• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term memory

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Prediction of Urban Flood Extent by LSTM Model and Logistic Regression (LSTM 모형과 로지스틱 회귀를 통한 도시 침수 범위의 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun Il;Han, Kun Yeun;Lee, Jae Yeong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.273-283
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    • 2020
  • Because of climate change, the occurrence of localized and heavy rainfall is increasing. It is important to predict floods in urban areas that have suffered inundation in the past. For flood prediction, not only numerical analysis models but also machine learning-based models can be applied. The LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural network used in this study is appropriate for sequence data, but it demands a lot of data. However, rainfall that causes flooding does not appear every year in a single urban basin, meaning it is difficult to collect enough data for deep learning. Therefore, in addition to the rainfall observed in the study area, the observed rainfall in another urban basin was applied in the predictive model. The LSTM neural network was used for predicting the total overflow, and the result of the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was applied as target data. The prediction of the inundation map was performed by using logistic regression; the independent variable was the total overflow and the dependent variable was the presence or absence of flooding in each grid. The dependent variable of logistic regression was collected through the simulation results of a two-dimensional flood model. The input data of the two-dimensional flood model were the overflow at each manhole calculated by the SWMM. According to the LSTM neural network parameters, the prediction results of total overflow were compared. Four predictive models were used in this study depending on the parameter of the LSTM. The average RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) for verification and testing was 1.4279 ㎥/s, 1.0079 ㎥/s for the four LSTM models. The minimum RMSE of the verification and testing was calculated as 1.1655 ㎥/s and 0.8797 ㎥/s. It was confirmed that the total overflow can be predicted similarly to the SWMM simulation results. The prediction of inundation extent was performed by linking the logistic regression with the results of the LSTM neural network, and the maximum area fitness was 97.33 % when more than 0.5 m depth was considered. The methodology presented in this study would be helpful in improving urban flood response based on deep learning methodology.

A study on the Linkage of Volatility in Stock Markets under Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기하에서 주식시장 변동성의 연관성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2014
  • This study is to examine the linkage of volatility between changes in the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy. The results were as follows: First, autocorrelation or serial correlation did not exist in the classic RS model, but long-term memory was present in the modified RS model. Second, unit root did not exist in the unit root test for all periods, and the series were a stable explanatory power and a long-term memory with the normal conditions in the ARFIMA model. Third, in the multivariate asymmetric BEKK and VAR model before the financial crisis, it showed that there was a strong influence of the own market of Taiwan and UK in the conditional mean equation, and a strong spillover effect from Japan to India, from Taiwan to China(Korea, US), from US(Japan) to UK in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, GARCH showed a strong spillover effect that indicated the same direction as the result of ARCH coefficient of the market itself. Asymmetric effects in three home markets and between markets existed. Fourth, after the financial crisis, in the conditional mean equation, only the domestic market in Taiwan showed strong influences, and strong spillover effects existed from India to US, from Taiwan to Japan, from Korea to Germany in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, strong spillover effects were the same as the result of the pre-crisis and asymmetric effect in the domestic market in UK was present, and one-way asymmetric effect existed in Germany from Taiwan. Therefore, the results of this study presented the linkage between the volatilities of the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy, observing and confirming the asymmetric reactions and return(volatility) spillover effects between the stock market of India and other countries.

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Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.

LSTM Based Prediction of Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature Using Meteorological Data (기상 데이터를 활용한 LSTM 기반의 해양 혼합층 수온 예측)

  • Ko, Kwan-Seob;Kim, Young-Won;Byeon, Seong-Hyeon;Lee, Soo-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.603-614
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    • 2021
  • Recently, the surface temperature in the seas around Korea has been continuously rising. This temperature rise causes changes in fishery resources and affects leisure activities such as fishing. In particular, high temperatures lead to the occurrence of red tides, causing severe damage to ocean industries such as aquaculture. Meanwhile, changes in sea temperature are closely related to military operation to detect submarines. This is because the degree of diffraction, refraction, or reflection of sound waves used to detect submarines varies depending on the ocean mixed layer. Currently, research on the prediction of changes in sea water temperature is being actively conducted. However, existing research is focused on predicting only the surface temperature of the ocean, so it is difficult to identify fishery resources according to depth and apply them to military operations such as submarine detection. Therefore, in this study, we predicted the temperature of the ocean mixed layer at a depth of 38m by using temperature data for each water depth in the upper mixed layer and meteorological data such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, and sunlight that are related to the surface temperature. The data used are meteorological data and sea temperature data by water depth observed from 2016 to 2020 at the IEODO Ocean Research Station. In order to increase the accuracy and efficiency of prediction, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), which is known to be suitable for time series data among deep learning techniques, was used. As a result of the experiment, in the daily prediction, the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of the model using temperature, atmospheric pressure, and sunlight data together was 0.473. On the other hand, the RMSE of the model using only the surface temperature was 0.631. These results confirm that the model using meteorological data together shows better performance in predicting the temperature of the upper ocean mixed layer.

