• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term change

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An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

Water Quality and Chlorophyll-a at the Birth Stage of a Large Reclaimed Estuarine Lake in Korea (Lake Hwaong) (간척하구호 (화옹호) 태동기의 수질과 엽록소-a 변화)

  • Kim, Ho-Sub;Chung, Mi-Hee;Choi, Chung-Il;Hwang, Soon-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.4 s.105
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    • pp.455-462
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    • 2003
  • This study evaluated the change of water quality and chlorophyll - a at the birth stage of a large reclaimed estuarine lake (Lake Hwaong) of which the dike was finally constructed in March, 2002. Physico -chemical parameters and chlorophyll - a were investigated along a longitudinal transect, including 3 in-lake sites and 1 out-lake site from June to November, 2002. Salinity at all in-lake sites was over 21 psu during the study period, indicating that lake is still in the seawater phase. Salinity was periodically diluted at times when precipitation was high, especially in August. Chemocline was established in July near the dam site, and correspondingly vertical profile of dissolved oxygen was very clear during that Period. Total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at all lake sites were in the eutrophic range, and they were especially high at the stream inlet site. Nutrients concentration was not much varied vertically but significantly varied temporally, and correlated significantly with precipitation and chlorophyll-a concentration, indicating that inflowing water from the watershed seemed not to improve lake water by dilution but cause eutrophication of the lake, and thereby stimulate phytoplankton development. Based on the analyses of nutrient ratio (N/P) and trophic state deviation, both phosphorus and nitrogen appeared to limit phytoplankton growth in the lake. Phosphorus limitation appeared to be probable at all in-lake sites with being most severe at the stream inlet site. Nitrogen limitation seemed to occur at both in-lake and out-lake sites. These results indicate that in Lake Hwaong experiencing the very early stage of a reclaiming lake, water quality and phytoplankton development appear to be affect-ed largely by salinity and hydrology and nutrients from the inflowing water. Lake biogeochemistry is still very unstable, and thus further long-term study is necessary to understand the effects of seawater to freshwater conversion on lake biology and water chemistry.

Immediate effects of cigarette smoking on exercise in young adult smokers (젊은 성인 흡연자에게 흡연이 운동능에 미치는 즉시효과)

  • Park, In Won;Koh, Hyung Ki;Kang, Yoon Jung;Choi, Jae Sun;Yoo, Jee Hoon;Shin, Jong Wook;Lim, Seong-Yong;Choi, Byoung Whui;Seo, Seung Cheon;Na, Moon Jun;Hue, Sung Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.154-161
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    • 1997
  • Background : Although the long term adverse effects of cigarette smoking on health are well known, the acute possible detrimental effects of smoking on pulmonary or cardiovascular function, especially when these systems are stressed by the metabolic demands of exercise, have not been well studied The purpose of this study is to determine the acute action of cigarette smoking on cardiopulmonary function under stress. Method : Twenty -one healthy smoking subjects were studied. Before exrecise testing, history taking, physical examination and baseline studies, including CBC, chest PA, PFT and EKG, were done. The subjects performed an incremental bicycle exercise test to exhaustion on two occasions, one without smoking and the other after smoking 5 cigarettes/h for 2 hours. All indices of P.F.T. and bicycle ergometry were compared between before and after smoking. Results : 1. $VO_2$max and $O_2$ pulse showed significant decrease in smoking day. 2. Although there were no significant differences, anaerobic threshold showed a tendency of decrease and HRmax showed that of increase in smoking day. 3. P.F.T. and respiratory indices showed no significant change io smoking day. Conclusion : Cigarette smoking has immediate adverse effect, especially on the cardiovascular system rather than the respiratory system. These results would be due to the effect of elevated HbCO and/or impaired blood flow in response to the exercise stimulus.

