of information and therefore, reduced variation on marbling score. As concluding, genetic variation of marbling would be well defined if liability concepts were adopted on marbling score and implemented threshold mixed model on genetic parameter estimation in Korean cattle.

Assessment of Water Control Model for Tomato and Paprika in the Greenhouse Using the Penman-Monteith Model (Penman-Monteith을 이용한 토마토와 파프리카의 증발산 모델 평가)

  • Somnuek, Siriluk;Hong, Youngsin;Kim, Minyoung;Lee, Sanggyu;Baek, Jeonghyun;Kwak, Kangsu;Lee, Hyondong;Lee, Jaesu
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.209-218
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigated actual crop evapotranspiration (ETc) of tomato and paprika planted in test beds of the greenhouse. Crop water requirement (CWR) is the amount of water required to compensate ETc loss from the crop. The main objectives of the study are to assess whether the actual crop watering (ACW) was adequate CWR of tomato and paprika and which amount of ACW should be irrigated to each crop. ETc was estimated using the Penman-Monteith model (P-M) for each crop. ACW was calculated from the difference of amount of nutrient supply water and amount of nutrient drainage water. ACW and CWR of each crop were determined, compared and assessed. Results indicated CWR-tomato was around 100 to 1,200 ml/day, while CWR-paprika ranged from 100 to 500 ml/day. Comparison of ACW and CWR of each crop found that the difference of ACW and CWR are fluctuated following day of planting (DAP). However, the differences could divide into two phases, first the amount of ACWs of each crop are less than CWR in the initial phase (60 DAP) around 500 ml/day and 91 ml/day, respectively. Then, ACWs of each crop are greater than the CWR after 60 DAP until the end of cultivation approximately 400 ml/day in tomato and 178 ml/day in paprika. ETc assessment is necessary to correctly quantify crop irrigation water needs and it is an accurate short-term estimation of CWR in greenhouse for optimal irrigation scheduling. Thus, reducing ACW of tomato and paprika in the greenhouse is a recommendation. The amount of ACW of tomato should be applied from 100 to 1,200 ml/day and paprika is 100 to 500 ml/day depend on DAP.

Significance of brain magnetic resonance imaging(MRI) in the assessment of occupational manganese exposure (직업적 망간 폭로에 있어서 뇌자기공명영상의 의의)

  • 정해관
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.14-30
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    • 1998
  • Manganese is an essential element in the body. It is mainly deposited in the liver and to a lesser degree in the basal ganglia of the brain and eliminated through the bile duct. Rapid turnover of managanese in the body makes it difficult to evaluate the manganese exposure in workers, esecially in those with irregular or intermittent exposure, like welders. Therefore, conventional biomarkers, including blood and urine manganese can provide only a limited information about the long-tern or cumulative exposure to manganese. Introduction of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) made a progress in the assessment of manganese exposure in the medical conditions related to manganese accumulation, e. g. hepatic failure and long-term total parenteral nutrition. Manganese shortens spin-lattice(T1) relaxation time on MRI due to its paramagnetic property, resulting in high signal intensity (HSI) on T1-weighted image(T1W1) of MRI. Manganese deposition in the brain, therefore, can be visualizedas an HSI in the globus pallidus, the substantia nigra, the putamen and the pituitary. clinical and epidemiologic studies regarding the MRI findings in the cases of occupational and non-occupational manganese exposure were reviewed. relationships between HSI on T1W1 of MRI and age, gender, occupational manganese exposure, and neurological dysfunction were analysed. Relationships betwen biological exposure indices and HSI on MRE werealso reviewed. Literatures were reviewed to establish the relationships between HSI, Manganese deposition in the brain, pathologic findings, and neurological dysfunction. HSI on T1W1 of MRI reflects regional manganese deposition in the brain. This relationship enables an estimation of regional manganese deposition in the brain by analysing MR signal intensity. Manganese deposition in the brain can induce a neuronal loss in the basal ganglia but functional abnormality is supposed to be related to the cumulative exposure of manganese in the brain, use of brain MRI for the assessment of exposure in a group of workers seems to be hardly rationalized, while ti can be a useful adjunct for the evaluation of manganese exposure int he cases with suspected manganese-related health problems.

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Evaluation of the Satellite-based Air Temperature for All Sky Conditions Using the Automated Mountain Meteorology Station (AMOS) Records: Gangwon Province Case Study (산악기상관측정보를 이용한 위성정보 기반의 전천후 기온 자료의 평가 - 강원권역을 중심으로)

  • Jang, Keunchang;Won, Myoungsoo;Yoon, Sukhee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2017
  • Surface air temperature ($T_{air}$) is a key variable for the meteorology and climatology, and is a fundamental factor of the terrestrial ecosystem functions. Satellite remote sensing from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides an opportunity to monitor the $T_{air}$. However, the several problems such as frequent cloud cover and mountainous region can result in substantial retrieval error and signal loss in MODIS $T_{air}$. In this study, satellite-based $T_{air}$ was estimated under both clear and cloudy sky conditions in Gangwon Province using Aqua MODIS07 temperature profile product (MYD07_L2) and GCOM-W1 Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) brightness temperature ($T_b$) at 37 GHz frequency, and was compared with the measurements from the Automated Mountain Meteorology Stations (AMOS). The application of ambient temperature lapse rate was performed to improve the retrieval accuracy in mountainous region, which showed the improvement of estimation accuracy approximately 4% of RMSE. A simple pixel-wise regression method combining synergetic information from MYD07_L2 $T_{air}$ and AMSR2 $T_b$ was applied to estimate surface $T_{air}$ for all sky conditions. The $T_{air}$ retrievals showed favorable agreement in comparison with AMOS data (r=0.80, RMSE=7.9K), though the underestimation was appeared in winter season. Substantial $T_{air}$ retrievals were estimated 61.4% (n=2,657) for cloudy sky conditions. The results presented in this study indicate that the satellite remote sensing can produce the surface $T_{air}$ at the complex mountainous region for all sky conditions.