• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.87-117
• /
• 1985

In Principle, the distriction should be understood between projections and forecasts. When the author or user of a projection is willing to describe it as indicating the most likely population at a give date, then he has made a forecast Population change since 1 960 has been reviewed briefly in order to forecast the population of Korea in the year 2,000 which is a leading factor in long term national development plan for which Korea Institute for Population and Health (KIPH) has been participated since 1983. The author of this paper introduced the population forecast prepared for the long term national development plan and an attempt of comparisons with other forecasts such as D.P. Smith's, T. Frejka's, Economic Planning Board's (EPB), UN's and S.B. Lee's was made. Those six forecasts of Korean future population in year 2,000 varried from 48.5 million to 50.0 million due to the base population and assumption of fertility and mortality however the range of total population size is not large enough. Taking four forecasts such as KIPH, EPB, UN, and Lee based on 1980 population census results and latest data of fertility and mortality, KIPH and UN forecast are close in total population size even though there was a slight difference in fertility and mortality assumptions. The smallest size of total population was shown by S.B. Lee (see Table 13) although the difference between KIPH and Lee was approximately one million which is two percent of total population in year 2,000. As a summary of conclusion the author pointed out that one can take anyone of forecasts prepared by different body because size and proportion wise of the Korean population until early I 990s can not be different much and new population projections must be provided by using 1985 population census data and other latest fertility and mortality information coflected by Korea Institute for Population and Health and Economic Planning Board in forth comming year.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.7-14
• /
• 2003

Statistics shows that 80% of freeway users travel less than 50km, and only 8% of them do over 100km. It means that the freeway is used for commuting. As a result, the freeway is not used efficiently and social cost is high. The current toll system aims for the efficient usage of the freeway by restraining short-distance trips and inducing long-distance ones. Thus, policies such as minimum toll system and discount for long-distance trips have been carried out. However. these two policies take no account of demand management between the freeway and alternative roads. They merely consider the compensation for charge on users, so the assessment of discount rate and distinction of distance are not reasonable. Consequently, not only the effective demand management but also the evaluation of those policies has been difficult to be achieved. The objective of this paper is to analyze those problematic policies and to establish a reasonable and improved toll system. In addition, this study presents the methodology to minimize social cost, which can be achieved by reducing short trips and encouraging long ones on the freeway. A new methodology of freeway toll system is applied and the results are presented.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
• /
• v.8 no.7
• /
• pp.289-302
• /
• 2019

Structural change of time series means that the distribution of observations is relatively stable in the period of constituting the entire time series data, but shows a sudden change of the distribution characteristic at a specific time point. Within a non-stationary long-term time series, it is important to determine in a timely manner whether the change in short-term trends is transient or structurally changed. This is because it is necessary to always detect the change of the time series trend and to take appropriate measures to cope with the change. In this paper, we propose a method for decision makers to easily grasp the structural changes of time series by visualizing the test results based on the unit root test. Particularly, it is possible to grasp the short-term structural changes even in the long-term time series through the method of dividing the time series and testing it.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
• /
• v.31 no.6
• /
• pp.509-521
• /
• 2020

This study aims to propose a mid- to long-term fostering plan for the hydrogen industry customized to Changwon City by reviewing the government's policy and the status of the domestic and foreign hydrogen industry. The adopted methodologies were policy analysis, literature review, field investigation, and committee operation that could consider institutions, knowledge (technology), and networking between activity subjects. The short-term projects and long-term projects for the fostering plan are established using these methodologies. The short-term projects were structured so that the ongoing hydrogen industry fostering plan leads to a successful result, and the hydrogen mobility field is expanded to not only land vehicles but also marine and air vehicles. The long-term projects consist of a high proportion of the hydrogen utilization field to take advantage of the industrial strength of Changwon City, and a support system for new and turning companies for localization of parts was added to provide industrial competitiveness.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
• /
• v.52 no.2
• /
• pp.153-169
• /
• 2022

With the extension of the average life span and the rapid aging of the population, defining elderly population as a single group is difficult as the physical, economic and social conditions of individual have become different. Therefore, policies that take into account the characteristics of each group are required. The purpose of this study is to classify individual travel types and to analyze the characteristics of each travel type, based on individual public transportation trajectory data as known as smart card data. Among the four classified types, the long-distance low-frequency stay type and the short-range medium-frequency mobile type show external activity traffic characteristics for retirement leisure, while the long-distance high-frequency stay type and the long-distance high-frequency mobile group include regular commuting. Traffic variability and residence areas of stay were identified in terms of each classified travel type. The results of this study provide the important suggestions for establishing a transportation policy that takes into account the characteristics of each type of elderly population in Seoul.