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The Consolidation and Implementation of Green Infrastructure Policy in Urban Spatial Planning - Focused on the London Plan & the All London Green Grid - (그린 인프라스트럭처 정책의 확대와 적용 - 런던플랜과 런던 그린그리드를 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 2016
  • Strategies for parks and open spaces in the 21st century have moved from focusing on specific elements, such as quantitative growth and ecological and recreational aspects, to green infrastructure, which refers to a multi-functional network of open and green spaces offering a range of benefits. In the case of London, green infrastructure is realised as an integral part of urban infrastructure, involving physical and social infrastructure as well as practical spatial planning at the local level within statutory urban planning as part of a continuously developing green infrastructure framework with a theoretical basis. Taking this perspective, the present study looks at alterations to and developments in green infrastructure policies in the London Plan, the green grid framework as detailed in the city's strategic implementation of green infrastructure. Various trends and characteristics of the policies adopted in the London Plan and some implications are deduced, with three main results being identified. The first is a clear division of roles among the national government, Greater London Authority and borough councils, with local plans established under the guidance of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and the London Plan. Green infrastructure policies in the London Plan have been applied at a high rate in the boroughs' local plans, which leads to another, linked point. Secondly, green infrastructure policies and the green grid as an implementation framework have been consistently extended and developed through consolidating the London Plan, despite the change of government. Finally, in order to achieve the London Plan, the Mayor of London implemented policies by partnership and supporting programmes for London boroughs. Recently, the Seoul Metropolitan Authority introduced a parks and green spaces development policy, but the London case remains a good example; this is because green infrastructure policies in London were not a manifesto pledge but rather have been continuously and consistently advanced regardless of party politics and thus realised as long-term planning.

The effect of three different water temperatures in our research facility on Huanren brown frog (Rana huanrensis) egg's hatching rate, hatching periods, and larvae's growth (인위적으로 조성한 세 가지 수온이 계곡산개구리(Rana huanrensis) 알의 부화율, 부화기간 및 유생의 생장에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Na, Sumi;Shim, Jeong-eun;Kim, Hyun-jung;An, Chi-Kyung;Yi, Hoonbok
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.320-324
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    • 2015
  • This study was executed to know the effect of three differently controlled temperature conditions on Huanren brown frog (Rana huanrensis )'s growth in 2013. We've collected nine Huanren brown frog egg's sacs on Mt. Surak ($37^{\circ}40^{\prime}55.86^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$, $127^{\circ}05^{\prime}19.99^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$) in Seoul. We put those nine egg sacs in the controlled growth chambers under low temperature (LT, $5{\pm}2^{\circ}C$), medium temperature (MT, $10{\pm}2^{\circ}C$), and high temperature (HT, $13{\pm}2^{\circ}C$) conditions with three egg sacs, respectively. We measured the eggs' hatching rate, their hatching periods, and the size of the hatched individuals. The hatching rate was higher in MT (95.6%) and the rates of the other treatments were relatively lower but very similar such as LT (82.2%) and HT (82.6%). The three hatching periods were 10 days at HT, 14 days at MT and 23 days at LT. The body sizes of the hatched individuals were biggest at MT ($7.62{\pm}0.11mm$), smallest at LT ($6.82{\pm}0.10mm$) and medium at HT ($7.19{\pm}0.15mm$) (P-value ${\leq}0.0001$). From our results, we found that the various water temperatures could be very effective to Huanren brown frog eggs' hatch and growth including their body sizes. We suggest if we study more about the growth of Huanren brown adult frogs under similar temperature conditions for a long term period, it must be very helpful for conservation study about metamorphosis rate and size of adult frog as well as we could understand about the amphibians who are adapting to the climate change.

Toxic Impact Analysis by Exposure Duration of Dog Studies for Pesticides using in Korea (국내 사용농약의 노출 기간이 개의 독성반응에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Je Bong;Jeong, Mi-Hye;You, Are-Sun;Hong, Soonsung;Paik, Min-Kyoung;Oh, Jin-Ah;Park, Kyung Hun;Ihm, Yang Bin
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.350-358
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    • 2013
  • Both 13-week and 1-year studies in dog were required for pesticide registration in domestic pesticide control authority. It is raising issue up whether to request 1-year dog study of pesticides using non-food crop. So at this investigation, relevant toxicity test to establish acceptable daily intake (ADI), target organs, difference of no-observed adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) in 13-week and 1-year of 166 active ingredients are analyzed. The data were evaluated to determine if the 13-week dog study and the long term studies in two rodent species (mice and rats) without 1-year dog study were sufficient for the identification of NOAELs and lowest observed adverse effect levels (LOAELs) for the derivation of ADI. Toxicity end points and dose response data from 13 week and 1-year studies were compared. The analysis showed that 68 ADIs of the 166 pesticides were established from dog studies. Major target organs of dog studies were liver in 49 cases, body weight change in 21 cases, cholinesterase inhibition in 16 cases, and alteration in hematology in 14 cases. Similarity of target organ in 13-week and 1-year was 73%. 22 of 40 pesticides had similar critical effects regardless of duration and had NOAELs within a difference of 1.5-fold of each other. For the remaining 18 pesticides, 14 items had lower NOAELs in the 1-year study than 13-week study primarily due to dose selection and spacing. In only 10% of the cases were additional toxic effects identified in the 1-year study that were not observed in the 13-week study.