Application of deep learning method for decision making support of dam release operation (댐 방류 의사결정지원을 위한 딥러닝 기법의 적용성 평가)

  • Jung, Sungho;Le, Xuan Hien;Kim, Yeonsu;Choi, Hyungu;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1095-1105
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    • 2021
  • The advancement of dam operation is further required due to the upcoming rainy season, typhoons, or torrential rains. Besides, physical models based on specific rules may sometimes have limitations in controlling the release discharge of dam due to inherent uncertainty and complex factors. This study aims to forecast the water level of the nearest station to the dam multi-timestep-ahead and evaluate the availability when it makes a decision for a release discharge of dam based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) of deep learning. The LSTM model was trained and tested on eight data sets with a 1-hour temporal resolution, including primary data used in the dam operation and downstream water level station data about 13 years (2009~2021). The trained model forecasted the water level time series divided by the six lead times: 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18-hours, and compared and analyzed with the observed data. As a result, the prediction results of the 1-hour ahead exhibited the best performance for all cases with an average accuracy of MAE of 0.01m, RMSE of 0.015 m, and NSE of 0.99, respectively. In addition, as the lead time increases, the predictive performance of the model tends to decrease slightly. The model may similarly estimate and reliably predicts the temporal pattern of the observed water level. Thus, it is judged that the LSTM model could produce predictive data by extracting the characteristics of complex hydrological non-linear data and can be used to determine the amount of release discharge from the dam when simulating the operation of the dam.

Oral Administration of Gintonin Attenuates Cholinergic Impairments by Scopolamine, Amyloid-β Protein, and Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease

  • Kim, Hyeon-Joong;Shin, Eun-Joo;Lee, Byung-Hwan;Choi, Sun-Hye;Jung, Seok-Won;Cho, Ik-Hyun;Hwang, Sung-Hee;Kim, Joon Yong;Han, Jung-Soo;Chung, ChiHye;Jang, Choon-Gon;Rhim, Hyewon;Kim, Hyoung-Chun;Nah, Seung-Yeol
    • Molecules and Cells
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    • v.38 no.9
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    • pp.796-805
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    • 2015
  • Gintonin is a novel ginseng-derived lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) receptor ligand. Oral administration of gintonin ameliorates learning and memory dysfunctions in Alzheimer's disease (AD) animal models. The brain cholinergic system plays a key role in cognitive functions. The brains of AD patients show a reduction in acetylcholine concentration caused by cholinergic system impairments. However, little is known about the role of LPA in the cholinergic system. In this study, we used gintonin to investigate the effect of LPA receptor activation on the cholinergic system in vitro and in vivo using wild-type and AD animal models. Gintonin induced $[Ca^{2+}]_i $ transient in cultured mouse hippocampal neural progenitor cells (NPCs). Gintonin-mediated $[Ca^{2+}]_i $ transients were linked to stimulation of acetylcholine release through LPA receptor activation. Oral administration of gintonin-enriched fraction (25, 50, or 100 mg/kg, 3 weeks) significantly attenuated scopolamine-induced memory impairment. Oral administration of gintonin (25 or 50 mg/kg, 1 2 weeks) also significantly attenuated amyloid-${\beta}$ protein ($A{\beta}$)-induced cholinergic dysfunctions, such as decreased acetylcholine concentration, decreased choline acetyltransferase (ChAT) activity and immunoreactivity, and increased acetylcholine esterase (AChE) activity. In a transgenic AD mouse model, long-term oral administration of gintonin (25 or 50 mg/kg, 3 months) also attenuated AD-related cholinergic impairments. In this study, we showed that activation of G protein-coupled LPA receptors by gintonin is coupled to the regulation of cholinergic functions. Furthermore, this study showed that gintonin could be a novel agent for the restoration of cholinergic system damages due to $A{\beta}$ and could be utilized for AD prevention or therapy.