• Journal of the Korean BIBLIA Society for library and Information Science
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.119-135
• /
• 2009

The purpose of this research is to propose the mediumand long term plan for the development of new branch libraries of the National Library of Korea. As the most appropriate strategic direction of planning the branches, proposed is the "bipolar and multidirectional" model which means the establishment of the only one branch library of the National Library of Korea and then, if necessary, more than one national libraries later. In this research, it is suggested that the National Library of Korea as a national library take a leading role for the development of nationwide library system, develop a sustainable medium- and long-term plan for securing the appropriate budget, human resources, and legal support, and help all kinds of libraries improve the level of services.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.40 no.2
• /
• pp.105-126
• /
• 2009

This study applies the cointegration theory to analyse the causality of the prices between imported fisheries and domestic fisheries in distribution channel. We've focused on the prices of import, wholesale and retail about the frozen Alaska pollack, hairtail and croaker which take up high portion and are popular among most of the consumers. In process of analysis, the unit root test was adopted to find the stability of time series data prior to the cointegration test. If the time series data was found as stable one in unit root test, we should analyse the VAR model. If unstable, the cointegratioin test was adopeted to find the long-run equilibrium relationship between the data. When the long-run equilibrium relationship was found among the price of the import, wholesale and retail price, the VECM model was adoped. If not, the differenced VAR model was adopted. The main findings of this study could be summarized as follows ; First, according to the result of the analysis on VAR model, time series data of frozen Alaska pollack was found as stable and has causality relationship and close effect was existing among the import, wholesale and retail price. Second, the data of frozen hairtail was found as an unstable one in unit root test and the result of cointegration test showed the long-run equilibrium relationship at lag 1. From the results of VECM model, we could find that the coefficient of error correction is effective, and the sign is negative(-). It means that the existence of adjustment tendency to long-run equilibrium after a short-run deviation. But the short-run causality of the prices were not found except the price of wholesale. Third, according to the results of differenced VAR model, data from frozen croaker did not have the stability and long-run equilibrium. Moreover, it was found that the import price has a weak causality on the retail price. Because of having difficulties in collecting data, the result of this paper could not explain the relationship among the prices of import, wholesale and retail perfectly. However, it more or less contributed to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting in academic research and provided a useful guide for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.

• Journal of Korean Physical Therapy Science
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.21-32
• /
• 2011

Objective: This study was conducted to describe physical therapists' attitudes and beliefs towards Korean Government's National Long Term Care Insurance Program implemented last July 2008. Design: A survey research. Methodology: Participants were 143 physical therapists working in General Hospitals or University Hospitals in Busan, Korea. Each of the participants completed a questionnaire which was comprised of 22 questions. Among the 22 questions, 7 of these were independent variables such as gender, age, career, etc. while 15 of these questions were dependent variables such as the subject's expectations and reactions on the said program, opinions of the participants on the impact of the program to old people's families and relatives, participant's sentiments on social effects of this program to the society, etc. Data collection was conducted from the $20^{th}$ of July to the $5^{th}$ of August, 2008. Data were analyzed by Chi-square test, frequency and cross tabs using SPSS/PC program. Results: Based on the survey conducted, it showed that 50.3% were female respondents, 53.8% were on their twenties, 31.5% of the total respondents were married and that a percentage of 82.4% had working experiences below 10 years. About 80.4% of respondents were satisfied of their jobs and 32.4%of the respondents graduated from three - year college degree, 49.3% of the respondents graduated from four-year college degree. 95.1% of the total respondents knew the existence of the national long term care insurance program of the government and almost 78% got the information of the said program via internet, news paper or T.V. About 86% of the respondents believe that there will be future improvements in the quality of life in Korea through the said program and 82% said that there will be an increase sense of responsibility among family members to take care of their old relatives. 67.2 % of respondents believe that problems regarding old people will be solved through the government's national long term care insurance program. In aspect of Physical Therapy, 50% of the respondents expected generation of more jobs especially to physical therapists and 95% of the respondents want to work in any position in the said program especially those are more experienced ones. Conclusion: Physical Therapists in Korea are aware of the existence of the National Long Term Care Insurance Program of the Korean Government. Based on the gathered results from the survey, many experienced physical therapists of the country wanted to acquire positions in the said program especially that their expertise are needed in the said field. Through this study, it is evident that many physical therapists of the country have positive vibes on the said program and are optimistic on the outcomes of the said insurance program.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.201-229
• /
• 2019

This paper estimates the effects of generation mix changes in the $7^{th}$ and $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Long-term Power Supply and Demand from two aspects: economic efficiency through electricity prices and environmental performance through $CO_2$ and air pollutants(NOx, SOx, PM) emissions. Particularly, we examined additional generation mix conversion paths that take into account the trade-off between economic efficiency and environmental performance through scenario analysis. According to our results, the conversion from the $7^{th}$ plan to the $8^{th}$ plan should increase the electricity prices in the mid- and long-term, while reducing GHG and air pollutants emissions at the same time. The alternative generation mix that combines $7^{th}$ and $8^{th}$ plans shows that there exists a path to mitigate the trade-off between economic and environmental in the long-term. It will be next to impossible to derive a optimal generation mix that simultaneously considers the core values, such as supply stability, environmental performance, economic efficiency, energy safety and energy security, when establishing the power supply and demand plan. However, by exploring the effects of various generation mix paths and suggesting near-optimal paths, people can best choose their direction after weighhing all the paths when deciding on a forward-looking generation mix in the long term.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
• /
• v.7 no.3
• /
• pp.41-46
• /
• 2008

Generally optical components are fabricated by grinding, lapping and polishing processes. Those processes take long time to obtain optical high surface quality. In the case of large optical components, the on-machine measurement is strongly recommended because the workpiece is fragile and difficult to set up for fabricating and measuring. This paper is concerned about a swing-arm mechanism which can be used for on-machine measurement of a surface profile with a sensing probe end-effect, and also for grinding or lapping the surface with a corresponding tool. The measuring accuracy and uncertainty using a swing arm type profilometer have been studied. The experimental results show that this method is useful specially in lapping process with the accuracy of $5{\mu}m$. Those inspection data are provided for correcting the residual figuring error in next processes.