Construction Works at the Busan New Port on the Activity of Otters (부산신항 공사가 수달의 활동 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Han, Chang-Wook;Yoon, Myung-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.654-667
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    • 2012
  • To know the effect of construction works at the Busan New Port on the activity of otters, changes in the distribution of spraints were investigated at 5 areas(I-V) composed of 16 locations in 12 islands from 2003 to 2011. There were significant differences among the density of spraints at each area(P=0.0502), at each year(P=0.0040) and at each area during the study period(P=0.0005). The densities of spraints in the areas II (P=0.000) and IV (P=0.012) were significantly different according to whether the construction work was carried out or not at each area. It was found that the density of spraints in each area was affected by the disturbance with construction works or other factors inside and/or outside the area. The average density of spraints of the 5 areas had changed according to the process of the construction works as follows. In 2003-2005 when the construction work was proceeded mainly at the area IV, the average density of spraints of the 5 areas as well as the density in the area II increased annually, whereas the densities in the other 4 areas were low and relatively constant. This fact suggests that otters might have moved into the area II from outside the study area. In 2006-2009 when the construction works were carried out on a larger scale at the areas I, II and III, there was a little decrease in the average density of spraints during the latter two years, suggesting a little decrease in the activity of otters in the study area. As regards the density of spraints at each area, it decreased considerably in the area II, but increased fairly in the areas III and IV. Accordingly it was indicated that otters in the area II where the construction work was carried out since 2006 might have moved into the area IV with no work, and otters inhabiting the Jeodo, Geoje city, where the construction work was carried out at that time, might have moved into the area III with no work at the sea shore. In 2010-2011 when the construction works were conducted at all the areas on a fairly large scale, the average density of spraints of the 5 areas as well as the densities in the areas II, III and IV, decreased considerably compared to the those in the year 2009. This fact clearly indicates that the number of otters decreased owing to the multiple simultaneous works in this period. In conclusion, otters must be affected by the construction works at the study area, and their numbers might be decreased mainly due to the multiple simultaneous works, as well as by the long-term works resulting in the decrease of seashore, marine pollution, and reducing prey available.

The effects of mandibular setback osteotomy on the oropharyngeal airway space in mandibular prognathic patients (하악전돌 환자에서 하악골 후퇴수술이 기도공간에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyo-Young;Choi, Hyun-Gue;Kim, Eun-Kyung;Kim, Jong-Ghee
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.27 no.5 s.64
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    • pp.733-741
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    • 1997
  • As a result of surgical orthodontic treatment of mandibular prognathism, changes take place in the skeletal and soft orofacial components. Although some investigators had stated that permanent reduction of airway space was observed after mandibular setback surgery, it was not clear that this permanent reduction was sustained during long-term follow-up. The purpose of this study was to assess the changes in oropharyngeal airway space and soft tissue orofacial component following the mandibular setback surgery and during the follow-up period. The correlation between the changes of the oropharyngeal airway space and the changes of other soft tissue orofacial component was also assessed. The findings of this study were as follows ; 1. The oropharyngeal airway space area decreased following mandibular setback surgery for mandibular prognathism and continued to decrease during the follow-up period(p<0.05). 2. The pharyngeal depth at Xi point level and the 2nd cervical vertebra point level decreased after the surgery and remained during the follow-up period(p<0.05). The decrease of these pharyngeal depth was correlated with the decrease of oropharyngeal airway space area(p<0.01). 3. The decrease of pharyngeal depth at the 3rd and 4th cervical vertebra point level was not significant after the surgery and during the follow up period. 4. The hyoid bone moved downward after the surgery(p<0.05), but returned to its original position during the follow-up period. 5. The length & height of tongue and the Position of epiglottis base did not change significantly(p>0.05). 6. The soft palate was displaced posteriorly after the surgery and remained to its changed position during the follow-up period(p<0.05) due to posterior displacement of tongue. The changes of soft palate were significantly correlated with the decrease of oropharyngeal airway space area(p<0.01). 7. The narrowing of oropharyngeal airway space was due to the posterior displacement of tongue above the level of epiglottis tip. The posterior displacement of tongue following mandibular setback osteotomy remained during the follow-up period.