Development of Learning Algorithm using Brain Modeling of Hippocampus for Face Recognition (얼굴인식을 위한 해마의 뇌모델링 학습 알고리즘 개발)

  • Oh, Sun-Moon;Kang, Dae-Seong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.42 no.5 s.305
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we propose the face recognition system using HNMA(Hippocampal Neuron Modeling Algorithm) which can remodel the cerebral cortex and hippocampal neuron as a principle of a man's brain in engineering, then it can learn the feature-vector of the face images very fast and construct the optimized feature each image. The system is composed of two parts. One is feature-extraction and the other is teaming and recognition. In the feature extraction part, it can construct good-classified features applying PCA(Principal Component Analysis) and LDA(Linear Discriminants Analysis) in order. In the learning part, it cm table the features of the image data which are inputted according to the order of hippocampal neuron structure to reaction-pattern according to the adjustment of a good impression in the dentate gyrus region and remove the noise through the associate memory in the CA3 region. In the CA1 region receiving the information of the CA3, it can make long-term memory learned by neuron. Experiments confirm the each recognition rate, that are face changes, pose changes and low quality image. The experimental results show that we can compare a feature extraction and learning method proposed in this paper of any other methods, and we can confirm that the proposed method is superior to existing methods.

Implementation of Specific Target Detection and Tracking Technique using Re-identification Technology based on public Multi-CCTV (공공 다중CCTV 기반에서 재식별 기술을 활용한 특정대상 탐지 및 추적기법 구현)

  • Hwang, Joo-Sung;Nguyen, Thanh Hai;Kang, Soo-Kyung;Kim, Young-Kyu;Kim, Joo-Yong;Chung, Myoung-Sug;Lee, Jooyeoun
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2022
  • The government is making great efforts to prevent crimes such as missing children by using public CCTVs. However, there is a shortage of operating manpower, weakening of concentration due to long-term concentration, and difficulty in tracking. In addition, applying real-time object search, re-identification, and tracking through a deep learning algorithm showed a phenomenon of increased parameters and insufficient memory for speed reduction due to complex network analysis. In this paper, we designed the network to improve speed and save memory through the application of Yolo v4, which can recognize real-time objects, and the application of Batch and TensorRT technology. In this thesis, based on the research on these advanced algorithms, OSNet re-ranking and K-reciprocal nearest neighbor for re-identification, Jaccard distance dissimilarity measurement algorithm for correlation, etc. are developed and used in the solution of CCTV national safety identification and tracking system. As a result, we propose a solution that can track objects by recognizing and re-identification objects in real-time within situation of a Korean public multi-CCTV environment through a set of algorithm combinations.

Qualitative Analysis of Positive Science Experiences in the Memory of Pre-service Elementary School Teachers (초등 예비교사의 기억 속 긍정적 과학 경험 사례에 대한 질적 분석)

  • Lim, Sung-Man;Shin, Jung-Yun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.299-309
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to categorize specific factors and characteristics of positive science experience by qualitatively analyzing the positive science experience cases in the memories of pre-service elementary school teachers. For this purpose, 101 essays written by pre-service teachers on the theme of 'my enjoyable science class experience' were analyzed. The collected data were analyzed using an inductive analysis method, and as a result, the characteristics of positive science experience cases in the memories of pre-service teachers were categorized into 4 categories and 12 topic groups. Specifically, 'experience of exploratory activities using special materials', such as long-term raising and observation of animals and plants, experiments using edible materials, and using special experimental tools had a positive effect on scientific experience. In addition, 'experience of activities emphasizing scientific inquiry' such as emphasizing observation activities, experiments accompanied by clear experimental results, making activities, and using various materials also had a positive effect on science experience. In addition, 'student-centered activity experience' such as strengthening student autonomy, emphasizing collaboration between students, and performing science activities outside of the curriculum also had a positive influence on the science experience. Lastly, 'positive influence of teachers', such as teachers' encouragement and enthusiasm, helped to positively recognize science.

Analysis of Brain Activation on the Self-Regulation Process in College Life Science Learning between Biology Major and Non-Major Students (생물전공 대학생과 비전공 대학생의 생명과학 학습에서 자기조절 과정의 두뇌 활성 분석)

  • Su-Min Lee;Sang-Hee Park;Seung-Hyuk Kwon;Yong-Ju Kwon
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.255-265
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and compare brain activation that appears in the self-regulation process of biology major and non-major college students in life science learning. The self-regulation task implemented a life science learning situation with the concept of biological classification. The brain activation of college students was measured and analyzed by fNIRS. In the assimilation process, bilateral FP and left DLPFC show significant activation, and the two groups show a difference in the left OFC activation related to motivation and reward. In the conflict process, the left DLPFC shows significantly lower activation in common, and the two groups show a difference in activation between BA 46, which is related to recent memory, and BA 47, which is related to long-term memory. In the accommodation process, a significantly high activation was found in right DLPFC in common, and the two groups show a difference in activation between right DLPFC and right FP. These areas are in the right frontal lobe area and are related to the understanding of life science knowledge. As a result of this study, it can be seen that the brain activation patterns of biology major and non-major college students are different in the self-regulation process. In addition, we will propose additional neurological studies on self-regulation and present systems and learning strategies that can be constructed in school settings.