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THE EFFICACY AND SAFETY OF RISPERIDONE IN CHILD & ADOLESCENT PSYCHIATRIC INPATIENT (소아 청소년 정신과 입원 환자에서 Risperidone의 효과 및 안정성에 관한 연구)

  • Park Jeong-Hyun;Kim Boong-Nyun
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.239-250
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    • 2005
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was obtaining data on the efficacy and safety of risperidone in child and adolescent psychiatric patients. Method : Thirty one children and adolescents (males n=18, females n=13, age ranged from 5.4 to 17.3 years) treated with risperidone were selected among child and adolescent psychiatric inpatients of Seoul National University Hospital from January, 2001 to June, 2002, and charts for them were reviewed retrospectively. Results : The primary psychiatric disorders treated with risperidone were schizophrenia and other psychosis, bipolar I disorder with psychotic features, Tourette's disorder, autism spectrum disorders, mixed receptive and expressive language disorder, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder. twelve of these had comorbid mental retardation. Primary target symptoms of risperidone were psychotic symptoms (n=13 or $41.9\%$), behavioral symptoms (n=10 or $32.3\%$) including aggression, impulsivity, hyperactivity, stereotypy nonresponsive to other psychiatric treatments, and chronic and severe tics (n=8, $25.8\%$). The efficacy of risperidone was measured by clinical global improvement (CGI) for target symptoms, $67.7\%$ of subjects showed moderate or marked improvements and its therapeutic effect appeared to be maintained during at least 7.5 months. Mean daily dosage of risperidone was $0.05{\pm}0.01mg/kg$, the group with psychotic symptoms had significantly higher mean daily dosage (0.07mg/kg) compared with other two groups (0.04mg/kg) with behavioral symptoms or tics. A variety of adverse events were reported in this study : weight gain (n=23) most commonly reported, extrapyramidal symptoms (n=15), autonomic symptoms (n=6), sedation (n=5) and symptoms related to hyperprolactinemia (n=2) etc. Although there was no drug change related to the adverse events of risperidone, and $90\%$ of subjects at their last visits were maintained on it, thus its tolerability appeared good. Conclusions Results suggest that risperidone may be relatively safe and effective drug in managing a wide variety of child and adolescent psychopathologies such as psychotic symptoms, behavioral symptoms including aggression, impulsivity, hyperactivity and stereotypy nonresponsive to other psychiatric treatments, and chronic and severe tics. Controlled and long-term studies of efficacy and safety of risperidone treatment for children and adolescents are recommended in the future.

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Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2016 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2016년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2017
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2016. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of flow, heat and mass transfer, the reduction of pollutant exhaust gas, cooling and heating, the renewable energy system and the flow around buildings. CFD schemes were used more for all research areas. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results of the long-term performance variation of the plate-type enthalpy exchange element made of paper, design optimization of an extruded-type cooling structure for reducing the weight of LED street lights, and hot plate welding of thermoplastic elastomer packing. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, the heat transfer characteristics of a finned-tube heat exchanger in a PCM (phase change material) thermal energy storage system, influence of flow boiling heat transfer on fouling phenomenon in nanofluids, and PCM at the simultaneous charging and discharging condition were studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, one-dimensional flow network model and porous-media model, and R245fa in a plate-shell heat exchanger were studied. (3) Various studies were published in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration/energy system, system control. In the refrigeration cycle category, subjects include mobile cold storage heat exchanger, compressor reliability, indirect refrigeration system with $CO_2$ as secondary fluid, heat pump for fuel-cell vehicle, heat recovery from hybrid drier and heat exchangers with two-port and flat tubes. In the alternative refrigeration/energy system category, subjects include membrane module for dehumidification refrigeration, desiccant-assisted low-temperature drying, regenerative evaporative cooler and ejector-assisted multi-stage evaporation. In the system control category, subjects include multi-refrigeration system control, emergency cooling of data center and variable-speed compressor control. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, fifteenth studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energies, etc. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which could be help for improving the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the analyses of indoor thermal environments controlled by portable cooler, the effects of outdoor wind pressure in airflow at high-rise buildings, window air tightness related to the filling piece shapes, stack effect in core type's office building and the development of a movable drawer-type light shelf with adjustable depth of the reflector. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy consumption analysis in office building, the prediction of exit air temperature of horizontal geothermal heat exchanger, LS-SVM based modeling of hot water supply load for district heating system, the energy saving effect of ERV system using night purge control method and the effect of strengthened insulation level to the building heating and cooling load.